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The duo, who dated from 2015 to 2016, were spotted hanging out last month after Grande made headlines for changing song lyrics about him.

The duo, who dated from 2015 to 2016, were spotted hanging out last month after Grande made headlines for changing song lyrics about him.

After two summer league games — and two DNPs for Mikel Brown Jr. — Nets fans may finally get to see their prized rookie on Monday.

The Royal Air Force brought out a stunning display of red, white, and blue to celebrate America’s 250th. The US Navy Blue Angels also performed a flyover over the procession of ships on the Hudson River to commence the International Aerial Show. Shortly after, the French Air Force’s precision aerobatic demonstration team Patrouille de France...

When A Toll Isn't A Toll

By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank

When A Toll Isn't A Toll

Yields on 10-year Treasuries finished last week up 11bps to 4.48% while yields on 10-year Bunds rose 8.5bps to 2.93%. Those higher borrowing costs came despite signs of weakening in the US jobs market, a weaker-than-expected prices paid figure on the ISM manufacturing index, and a surprisingly weak Eurozone CPI inflation report that follows in the wake of lower than expected inflation readings in the UK.

Market-based expectations of the future path of the Fed Funds rate finished the week a little lower than it started, with pricing of a future rate hike pushed out from October to December. 2-year Treasury yields fell by almost 4bps on Thursday after the payrolls report confirmed hiring in June was little better than half the expected figure.

This was still enough for the unemployment rate to tick down to 4.2% as a lower participation rate saw the labor force contract. Nevertheless, 2-year yields were higher across the week as sovereign curves bear-steepened.

Brent crude posted its first weekly gain in almost a month last week to see the front contract close up 0.18% at $72.12/bbl. The gains appear to have been short-lived as news of continued tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a decision by OPEC+ over the weekend to ease production restrictions by 188,000 barrels/day from August steer the price action lower this morning. Announcements of increased production are all well and good, but when much of that production is occurring in the Persian Gulf or in Russia (where Ukrainian strikes against oil infrastructure are ongoing) the ability to actually ship the product to market will remain the critical limiting factor.

On that note, official figures show that Hormuz traffic is back to approximately 30% of pre-war levels, though this likely understates the true picture as many vessels are transiting dark (i.e. without their tracking systems on) to avoid the attentions of Iran’s IRGC. Bloomberg reports that six vessels transited the route closest to the Omani coastline under US auspices on Sunday without incident. That follows reports of up to eight vessels performing u-turns (with some later being redirected through the Iranian route) after attempting to transit close to Oman on Friday and Saturday.

Updated data from Kpler and Vortexa shows that crude exports from the UAE surged in June to exceed pre-war levels and approach record highs. The UAE’s recent decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ is considered bearish over the longer term for energy prices as a diminished share of potential production is subject to non-market constraints.

On the other hand, Iran again indicated over the weekend that it will be instituting “service fees” on vessels transiting Hormuz through its territorial waters once the 60-day negotiating period kicked-off by the signing of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding expires. According to Iran’s ambassador to China a new fee regime is being designed in consultation with Oman and will include “special considerations” for China and other friendly nations in determining the level and type of fee applied. According to the ambassador, this is not a toll. This might prove be a convenient fiction for all parties given President Trump’s unyielding view that a permanent toll regime would not be acceptable after the 60-day negotiating period expires.

Critically, what this little titbit sets up is exactly the type of scenario we have been pointing towards for some time: the ‘oil market’ splitting into ‘oil markets’ with terms over pricing and access being determined by which geopolitical camp you happen to sit in, and a series of quid pro quos informing the deal that each party gets.

The prime movers here are the United States and China, with Iran having clearly chosen China and the UAE hitching its wagon to the US of A. An easy tell that this scenario is playing out will be pressure from Iran to have other Gulf producers accept a toll that isn’t a toll, and/or have their cargoes priced in CNY rather than USD. The USA, similarly, will pressure Gulf allies to price in Dollars and normalize relations with Israel to expand the Abraham Accords and have oil flow from east to west to cut out Iran entirely and demonstrate to China that Uncle Sam can step on the hose whenever he likes.

Europe and the balance of Asia are likely to be reduced to the role of spectators in these affairs. Highlighting the weakness of Europe’s current position in the Great Game, the Wall Street Journal carried a story last week on how the German Mittelstand is being decimated by state-backed Chinese competition, with the most energy-exposed sectors of the manufacturing economy faring particularly badly.

To a certain extent, the hollowing out of German industry at the hands of China mirrors the hollowing-out of British finance at the hands of the United States as more and more firms choose to list in New York in pursuit of higher multiples or are bought-up as value picks. This has elicited a response from the British Government in the form of the Mansion House compact aimed at encouraging pension funds to hold more British assets. If that fails, will the discussion then turn to capital controls under an Andy Burnham premiership?

Similarly, the rapid decline of the German Mittelstand will almost certainly elicit further protectionist measures from officials in Brussels who have just spent the last 18 months and more criticizing Washington for taking similar steps to protect American industry. In the absence of a hold-your-nose peace accord with Russia to reduce energy costs that will almost certainly not happen, what is Europe’s grand macro strategy to avoid being de-industrialised by China and vassalized by US energy and finance?

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 09:15

Norway's World Cup celebrations have hit royal status.

President Trump says the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool will be repaired by the same contractor after its brand-new liner began peeling just weeks after a $16 million renovation. Meanwhile, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul Pelosi, is facing a recommended hit-and-run charge after authorities say he crashed into a parked car and drove away....

Porsche To Eliminate 4,000 Jobs In Germany: Report

Germany was once the industrial engine of Europe, but years of disastrous climate change policies, high energy costs, and left-wing economic mismanagement have battered its manufacturing base. This pressure has been roiling the country's auto industry, where struggling carmakers are restructuring operations through workforce reductions, production cuts, and capacity reductions.

Germany's top financial newspaper, Handelsblatt, reports that Porsche is preparing another round of deep job cuts at its main factories as the sports car maker grapples with weak demand.

