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Another JOLT: Jobs Opening Smash Expectations, Despite Another Drop In Number Of Hires

Another month, another whopping beat by the BLS JOLTS job openings report.

One month after the April JOLTS report came out with a whopping 9-sigma beat to estimates, when it showed that in April the US added a whopping 731K job openings to 7.618 million (and up 520K from a year ago), smashing estimates of 6.9 million, moments ago the BLS reported that in May, the number of total job openings printed at 7.594 million, almost as if it was designed to post another improvement from last month's downward revised 7.585MM (from 7.618MM), and once again smashed estimates of 7.296MM.

While not as historic as last month's record 9-sigma beat, today's print was still a solid 2-sigma beat to the median estimate.

It was also the 5th consecutive beat of estimates and 8th in the past 10!

Where did the openings come from? According to the BLS,the notable increase came from an increase in wholesale trade (+71,000), but as can be seen from the table below, there were also increases in manufacturing and leisure and hospitality; on the other side, openings dropped in financial services, and private education.

Notably, unlike last month's record increase in Professional and Business service job openings in April, May's increase for the category was a tame 12K to 1.485 million. Also of note, Federal government dropped by 14K to 83K, the second lowest print of 2026 and not much above the record low hit last August, even as the total number of government job openings rose driven by an increase in state and local.

The continued strength in job openings prints, coupled with the modest increase in unemployed workers means that after 9 months of labor surplus, we now have a second consecutive month of more job openings than unemployed workes, and in May the surplus was 287K, the biggest surplus since Jan 2025, and a reversal to the "deficit" regime observed since last July.

The latest JOLTS report also means that after falling back to 0.9x in March, in April the ratio of job openings rose over 1.0x and was the highest since January 2025.

But while the job openings number was very strong for another month, this month we saw continued weakness in hires and barely any improvement in quits, In May, the number of Quits dropped to 5.170MM from 5.215MM, again approaching the post covid lows; quits - or the "take his job and shove it" indicator - rose modestly to 3.065MM from 3.043MM, and followed the 183K plunge in March. 

It goes without saying that a surge in job openings while hires are dropping, and few people are voluntarily leaving their jobs, while payrolls are growing (as we will find out on Thursday), leads one to scratch their head just what is going on here, besides data massaging of course.

In any case, since this hires number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the May payrolls report surged by 172K, even if the JOLTS implied number is barely a third as strong.

Overall, this was a very strong JOLTS report, and shows that after some significant weakness in late 2025, US labor market has continued to stabilize throughout 2026. Of course, the report also lags the payrolls report by a month, which is why it gives us little insight into what Thurday's jobs report will be, although if the hires less separations dataset is any indication, it suggests that the June print will come well below expectations. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 10:35

Berkshire Hathaway chairman, 95, is delaying his customary summer gift of Berkshire shares until later this year, Wall Street Journal reported.

The actress, who was previously married to director Jim Manera — who directed and co-wrote the 2014 political drama Atlas Shrugged Part III: Who Is John Galt? — faces up to five years in federal prison.

It's time for the first knockout match of the day.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) had argued the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 violated the First Amendment

You Can't See My Hair.

You don't have to be rich to own part of a top-tier race horse.

Supreme Court: States Can Ban Trans Athletes From Girls' Sports

The Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that states can block biological transgender males from competing in girls' sports. In a 6-3 ruling, the court gave an iron-clad answer to the question. 

Writing for the majority in West Virginia v. B.P.J. (consolidated with Little v. Hecox), Justice Brett Kavanaugh held that neither Title IX nor the Equal Protection Clause requires schools to carve out an exception for transgender athletes who've undergone hormone therapy or never experienced male puberty. States can draw the line at biological sex, full stop - no judge-administered athlete-by-athlete fairness hearings required. The ruling reverses both the Fourth Circuit (which sided with West Virginia's B.P.J.) and the Ninth Circuit (which sided with Idaho's Lindsay Hecox), and lands squarely in the wake of last year's Skrmetti decision, extending its "this is a sex classification, not a transgender classification" framework from medical care straight into the locker room.

