Aggregator
Sicko school worker arrested in massacre of over 50 hamsters by stomping on them in ‘love hotels’
Rauw Alejandro is headlining two shows at Forest Hills. Get last-minute tickets
Tropical Storm Edouard Takes Aim At America's Largest Refinery Hub
The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch for parts of the Texas and Louisiana coasts as Tropical Storm Edouard strengthens in the Gulf of America and tracks directly toward one of America's most critical refining and LNG corridors.
Edouard was approximately 90 miles southeast of Port Arthur, Texas, early Tuesday, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, according to the latest NHC update. The storm is expected to make landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border later Tuesday and could approach hurricane strength before reaching the coast.
"Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory 4A (7 AM CDT, Tue Sep 1): Air Force Hurricane Hunters Investigating Edouard. Significant Strengthening is Forecast Before Edouard Reaches the Northwestern Gulf Coast Later Today," the NHC wrote on X.
Tropical Storm #Edouard Advisory 4A (7 AM CDT, Tue Sep 1): Air Force Hurricane Hunters Investigating Edouard. Significant Strengthening is Forecast Before Edouard Reaches the Northwestern Gulf Coast Later Today. https://t.co/GrztW6mQJV
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 1, 2026Edouard's cone of uncertainty extends over Port Arthur, a major center for US oil refining, natural gas processing and energy exports. The region is home to Motiva Enterprises' Port Arthur complex, the largest refinery in the US, as well as facilities operated by Valero Energy, TotalEnergies and BASF.
Edouard is the fifth named storm of the Atlantic season following an unusually quiet opening linked to El Niño conditions in the Pacific, which have increased wind shear across the Atlantic Basin and disrupted tropical development.
The threat Edouard poses to the heart of the US Gulf Coast refining and LNG complex is particularly troubling given the worldwide refining crisis, with US diesel crack spreads topping $103 per barrel.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/01/2026 - 11:15Travis Kelce gushes over wife Taylor Swift’s style: ‘Effortless, elegant and beautiful’
Travis Kelce gushes over wife Taylor Swift’s style: ‘Effortless, elegant and beautiful’
It’s officially September — Do you have a cute transitional jacket? This trench is over 25% off
Blake Lively leans on Ryan Reynolds, family in first photos since disappointing legal blow
Blake Lively leans on Ryan Reynolds, family in first photos since disappointing legal blow
‘Furious’ Season 2: What Creator Liz Meriwether and Emmy Rossum Can Share About The Next Season of Hulu’s Hit
Plaskett Fire explodes to nearly 27,000 acres as fire officials issue alarming warning
Ugly JOLTs Report Hints At Another Negative Payrolls Print On Friday
After five straight months of JOLTS beats, including two blowout prints for April and May and zero misses since 2025, last month's JOLTS report was a surprising miss (despite the previously discussed surge in government job openings). Fast forward to today when the latest JOLTS report made it two misses for two, with the BLS announcing moments ago that in July, the US had 7.271 million job openings, up from a downward revised 7.182 million...
... and missing the consensus estimate of 7.313 for the second month in a row.
What is more notable, however, is the revision: the June number was smashed, and revised lower by almost 200K, from 7.359MM, to 7.182MM, the biggest negative revision since 2025.
This is what the BLS said about the massive negative revisions: "The number of job openings for June was revised down by 177,000 to 7.2 million, the number of hires was revised down by 16,000 to 5.3 million, and the number of total separations was revised down by 14,000 to 5.3 million. Within separations, the number of quits was revised down by 19,000 to 3.2 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 19,000 to 1.8 million."
Going back to this month's report (which will surely be revised lower too in the coming months), where did the openings come from? According to the BLS the number and rate of job openings were little changed at 7.3 million and 4.4 percent, respectively, in July. The jump in job openings was most pronounced in durable goods manufacturing (+76,000). Taking a closer look shows declines in job openings in Trade and Transportation, Professional Services, Leisure and Hospitality, offset by an increase in job openings in Information, Private Education...
... but just like a month ago, the biggest increase continues to be in government, where the number of job openings surged again, from 762K to 810K and back to the highest level in the past year.
The July rise in job openings was juxtaposed with an overall drop in July employment, which meant that after 9 months of labor surplus which ended in March, we now have a fourth consecutive month of more job openings than unemployed workers, and in June the surplus was 355K, the biggest surplus since the 566K in Jan 2025, and a concerning development for the broader labor market which according to most other measures continues to fire on all cylinders.
The latest JOLTS data also means that after falling back to 0.9x in March, in April the ratio of job openings rose over 1.1x for the first time since January 2025.
While the job openings number was weaker than expected for the second time this year, in July we also saw continued weakness in both hires and quits, In July the number of Quits - or the "take his job and shove it" indicator - dropped by 157K to 3.056MM from 3.213MM indicating a drop in confidence that better jobs await elsewhere; at the same time hires also dropped by 278K, from 5.332MM to 5.054MM, the lowest since February.
It goes without saying that disappointing job openings (which only rose due to a massive downward revision to historical data) while hires and quits slump at a time when payrolls may have posted their second negative print in a row (as we will find out on Friday), leads one to scratch their head how weak the labor market truly is.
In any case, since this hires number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the July payrolls report dropped by 23K. And since the JOLTS implied number is far weaker than that, having printed negative for a third month in a row, we fully expect the August payrolls report this Friday to be a catch up, and may very well print negative once again.
