Aggregator
Food Retailers Troubled By This Chart
Consumer staples and food retail equity analyst Scott Marks at Jefferies told clients Saturday that one of the most concerning charts for food retailers is the sharp decline in average benefits per SNAP participant under the Trump administration, as the USDA intensifies efforts to root out fraud, waste, and abuse.
SNAP's elevated payment error rates are setting up a new fiscal fight between the Trump administration and states.
Marks said food retailers are caught in the crosshairs:
SNAP error rates set up state cost-sharing showdown. USDA last week released FY2025 SNAP payment error rates, showing a national rate of 10.62% (a modest improvement vs. FY2024) that still translates to roughly $10B in improper payments, with all but 10 states landing above the 6% congressional threshold.
Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, FY2025 marks the first year of data that can be used to determine state cost-sharing obligations beginning October 2027, when states above the threshold will be on the hook for 5%, 10%, or 15% of their benefit costs depending on tier.
Combined with already-falling SNAP participants (down ~11.6% y/y to ~37.3mm recipients in March on tighter work requirements), the looming cost shift raises the risk of further benefit tightening or eligibility friction at the state level, which would be an incremental headwind for food retailers and center-store packaged food categories most exposed to SNAP spend.
Here's the chart:
Value-focused food retailers such as Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Family Dollar, 7-Eleven, WinCo Foods, Save A Lot and Food 4 Less are among the most exposed to SNAP spending.
Major grocery and retail names with meaningful SNAP exposure include Walmart, Kroger, Albertsons, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Costco Wholesale, BJ's Wholesale Club and Ahold Delhaize, the parent of Food Lion, Giant, Stop & Shop, Hannaford and other U.S. grocery brands.
The Trump administration continues to purge SNAP of fraud, waste, abuse and, of course, illegal aliens. Since President Trump signed the OBBBA into law one year ago, enrollment in the food program has fallen to just 37 million people, down 5 million from a year earlier.
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Putin Invites Trump To Visit Russia In 'Constructive' July 4th Phone Call
A nearly 90-minute phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin on July 4th could signal shifting White House priorities, as it tries to find permanent offramp and settlement in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, but also as the Ukraine war seems to be fast heating up again.
Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said in comments made public Sunday that Trump offered Putin to help find a solution to the war in Ukraine.
Shutterstock, Sputnik via EPA"The American president once again confirmed his readiness to work towards a rapid end to the fighting and find solutions to overcome the crisis," Ushakov said of Trump's call. He called conversation "business-like and quite constructive."
The spokesman further stated that Russia sought "a political-diplomatic resolution of the conflict, with due account of Russia's fundamental approach."
But Ushakov also lashed out at the Zelensky government, accusing it and its European allies of "counting on extending and even escalating the conflict, and on terrorism against civilians."
This referred to the fact that Ukraine's repeat drone strikes deep inside Russian territory have severely damaged energy infrastructure, as well as hit residential buildings and areas, resulting in casualties.
Ushakov further described that in the call Putin "depicted the real situation on the battlefield where the Russian armed forces are confidently advancing, liberating one locality after another."
Putin had also apparently renewed his initial Alaska Summit invitation for Trump to visit Russia, where further bilateral dialogue can take place, Axios noted.
Trump on Saturday had also held a call with Ukrainian President Zelensky, who later said on Telegram the talk was "very good". Zelensky stated that "There is a real prospect to end this war and American resolve will have a crucial meaning."
Zelensky and Trump are expected to continue the discussion at the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, set for July 7-8.
Zelensky had further taken the opportunity to highlight some of the latest weapons support from Washington: "We are grateful to the United States for all the assistance we have received – from Javelins and Patriots to political support – and we deeply value that America stands by us in defending our independence. I am grateful to every American heart that cares about the future of Ukraine, Europe, and everyone around the world for whom freedom matters," he said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin called President Trump and congratulated him for the U.S. 250 independence day. The Kremlin says the call lasted an hour and a half. Putin invited Trump to visit Russia https://t.co/ZOfR0tE4fv
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) July 4, 2026Currently each warring side disputes the degree to which Russian forces are advancing. Supporters on either side have even been issuing contradictory battlefield maps, and the fog of war is thick.
Tyler Durden Sun, 07/05/2026 - 11:05