By Michael Every of Rabobank
In the UK --where the 30-year gilt yield sits at 5.74%, the highest since 1997-- politics is abuzz with rumors centre-right Health Secretary will resign to take on PM Starmer in a leadership contest, which left-wing Energy Secretary Miliband is expected to join to prevent any Coronation Streeting, as left-wingers Rayner and Burns may try to as well. This is 24 hours after King Charles read out the Starmer government’s legislative agenda, which includes using a Henry VIII-era statute to force the UK to readopt EU laws without (yet) wanting to rejoin. As UK political commentators put it, the struggling Labour Party needs to decide what it’s for - and depending on what happens next, it remains to be seen if that includes the markets. Indeed, several left-wingers have been openly derisory about concerns over potential Labour policies lifting gilt yields.
Logically, a (successful) political party should try to understand the context in which its policies will operate. As a social media commentator points out, while Labour built the welfare state in 1945 when the UK was broke, which remains its proud legacy, “Attlee's settlement was bankrolled by imperial surpluses, Marshall Aid, sterling's privileged role within Bretton Woods, capital controls that turned domestic savers into a captive bond market, and inflation that quietly torched the real debt. It sat on top of a state a fraction of today's size, financed by a young workforce, riding reconstruction productivity growth.” Raise your hand if you think the present geoeconomic backdrop, and that of the UK, meets those criteria – and the bond market will also get a vote.
As the Financial Times relatedly underlines ‘Why global imbalances matter’, as they are the root of our geopolitical and geoeconomic problems (which, ironically, is why we rarely talk about them?), another long-running soap opera is playing in Beijing.
In Eastenders, Trump, with a billionaire CEO entourage, is meeting Xi after posting in Air Force One that he will be asking him “to ‘open up’ China so that these brilliant people can work their magic, and help bring the People’s Republic to an even higher level!” Indeed, as some talk of UK Labour going back to the 1970s, the US language is also of Nixon–Mao 2.0, albeit from a very different starting point. Everybody gets how important these talks are, but few consider the full US *and* Chinese contexts, and many takes are colored by what they think of Trump. Some think Xi now has all the cards; others that the US still has some aces.
We will have to wait and see if we get a Grand Bargain that reshapes geopolitics and geoeconomics – and, yes, imbalances; smaller agreement on tariffs, tech (as the Netherlands protests a US proposal to further bar chip giant ASML from the China market), and even Taiwan; a de minimis Farce Two Trade Deal can-kicking exercise, or a Great Escalation.
On which note, some media suggest China might be prepared to put pressure on Tehran, yet the New York Times reports that Chinese firms are plotting arms sales to it. Which will it be?
While Europe is on the sidelines of the UK, US-China, and Iran dramas, that doesn’t mean it’s absent. Yesterday, the FT reported Euroclear, one of Europe’s largest financial intermediaries with over €43 trillion of assets under custody, is considering accepting China onshore bonds traded in Hong Kong as collateral, not just offshore bonds as now. Euroclear states this would support Beijing’s efforts to promote yuan internationalisation to counterbalance the global dominance of the USD… at a time when the EU’s push for strategic autonomy, heightened by the Iran War energy crisis, is accentuating the need to boost global usage of the euro, not the yuan.
That’s particularly the case in trade commodity finance, where the single currency only accounts for around 6% of the global total in SWIFT, and even less considering more of that trade is being done on China’s CIPS system.
Of course, Euroclear is free to do whatever it wants, but it remains to be seen how this plays out politically and geopolitically now the news is out - the US will note the timing well, just as Trump is in Beijing looking for bargains.
If this is seen as a European bargaining chip vs. the US in a game of geoeconomic poker, note USD swaplines have now been openly politicized by the US Treasury via Argentina and the UAE, and next Fed Chair Warsh has stated that even Fed swaplines are not an area subject to central-bank independence.
Or is this a plan for Succession from the current Eurodollar system, which the US is now openly advertising it is going to transmogrify into something else via neo-mercantilist tariffs, economic statecraft, and US dollar stablecoins? Note successions can be disputed, and the candidates aiming to fill some large shoes can fall far short of the giants they have to replace.
Against that backdrop, Warsh was just voted in as Fed Chair by the Senate, in the narrowest confirmation (55-45) in US history – that shows how contested even ‘apolitical’ central banking now is. He will take over that key role with his predecessor Powell refusing to leave the FOMC table, which will be an ‘interesting’ dynamic; and with the 30-year US Treasury yield hitting 5% for the first time since 2007 as headline and core CPI rise due to the Iran War.
On which, the Middle East remains on edge. Not only did the UAE, and Saudi, reportedly strike Iran pre-ceasefire, but the Saudis and Kuwait both just hit Iran-backed militias in Iraq; the Iranian foreign minister threatened the UAE after Israeli PM Netanyahu claimed he and the head of Mossad had visited Abu Dhabi during the fighting – which the UAE has denied; Lebanon has filed a UN complaint against Iranian interference; and the Gaza Board of Peace envoy has stated the stalled ceasefire has failed to meet the expectations of both Israel and Palestinians, which appears to be down to Hamas’ refusal to disarm.