The company is considering eliminating as many as 4,000 additional jobs at its Zuffenhausen plant, the outlet said, citing people familiar with the matter. These reductions would come on top of previously agreed cuts impacting 3,900 jobs.

Porsche's Zuffenhausen plant in Stuttgart is home to the brand's core sports car production lines, including the 911, 718, and Taycan.

Administration and management roles are expected to be reduced the most, while Porsche may also cut capacity at its Weissach development site by up to 30%.

Last month, Porsche CEO Michael Leiters said the company plans to produce at a lower capacity than the roughly 280,000 cars sold last year. He stated that the company must "make money with fewer cars."

Porsche's profit eroded further in the first quarter as the automaker faced mounting pressure from tariffs, geopolitical turmoil, and gaps in its model lineup. The emergence of Chinese EV giants like BYD and Chery in Europe is another troubling development for EU automakers.

Porsche is part of the Volkswagen Group, where the VW CEO recently warned that more than 100,000 jobs could be eliminated in a massive overhaul.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 09:00

Beat the heat — and the high prices.

Beat the heat — and the high prices.

A highly controversial decision has the football community up in arms.

“Wellness is such a crucial part of being ready for the stage — and to fit into my Jovani gowns,” de Lesseps told The Post. 

Saylor's Strategy Sells 3,588 Bitcoin To Cover Preferred Dividends

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via Bitcoin Magazine.com,

Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin for $216 million to fund dividends on its preferred securities, the company disclosed in a Form 8-K on July 6, 2026.

The sale marks the largest bitcoin disposal in the company’s history and its most direct admission that its dividend obligations now shape its treasury.

Chairman Michael Saylor posted about the transaction on social media. As of July 5, the company held 843,775 bitcoin in its reserves and $2.55 billion in cash. Saylor said the proceeds covered second-quarter dividends on four preferred instruments and the full June payment on a fifth.

The disclosed sale funded quarterly dividends on STRF, STRE, STRK, and STRD. It also covered the monthly dividend on STRC. Together these securities form the core of what Strategy calls its Digital Credit business.

Each instrument carries a distinct payout structure. STRF, the senior tier, pays a fixed 10% annual dividend on a $100 stated amount. STRE pays 10% a year on a €100 stated amount, denominated in euros. 

STRK pays 8% and converts to common stock if shares reach $1,000. STRD pays 10% but is not cumulative, giving the board room to skip a payment. 

STRC sits in the middle of the stack and pays a variable rate near 12%, reset to keep the security trading close to its $100 par. The board recently shifted STRC to semi-monthly payments.

None of the preferred securities is backed by the company’s bitcoin. Each holds only a claim on residual assets.

Why Strategy is selling

Strategy is the largest corporate holder of bitcoin. The company has built its treasury through repeated stock and debt offerings. Its bitcoin sits at a cost basis near $63.9 billion, or roughly $75,700 a coin.

That model created a growing cash bill. The preferred securities pay dividends in cash, not bitcoin. Strategy’s software business does not generate enough to cover them. 

Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, estimated the annual dividend load at $1.5 billion. When cash reserves run short, the company must raise more capital or sell coins.

For years Saylor pledged to never sell. That stance ended in late May 2026. Strategy sold 32 bitcoin for about $2.5 million, its first disposal since 2022, to fund preferred dividends. 

The move broke the pledge and drew wide attention. Saylor framed it as a signal of commitment to preferred holders rather than a retreat from bitcoin. “Our goal is to make STRC the best credit instrument in the world,” he said at the time.

The July sale dwarfs that first step. At 3,588 coins and $216 million, it is roughly a hundred times larger.

According to the company’s latest filing, Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin between June 29 and July 5. About 1,363 Bitcoin were sold during the first two days of the program at an average price around $59,256, with another 2,225 Bitcoin sold over the following five days at $60,773.

Buying and selling at once

Strategy continues to accumulate even as it sells. After the May sale, the company bought 1,550 bitcoin for $101.3 million, nearly 50 times the size of the disposal. It made a $2 billion purchase in May and a $2.54 billion purchase in April. 

The pattern shows a firm that funds dividends from its stack while adding to it through fresh capital raises.

That approach depends on market access. Strategy can issue new preferred shares and common stock to raise cash. When those markets cooperate, the company avoids large sales. When they tighten, bitcoin becomes the source of funds. 

The July disposal suggests the second condition held during the quarter.

Last night, Saylor posted “Bitcoin is Digital Energy” on X, accompanied by Strategy’s orange-dot Bitcoin acquisition chart, prompting expectations that another SEC filing disclosing a new Bitcoin purchase is imminent. Traders have come to view these weekend posts as a recurring signal ahead of Strategy’s BTC accumulation announcements. This time, the announcement was about a bitcoin sale.

At the time of writing, Strategy shares are down 2% in premarket and bitcoin has dipped below $62,000.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 08:47

Fourteen cases of Legionnaires' disease have been reported in the neighborhoods of Carnegie Hall and Yorkville as of Sunday. The potentially fatal pneumonia-like illness hit Harlem last year.

Futures Rise As Tech Rebounds In Post-Holiday Catch Up

US equity futures point to a firmer cash open as traders return from the long weekend, but the bigger question is whether investors continue to rotate out of the crowded AI trade and into the broader market.  As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rise 0.4%, while Nasdaq 100 contract rise 1.1% as most Mag 7 names are in the green.  In premarket trading, chip/memory stocks rebound from last week's rout which follows the an 18% plunge in the GS High Beta Momentum (GSPRHIMO) basket over the last two sessions, on track for 2nd worst month in >15 years. This follows an APAC session on Monday which took a more downbeat view of the tech sector; South Korea’s Kospi index fell, having gained as much as 3% earlier. Memory chipmaker Samsung Electronics’s preliminary earnings Tuesday will provide further clues on demand for AI infrastructure and the durability of the sector’s growth narrative. The MSCI APAC index fell as much as 0.7% before returning to the unchanged mark. The Stoxx 600 has just slipped into negative territory, down 0.1%, after hitting another record high earlier in the session. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2% with the greenback firmer versus most G10 peers. Gains are most pronounced against the yen with USD/JPY venturing as high as 162.31 but still below last week’s multi-decade peak at 162.84. Treasuries are seeing a modest bid with the 10-year yield down 2 basis points at 4.46%. Oil prices fell as flows through the Strait of Hormuz persisted and OPEC+ signaled higher supplies, with Brent trading about 0.4% lower at $71.82 a barrel. Precious metals are on the back foot with spot gold and silver posting respective losses of 0.8% and 0.7%. Bitcoin is down 0.1%. Today's US economic data calendar includes June final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and June ISM services (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 11am