Overall, this was a weak JOLTS report, with weakness in openings offset by revisions (and a continued growth in job openings), yet both hires and quits tumbled, and shows that after some significant strength in the early part of of 2026, US labor market is now hitting an air pocket and this could translate into another notable miss in this Friday jobs report.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/01/2026 - 10:58Germany to blame Russia for attempted drone attack on Ukrainian cargo plane at airport
Norway’s King Haakon pledges oath of allegiance following father’s death
Watch live: Oral arguments on whether alleged Charlie Kirk killer Tyler Robinson will stand trial
The best oily skincare products I swear by to control shine and breakouts
Pan-tastic Labor Day deals: The viral Our Place Always Pan is 34% off
The 59 best gifts for your wife she’ll *actually* love, curated and reviewed
Girl, 17, charged with murder over California mosque massacre is unmasked — as her ties to shooters revealed
G20 Plans "Death By A Thousand Cuts" For China's Economy
By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank
The Natural EquilibriumG20 finance ministers, central bank governors and a handful of high-profile CEOs gathered in Asheville, North Carolina, yesterday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held court, telling allies that the only way out of heavy debt loads is growth, and that they needed to do more to confront China on its structural trade imbalances.
The latter point is particularly salient as Bessent prosecutes new restrictions against trade with Iran under Operation Economic Outcast. China has been Iran’s most important trading partner and the major market for cut-price Iranian oil that had given Chinese industry a cost advantage over buyers observing existing sanctions. Bessent is now telling allies that they will need to examine their terms of trade with China. The “or else” post-script to that message is left unsaid for now, but just ask a Canadian trade negotiator whether the US is developing sharper elbows on this point in recent times.
Even without US pressure, the realization seems to be dawning that Ricardian comparative advantage isn’t actually a utility-maximising strategy when not everyone plays by the rules. Ursula von der Leyen recently said that if trade negotiations do not materially reduce the EU’s record trade deficit with China, the former will need to solve the problem via regulatory tools, including its famed ‘trade bazooka’ anti-coercion instrument. There are no free traders in a foxhole.
There are other signs of deathbed conversions among hitherto free trade evangelists. Australia just imposed new tariffs on Chinese-manufactured train wheels to protect local industry, while an alliance of aluminum extruders in New Zealand are furiously lobbying the government to restrict imports of Chinese aluminum products that they say are being dumped into the local market at prices well below cost of production ever since other markets (the USA, EU and Australia) placed tariffs on those goods to protect their own industry.
Combined with the US’s systematic shutting down of China’s low-cost energy flows from Iran and Venezuela, the promulgation of barriers to entry for Chinese goods is starting to look like death by a thousand cuts for China’s economy. Bessent yesterday pointed to China’s trade surplus equivalent to 1% of global GDP, saying that China is trying to export its way out of a problem of weak domestic demand. Official PMI figures released yesterday showed a slight improvement in China’s manufacturing sector but further deterioration in non-manufacturing, and both sectors remained below the threshold between contraction and expansion.
Unofficial figures released today showed manufacturing expanding and at a faster rate than anticipated by surveyed economists. If that is a true reflection of what is going on, China’s problem with weak domestic demand and a large exportable surplus that needs to be soaked up by demand elsewhere is only exacerbated. If it is not a true reflection, even the export engine is seeing the walls closing in and the official growth target is in serious question.
While recent trade restrictions imposed by other developed nations looks like a meeting of minds, it would be a mistake to interpret this as G20 countries all being on the same page. As much was clear when a number of European finance ministers claimed that they were blindsided by the attendance of Russian finance minister Siluanov and threatened to boycott the ‘family photo’ unless the Russian was excluded. Very clearly, points of divergence remain in the perceived interests of Western nations, which was perhaps highlighted further by a vote in Iceland rejecting a proposal to restart talks on joining the EU even as Canada attempts to deepen EU ties and rebuffed a recent US trade deal to leave itself the option of preferential trade with China.
Another possible point of friction emerged when Bessent seemingly urged the Bank of Japan to get busy raising interest rates even as the Japanese government has been keen to discourage haste. The Treasury Secretary said that he wasn’t going to tell the BOJ what to do, but then indicated that he thought the reflationary policies of Abenomics have run their course and that coordinated intervention in FX markets could only go so far. “I can’t affect the natural equilibrium. What I can do is send a signal and, as I’ve said, I have information that the market doesn’t have.”
Meanwhile, 10-year borrowing costs in Australia just hit their highest levels since 2011 only a day after 10-year yields in France hit their highest level since 2008. 10-year Treasury yields are making new multi-decade highs and the yield on the 30-year is once again threatening the level that it reached before Bessent jawboned it lower by indicating that the Treasury would at least double the size of long end purchases, presumably funded by higher short-end issuance that will require Kevin Warsh and the Fed to provide an assist to keep US borrowing costs relatively low.
In a de-globalising world the West is facing a security-driven imperative to re-industrialize with national debts already at wartime levels and commodity supply chains are increasingly subject to statecraft power plays. These interventions mean that commodity supplies can either be very constrained (as is currently the case for oil and refined fuels) or in a glut, or sometimes both simultaneously in difference parts of the world with new trade barriers preventing goods from flowing and markets from clearing. Glut conditions are currently the case for China-backed nickel processing in Indonesia, and may be the case for US energy in the future if the recent deal to secure control over Venezuelan oil supplies delivers on its promise.
In this environment of market dislocation finding a “natural equilibrium” is going to be harder to do, and it will be impossible for anyone who leans exclusively on models assuming free trade while forgetting to factor in power politics.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/01/2026 - 10:40