Things are also fluid re: Ukraine. The Ukraine Support Act won enough signatures to force a vote in the US House of Representatives; the US is close to signing a strategic defence deal with Ukraine for drone tech; NATO boss Rutte is asking allies to commit 0.25% of GDP to Kyiv but is running into opposition from France and the UK; the US just cancelled the deployment of troops to Europe as part of Trump’s drawdown pledge; Switzerland is considering rival defence systems after Washington delayed delivering Patriot missiles to it; and the Russian parliament voted to allow Putin to order troop deployments abroad to protect Russian citizens facing arrest, detention, trial, or other perceived persecution by foreign nations and international courts – note the EU has several countries with Russian minorities, and aims to eventually expand to include others that also do.
So, back to today’s soap operas – Coronation Streeting, Eastenders, and Succession.
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/14/2026 - 10:30Cisco Systems shares posted their biggest gain since the Dot-Com boom-and-bust era after the networking giant delivered third-quarter results that beat analysts' estimates. The company also announced a workforce restructuring, aligning with a broader hyperscaler playbook that cuts labor costs and redirects capital toward AI infrastructure and data-center buildouts.
Cisco raised its fiscal 2026 outlook, guiding for $62.8 billion to $63 billion in revenue and $4.27 to $4.29 in adjusted EPS, while also issuing a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter sales forecast.
The catalyst that sent shares into a parabolic move early in the U.S. cash session was demand for AI. Cisco boosted its expected fiscal 2026 hyperscaler AI orders to $9 billion from $5 billion, signaling stronger traction in supplying the networking infrastructure needed for data center buildouts. Shares surged more than 16%, marking their best day since May 2002.
Stock is at a record high.
UBS analyst Simon Penn summed up third-quarter results and guidance:
They reported EPS and revenue beat and Q4 guided EPS and revenue was upgraded.
Q3 EPS was $1.06 versus forecasts of $1.04 and Q3 revenue was $15.8 bn versus forecasts of $15.5 bn.
Looking forward, they increased Q4 EPS guidance to $1.16-1.18, above forecasts of $1.07. Q4 revenue guidance also beat, at $16.7-$16.9bn versus estimations of $15.82.
Cisco reported FY2026 orders from hyperscalers $9 bn, up from prior $5 bn.
CEO Chuck Robbins wrote in a blog, "The companies that will win in the AI era will be those with focus, urgency, and the discipline to continuously shift investment toward the areas where demand and long-term value creation are strongest."
"While we are reducing roles in some areas, we are making clear, strategic investments," Robbins added. That includes spending on chips, fiber optics, security, and the use of AI by its own employees, he noted.
Robbins said the company will undergo a workforce restructuring and shed fewer than 4,000 jobs, or less than 5% of the total employee base. This restructuring comes as it pivots toward data center buildouts.
Here's analyst commentary from Goldman's Nelson Armbrust:
Cisco Earnings Validate Networking is an AI Bottleneck
Drivers of the Earnings Beat : Cisco +15% pre mkt, the primary catalyst was a massive acceleration in AI infrastructure orders, which reached $1.9 billion in the quarter alone. Year-to-date AI orders hit $5.3 billion, prompting management to nearly double its full-year AI order guidance from $5 billion to $9 billion. Beyond AI, the beat was supported by a 50% year-over-year surge in networking product orders and a multi-billion-dollar campus networking refresh cycle. Additionally, Cisco announced a strategic restructuring to cut approximately 4,000 jobs (5% of its workforce) to reallocate capital toward high-growth areas like silicon, optics, and AI.
Broader Market and AI Infrastructure Implications
Validation of Hyperscaler Capex: Cisco's results provide a "clean" data point confirming that AI spending by hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Google) is not just sustained but accelerating. This reduces fears of an imminent "AI air pocket" in capital expenditures.
Networking as the New AI Bottleneck: The shift in demand toward Cisco's Silicon One and Acacia optics suggests that the market is moving from a "compute-first" phase (Nvidia GPUs) to a "connectivity-first" phase, where high-speed networking is critical to prevent data bottlenecks in massive AI clusters.
Goldman's Delta One desk noted:
Cisco delivered strong guidance while continuing to cut heads… effectively reinforcing the "AI replacing labor while driving infrastructure demand" story.
Across the major hyperscalers, white-collar workers remain on edge as layoffs accelerate - from Meta's plan to cut roughly 10% of its workforce to Oracle's elimination of thousands. The pattern of behavior among hyperscalers is capital reallocation by slashing labor costs to free up more spending for AI infrastructure, with capex estimates approaching $700 billion this year. That AI-driven
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/14/2026 - 10:15