In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are mostly higher (Meta +1.4%, Tesla +1.3%, Amazon +0.7%, Alphabet +0.5%, Nvidia +0.3%, Microsoft is unchanged, Apple -0.6%). Chipmakers and other AI-related firms rise ahead of Samsung’s June quarter earnings and updates to SK Hynix Inc.’s massive ADR listing.

• Alibaba ADRs (BABA) inch about 1% higher after a federal judge ordered the Pentagon to give the company a reprieve from a law that caused all of its lobbyists to drop it as a client.
• Datadog (DDOG) falls 2.4% after Bernstein downgraded the software company to market perform, citing caution about the company’s earnings prospects.
• JB Hunt (JBHT) slips 1% after Morgan Stanley cut the recommendation on the freight carrier to underweight, saying the stock’s valuation is “unjustifiable” after a rally.
• Kosmos Energy (KOS) rises 4% after the firm provided updated guidance with second-quarter production at its Jubilee oil field in Ghana reaching about 72,000 barrels of oil per day.
• Opus Genetics (IRD) rises 2% after saying it reached alignment with the FDA on the design of its Phase 3 trial evaluating OPGx-LCA5 for LCA5-associated inherited retinal disease.
• Seer (SEER) climbs 33% after CEO Omid Farokhzad offered to buy the a biotechnology company.
• Zim Integrated’s US shares (ZIM) are down 6% after Ynet reported Sunday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a proposed sale was “not on the agenda,” without clarifying how it got the information.

This week presents key tests for tech leadership. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, likely prompting index-related repositioning. That same day, Samsung’s preliminary earnings are due. Then on Friday comes SK Hynix’s Nasdaq listing, which could be the biggest-ever first-time share sale by a foreign company. 

The events will take on added significance in a week that features a thin data calendar, while the US earnings season is yet to kick into gear. Global stocks have gone through a stretch of uneven trading as investors question whether the past quarter’s AI-driven rally has run too far and whether vast capital outlays are guaranteed to produce strong returns.

The macro calendar picks up on Wednesday with minutes from the Fed’s June meeting. They take on added significance after Warsh shortened the policy statement and declined to contribute to rate forecasts. Bloomberg Economics’ Andrew Sacher expects the account to reinforce the commitee’s focus on above-target inflation and its preference to preserve the option of further tightening. Further detail about Fed-think will likely guide equity positioning into the upcoming earnings season. BNY strategist Geoffrey Yu says the question is whether the Fed can stay patient without seeing inflation risks reemerge. 

Separately, SpaceX is due to join the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, an inclusion that may trigger some index-related repositioning.

“Speculative positioning in semiconductors and other hot technology themes is likely to continue being reduced,” said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank. “The key question will be whether this triggers a rotation into lagging sectors or a broader correction.”

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson thinks the market broadening story continues to gain momentum as chips underperform; he believes US stocks will struggle to reach new highs as investors rotate out of some of this year’s biggest tech trades. Wilson says momentum is fading in semiconductor stocks as investors shift toward laggards, including AI hyperscalers.  The steep fall in oil has helped to stabilize rates, which is another driver of the rotation to lagging areas of the market, he adds. He favors AI hyperscalers, consumer discretionary goods, transports, and biotech.

For Kokou Agbo-Bloua, global head of research at Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Banking, the market is increasingly learning to live with short-term volatility. “I wonder whether the market is becoming a bit more anti-fragile, in the sense of adapting the news flow and seeing through the noise and focusing on the fundamentals, especially with the whole AI boom and the ecosystem around it,” he said.

In a week with few major data releases, the key variable for Treasuries would be oil prices, said Francisco Simon, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management. “Specifically, whether the recent downward trend remains in place and whether the newsflow around energy markets continues to stabilize,” Simon said. “Central bank communication could also move markets, although in the absence of significant new developments we would not expect a major shift in tone.”

Defense is also back on traders’ radar ahead of the two-day NATO summit starting in Turkey tomorrow. Trump meets Ukraine’s Zelenskyy there on Wednesday.

European shares slip following Friday’s record close. Stoxx 600 falls 0.2% to 651.15 as investors digest a slate of M&A news, with EasyJet jumping after agreeing to a takeover offer from Castlelake. ITV rose after agreeing to sell an arm to Sky, while Thales has said it wants to buy Exail. Media stocks are outperforming, followed by autos. Utilities and construction sectors are the biggest laggards. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• EasyJet shares jump as much as 11% after the budget airline accepted a takeover offer from US private equity firm Castlelake at 690p a share.
• Carlsberg shares gain as much as 3.7% after the Danish brewer and Sapporo agreed to form a strategic joint venture.
• DWS and Amundi shares rise to record highs after Morgan Stanley and Citi raise their price targets on the asset management firms.
• Schott Pharma jumps as much as 11% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy from hold, citing accelerating growth for the German pharma packaging company in 3Q and 4Q, accompanied by improving margins.
• Nemetschek shares rise as much as 5.7% after Deutsche Bank resumed coverage of the software company with a buy recommendation.
• ITV shares rise as much as 2.4% after the company agreed to sell its Media and Entertainment arm to Sky.
• JCDecaux shares rise as much as 3.8% as Oddo BHF (outperform) says it expects the outdoor advertising company’s second-quarter results to turn out better than expected due to the end of the conflict in the Middle East.
• OC Oerlikon gains as much as 9.5% as Oddo BHF upgrades the Swiss industrial technology company to outperform from neutral on increased estimates for FY26 that exceed the company’s own guidance.
• Exail shares rise as much as 4.2% after Thales said it intends to make a tender offer for the French maker of mine-destroying sea drones following its agreement to buy the Gorgé family’s 35.51% stake.
• BE Semiconductor shares slip as much as 7.7% on Monday after South Korea news outlet ZDNet reported that chipmakers may further delay the full adoption of an advanced chip packaging technology.
• Close Brothers Group declined as much as 9.3%, after JPMorgan downgraded to sector perform from outperform, saying that the UK motor finance issue has become increasingly uncertain.

