Novo Nordisk shares jumped as much as 9% in Copenhagen, suggesting the stock may finally be bottoming out after a vicious multi-year bear market. The move followed the Danish drugmaker's decision to raise its 2026 guidance ranges for adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit, citing solid momentum in Wegovy sales.
Novo now expects full-year sales and profit declines of around 12%, down from a previous forecast of around 13%. The upgraded outlook was "driven by increased expectations for GLP-1 product sales," according to the company.
Here's a snapshot of the new full-year forecast, courtesy of Bloomberg:
Sees adjusted change in sales at constant exchange rates -4% to -12%, saw -5% to -13%, estimate -7.63% (Bloomberg Consensus)
Sees adjusted change in operating profit at constant FX -4% to -12%, saw -5% to -13%, estimate -8.26%
The key bright spot was momentum in the Wegovy pill:
Wegovy pill was launched in the US on 5 January 2026, and for the week ending 17 April, total weekly prescriptions exceeded 200,000. Coupled with total prescriptions for Q1 2026 of around 1.3 million and now more than 2 million since launch, it marks the strongest-ever GLP-1 volume launch in the US. Q1 2026 sales for the Wegovy pill reached DKK 2,256 million, impacted by pre-launch pipeline fill with wholesalers and telehealth partners.
Pending regulatory decisions, the first Wegovy pill launches outside the US are expected during the second half of 2026.
"We have seen more than 1 million people using the Wegovy pill," CEO Mike Doustdar told analysts on an earnings call earlier. He noted that patients are switching from competing products, with "limited cannibalization" of Novo's other drugs.
Still, Novo's overall business remains under pressure. First-quarter sales fell 10% to 70.1 billion Danish kroner, while adjusted operating profit dropped 15%. Diabetes drug sales fell 18%, with Ozempic hitting its lowest level in two years.
Novo is trying to regain momentum after losing market share to Eli Lilly's Zepbound injection.
Novo shares in Copenhagen jumped as much as 9%. Shares have been locked in a vicious, nearly two-year bear market, down 70% from their peak.
Analyst commentary, courtesy of Bloomberg:
Barclays (equal weight)
Oral Wegovy was "off to a strong start," analyst James Gordon writes in a note.
Sees questions on supply capacity when the pill launches in other countries, expected in 2H
Sees FY consensus expectations being increased by low single- digits
BMO Capital Markets (market perform)
The Wegovy pill "makes a splash" in its debut, analyst Evan Seigerman writes in a note.
It's encouraging that roughly 15%-16% of pill patients are filling scripts for the highest dosages.
This "could be a leading indicator for improved revenue going forward, given their higher price."
Wegovy and Ozempic injectables also beat expectations, "showing more resilience in the face of competition within class"
Jefferies (hold)
Although the 2026 guidance was nudged higher, it still leaves consensus expectations at the upper end of the range, analyst Michael Leuchten writes in a note.
The change in guidance probably won't have a positive impact on consensus estimates.
It could actually drag pretax profit and EPS expectations down a couple of percent.
Intron Health (sell)
Sales beat expectations by 1%, driven by Wegovy pill stocking of ~$125m, analyst Naresh Chouhan writes in a note
Meanwhile, gross margin was 30 bps worse than expected
Morgan Stanley (equal weight)
1Q sales were a "small" beat, driven by the Wegovy pill — helped by stocking — and international operations, analyst Thibault Boutherin writes in a note
Lower operating costs helped the adjusted EBIT beat
Still sees the bottom end of the guidance as "conservative" and expects the company to finish the year "in the upper half of the guidance."
Did Novo finally bottom?
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 06:55Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on May 4 that there needs to be a stronger European element in NATO, as the United States reconsiders its relationship with the defense alliance and pivots toward other security priorities domestically and globally.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Jan 6, 2026. Ludovic Marin/APStarmer acknowledged during a panel discussion at the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, Armenia, that, in terms of defense and security, Europe has “got behind over many years, now.”
“We’re not where we need to be,” he said.
The British prime minister alluded to the impact of the Ukraine–Russia war and, more recently, the Iran conflict on global security and economic stability, saying that Europe, especially, had to come together around these issues.
“There needs to be a stronger European element in NATO. I have no doubt about that,” he said.
