Today's FOMC minutes will be scrutinized for further insight into policymakers' appetite for additional rate hikes and the thinking behind the Committee's hawkish shift at last month's meeting. The minutes are an account of the June 17th meeting and therefore will not reflect subsequent developments, including the softer-than-expected June nonfarm payrolls report or Chair Warsh's appearance at the ECB's Sintra Forum.
Nonetheless, as Newsquawk writes in its FOMC Minutes preview, the June meeting, Warsh's first as Fed Chair, marked a significant shift under his leadership. The Committee unanimously overhauled the policy statement, removing all forward guidance and placing greater emphasis on its commitment to price stability. While the statement changes were unanimous among voting members, it will be interesting to see whether non voting participants also supported the removal of forward guidance and the stronger inflation-focused language.
On forward guidance, Waller spoke about the tool on July 6th - after the FOMC. He noted that it can speed the impact of monetary policy, calling it a valuable tool. However, it can be a hindrance if it is too strong or rigid, and also problematic when policy makers expect different economic outcomes all with a significant probability of occurring, adding in some cases, it is best not to use it at all. We will be looking to see the views among the whole FOMC around the use of forward guidance.
Anecdotally, Rabobank wrote that "Fed's Waller has joined new Chair Warsh in wanting to shake up Fed communications to do so less: ahead of the FOMC minutes today, one wonders if they could just be a truncated, "We talked about stuff," leaving analysts to... well, analyze, rather than being spoon-fed."
Traders will also be watching for any discussion surrounding the broader policy reviews announced by Warsh. During the FOMC press conference, he revealed plans to establish five task forces covering Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and the Fed's inflation framework. While the reviews are not expected to conclude until year-end, the minutes may provide an early indication of how policymakers view these topics, although it may still be too early for any meaningful discussion. As this is the first set of minutes under Chair Warsh, there is also some scope for changes to the presentation or structure of the document, given the broader changes already made to the FOMC statement.
Meeting Recap
Kevin Warsh's debut as Fed Chair delivered a clear hawkish shift. While the Committee left rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, as widely expected, the policy statement was significantly revised, removing all forward guidance and reaffirming the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability.
The statement reiterated that inflation remains elevated but updated its description to reference supply shocks affecting specific sectors, including energy. The Committee also upgraded its assessment of the labour market, noting that job gains were keeping pace with workforce growth rather than remaining subdued. Economic activity continued to be described as expanding at a solid pace despite uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, while policymakers added new language highlighting strong productivity growth and capital investment.
Regarding the Summary of Economic Projections, inflation forecasts were revised higher, GDP growth projections for 2026 were trimmed modestly, and the unemployment rate was revised lower. Warsh did not submit his own forecasts due to his distaste for forward guidance, but he made it clear he is focused on price stability.
The dot plot shifted materially, representing a hawkish shift. The median 2026 projection rose to 3.8% from 3.4%, implying one 25bp rate hike compared with March's median projection for one rate cut. The 2027 median increased to 3.6% from 3.1%, while the 2028 projection rose to 3.4% from 3.1%. The distribution of projections was equally notable: nine participants now expect at least one rate hike this year (one sees three hikes, five see two hikes and three see one hike), compared with none in March. Meanwhile, eight participants now expect rates to remain unchanged through year-end (previously seven), while only one still projects a rate cut (previously seven).
Following the meeting, analysts broadly concluded that the statement, economic projections and Warsh's press conference reinforced the view that policymakers are placing greater emphasis on inflation risks than labour market concerns.
Since then, Warsh has reiterated many of those themes during his appearance at the ECB's Sintra Forum. He again rejected the use of forward guidance, stressed that interest rates should remain the Fed's primary policy tool and reaffirmed the Committee's commitment to price stability. He acknowledged that inflation expectations had eased during his first month as Chair but maintained that inflation running above the Fed's 2% target remains unacceptable.
On the balance sheet, he again avoided providing specific guidance, reiterating only that he favors a smaller balance sheet and that the newly established review committees will inform future discussions.
Although subsequent data will not feature in these minutes, it is worth adding that the softer June payrolls report has led markets to pare some of the hawkish repricing seen after the June meeting. Money markets now fully price one 25bp rate hike by December rather than October, meaning traders will be assessing the minutes against a policy outlook that has evolved modestly since the meeting took place.
Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,
The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) on July 7 entered not guilty pleas again to 11 criminal counts alleging it defrauded donors by sending millions of dollars to informants who infiltrated white supremacist and so-called hate groups that it publicly opposed.
The fresh arraignment of the nonprofit organization under a new superseding indictment took place via videoconference before Montgomery, Alabama-based U.S. Magistrate Judge Kelly F. Pate.
The charges, announced on April 21 by FBI Director Kash Patel and acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche, sparked political backlash amid growing questions about the group, which the federal government had previously used to track extremist groups with its “Hate Map” and other online resources.
The original indictment by a federal grand jury charged the SPLC with wire fraud, making false statements to a federally insured bank, and conspiracy to commit money laundering.
The group was alleged to have surreptitiously transferred more than $3 million in donated funds to leaders and organizers of racist groups, including the Ku Klux Klan, the Aryan Nation, and the National Alliance, between 2014 and 2023.