Stocks in Asia fluctuated, with Samsung Electronics to come under scrutiny when the chipmaker releases earnings on Tuesday after a 165% year-to-date rally. The report will be followed days later by SK Hynix Inc.’s $28 billion US listing.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between narrow gains and losses. South Korea’s Kospi index fell, having gained as much as 3% earlier. Memory chipmaker Samsung Electronics Co.’s preliminary earnings Tuesday will provide further clues on demand for AI infrastructure and the durability of the sector’s growth narrative. “The market is in a holding pattern ahead of Samsung’s preliminary results, which is the centerpiece of what’s shaping up to be a semiconductor super week,” said Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group. If the results disappoint, “the conversation shifts to whether this is a cyclical pause or the beginning of something more structural.”  Bucking the trend, Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong rose for a third day, up more than 1%. Tencent Holdings was the top contributor, after JPMorgan said it expects its stock to rebound thanks to its AI agent launch in Weixin. Japan’s Topix index rose to another all-time high, supported by defense stocks on signs of government policy tailwinds.  In South Korea, the government is looking at creating an investment fund using excess tax revenue from the semiconductor industry to finance long-term economic growth, according to a senior official. Investors are also turning their attention to SK Hynix Inc.’s listing of $29 billion American depositary receipts later this week. Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• Tencent shares rise after JPMorgan said it expects the company’s stock price to rebound thanks to its AI agent launch in Weixin. Chinese brokerage stocks rise on earnings optimism.
• Shares of Sanrio, owner of the Hello Kitty brand, climbed 6.2% after an analyst report touted an increase in social media followers of its intellectual property.
• Shares of Kanzhun rise as much as 4.8% after JPMorgan initiates coverage on its H-share with an overweight rating, saying AI will be a major driver in increasing the online recruitment company’s long-term average revenue per use.
• Shenzhen Xunce Technology shares rise as much as 15% in Hong Kong after the company said it entered into a MOU on strategic cooperation with Gechuang Dongzhi (Shenzhen) Technology to expand data tokenization capabilities into industrial smart manufacturing.
• Shanghai Biren Technology shares fall as much as 9.9% to the lowest since May 19 after the company raised HK$7.07 billion ($901 million) in gross proceeds by placing 153 million new H shares at HK$46.20 each.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2% with the greenback firmer versus most G10 peers. Gains are most pronounced against the yen with USD/JPY venturing as high as 162.31 but still below last week’s multi-decade peak at 162.84. The yen lost ground against all major currencies as traders tested the resolve of Japanese authorities to intervene. Goldman Sachs joined the growing ranks of investors and strategists who are increasingly bearish on the yen, which is already trading around its lowest levels since 1986. The Wall Street bank revised its 12-month forecast to 165 from 155, reflecting fiscal pressures in Japan, higher-for-longer Treasury yields and only gradual rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, strategist Karen Reichgott Fishman noted.  

In rates, treasuries are seeing a modest bid with the 10-year yield down 2 basis points at 4.46%. Treasury futures hold small gains accumulated during Asia session and London morning, led by front-end and belly tenors as oil prices remain near three-month lows and stock futures advance. US intermediate yields are 3bp-4bp richer on the day, steepening 5s30s spread by 2.5bp; 10-year, around 2bp richer near 4.46%, outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by 2bp and 2.5bp respectively. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few names already. Dealer forecasts for this month are around $100 billion, with around $25 billion lined up for this week. This week’s Treasury auctions start Tuesday with $58 billion 3-year new issue, followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday. US session includes June ISM services gauge and scheduled remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. 

In commodities, WTI oil is holding below $69 a barrel after seven OPEC+ members agreed on Sunday to increase their collective production quotas by a modest 188,000 barrels a day for next month, adding to the prospect of more supply eventually hitting the market if a US-Iran peace pact can stick. Shipping through a US-protected corridor in the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of recovery. Precious metals are on the back foot with spot gold and silver posting respective losses of 0.8% and 0.7%. Bitcoin slides back under $62000 on news Michael Saylor's Strategy sold 3,588 in the past week.   

US economic data calendar includes June final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and June ISM services (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Waller at 11am. Bloomberg Economics expects the ISM services index to have remained in expansionary territory, but to have softened after jumping to 54.5 in May. A modest decline in orders growth likely led to a deceleration in production activity.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Shipping along a US-protected corridor near Oman in the Strait of Hormuz recovered after some vessels earlier performed unexplained U-turns and detours. OPEC+ backed another modest rise in quotas for next month. BBG
• Ukraine is striking Russian energy infrastructure at an unprecedented rate, according to an FT data analysis showing that Kyiv’s intensified drone campaign is spurring Russia’s worst fuel crisis in decades. FT
• Ukraine’s capital Kyiv came under a deadly Russian attack early Monday morning, on the eve of a critical NATO summit in Turkey that US President Donald Trump plans to attend. CNN
• World powers are pouring billions into AI, drones, hypersonic missiles and space technologies in a race to dominate the battlefields of the future. BBG
• A year ago, the message from many business leaders was that AI was going to wipe out jobs. For the past month or so, tech CEOs have been striking a more optimistic tone. WSJ
• South Korea is looking at creating an investment fund using excess tax revenue from its chip industry to finance long-term economic growth. BBG
• Chinese tech giants including Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent have all announced plans to disable AI persona features as Beijing tightens its regulatory framework on the rapidly advancing AI industry. Nikkei
• The yen should be about 20% stronger at around 130 per dollar, former Japan currency chief Tatsuo Yamasaki said. BBG
• Large investors are committing billions of dollars to private credit funds as big institutions seek to profit from an exodus of smaller retail clients. North American direct lending funds that seek to attract institutional clients raised at least $16bn in the second quarter. FT
• Goldman Sachs sees USD/JPY at 165.00 in a year's time, raising its forecast from 155.00, citing Japan's interest rate differentials with the US

