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As Diesel Crack Explodes Higher, DNB Warns Beijing Has "Little Reason" To Rescue The West

Zero Rss
1 month 2 weeks ago
As Diesel Crack Explodes Higher, DNB Warns Beijing Has "Little Reason" To Rescue The West

Bloomberg's NYMEX one-month heating-oil/crude spread, tracked on the Terminal as the HOCL1 Index, breached $100 per barrel early Tuesday before surging to nearly $106 by late morning.

The historic blowout is a major warning that refinery outages in Russia (read Goldman's latest diesel warning), restrictions on industrial fuel exports, and continued disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are deepening a crisis concentrated in finished fuels rather than in crude availability.

Larger time frame:

We first warned:

Diesel crack spread hits record high, just shy of $100 https://t.co/pxNKK1OUeR pic.twitter.com/uAciv62yPk

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 13, 2026

The latest snapshot of the worldwide refined-products squeeze came Tuesday morning from Kelly Chen, a senior economist at DNB Carnegie specializing in China, emerging markets, and energy markets.

Chen noted that China is one of the few countries with enough spare refining capacity to provide meaningful relief to the increasingly strained global market.

However, Chen pointed out that Beijing appears to have little economic or strategic incentive to rescue Western fuel markets.

"Some clients ask us if China can be a potential source of relief for the product markets," the senior economist wrote in the note.

She continued, "As product exports through the Strait of Hormuz remain heavily disrupted and Ukrainian attacks have constrained Russian refining, China is one of the few regions with room to materially raise refinery throughput and exports quickly."

"Beijing did increase its refined product export quotas in July, but they remain well below 2025 levels. The question is whether the authorities have an incentive to raise product exports further," she said.

Chen argued that China is unlikely to rescue global diesel markets, writing, "If US pressure forces China to reduce or halt purchases of Iranian oil, China would have to either compete more aggressively for scarce crude oil barrels or draw further on its own strategic inventories. Either option would weaken China's own energy security to ease a shortage elsewhere. China has already tapped its own buffers to absorb the disruption to crude oil and may not have appetite to do much more. Furthermore, high road-fuel prices could boost global demand for Chinese electric vehicles/energy technologies. Thus, until crude oil supplies become less disrupted, we suspect Chinese authorities have little reason to significantly raise product exports."

Professional subscribers can read the full note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/01/2026 - 14:00
Tyler Durden

Republican Campaign Arms Ask Supreme Court To Restore Cheapest TV Ad Rates Ahead Of Midterms

Zero Rss
1 month 2 weeks ago
Republican Campaign Arms Ask Supreme Court To Restore Cheapest TV Ad Rates Ahead Of Midterms

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

Republican committees have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to allow them access to lowest-rate television ads before the November midterms after a federal appeals court ruled that only candidates are entitled to the special campaign rate required by law.

The Supreme Court in Washington on Aug. 31, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The emergency application by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which was docketed on Aug. 31, has been presented to Chief Justice John Roberts. Roberts may act on it by himself, or he may refer it to the full court.

Roberts has directed the respondents - former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio); Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.); former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat; and Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich.) - to file a response to the application by midday on Sept. 3. Brown, Ossoff, and Cooper are currently running for the Senate; Rivet is seeking reelection to the House.

The NRCC and NRSC view the matter as urgent because Sept. 4 is the first day of the 60-day period before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, when federal law requires broadcasters to sell candidates airtime at their cheapest rate. They are asking the Supreme Court to put the appeals court ruling on hold before that window opens. If the high court does not do so, they say they will have to pay full freight for the rest of the campaign cycle, and that stations have already begun to cancel the cheaper reservations they previously made.

The federal Communications Act provides that in the 45 days before a primary election and 60 days before a general election, broadcasters must charge legally qualified candidates no more than the lowest rate offered to their most favored customers. This is known as the Lowest Unit Rate rule. The rule does not apply to streaming and social media ads.

In March of this year, the staff of the Federal Communications Commission's (FCC's) Media Bureau issued an interpretive guidance reminding both television and radio broadcasters about the rule. The public notice reiterated that favorable rates must be provided to "authorized committees that engage in joint fundraising with legally qualified candidates" and to "advertisements that qualify as coordinated expenditures."