Background

Roughly half the states - approximately 27 - have enacted laws in recent years restricting participation in girls' and women's school sports to those whose biological sex, as determined at birth, matches the team category. These measures, often titled "Fairness in Women's Sports" acts or similar, reflect concerns over competitive fairness, safety, and the preservation of opportunities for biological females amid rising participation by transgender athletes.

The two cases before the Court arise from Idaho and West Virginia.

Idaho's law (enacted 2020) categorically bars transgender girls and women from girls' and women's teams in public elementary, secondary, and postsecondary schools. It defines eligibility based on biological sex and requires sex verification (often involving invasive procedures) for athletes on girls' teams but not boys' teams.

West Virginia's law (enacted 2021) similarly requires that participation on teams designated for girls or women be based on biological sex.

Lindsay Hecox, a biological male, challenged Idaho's law after seeking to compete on Boise State University's women's track and cross-country teams - and later participated in club sports. Hecox's lawsuit alleged violations of the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment, claiming the law discriminates on the basis of sex and transgender status and imposes unequal verification burdens.

B.P.J., another biological male who has identified as a girl since third grade and has taken puberty blockers and estrogen, challenged West Virginia's ban after competing on their high school's girls' track and cross-country teams. The suit claims violations of both the Equal Protection Clause and Title IX (the federal law prohibiting sex discrimination in federally funded education programs).

Lower federal courts blocked enforcement of both laws. The 9th Circuit found Idaho's measure likely violated equal protection by intending to exclude transgender girls/women and by imposing sex-based verification only on girls' teams. The 4th Circuit held West Virginia's law likely violated Title IX by discriminating against B.P.J. on the basis of sex.

At oral arguments on January 13 of this year, the states and supporting parties (including the Trump administration) argued that the laws classify on the basis of biological sex - a classification long accepted in sports to ensure fairness and safety given average physiological differences in strength, speed, muscle mass, bone density, and cardiovascular capacity that emerge after male puberty. They contended that sex-separated teams are permissible and even required under Title IX regulations, that states need not create perfect individual accommodations, and that allowing transgender girls/women (even those on hormone therapy) into female categories undermines the very purpose of sex-segregated sports. They emphasized that transgender boys can generally compete on boys' teams, so the laws do not single out transgender status per se.

Challengers countered that the bans discriminate on the basis of transgender status and sex, that many transgender girls/women (especially those who never experienced full male puberty or who have undergone hormone suppression) lack meaningful competitive advantages, and that categorical exclusion stigmatizes transgender students, deprives them of athletic opportunities, and violates both constitutional equal protection and Title IX's promise of equal access. They urged individualized assessments rather than blanket rules.

Justices' questioning suggested a likely majority inclined to uphold the state laws, with conservative members emphasizing biological differences, state authority over education and athletics, and deference to longstanding sex-based categories in sports. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 10:20

Conference Board Consumer Survey Signals Ugly Job Market, Weakest 'Present Situation' In Over 5 Years

Amid a plethora of revisions (lower), The Conference Board's measure of Americans' Consumer Confidence rose very modestly in June (from 90.6 to 91.2 - a big miss on the headline print's expectation of 94.4).

However, while Expectations rose to their highest level of the year, the Present Situation tumbled to its lowest since March 2021...

“Consumer confidence inched up in June as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

“Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly more positive compared to last month.

However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were ‘hard to get’ rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021 (22.8%).

Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now.

This was offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes.”

Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations were less elevated...

Among age groups, confidence for consumers under age 35 remained the highest, but confidence for all age groups trended downward on a six-month moving average basis.

By income, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence was mixed or little changed across all categories.

By generation, confidence fell the most for the Silent Generation but was stable or lower for others on a six-month moving average basis.