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks initially started the session with broad gains but reversed as the session continued, with a busy week ahead, which includes Samsung Electronics' Q2 earnings and SK Hynix's US listing. ASX 200 managed to limit its downside, and only posted modest losses, as upside in Energy and Health Care broadly offset the downside seen in Consumer Staples and Mining names. Further on the mining topic, Genesis Minerals made a AUD 5.6bln bid for Vault Minerals, hijacking a deal previously made with Regis Resources. Nikkei 225 was softer as it continued to pull back from its ATH of 72,832. Kioxia was one of the big underperformers, after the Co. began shipping sample next-gen semiconductor products. KOSPI was under significant pressure, despite initially printing gains of as much as 2.9%, with Samsung set to report Q2 figures on Tuesday; operating profit expected to print at KRW 86tln. However, a miss would be detrimental to tech valuations, since doubts have crept in over the scale and durability of AI demand and capex. Shanghai Comp. traded either side of the unchanged mark while the Hang Seng posted decent gains. Alibaba found some comfort after a US federal judge ordered the Pentagon to give the Co. a reprieve from a lobbying ban tied to the Pentagon's curbs on Chinese companies.

Top Asian News

• Apple (AAPL) supplier Luxshare (002475 CH) reportedly plans pricing its Hong Kong listing at the top end, Bloomberg reported.
• SK Hynix (000660 KS) is to raise KRW 43tln in ADR listing.
• Meituan's (3690 HK) LongCat-2.0 has been officially open-sourced, and domestic chip manufacturers are collectively adapting to it, Chinese press reported.
• Honda's (7267 JT) China unit reported June vehicles sales of 32.5k units, -44.5% Y/Y.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) have traded on either side of the unchanged mark throughout the morning, with a lack of pertinent catalysts driving the action. European sectors are mixed but with a positive bias. Leading the table is Media, helped by ITV (+1%), Travel and Leisure is helped by easyJet (+10%), while European tech underperforms after modest losses in APAC (ASML -1.5%, STMicroelectronics -1.5%). For easyJet, the co. agreed in principle to Castlelake’s fifth takeover bid, at GBP 6.90/shr in cash. Stateside, futures play catch-up after US stocks were closed on Friday for US Independence Day. NQ +1% outperforms after broad tech gains on Friday, ES +0.4%, and RTY +0.2% also green.

Top European News

• UK Defence Minister Jarvis told POLITICO he wants Burnham’s administration to lay out the full pathway to spending 3.5% of GDP on defense at the next spending review, due spring 2027.
• France is said to have softened its stance of possible sale of SAMP/T air defence system (HO FP) to Turkey, according to sources.
• CVC's (CVC NA) sale of marina group D-Marin is said to be valued at EUR 1-1.5bln, FT reported, citing sources

FX

• Lack of macro catalysts with geopolitical news light as US-Iran negotiations pause for the former Supreme Leader’s funeral processions. The Buck today is seemingly attracting carry demand as we near summer trade, where ING notes G7 FX volatility is close to the lower end of long-term ranges. DXY currently trades near highs, within a 100.82 to 101.13 range.
• JPY is the clear underperformer, as it attempts to return to recent lows against most peers. Specifically, USD/JPY +0.5% on the day as the Buck outperforms against low yielders and after unconvincing potential intervention over the past week. USD/JPY sees its first resistance at 162.50 to the upside; thereafter, the next significant level is the 1st July high of 162.84.
• Antipodeans are mixed, Aussie outperforms as it attracts carry demand as mentioned above, while Kiwi is one of the G10 laggards as hawkish bets unwind ahead of the RBNZ policy announcement on Wednesday. Ahead of the meeting, the NZIER Shadow Board recommended that the RBNZ hold the OCR at 2.25%, against the market consensus of a 25bp hike to 2.50%. AUD/NZD +0.4% and approaches 1.2200.
• South Korean Finance Minister said the BoK is to closely monitor the impact and movements of KRW's 24-hour trade.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are mildly firmer this morning, taking leads from lower energy prices. Price action has been fairly lacklustre this morning, with the European session ultimately seeing sideways action.
• USTs (+4 ticks) are firmer this morning and hold within a 109-17 to 109-24 range; currently holding towards the upper end of the day’s range. US-specific newsflow has been lacking this morning, but will likely pick up in the form of US Final PMIs and then the more closely watched ISM Services thereafter. On that front, the headline is expected to pare to 54.0 (prev. 54.5), prices paid at 69.0 (prev. 71.3), and new orders at 57.0 (prev. 57.3).
• Bunds (+8 ticks) and Gilts (+5 ticks) both trade with mild gains, but with action ultimately non-committal. Both benchmarks are off their best levels and trading towards the mid-point of their respective 126.59-126.82 and 88.81-89.12 ranges.
• For Europe specifically, the EZ Sentix Investor Confidence topped expectations (-3.1 vs exp. -14.5), though not all too surprising given the recently signed US-Iran MoU. Sentix stated that “The slump in sentiment caused by the Iran conflict is slowly being overcome. The German government's latest reform efforts are having an impact”. On the data front, EZ PPI Y/Y printed a touch above the expected, as did Retail Sales – no move was seen on the data.
• BoJ announces its outright bond purchase operation in-line with its plan. Offers to buy JPY 100bln of <1yr JGBs. Offers to buy JPY 335bln of 5-10yr JGBs. Offers to buy JPY 100bln of 10-25yr JGBs