The respondents appealed the notice to the full FCC, and when it failed to rule, they argued that it amounted to constructive denial of the appeal and took the matter to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit.

They argued that the Communications Act requires the cheap airtime rate be given to candidates, not political parties. They also said that when a party buys an ad that a candidate approves, it is the party spending its own money - not the candidate, and if the candidate rate still applied, it would constitute an illegal gift to the candidate's campaign.

A panel of the appeals court agreed with the respondents, voting 2-1 to vacate the notice.

The panel held that the lowest unit charge applies only to a legally qualified candidate, not to party-coordinated ads and joint fundraising committee ads with non-candidate members. The panel also determined it had jurisdiction, or authority, to hear the case even though the full FCC had not yet completed reviewing the notice.

A dissenting judge said the court should not have reviewed the guidance while it was pending at the FCC and that barring parties from the discount rate restricted political speech on the eve of an election.

The NRCC and NRSC said in the application that the Fourth Circuit erred and that its decision is hurting the two committees.

"In the midst of election season, a divided Fourth Circuit panel just rewrote longstanding rules about preferential broadcast rates for political ads," at the behest of Democratic candidates "who said those rules favor their electoral opponents," the Republican committees said.

The panel's decision violates two jurisdictional principles and splits with multiple federal courts of appeals, while it "restrict[s] political speech in the sensitive period leading up to an election," they said.

The Fourth Circuit ruling also ignores the Supreme Court's recent instruction that courts should not treat incomplete agency work as final for purposes of filing an appeal, they added.

The two committees have budgeted tens of millions of dollars for ad purchases based on the rules that were in effect before the panel ruled, "but because of the Fourth Circuit's decision, broadcast stations are already rescinding those rates," they said.

The circuit court denied a request to pause its order on Aug. 27 and allowed its ruling to take effect the same day.

The NRCC and NRSC asked the Supreme Court justices to act before Sept. 4. The Trump administration weighed in to support the application.

Justice Department Solicitor General D. John Sauer is arguing that the respondents are appealing prematurely, lack standing to challenge the FCC notice, and have mischaracterized it, according to his brief.

The notice "does not grant favored treatment to one side or the other; instead, the notice's interpretation offers the same benefit to all sides, including the challengers themselves," he said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/01/2026 - 13:40
Tyler Durden

'Barbaric': Children Under Five Being Subjected To Forced Marriage In Britain

Zero Rss
1 month 2 weeks ago
'Barbaric': Children Under Five Being Subjected To Forced Marriage In Britain

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Britain now has children aged five and under on the books of the Forced Marriage Unit. Home Office figures obtained through Freedom of Information requests show at least 27 children five or younger were referred between 2021 and 2025.

They sit inside a wider total of more than 100 children aged 12 or under. A referral is not a completed marriage. It is information about an actual, potential or suspected forced marriage. Campaigners say the real number is far higher because so many cases never reach statutory services.

The legal age of marriage in England and Wales was raised to 18 in 2023. Forcing anyone to marry is already a criminal offence. The practice continues anyway. And it's quite clearly an imported problem.

'This is barbaric, medieval and, crucially, we've imported this problem.'@PatrickChristys reacts to new findings that children under the age of 5 are being forced to marry in Britain, and discusses how far the practice is driven by specific cultures. pic.twitter.com/RbZG2QhvDA

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 31, 2026

Patrick Christys was blunt. "This is barbaric, medieval and, crucially, we've imported this problem." He noted that Pakistanis account for 41 percent of Forced Marriage Unit cases, Bangladeshis 9 percent and Afghans 7 percent.

A large share of those cases involve children. The idea that people arrive, kiss British soil and instantly absorb British norms does not survive contact with the data.

Shockingly, some cases even have no overseas element at all. In 2022 there were nine referrals of children aged 12 or under where the suspected or actual forced marriage would have taken place entirely on British soil. Separate 2025 figures show cases with no overseas link rising to 58, or 14 percent of the total.

'Still today there are so many people and networks that are terrified of being called racist.'

Political commentator Chloe Dobbs condemns the silence from the mainstream media on issues such as forced child marriage and grooming gangs, and their link to foreign cultures. pic.twitter.com/niCUUCplSl

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 31, 2026

Dame Jasvinder Sanghera, who fled a forced marriage at 14 and later received a damehood for her work with victims, called the numbers "deeply disturbing."

