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When Will The Cattle Cycle Turn? BofA Has Answers For Beef Lovers
Bank of America analysts spoke with Oklahoma State University agricultural economist Derrell Peel, who offered new insight into the US cattle cycle. His key takeaway: the herd-rebuilding phase may not meaningfully begin to turn until near the end of the decade, suggesting elevated beef prices at the supermarket are here to stay.
The most important issue in the beef industry is when the cattle cycle will turn. The US beef cow herd is the smallest since 1961, while the 2025 calf crop is the smallest since 1941. Beef production is expected to decline by 4.5% to 5% in 2026 and continue falling through at least 2027, despite heavier carcass weights partially offsetting lower slaughter volumes.
Peel explained to Sara Senatore, a BofA Securities research analyst covering restaurants, protein processors, and food and beverage, that the beef industry has not yet seen the tightest supplies because meaningful heifer retention has only just begun.
He added that if ranchers begin saving heifer calves in 2026, those animals would be bred in 2027, calve in 2028, and only begin adding to supply in 2029 or 2030.
Peel explained more about when the cattle rebuilding cycle could turn:
The bottom line is, I don't think we're saving very many heifers yet. I don't think we're doing more than perhaps slowing the liquidation down, or stabilizing the herd. We're certainly not going to expand any in 2026. I think the prospects for expansion in 2027 are very limited at this point, because again we know that the supply of heifers that's already on the ground, that we would need to be breeding this year to enter the herd next year, just isn't there.
And so if we start saving heifers, which would really be heifer calves in 2026, we breed them in '27, they would calve in 2028, we're talking about 2029 into 2030 before those calves would be weaned and fed out and have an impact on beef production. So we're really looking at the end of the decade before we can change the path here.
And in fact, what it means is that in the meantime we have to save some additional heifers. We haven't yet seen the tightest supplies of this particular situation. We've got tight supplies, the feeder supply continues to decline with these smaller calf crops, but at some point we have to pull additional heifers out of that mix in order to retain them for herd rebuilding. We have not done that yet to any appreciable degree.
Cow calf producers are getting market incentives, returns are good. But we've been very slow to respond as an industry for, I think, a wide variety of reasons, that includes drought and financial conditions and demographic changes in the herd or in the producer population, and just a variety of things that contribute to that.
The upshot of it all, this is my final analytical slide, is that we think that prices will continue to go even higher. I would expect that heifer retention process to be what would put the peak in this thing. That peak will not happen, in my opinion, at this point in 2026. It will be at least into 2027. And there is a possibility that it gets pushed off even beyond that if we don't see some indications of heifer retention pretty quickly here in 2026.
So the short answer is the current situation will continue, and I think persist, and actually get a little bit more in terms of higher cattle prices. Now, that's all predicated on demand continuing as strong as it is. I don't see that changing at this point. There's certainly some potential threats out there that we're watching, but I don't see demand changing enough to prevent this.
So the short answer is the current situation will continue, and I think persist, and actually get a little bit more in terms of higher cattle prices. Now, that's all predicated on demand continuing as strong as it is. I don't see that changing at this point. There's certainly some potential threats out there that we're watching, but I don't see demand changing enough to prevent this.
The warning that the cattle cycle is still several years from a meaningful turn builds on our prior note that there are "no quick fixes" for historically tight supplies.
The structural fix is herd rebuilding, and Peel's timeline points to meaningful relief in beef production closer to 2029-2030, not anytime soon.
In other words, high supermarket beef prices are not a temporary squeeze. This is a new reality folks must understand: a broken cattle cycle that will take years to repair - and quality might lack...
That's why locking in high-quality beef now matters. While the Trump administration searches for ways to bring prices down (see here) and the industry waits years for herds to rebuild, readers can skip the junk at the supermarket and buy directly from our ranchers.
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'World's Largest' Heavy-Lift Cargo Aircraft Targeted For Military And Disaster Logistics
Authored by Christopher McFadden via Interesting Engineering,
Radia and Blue Water Shipping (Blue Water) have announced a strategic alliance that will combine the former's gigantic Windrunner aircraft with the latter's global logistics network. Under the agreement, Radia will supply the aircraft, and Blue Water will do basically everything else.
Image of several Radia Windrunner aircraft taxiing.Radia"The companies expect to focus initial collaboration efforts across several strategic sectors, including energy and project cargo, humanitarian aid and disaster relief, aerospace logistics, and military and defense-related transportation," Radia explains in a press release.
In case you are unaware, the Windrunner is being marketed as the world's "largest cargo aircraft." Not in terms of raw weight, incidentally, but rather in the fact that it can vary extremely large, and non-standard cargo.