Commodities

• WTI Aug and Brent Sep futures are ultimately on a softer footing following choppy APAC and European morning trade. Macro catalysts remain quiet, further compounded by a temporary lull in geopolitical headlines, driving a steady unwinding of the war premium that supported prices throughout H1 2026. WTI resides towards the lower end of a USD 67.82-69.21/bbl range, while Brent sits at the bottom end of a USD 71.02-72.45/bbl parameter.
• Elsewhere, metals are mixed with precious metals softer after last week seeing its first weekly gain since May, supported by fading Fed rate hike expectations following the soft US jobs data, and lower energy prices. Meanwhile, overnight, it was reported that Hong Kong's pension fund will be able to invest in more gold ETFs as part of the government's push to make the city a gold trading hub, SCMP reports, citing sources. SCMP earlier reported that Hong Kong is to reportedly launch a gold clearing and settlement system.
• Price action this morning saw the yellow metal find resistance around the USD 4,200/oz mark, currently residing in a USD 4,144-4,202/oz range, with US traders set to return from their long weekend, and with ISM Services PMI ahead.
• In terms of base metals, copper futures are rising for a third consecutive session in a USD 13,361.53- 13,464.00/t range, whilst aluminium extends a rebound from a four-month low, supported by fading Fed rate hike bets after Fed Chair Warsh last week said price risks were easing.
• Goldman Sachs lowered its LME aluminium price forecast to USD 2,950/t for Q4 2026 and lowered its 2027 average forecast to USD 2,700/t. Goldman Sachs cuts its 2026 aluminium supply deficit forecast to 100k tonnes and raises its 2027 supply surplus forecast to about 1.5mln.
• Infrastructure has reportedly been damaged in the region of Russia's Ust-Luga and Vysotsk oil ports after a drone attack.
• UK ministers are reconsidering a ban on crop-based biofuels for aviation following a lobbying tour of the US Corn Belt by government officials, the FT reported.
• A power outage has been reported at Marathon Petroleum's (MPC) Detroit refinery, causing controlled gas burning, according to local media.
• Hong Kong's pension fund will be able to invest in more gold ETFs as part of the government's push to the city into a gold trading hub, SCMP reported citing sources.
• South Korean prosecutors say refiners colluded to hike prices despite ample oil reserves, Yonhap reported.
• A fleet of 10 Japan-related ships have reportedly left the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data shows.
• Israel's energy minister said Israel is launching a new competitive process to search for more natural gas in the country's economic waters.

Central Banks

• New Zealand NZIER Shadow Board recommends that the RBNZ holds the OCR at 2.25%.
• PBoC injected CNY 7bln via 7-day reverse repos with rate maintained at 1.40%.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8066 vs exp. 6.7850 (prev. 6.8047).
• Swiss Total Sight Deposits (w/e Jul 3) 479.2bln (prev. 474.4bln W/W), Domestic 440.9bln (prev. 440.6bln W/W).

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukraine's military said it has struck its oil refineries in Russia's Yaroslavl and Leningrad regions.
• EU's von der Leyen said EU is working to seal the 21st Russian sanctions package in the next days.
• Infrastructure has reportedly been damaged in the region of Russia's Ust-Luga and Vysotsk oil ports after a drone attack.
• Russian Defense Ministry said 519 Ukrainian drones were shot down over the regions overnight.
• A Ukrainian official said the death toll in Kyiv has risen to 9 after the recent Russian attacks.
• US President Trump is to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.
• Kyiv Mayor said the city is under a Russian missile attack with one residence badly damaged.
• A Russian official said the Ukrainian attack cuts the electricity to Sevastopol in Crimea, AFP reported.
• Several Russian ballistic missiles have struck Kyiv, with explosions being heard, according to an FT reporter.

Geopolitics: Iran

• Islamabad is the more likely option for the next round of US-Iran technical talks, with July 11th expected to be the date, sources tell Pakistani newspaper Dawn, according to Fox. Negotiations are expected to focus on Iran's nuclear programme, frozen Iranian assets, the Strait of Hormuz and the Lebanon ceasefire.
• Israeli Defence Minister Katz said any Iranian leader who tries again to promote plans to destroy Israel will be thwarted; Israel is prepared to defend itself again, with its own forces, at any time and against every threat.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said a ceasefire in Gaza will be part of the second phase of the agreement with the US.
• Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said the US memorandum is 'difficult but possible' to enforce, Al Jazeera reported.
• The Israeli occupation army carries out a bombing operation in the town of Houla in southern Lebanon.
• Israeli Army Chief of Staff Zamir said that the Israeli army will continue its operations to eliminate threats from Lebanese soil.
• Israeli airstrikes hit multiple towns in southern Lebanon.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: United States Jun F S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 51.3, prior 51.3
• 9:45 am: United States Jun F S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 52.2, prior 52.2
• 10:00 am: United States Jun ISM Services Index, est. 54, prior 54.5
• 11:00 am: United States Fed’s Waller, ECB’s Schnabel, Wunsch, Riksbank’s Seim in Rome

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I hope your weekend was good. Mine was certainly a big WOW! 8.5 months after back fusion surgery I won both the scratch and handicap 2-day over 50s club championship. I shot 72 and 71 (one over gross). It took Tiger Woods two years after the same fusion surgery to win The Masters so I'm seeing this as a greater achievement. My twins were very impressed with the two huge cups I brought home and have earmarked winning the same event. They qualify in 2068! I wonder if England will have won the football World Cup again by then. I did get up to watch the second half which has just finished as I type this. A crazy win against Mexico. To all the readers in Norway, see you on Saturday!

Moving on, the week after payrolls is usually a quieter affair but there's plenty of global events even if the US calendar is light. In terms of the main highlights, given the current focus on monetary policy the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and the ECB’s June meeting account (Thursday) will be carefully watched, especially the former given it was the first of the new Warsh regime. Speeches from Fed Governors Waller (Monday), Williams and Logan (Thursday) will provide a more "live" update to the committees' thinking. Elsewhere, China inflation data (Thursday) and a run of German activity indicators including factory orders (today), industrial production (tomorrow) and trade (Thursday) are worth tracking. German reforms in recent weeks have offered some renewed optimism that we will finally see the benefits of the huge fiscal spending and reform agenda after scepticism had been building. Geopolitically, the NATO summit (Tuesday–Wednesday) will also be in focus, with Mr Trump in attendance, and could generate plenty of headlines.

