Trucks carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles rumbled over forest roads, atomic-powered submarines set sail from Arctic and Pacific ports, and crews scrambled into warplanes as Russia and neighboring Belarus held the final stage of their joint nuclear drills Thursday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the maneuvers in a video call with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko. “The use of nuclear weapons is an extreme, exceptional measure for ensuring the national security of our states,” Putin said, according to AP.
Lukashenko earlier inspected Russian short-range nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missiles at a military unit involved in the drills and declared: “I dreamed about this machine a long time ago.”
The three-day drills that began Tuesday come amid a surge in Ukrainian drone strikes. including on Moscow’s suburbs that killed three people and damaged several buildings and industrial facilities. The strikes made it harder for officials in the Kremlin to cast the conflict in Ukraine — now in its fifth year — as something so distant that it doesn’t affect the daily routines of Russian civilians.
Drills involve wide array of nuclear weapons
Russia’s Defense Ministry said the exercise involved 64,000 troops, over 200 missile launchers, more than 140 aircraft, 73 surface warships and 13 submarines, including eight armed with nuclear-tipped ICBMs. The drills focused on the “preparation and use of nuclear forces under the threat of aggression,” it said.
The maneuvers also practice cooperation with Belarus, an ally that hosts Russian nuclear weapons. Russian arsenals in Belarus include its latest intermediate range nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system.
A Yars ICBM is seen during drills of Russia's nuclear forces in Belarus (Russian defense ministry).Along with nuclear-tipped ground- and submarine-launched ICBMs, the maneuvers featured a broad assortment of short- and medium-range weapons.
Unlike the intercontinental missiles that can destroy entire cities, tactical nuclear weapons intended for use against troops on the battlefield are less powerful. They include aerial bombs and warheads for short- and medium-range missiles and artillery munitions.
The Defense Ministry said the Russian armed forces test-fired Yars and Sineva ICBMs, as well as medium-range sea-launched Zircon and air-launched Kinzhal missiles, noting that all missiles hit their designated practice targets. Belarusian troops test-fired a short-range Iskander ballistic missile inside Russia.
Putin has repeatedly reminded the world about Moscow’s nuclear arsenals since the war in Ukraine started in February 2022 to deter the West from ramping up support for Kyiv.
In 2024, the Kremlin adopted a revised nuclear doctrine, noting that any nation’s conventional attack on Russia that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. That threat was clearly aimed at discouraging the West from allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with longer-range weapons and appears to significantly lower the threshold for the possible use of Moscow’s nuclear arsenal.
Russia's new Sarmat ICBM is being test launched at an unspecified location in Russia (Russian defense ministry).The revised doctrine also placed Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella. Putin has said that Moscow will retain control of its nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus, which borders Ukraine and NATO members Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, but would allow its ally to select the targets in case of conflict.
Drills come as Ukrainian drones spotted in the Baltics
The maneuvers are held amid an increase in drone activity in the Baltic nations. On Tuesday, a NATO jet shot down a Ukrainian drone over southern Estonia. Ukraine apologized for that “unintended incident,” without specifying what had happened.
On Wednesday, an emergency announcement about a drone flying over Belarus prompted residents of the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius, including top officials and lawmakers, to take shelter and led to a brief closure of its airport.
Ukrainian drones targeting Russia’s Baltic ports and energy facilities have recently crossed or come down in NATO territory on several occasions. Amusingly, instead of blaming the source, Ukraine, Western officials blamed Russian electronic jamming of the drones.
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said Tuesday that Ukraine is preparing drone attacks against Russia from the territory of the Baltic countries and warned of retaliation It alleged Ukrainian military personnel had been deployed to Latvia and warned that the country’s membership in NATO wouldn’t protect it from “just retribution.” Latvian authorities said the allegation was not true.
Last month, the Russian Defense Ministry published a list of factories in Europe that it said were involved in producing drones and their components for Ukraine. It warned that attacks on Russia involving drones manufactured in Europe are fraught with “unpredictable consequences.”
Some commentators interpreted the bellicose statements from Moscow and this week’s exercise featuring short- and medium-range nuclear weapons capable of reaching targets in Europe as part of Kremlin efforts to discourage Western allies from bolstering support for Ukraine.
Asked what message the nuclear exercise was intended to send, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded that “any drills are intended to send a signal,” but wouldn’t elaborate.
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 12:00Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is sanctioning four individuals associated with a pro-Hamas flotilla that is trying to access Gaza in support of the terrorist group, the department said in a May 19 statement.
Hamas terrorists secure an area before handing over an Israeli American hostage to a Red Cross team in Gaza City on Feb. 1, 2025. Photo by SAEED JARAS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty ImagesThe flotilla is organized by the Popular Conference for Palestinians Abroad (PCPA), which has been classified as a specially designated global terrorist by the United States.