Starmer said that while there needed to be a stronger European element in defense and security, “we’ve been behind the curve for too long: over dependencies, over reliance, and assumptions about the world that we live in—they’ve gone.”
“We now need to lead out of this, and we need to do it at pace because these impacts are real,” Starmer said.
“The alliances that are under tension are real, and how we, as a group of leaders, respond now will likely define what goes on for many years—arguably for a generation.”
US Reorients Defense PrioritiesU.S. President Donald Trump has long maintained that Europe should rely less on the United States for its security and that European NATO allies should increase their defense spending. This approach was formally accepted by NATO when, in June 2025, allies agreed to raise defense spending targets from 2 percent of gross domestic product to 5 percent by 2035.
The United States has also reoriented its defense and security priorities.
The Pentagon on Jan. 23 released its National Defense Strategy, which outlines the U.S. plan to prioritize homeland defense, including by “defending America’s interests throughout the Western Hemisphere,” according to the document.
It also said the United States would encourage partners in other parts of the world, including Europe, to take primary responsibility for their own defense “with critical but limited support from U.S. forces.”
Tension Over Support in Iran ConflictIn recent weeks, Trump has expressed frustration with the lack of support from NATO allies during the Iran war, prompting him to consider pulling out of the alliance.
Trump told British newspaper The Telegraph in an interview published on April 1 that his request for assistance in the Strait of Hormuz was a test that allies did not pass.
The president’s remarks followed similar comments from Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Rubio said on March 30 that one of the benefits of U.S. membership in the alliance is that it gives Washington access to station troops, aircraft, and arms in other parts of the world—including much of Europe.
However, during Operation Epic Fury, “we have countries like Spain, a NATO member that we are pledged to defend, denying us the use of their airspace and bragging about it, denying us the use of our—of their bases,” Rubio said, adding that “there are other countries that have done that as well.”
Rubio said that while he supported NATO, his backing of the alliance was based on the assumption that there are reciprocal arrangements.
“But if NATO is just about us defending Europe if they’re attacked, but then denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement,” he said.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte delivers a speech at Aselsan Defence company as part of his official visit to Turkey, in Ankara on April 22, 2026. Adem Altan/AFP via Getty ImagesThis week, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that NATO members had received Trump’s message about agreements allowing the United States to access European bases.
“Yes, there has been some disappointment from the U.S. side, but Europeans have listened,” Rutte told reporters at the same European Political Community summit in Armenia on May 4.
“They are now making sure that all the bilateral basing agreements are being implemented.”
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 06:30Trump announce 'pause' to Project Freedom amid optimism of a "complete and final" deal with Iran; French ship confirmed hit in cruise missile attack, crew members injured
Rubio declares 'offensive' actions of Operation Epic Fury are over, and now Project Freedom is in swing. Another vessel comes under attack in Hormuz.
UAE under attack again, confirmed in state sources - however which Iran denies doing - instead saying its actions were directed at the United States. White House still hasn't declared end of ceasefire.
Pentagon addresses whether ceasefire over or violated: Caine says Iran's Monday operations were "all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point."
Contradictory statements out of Tehran on UAE attack, amid reports of division between IRGC & civilian leaders.
Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to Beijing to discuss crisis with Chinese counterpart.
The odds of a peace deal being completed just jumped...
* * *
Trump Pauses Project FreedomThere is a knee-jerk wave of optimism across assets with WTI crude futures lower, US equity contracts and Treasury futures higher after President Trump said Project Freedom will be paused.
Trump also said there is progress toward a final agreement with Iran which is what investors really want to see as it could potentially mean a reopening of Hormuz.
Trump statement on his TruthSocial feed (emphasis and spacing ours):
Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally...
...the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran...
...we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.
WTI crude futures are testing back below $100...
Polymarket odds of Hormuz traffic returning to normal has jumped to better than a coin-flip...
Don't hold your breath though as there have been several false starts of this kind before, and traders will soon lose faith unless there are more details from the Iranian side.
Additionally late Tuesday, a French cargo ship was confirmed hit in a missile attack, injuring crew members:
A cargo ship in the Gulf region was hit by a possible land-attack cruise missile, causing several injuries among the ship's Filipino crew, two U.S. officials told CBS News.