In terms of other data and events, today sees ISM services (Monday) which follows the recent weakness in manufacturing, where our economists expect a modest improvement. Most of the other data in the US is second tier but includes existing home sales on Thursday. Outside of the US, the BoE’s financial stability report (tomorrow) will be interesting, while inflation prints from Sweden (Wednesday) and Denmark and Norway (Friday) deserve a glance. In Japan, the data flow includes labour cash earnings and household spending (tomorrow), the Economy Watchers survey (Wednesday) and PPI (Friday). Elsewhere, we will see the RBNZ policy decision (Wednesday), where our economists expect a rate hike, and Canada’s labour market report (Friday).

In Asia, it's all eyes on the KOSPI at the moment after a pretty wild time of late. After being up 3% early in the session, it's now -1.86% as I type with the Nikkei -1.18% lower. The Shanghai Comp is -0.35% with the ASX -0.22%. However, the Hang Seng is +1.16%. S&P (+0.23%) and Nasdaq (+0.76%) futures are up but are roughly around Friday's levels when the US was on holiday.

Recapping last week now and markets saw a decent risk-on move, with the S&P 500 posting its best weekly performance since early May, with a +1.76% advance. That came amidst several dovish headlines, which meant investors priced out the chance of an imminent rate cut. For instance, Fed Chair Warsh said that inflation risks had come down at the Sintra Forum on Wednesday. And then on Thursday, the US jobs report showed payrolls up +57k, which was weaker than expected (even if unemployment was a tenth lower than expected). So collectively, that meant market pricing for a July hike fell from a 30% chance to 22% over the course of the week. And that dovish repricing was clear further out the curve, as the amount of hikes priced by the December meeting also came down slightly from 32bps to 30bps.   

Over in Europe there was a similar trend, with the STOXX 600 up +2.66% (+0.68% Friday) to a new record. That came as markets grew more doubtful about another ECB rate hike this year, with the latest flash CPI print also surprising on the downside. It showed headline inflation falling more than expected to +2.8% in June, and core CPI also falling to +2.4%. So markets also priced out the chance of another ECB rate hike by December, which fell from a 96% to an 83% chance over the week.  

But even though equities did quite well on the whole, there were still clear pockets of weakness, most notably in the chip sector. Indeed, the Philly semiconductor index fell -4.37%, losing ground for a second week running. Interestingly as well, the dovish repricing failed to prevent a move up in longer-dated yields, with the 10yr Treasury yield up +11.5bps last week to 4.48%, whilst the 10yr German yield rose +8.4bps to 2.93%.  

Finally, oil prices were comparatively steady last week, and Brent crude saw little movement with a +0.18% gain (+0.45% Friday), leaving it at $72.12/bbl. Otherwise, credit spreads tightened across the board, with US IG (-1bps) and HY (-15bps) spreads both coming down. It was a similar story in Europe too, where Euro IG (-1bps) and HY (-2bps) spreads also tightened.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 08:28

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani embarrassingly botched the spelling of the veteran NYPD officer who was shot in the back this weekend — despite announcing he had just visited the father-of-three in the hospital. Hizzoner misspelled Detective Robert Karroll’s last name three times in a social media post, wrongly spelling the veteran officer’s name...

China CXMT Testing Production Line for Next-Gen Bonded DRAM, Closing Tech Gap With Korea "Far Faster Than Expected"

According to Korea's Hankgyung, China’s largest memory company, CXMT, which is preparing to IPO in the coming weeks, is currently testing a pilot production line for bonded DRAM in Hefei (the heart of China's semiconductor industry), aiming to achieve high-performance DRAM without using advanced EUV lithography, which is currently monopolized by Dutch ASML and faces unprecedented export controls (although according to Reuters, China has already built a prototype EUV machine).

Bonded DRAM is a technology in which the memory cell array and the peripheral circuitry are fabricated on separate wafers and then bonded together, as explained here. This approach enables the production of ultra-high-density DRAM using only deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography with multi-patterning, eliminating the need for EUV tools.

Samsung Electronics is also developing its own bonded DRAM under the “B1b” project, while SK Hynix is pursuing a similar technology. However, Korean media warn that there are assessments suggesting CXMT may currently hold an edge over its Korean rivals in both the technology itself and the speed of development.

According to the Korean outlet, Chinese memory chipmakers CXMT (DRAM) and YMTC (NAND) - which just two years ago were nothing more than firms struggling to manufacture low-end chips and suffering trillions of won in losses annually - have recently undergone a dramatic transformation and have "closed the technology gap with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix far faster than expected", from roughly a 5-year lag down to about 3 years, despite US export controls blocking access to advanced EUV lithography equipment.

Here are the key details :

• CXMT's secret R&D push: At its Hefei facility, CXMT has secretly begun building an R&D line for next-generation "bonded DRAM," aiming to commercialize it before Korean rivals. This project aims to develop and produce next-generation memory semiconductors known as "bonding DRAM." These are considered "memory semiconductor game changers" because they can maximize performance and capacity. The company reportedly has recruited top-tier engineers with the explicit goal of beating Korea to market. 
• Rapid market gains: As recently as 2024, Chinese firms were seen as low-end, loss-making commodity suppliers. By Q1 2026, CXMT's share of the global DRAM market reportedly jumped to 8%, and it's said to be under consideration as a new DRAM supplier for Apple.
• HBM ambitions: CXMT is pushing into high-bandwidth memory (HBM), converting about 20% of production lines toward HBM3/HBM3E development, working around the lack of EUV tools by using advanced multi-patterning with older DUV equipment.
• NAND patents — China ahead: YMTC's proprietary "Xtacking" wafer-bonding technology gave it an early lead in hybrid bonding patents — the article cites YMTC holding 119 core patents versus Samsung's 83 and SK Hynix's 11 (as of 2023) — to the point that Samsung reportedly licensed patents from YMTC for its next-gen NAND roadmap.
• Next-gen tech race: Beyond HBM, China is pursuing "post-HBM" CXL (Compute Express Link) memory, with CXMT working with domestic fabless firm Montage Technology on controllers, leveraging its server DDR5 experience.
• IPO push: Both CXMT and YMTC are moving toward public listings (CXMT possibly on the Shanghai exchange as soon as this month) to fund expansion beyond government subsidies.
• Expert warnings: Seoul National University professor Hwang Chul-sung called Chinese semiconductors "the biggest future threat to Korea." Another professor warned that once Chinese AI chipmakers like Huawei begin adopting domestic memory for real-world use, yield and reliability could improve faster than expected. A POSTECH professor argued Korea must lock in an unmatched technology lead in next-gen memory and packaging before the "golden time" created by U.S. sanctions runs out.