"The PCPA was established with funding from Hamas's International Relations Bureau and Hamas directs its activity through the placement of Hamas officials throughout the organization, including its executive body, the General Secretariat," the Treasury said.
"So-called humanitarian flotillas that are organized by or supporting designated parties represent a significant compliance risk for financial institutions. Sanctioned terrorist groups continue to maintain significant influence over maritime flotillas to Gaza."
The four individuals sanctioned by the Treasury include a Spanish member of the PCPA's General Secretariat, who is a central figure of the flotilla; the acting secretary general and president of the PCPA, who is from Jordan; a Belgium-based European coordinator for the Samidoun organization; and a Samidoun coordinator from Spain.
Samidoun is a front organization for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, which the State Department has designated as a foreign terrorist organization. Both the PCPA and Samidoun act on behalf of sanctioned Palestinian terrorist organizations, the Treasury said.
In addition, OFAC sanctioned several members of Muslim Brotherhood networks who are aligned with Hamas.
All property and interests in property of the sanctioned individuals that are in the United States or in control of U.S. persons are effectively blocked and must be reported to OFAC. The sanctions prohibit U.S. persons from engaging in any transactions involving the property or interests in property of those who are sanctioned.
"The pro-terror flotilla attempting to reach Gaza is a ludicrous attempt to undermine President Trump's successful progress toward lasting peace in the region," Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said. "Treasury will continue to sever Hamas' global financial support networks, no matter where in the world they are."
State Department spokesperson Thomas Pigott said in a May 19 statement that OFAC has targeted three enablers - the flotilla organizers, Muslim Brotherhood members, and Samidoun members - who he said are used by Hamas to sustain its position in Gaza, engage in terrorist violence, and finance its operations.
OFAC's action exposes how Hamas exploits purported civil society organizations, diaspora groups, and religious institutions "to advance its malign agenda while claiming humanitarian objectives," according to the spokesperson.
"Under President Trump, the United States remains committed to supporting efforts to achieve lasting peace in the Middle East," he added. "We will continue to use all available tools to counter those who support terrorism and obstruct the path to a peaceful resolution of the conflict."
Hamas-UN TiesMeanwhile, U.S. lawmakers are aiming to eliminate a U.N. agency accused of employing Hamas terrorists, according to a May 19 statement from the office of Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). The agency being targeted is the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).
In February 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order banning funding for UNRWA. According to the order, the agency has reportedly been infiltrated by members of foreign terrorist organizations, with employees from the organization being directly involved in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel.
UNRWA has dismissed these allegations. In a September 2025 fact sheet, the agency said that claims of some members of its staff in Gaza having links with Hamas or the Palestinian Islamic Jihad are false and that it has "not received any information, let alone any evidence, from the Israeli Authorities or any other Member State" about such accusations.
In a May 18 letter to Trump, Cotton and 24 colleagues asked that the administration take "decisive action to fully dismantle UNRWA and eliminate it from the UN budget."
"Any aid organization in Gaza or otherwise must be demonstrably free of ties to terrorism and committed to transparency, accountability, and peace," they said in the letter. "We must ensure this failed system doesn't continue reinforcing the conditions that have fueled terrorism for generations. The time to act is now."
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 11:40Two months ago, at the end of March, we reported that Turkey was aggressively dumping its gold reserves in a panic scramble to obtain dollar funding, which Erdogan's regime was using to keep the Turkish lira from crashing, and to also pay for energy imports which had suddenly soared in price as a result of the Iran war.
The violent selling by Turkey (and other emerging markets) was behind the brutal plunge in gold prices, which tumbled by more than $1000 from near all-time highs at the start of the war to the low 4000s by the time Turkey had done selling much of its gold.
Then earlier this week, we got another confirmation of Turkey's wild liquidation spree when the latest central bank data showed that Turkey’s foreign reserves had their biggest monthly decline on record in March, as the Iran war triggered global selloffs in emerging market assets and strained the lira.
According to balance-of-payments data, Turkey's official reserves cratered by $43.4 billion in March. Part of the decline reflected state intervention to offset portfolio outflows. The current-account deficit, meanwhile, widened to $9.7 billion in March from $7.3 billion in February as a result of soaring commodity prices.
A major energy importer, Turkey has been hit hard by higher oil and gas prices caused by the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting disruptions to world supplies of crude and refined products. Meanwhile, global banks have started changing their formerly favorable outlook on the lira, citing the exploding current-account deficit. Should inflation pressures persist, Turkey will have no choice but to pursue another accelerated devaluation of the Turkish lira.