The hit on the CGM San Antonio — which is owned by a French firm — took place late Tuesday evening local time, the officials said. The ship was near Dubai as of midday on Tuesday, but it is not clear whether the vessel has moved since then, according to public ship tracking data.
Rubio Declares Conflict in New StageSecretary of State Marco Rubio has announced Tuesday afternoon that offensive stage of Iran war is 'over'. He further said that ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz are facing a humanitarian crisis and accused Iran of holding the world hostage by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is denying that it attacked the United Arab Emirates, with the foreign ministry saying its 'defensive actions' were 'exclusively directed at the U.S.'
Operation Epic Fury is over, now Project Freedom.
The remarks were issued just as a new attack is unfolding on a foreign cargo ship in the strategic waterway:
UKMTO WARNING 055-26
Click here to read the full warning⤵️https://t.co/J5B2EilFQE#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/EGcKTpsHtN
Reaction in oil...
...as the goalposts keep shifting:
BREAKING: REPORTER: But 10 weeks in, are we any closer to get rid of Iran's nuclear materials?
RUBIO: They no longer have a conventional shield. They have no Navy left. They don't have an Air Force. That's a very substantial achievement. That was the purpose of this. pic.twitter.com/bD33XPARVH
A revealing exchange in the Oval Office strongly suggests that even amid a second Iranian attack wave on the UAE Tuesday, the White House is unwilling to say that the ceasefire has collapsed - also given there's yet been no direct exchange of fire between US and Iranian forces:
President Trump, taking questions from reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday, would not specify what Iran would need to do to violate the cease-fire. Asked by a reporter what would constitute a violation, considering that the country has fired on U.S. ships several times, Trump said: “Well, you’ll find out, because I’ll let you know.”
He added that “they know what to do,” and “they know what not to do, more importantly.”
Earlier the Pentagon clearly indicated that the ceasefire is still active, from Washington's point of view.
The Iranian government is meanwhile trying to bat down rumors of a division between the presidency and the IRGC/military apparatus.
Second UAE Attack Wave ActiveThe country's Ministry of Defense has just released official statement of inbound projectiles out of Iran:
Air defense systems are currently responding to a missile threat. Please remain in a safe location and follow official channels for warnings and updates. pic.twitter.com/1srVYlQgI0
— NCEMA UAE (@NCEMAUAE) May 5, 2026There are meanwhile reports of explosions being heard on Iran's Qeshm Island, and questions raised about scenes like the following:
Fire at a commercial complex in Andisheh, #Iran, which is in Tehran Province. pic.twitter.com/JxSwgSoRng
— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) May 5, 2026 Is Ceasefire Over? Pentagon Answers DefinitivelyIn the Tuesday morning Pentagon presser led by War Secretary Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Dan Caine stated very clearly that the US views Monday's escalation (the attack on UAE and some vessels in the Strait of Hormuz) as actions which are "all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point."
The Trump administration has argued that it doesn't have to seek congressional approval to continue military operations beyond a 60-day limit because there is a ceasefire in effect. But the question raised Monday is: does the fresh Iranian cross-Gulf mark the end of ceasefire? Clearly the Pentagon and Trump administration are saying no. "No adversary should mistake our current restraint for a lack of resolve," Caine then emphasized.
The ceasefire with Iran is not over, according to U.S. Secretary of War Hegseth.
Project Freedom is "separate and distinct” from Operation Epic Fury, Hegseth added.
The Iranian fire is recent days was described as "harassing" and "below the threshold of restarting major combat…
Below are some of the latest top developments from various MSM sources:
—Trump’s desire to end the Iran war is being put to the test after Tehran fired at American warships on Monday and violently disrupted a U.S. effort to revive shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, Trump wants to avoid a fresh bombing campaign, officials say, preferring a negotiated end to Tehran’s nuclear advancements and the weekslong war that has raised gas prices and hurt the global economy. (WSJ)
—U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a U.S.-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year. The unchanged timeline suggests that significantly impeding Tehran's nuclear program may require destroying or removing Iran's remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium. (RTRS)
—Trump says war could stretch 3 more weeks, claims US 'already won.’ (ABC)
Below: Pentagon slide in Tuesday's briefing showing Iranian attacks on Hormuz shipping: "Iran has fired at commercial vessels nine times and seized two container ships since the ceasefire was announced" (Gen. Caine).