Also noted: Huawei's May-unveiled "Tau's Law" concept, which reportedly focuses on cutting data transfer time (rather than transistor miniaturization) to boost overall AI chip system performance — seen as a potentially disruptive alternative approach.

NAND flash and the hybrid bonding patent gap

The article frames this as the area where warning signs are already flashing red. Samsung and SK Hynix currently lead volume production in the 200-to-300+ layer NAND range, which underpins high-value products like enterprise SSDs. But pushing past 400 layers runs into physical limits, making "wafer-to-wafer (W2W) hybrid bonding" a must-have process — a technique that fuses two wafers directly, connecting circuits vertically without conductive bumps between chips.

China's YMTC got there first. Its proprietary "Xtacking" architecture, the world's first of its kind to reach commercialization, has scaled from 160-layer to the newest 270-layer NAND in mass production. On core patents, YMTC reportedly holds 119 versus Samsung's 83 and SK Hynix's 11 (2023 figures) — enough of a lead that Samsung, the NAND market leader, reportedly had to sign a patent licensing deal with YMTC to develop its next-generation "V10" triple-stack NAND (430+ layers).

The CXL / "post-HBM" race

Beyond memory's current HBM cycle, the article describes China moving fast on CXL (Compute Express Link) DRAM, described as the "post-HBM" technology. CXMT is said to be leveraging its experience mass-producing server DDR5 to formally launch into CXL 3.0 development, and is partnering with domestic fabless chip designer Montage Technology to secure the controller technology that's central to CXL products.

This sits alongside CXMT's other next-gen bet: "bonded DRAM," which separates the memory-cell layer and the peripheral control layer onto two different wafers before joining them - a way to boost density and performance without needing EUV lithography (which U.S. export controls block China from importing).

CXMT is reportedly piloting this at a Hefei line using older deep-ultraviolet (DUV) tools plus multi-patterning instead. Samsung (via its "B1b" project) and SK Hynix are working on their own bonded-DRAM equivalents, but the article notes some assessments actually rate CXMT ahead of the Korean firms on speed and technical maturity here.

A POSTECH professor is quoted arguing Korea's current supply-chain lead owes a lot to U.S. sanctions on China, and that Korean chipmakers need to lock in an irreplaceable technology edge in next-gen memory and packaging before that sanctions-driven "golden window" closes.

The report prompted BCA strategist Peter Berezin to remind the world that technological progress has a way of making the return on massive capital spending vaporize on very short notice: "We managed to achieve massive growth in internet traffic without having to spend much more on internet infrastructure because the transmission technologies became much better. Why won’t there be similar technological innovations that dramatically lower the cost of producing memory?"

The internet is a good example here. We managed to achieve massive growth in internet traffic without having to spend much more on internet infrastructure because the transmission technologies became much better. Why won’t there be similar technological innovations that… https://t.co/bXKLkulcak pic.twitter.com/MrkmYzVpHD

— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) July 5, 2026

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, Michael "Big Short" Burry disclosed a new short position against US chip leader Micron in a Substack post dated July 2. Burry stated that the puts "seemed expensive," so he shorted the stock directly and would add puts if volatility eases. He identified his disclosed entry at $1,052 per share.

The Micron short adds to a broader campaign. On June 30, Burry disclosed shorts against NVIDIA, Applied Materials, and the SOXX Semiconductor ETF, arguing that AI-related chip stocks may be due for a 30% correction. 

Burry argues that Micron, whose shares are up 242% year to date with a market cap near $1.17 trillion, has reached "historically extreme" levels, with Micron stock more extended above its 200-day moving average than at any point since 1984, "not even during the dot-com peak."

Burry stated, "Micron defines cyclical like no other," citing 34 drawdowns of more than 30% over 42 years, a median return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4%, and return on equity (ROE) of 7%, which he called "frankly terrible." He added that "one quarter in every three, Micron is a destroyer of capital," with free cash flow negative 48% of the time.

His view: the move reflects fear of missing out (FOMO) and greater-fool dynamics around high-bandwidth memory (HBM) being "sold out through 2026." The timing carries some irony given President Trump praised Micron for a $250 million Trump Accounts commitment, and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra highlighted more than $200 billion in U.S. memory investment. 

That said, the bull case remains formidable. Micron, whose stock recently became the most actively traded in the US...

... posted Q3 FY26 revenue of $41.46 billion, up 346% year over year (YoY), and guided Q4 revenue to approximately $50 billion per its 8-K filing. Mehrotra stated results "reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era." Analysts carry an average MU stock price target of $1,486, with 30 Buy and 9 Strong Buy ratings.

Still, while sellside analysts are rushing over each other to raise their earnings estimates, one wonders how many have considered the risk that Chinese memory production and technology not only catches up to Korea, but surpasses it, and in a few years, all the massive memory production ends up in yet another historic glut of what is, despite all the rhetoric to the contrary, just another commodity. 

* * * Next-level Wagyu, now at ZeroHedge Store

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/06/2026 - 08:10

"Good Morning America" co-hosts who attended the star-studded nuptials revealed over the weekend that the couple read vows from "little books."

"Good Morning America" co-hosts who attended the star-studded nuptials revealed over the weekend that the couple read vows from "little books."

The Duke of Sussex's rep said it is "disappointing" that the offer "has now been withdrawn."