“As international institutions continue to raise their average oil price forecasts for 2026, disruptions in supply chains and ongoing regional tensions — and their potential negative impact on transportation and tourism revenues — keep upward risks alive in year-end projections” for Turkey, said Istanbul-based economist Haluk Burumcekci.
Turkish central bank Governor Fatih Karahan said last week that the ratio between the current-account deficit and gross domestic product would be “below historical averages” this year while acknowledging the upside risks.
Yet as we said in March, while selling gold is a step of clear desperation for Turkey which had put in much efforts in recent years to build up a substantial gold stock, it is understandable for a regime that suddenly finds itself in a dollar funding crisis, the bigger question is did Turkey do the same with its holdings of Treasuries which are far more liquid and thus far less likely to move the market even when facing a sizable liquidation.
The answer, we learned today, is a resounding yes.
According to Bloomberg calculations based on US Treasury data, Turkey sold almost all of its US Treasuries in March as it stepped up efforts to support its currency during the first month of the Iran war. The amount of Treasuries held by Turkey crashed to just $1.8 billion by the end of March, down from $16 billion the previous month, the data showed. The figure includes securities held by the central bank and other Turkish entities, including corporates.
The decline coincided with a selloff in Turkish markets after the Middle East conflict erupted, sending oil prices sharply higher. The central bank moved immediately to prevent a crash in the lira by tightening funding conditions and selling off foreign exchange and gold assets. Its interventions also included swapping gold from reserves, although now that it has also dumped the bulk of its last ditch dollar reserves, those swaps will almost certainly end up forcing Turkey to hand over whatever gold was pledged.
Turkey’s Treasury holdings were as high as $21 billion in February 2025 after the country spent a year rebuilding reserves. They had peaked about a decade ago at $80 billion, before steadily declining as relations with the US soured over a range of political and geopolitical disputes, and as Turkey consistently sold reserves to maintain a smooth devaluation of the lira.
Despite the interventions, the lira has remained under pressure as the war drags on. Last week, the central bank raised its year-end inflation target to 24% from 16%, after data showed annual inflation accelerated to 32.4%. Turkish bonds have also suffered steep losses, with 10-year yields hitting record highs of 35.75%.
And now that Turkey has no more gold or Treasurys with which to defend the currency, expect a sharp and painful death in the currency which has gone from less than 10 against the dollar five years ago to a record 45.6 today..
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 11:20Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
The bond market is beginning to force reality onto Washington, and it may ultimately force an end to the Iran war long before politicians or diplomats are willing to admit it.
For months, investors have focused on missiles, retaliation headlines, oil chokepoints, and the possibility of a broader regional escalation from the Iran War. During the geopolitical noise, I urged readers not to overlook stress in financial markets that was happening before the war even started, namely in places like private credit and subprime auto lending. I called these “real crises” hiding behind record highs while “investors” chase gamma squeezes higher in an ongoing distortion feedback loop that is making things look far better than they are under the surface.
And now, beneath all the geopolitical noise, a much more serious, harder to ignore crisis is unfolding. As Cypher says in The Matrix:
"Fasten your seat belt Dorothy, 'cause Kansas is going bye-bye."
This crisis is in the Treasury market. Bond yields are moving sharply higher, and they are sending a message that policymakers can no longer afford to ignore: the financial system is becoming unstable under the weight of war spending, massive deficits, persistent inflation, and a debt load that was already unsustainable before this conflict began.
The bond market does not give a flying fuck about political narratives, gamma squeezes, meme stocks, retail investors or any other ticky tacky end-around style loopholes that continue to push stocks higher. It cares about math, fiscal policy and monetary policy. And the math is getting ugly very quickly.
The 10-year Treasury yield is arguably the single most important price in global finance because virtually every major asset class is built on top of it. Mortgage rates, commercial real estate valuations, private equity models, corporate borrowing costs, equity multiples, venture capital, and government financing itself all depend on stable Treasury markets. When yields rise too quickly, everything starts repricing at once. That is why this matters so much more than the daily moves in the stock market.
Washington understands this, even if it refuses to say it publicly.
The United States can survive political embarrassment overseas, but it simply cannot survive a disorderly Treasury market.
That is why I believe the bond market is eventually going to force a few things. First, a de-escalation of the Iran conflict. The priority now is no longer “victory” or even geopolitical strategy. The priority is restoring stability before bond yields spiral completely out of control. A prolonged war that keeps oil prices elevated while deficits explode higher is simply incompatible with a heavily indebted financial system already struggling under the burden of high interest rates.