And this puts things in perspective...
In a Pentagon briefing, top U.S. General
Dan Caine says Iranian attacks on shipping and U.S. vessels is currently below the threshold of restarting major combat operations. (This included 9 attacks on commercial vessels and 10 against U.S. forces) pic.twitter.com/CU0gQVSvzJ
There's a lot of chatter that Iran's civilian government and the IRGC are at direct odds over Monday's attack on UAE, which resulted in a large blaze at the Fujairah oil facility and the three injured Indian nationals. Al Jazeera for example observes:
By targeting the facility, Iran is sending a direct message to UAE saying: “We can target your most important economic points even if you think you can get around the Strait of Hormuz,” said Turak.
Iran’s government has not confirmed or denied responsibility for the attack. Turak noted there are "quite contradictory" statements coming out of Iran, however.
And Saudi-funded Iran International claims the following dramatic schism and internal rupture over the risky cross-Gulf operation, which could signal the end of the ceasefire (though curiously President Trump himself has not said it is broken):
Exclusive information obtained by Iran International points to a growing clash between Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and its military leadership over Monday’s escalation in the Persian Gulf and attacks on the United Arab Emirates.
According to sources familiar with Tehran’s deliberations, Pezeshkian has expressed strong anger at actions by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, led by Ahmad Vahidi, describing missile and drone strikes on the UAE as “completely irresponsible” and carried out without the government’s knowledge or coordination.
Pezeshkian is said to have described the IRGC’s approach to escalating tensions with regional countries as “madness,” warning of potentially irreversible consequences.
This certainly isn't the first time that Iran International, a London-based publication seen as also 'close' to Israeli intelligence, has alleged severe internal division in Iran's wartime decision-making, but the viewpoint is beginning to be echoed and reported on more broadly.
Two US Navy Destroyers Successfully Transit StraitTo review of Monday's major escalation, US Central Command said its forces had intercepted missiles targeting US Navy and commercial vessels, and also said American helicopters sank six small Iranian boats that officials said were targeting civilian vessels under American protection.
And also came a big milestone in terms of Washington aims to enforce Trump's newly announced Project Freedom plan to provide military escort for ships through Hormuz. Two US Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz and entered the Persian Gulf on Monday and overnight after navigating an Iranian barrage, according to defense officials.
CBS reports, "The USS Truxtun and USS Mason, supported by Apache helicopters and other aircraft, faced a series of coordinated threats during the passage, the defense officials said. Iran launched small boats, missiles and drones against them in what officials described as a sustained barrage." The report underscores further that "Despite the intensity of the attacks, neither U.S. vessel was struck."
Apaches, Centcom handout 'No Military Solution'Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has issued an interesting statement decrying Trump's attempt at escalation in Hormuz, warning that there's no “military solution” to the crisis, while warning the US, UAE, and other regional countries against being drawn into a “quagmire” in the region.
"Events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis," Araghchi wrote on X. "As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE. Project Freedom is Project Deadlock," to top Iranian diplomat asserted.
Also of note is that Araghchi will travel to Beijing on Tuesday for discussions with his Chinese counterpart. "During the visit he will meet his Chinese counterpart [Wang Yi] to discuss bilateral ties and regional and international developments," Iran’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Below: Graham says you either pay now or you pay later. “They tried to get a nuclear weapon. If you don’t believe that, you shouldn’t be allowed to drive.”
Lindsey Graham says Americans deserve higher gas prices because many doubted Iran was going to get a nuclear weapon.
Graham says you either pay now or you pay later.
“They tried to get a nuclear weapon. If you don’t believe that, you shouldn’t be allowed to drive.” https://t.co/1dDx1PVACv pic.twitter.com/Uma2pETYt7
Officially at least, Beijing has a policy of "noninterference" in other countries’ internal affairs, and has claimed to not be involved in the Iran conflict - while Washington has consistently accused China of providing intelligence to Tehran, and even possibly military hardware or weapons.
Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s presidential secretary Choi Soung-ah says "the safety of international maritime routes and freedom of navigation should be protected under international law" and that Seoul is "watching President Trump’s remark related to this," according Reuters. This after ann explosion and fire on a South Korean-operated ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, which Trump blamed on an Iranian attack.
More Geopolitical Developmentsvia Newsquawk...