To date, examples have included 328-foot (100-meter) long turbine blades, large military vehicles, satellites, and aircraft fuselage parts, among other notable examples. So, in a sense, the selling point for it is its cargo-carrying volume.
Windrunner Is One Hell Of An AircraftAnother interesting wrinkle is that the Windrunner is designed to operate out of both existing and "semi-prepared runways." This means it can deliver cargo to dirt strips, compacted gravel, temporary runways, and remote airfields.
That means it could, in theory, fly directly to places like wind farm construction sites, military bases, disaster zones, and mining projects, rather than unloading hundreds of miles away.
Both Radia and Blue Water are particularly pitching their services to militaries and humanitarian aid efforts. The former often requires irregular cargo like radar systems, missile launchers, helicopters, engineering gear, bridge-laying equipment, etc, delivered to areas with no existing aerodromes.
The same is true for humanitarian aid, especially when natural disasters have knocked out existing infrastructure.
"Many of the industries we support are constrained not only by infrastructure but by the inability to efficiently move oversized cargo where and when it is needed," said Mark Lundstrom, Founder and CEO of Radia.
Blue Water is a logistics company that has made its fortune arranging global logistics via things like ships. trucks, trains, etc, and navigating all the administrative red tape like customs, permits, etc. Both companies believe they can combine their respective talents to streamline the integration of their respective services.
Not An Exclusive Partnership, More Of An Open Relationship"By combining WindRunner's transformational airlift capabilities with Blue Water Shipping's global logistics expertise, we believe we can help create more flexible and resilient transportation solutions for customers operating in some of the world's most challenging environments," Lundstrom added.
"Blue Water Shipping has extensive experience delivering complex logistics solutions across industries that depend on precision, reliability, and flexibility," said Rasmus Svane, Head of Global Product Development Wind, Blue Water Shipping.
"Our collaboration with Radia represents an exciting opportunity to explore new logistics models for oversized cargo and help customers rethink what is possible when combining multimodal transportation solutions," he added.
It is important to note that the agreement is for both to become "preferred partners" of one another. That doesn't mean exclusivity, but rather, they will bid together for projects that benefit both.
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"Turn Off Bluetooth, Use Signal": ACLU Advises Anti-Trump Protesters On Evading Gov't Surveillance
If you want a sign of how the left-wing, permanent protest-industrial complex is gearing up for the next wave of street mobilization, look no further than Chad Marlow, a senior policy counsel at the ACLU.
Marlow, whose work focuses on privacy, surveillance, and technology, has circulated guidance for protesters on social media about how to limit digital exposure, avoid government surveillance, and communicate via encrypted messaging platforms while protesting.
"If you're protesting and not actively using your phone, the best thing you can do to prevent it from sharing information about you and your location is to shut it off entirely. If you want to turn on your phone to take pictures and record video during the day, turn your phone on, enable Airplane Mode, and turn off Bluetooth. That way, your phone won't be inadvertently sharing your private location and other data while you're using it," Marlow said in a video posted on Instagram.
He continued, "If you need to use your phone, turn it on while you're communicating, then shut it off when you're done. By the way, it's always safest to use a fully encrypted app like Signal, which makes it more difficult for the government to intercept your communications."
After the North Texas Antifa defendants were convicted over the anti-ICE terror shooting attack and the Minnesota Antifa cell suspects were indicted for anti-government violence, leftist groups have been releasing guides on how to hide and destroy digital evidence.
The ACLU is… https://t.co/HfQv37KL0a pic.twitter.com/WRSFSgGxqf
The ACLU is listed as a proud partner of the failed No Kings rally, an event that is far from organic; instead, it is a heavily coordinated coalition of far-left socialist groups, NGOs, and unions seeking a socialist revolution by toppling Trump.
Marlow's educational session on how protesters can limit digital exposure and evade government surveillance is certainly not a good look for a nonprofit that claims to defend all civil liberties. Instead, it has become a legal arm of far-left protesters.
Related:
Concerns that the ACLU is no longer merely protecting constitutional rights but is increasingly helping to equip DSA-aligned protesters for their revolution are very troubling, given what socialists say in their own words:
DSA Members: "The most important thing we can do is take America down from within" pic.twitter.com/phicruCxKe
— DSA Watch (@DSA_Watch) July 8, 2026This blurs the line between civil-liberties advocacy and activist support infrastructure at a time when the broader protest-industrial complex appears to be gearing up for the next round of street chaos.
Tyler Durden Thu, 07/09/2026 - 21:20