The problem is that America entered this conflict from an extraordinarily weak fiscal position to begin with. This is not World War II, when the country had a young population, industrial dominance, low debt levels, and decades of economic expansion ahead of it. Today the US government is already running deficits approaching $2 trillion annually during what is supposedly a normal economic environment. Interest expense on the national debt has already become one of the largest items in the federal budget. Now add war spending, weakening foreign demand for Treasuries, rising commodity prices, and higher refinancing costs, and the entire situation starts looking dangerously unstable.
This is where the inflation problem becomes unavoidable.
War has always been inflationary, but not just because of oil shocks or supply chain disruptions. The deeper issue is debt creation itself. Wars are financed through borrowing, and borrowing at these levels increasingly requires central bank intervention one way or another. The process is actually very simple: war creates debt, debt pressures the financial system, and eventually the system responds through some combination of money creation, currency debasement, and financial repression.
That is exactly what the bond market is beginning to anticipate right now.
Ironically, as I’ve predicted the past week, before the Federal Reserve eventually steps in to suppress yields, we may actually see another round of rate hikes first. If oil prices remain elevated and inflation expectations continue rising alongside Treasury yields, the Fed may feel forced to tighten policy again simply to preserve credibility and prevent inflation psychology from becoming entrenched. If that doesn’t work, I’ve predicted that the Fed will simply start bullshitting its inflation numbers.
In other words, the system may briefly attempt to defend the dollar before ultimately surrendering to debt realities. That creates the possibility of a brutal stagflationary environment where growth slows, markets weaken, borrowing costs rise, and inflation remains stubbornly elevated at the same time.
And that…is a nightmare scenario for risk assets and a near-impossible job for incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh.
For years, markets became addicted to near-zero rates and endless liquidity. Entire sectors of the economy were built on the assumption that capital would remain permanently cheap. But when Treasury yields rise meaningfully, everything changes. Leveraged speculation becomes harder to sustain. Corporate refinancing becomes more expensive. Housing affordability deteriorates further. Commercial real estate faces additional stress. Equity valuations compress. The “everything bubble” suddenly starts losing oxygen and all the shit I’ve written about that I think will blow up — including all 10 area of the market I highlighted here — will implode.
And once again, the people who get hurt the most will not be the financial elite, it will be ordinary Americans. You heard it from the former bartender turned Substack shit-talker first…read this slowly:
Mom and pop savers are about to get squeezed from every direction at once. Their wages will fail to keep up with inflation. Their borrowing costs will rise. Their credit card rates will stay elevated. Their insurance, food, energy, and housing costs will continue climbing. Their retirement portfolios will become more volatile. And eventually, after enduring all of that pain, they will likely watch policymakers step in to rescue the bond market and financial system through another round of monetary intervention that further destroys the purchasing power of their savings.
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Every cycle ends the same way. Wall Street and the financial system are treated as too important to fail, while ordinary citizens absorb the consequences through inflation and currency debasement. Policymakers will present future interventions as necessary for “financial stability,” but stability for whom? Stability for leveraged institutions, overextended governments, and asset markets dependent on artificially suppressed rates.
Meanwhile, the average family gets punished twice. First through inflation, then through the policies used to contain the damage caused by inflation.
And make no mistake, if yields continue climbing, the Fed and Treasury will eventually intervene in some form. Maybe they will not officially call it yield curve control at first. Maybe it arrives through stealth quantitative easing, emergency liquidity facilities, Treasury buyback programs, bank regulatory changes, or coordinated purchases through the financial system. But the end result will be the same: suppress long-term yields because the debt burden has become too large for markets to absorb naturally.
At current debt levels, genuinely free market interest rates are politically and financially impossible. The bond market is beginning to expose that reality.
That is also why I am becoming bullish again on gold, silver, and mining stocks after stepping away from them earlier this year following their enormous run in 2025. If the Fed ultimately chooses to suppress yields while inflation remains structurally elevated, precious metals become one of the clearest beneficiaries. Gold and silver perform best when confidence in fiat systems deteriorates and when governments prioritize debt sustainability over currency stability. I’ve long said I think they will have a sharp fall lower on the initial deleveraging, then probably double off their near term bottom in short order once the Fed’s liquidity starts hitting the market.
And that is exactly the direction this appears to be heading.
The Iran war may end sooner than many expect, not because global leaders suddenly become responsible, but because the bond market is forcing them into a corner. Financial instability is becoming the greater threat. Policymakers now face an impossible balancing act between inflation, debt servicing costs, economic slowdown, and geopolitical conflict.
Something will have to give. Historically, when governments reach this stage, they choose to protect the debt market and sacrifice the currency.
There is little reason to believe this time will be any different.
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Tyler Durden Thu, 05/21/2026 - 11:05