The government said the SPLC sent donations to bank accounts of fake entities that had names such as “Rare Books Warehouse” and “Tech Writers Group.” The accounts were then used to funnel money to alleged informants in the racist groups that it claimed to strongly oppose.
One of the informants allegedly helped to organize the “Unite the Right” protest in 2017 in Charlottesville, Virginia, that turned deadly.
SPLC interim president and CEO Bryan Fair appeared in person on May 7 to plead not guilty to the same charges on behalf of the group.
On July 7, an attorney for the organization appeared by videoconference to enter 11 not guilty pleas to the superseding indictment issued last month that added more details and specifics. The new charging document did not add new charges.
The original indictment alleged $3 million in donor funds was funneled to individuals associated with extremist groups, but the new indictment increases the figure to $4.1 million.
The new indictment provides additional details such as a claim that funds were used by recipients for buying materials for cross burnings and Ku Klux Klan robes and hoods.
The SPLC has filed a motion to dismiss the indictment for vindictive prosecution. The group claims it is being targeted by the Trump administration for political reasons. It is unclear when the court will rule on the motion.
The SPLC is known for its successful fundraising campaigns. According to its most recent publicly available IRS filing, it had gross receipts in tax year 2023 of $339.3 million and assets of $822.2 million.
The FBI severed its relationship with the SPLC in October 2025 after conservatives criticized the group for including slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s organization on its list of hate groups. The FBI had previously used SPLC intelligence on domestic extremist groups.
Patel said the organization has turned into a “partisan smear machine” instead of a civil rights advocate.
“Their so-called ‘hate map’ has been used to defame mainstream Americans and even inspired violence,” he said at the time, without elaborating.
The SPLC’s Hate Map lists almost 1,400 groups, including Kirk’s Turning Point USA, categorizing it as an “antigovernment” group.
Critics have long said the Montgomery-based SPLC unfairly labels conservatives as racist as a matter of policy, treats opposition to illegal or legal immigration, open borders, and multiculturalism as hate, and political expression of those views as hate speech.
The Alliance Defending Freedom, a legal organization that defends religious freedom and free speech, says the SPLC “did good work decades ago fighting segregation in the South,” but has since it has become a “far-left activist organization that attacks anyone who disagrees with its narrow political agenda.” Targets have included conservative, libertarian, anti-tax, immigration reductionist, and other groups.
In a statement issued in May, the SPLC called the charges against them “provably wrong” and “based on inaccurate facts and a misapplication of law.” The nonprofit said its informant program has been successful at preventing threats and attacks, stopping criminal activity, and gathering information used to dismantle hate groups.
“There is no question that the information the SPLC shared with law enforcement saved lives,” the statement reads.
It also stated that it was no stranger to legal threats and would continue its mission “no matter what.”
The Epoch Times reached out to the SPLC for comment. No reply was received by publication time.
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 12:05Tehran's oil export troubled just got worse.
One week after we reported that Iran was already struggling to sell its crude to buyers in Asia (including China, which appears to now prefer UAE exports instead), overnight the US rescinded the sanctions waiver that allowed Tehran to sell its oil without penalties, making sales of Iranian crude to international buyers even more challenging.
The Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday prompted immediate US reaction with the USmilitary striking multiple targets in Iran and the Treasury canceling the waiver on Iran’s oil sales that was supposed to be in place until August 21.
Iran’s oil sales could be constrained again even before they resume, OilPrice reports. Since the memorandum of understanding was signed in mid-June, Iran has rushed to load cargoes from its key export sites at Kharg Island, and move its tankers out of the Gulf as soon as possible, after weeks of virtually no exports because of the U.S. blockade that began in mid-April.
The surge in Iranian shipments out of the Gulf and into waters near the Malacca and Singapore Straits gave Iran a lifeline to boost its exports that had suffered from the U.S. blockade.
China has remained Iran’s key customer as other buyers are reluctant to commit to purchases. But in recent weeks, we learned that even Chinese purchases of Iran oil have slowed dramatically, and now that the US has ended the waiver and sanctions are in place again, buyers in India that were considering potential purchases have likely backed out.
Additionally, one could go so far as to argue Iranian oil in tankers is once again subject to US seizure.
Looks like the US has a license to seize Iranian tankers, especially those off Asia and waiting for Chinese teapot buyers to emerge. https://t.co/e9hxCwuOUx
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 7, 2026Iran is thus left with millions of barrels of crude oil on tankers moving or idling in a large area from the Persian Gulf to the Strait of Malacca. Most of the laden tankers do not broadcast destination or broadcast they are for orders, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
Currently, as many as 63 million barrels of Iranian oil are either in transit or idling in tankers, per Bloomberg’s estimates based on data from Vortexa, which also notes that oil on floating storage in the Gulf has more than doubled in the past week to over 41 million barrels.
“Iran managed to ship out 60 million barrels of crude oil since the US Navy blockade paused in mid-June 2026,” TankerTrackers.com said late on Tuesday, after the U.S.-Iran tensions escalated again.
“If the blockade were to resume now due to escalating tensions, Iran would be stuck with ~50 million barrels of crude oil and refined products.”
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/08/2026 - 11:45