She said some children are "promised to somebody from birth," with the ceremony years later. She warned that when schools reopen in September there will be missing children. "Is somebody going to ask where they are, or are they simply just going to go off school roll? Or children will come back engaged or even married."

Sanghera also described the tactic used to shut down scrutiny. Perpetrators "will try and put you on the back foot. 'This is our culture. This is our religion. You're being racist' or whatever, to put you on the back foot, to make you look the other way."

She added that professionals still lack confidence to report. "Cultural acceptance does not mean accepting the unacceptable."

Journalist Khadija Khan told GB News the published figures are "likely just the tip of the iceberg, because many cases remain unreported." She said the 27 children under five made the statistics "horrifying."

"One child being robbed of her childhood and forced into marriage is one too many and it is unimaginable how this has been allowed to happen," Khan said, adding Britain can "no longer pretend that we have been sleepwalking through this nightmare." The practice has been happening "under the nose of the authorities."

She named the communities where it is most common: "The Pakistani community, Bangladeshi community and Afghan community, in many cases the practice of forced marriage has been euphemistic for arranged marriage." Families do it for honour, to keep wealth inside the family, or in exchange for money. Some make promises at birth.

'We can no longer pretend that we have been sleepwalking through this nightmare.'

Journalist Khadija Khan says that the figure of 40% of forced marriage cases in the UK involving children is 'likely just the tip of the iceberg'. pic.twitter.com/t1kVDuUvhw

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 31, 2026

Dr Taj Hargey, founder of the Oxford Institute for British Islam, said forced marriage involving children should be "condemned without fear of upsetting anyone." "This should be totally condemned by the Muslim society up and down the UK."

'This should be totally condemned by the Muslim society up and down the UK.'

Founder of the Oxford Institute for British Islam, DR Taj Hargey says forced marriage involving children in the UK should be 'condemned without fear of upsetting anyone'. pic.twitter.com/h6ONbn9LaW

— GB News (@GBNEWS) August 31, 2026

Reform UK home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf tied the rise directly to scale. "This sudden rise in forced marriages tracks almost perfectly with the Boriswave, which saw the Tories import four million new people into the UK. The Conservatives will never be forgiven for this complete and utter betrayal."

The same institutional reflex that treated child sexual exploitation as a community-relations problem now treats child marriage the same way.

Mayor Sadiq Khan told the London Assembly in January 2025 there were "no reported cases and also no indication of the grooming gangs" in London. The Metropolitan Police later identified more than 4,000 potential child sexual exploitation cases that may need reopening, drawn from around 12,000 reports dating back to 2010.

Many had been closed with no further action. Conservative assembly member Susan Hall called the scale "utterly disgraceful."

The pattern is familiar. Ethnicity and culture were treated as too sensitive to record properly. Victims were told the men who abused them were "probably not going to catch them." A 2020 Home Office report that claimed most perpetrators were white was built on incomplete data and used to shut down discussion.

Working-class girls paid the price. The same fear of being called racist now sits over teachers, social workers and neighbours who might otherwise report a five-year-old being prepared for marriage.

This is not happening in a vacuum. In the three months to June 2026, 140,122 foreign nationals were granted indefinite leave to remain or citizenship - more than one every minute. Nearly 200,000 received ILR across the full year, a 16-year high.

Citizenship grants hit 245,520. Home Office forecasts suggest 1.3 to 2.2 million more settlements between 2026 and 2030. The asylum system alone cost £4.3 billion in 2025/26 and £25 billion over the last decade.

You cannot import large numbers of people from societies where cousin marriage, honour codes and child betrothal are normal and then act shocked when those practices travel with them.

The Home Office still recites that forced marriage is "not a problem specific to one country, religion or culture." The 2025 country breakdown tells a different story. Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan dominate the caseload.

Britain raised the marriage age and made forced marriage a crime. It then spent years importing the very cultures that treat those laws as optional.

Professionals who notice a child missing after the summer holidays or returning "engaged" are still expected to worry first about whether the report will be labelled racist. That is not multiculturalism. It is the abandonment of the most basic duty a country has to its children.

The numbers are public. The quotes are on the record. The schools open again this week. The question is whether anyone in authority is still allowed to say what is happening.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/01/2026 - 13:00
Tyler Durden

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