By political affiliation, confidence among Independents and Democrats rose while Republicans were somewhat less positive on a month-over-month basis.

Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism in June.

References to prices and oil and gas eased in frequency but remain elevated. Mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict eased, reflecting some easing of consumer concerns about the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 10:16

Today Will Or Won't See A US-Iran Meeting In Doha Which Will Be "Perhaps Important, Perhaps Not"

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Build 'em up or Burnham down?

In typical form, today will or won’t see a US-Iran meeting in Doha; which will be ‘perhaps important, perhaps not’; and either discussing the MoU or unfreezing $6bn of Iranian assets. So, the ‘peacefire’ continues, as expected, but with little chance this holds permanently. Likewise in Lebanon, where the US is pushing to disarm Hezbollah --which refuses-- and Israel won’t leave until that happens. And Gaza, where the Board of Peace is finalising its plans as the IDF warns Hamas is readying for war. And Iraq, which just set a September 30 deadline for pro-Iran militias to disarm. And Libya, where Marco Rubio is fighting another crisis. To give an early Christmas present to Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene, Israel also says it’s developing space lasers.

That’s as South Korea announced a $1.3 trillion AI and IT investment plan to maintain an edge vs. China over the next decade – which is showing footage of a 6G fighter jet and conducting tests of a hypersonic ramjet that can change shape in flight; China has restricted dual use exports to Mitsubishi, Hitachi, Komatsu units; Supermicro’s Taiwan offices were raided in a chip smuggling probe; and a Rakuten-led group is set for state subsidies to build Japan's answer to Starlink. In short, what we see around us is as about massive, urgent investment in defence and AI as much it is about related energy (i.e., Hormuz), broader commodities, and supply chains.

That’s unbelievably expensive to address. For example, the US is pushing for a $1.5 trillion defence budget, while keeping up with South Korea alone would require Europe to invest $14 trillion to match it equivalently. Tellingly, the UK will today unveil its new defence strategy, which shifts to cheap drones from larger platforms --guided missile destroyers and frigates are cut-- as outgoing PM Starmer presides over a plan that will only reach 2.7% of GDP by 2030, not the promised 3.0%; some say he wants to run NATO next (to tell his successor he must reach 3.5%).

So, we may soon require:

• Creative book-keeping: Hungary’s new PM claims his predecessor hid half of the budget deficit, which is actually 8% of GDP.
• Spending cuts: and good luck with that.
• New taxes: France is now looking for EU-wide taxes to fund a planned €2 trillion commission budget, with the idea that foreign firms, like US tech and polluters, could pay more.
• Tariffs: last week, US Treasury Secretary Bessent cited Hamiltonian economic statecraft; yesterday, White House macro-maven Miran penned a WSJ op-ed arguing for US tariffs. The EU just gave China an October deadline to address their huge --and predictable-- trade imbalance, kicking the can down the road, but pointing to a trade war and/or Hamilton (and Trump) moment ahead, which could prove transformative. Even Paul Krugman is telling the EU to tariff China.
• Industrial policy: which is very much back in vogue, even if what this means is vague for many.
• A compliant central bank: There, the Supreme Court just overturned precedent to allow the White House to remove heads of federal agencies, greatly empowering the executive. It kept FOMC member Cook in her seat for now until due process plays out but did not address whether “for cause” removals at the Fed are also constitutional or not, allowing Trump to restart the process of trying to fire her over allegations of mortgage fraud and, in time, to potentially relitigate if the Fed is a special case or not.

The ECB’s Lagarde, who years ago said the Bank should work hand-in-hand with governments to overcome geopolitical crises, just stated Europe is getting better at coping with economic shocks due to a better financial framework and the green transition. European refineries’ flexibility on jet fuel helped; but China did more by not importing as much oil, and the US and Japan by draining their SPRs, all due to *their* economic statecraft. Now the risk is rising of a China cut-off of rare earths to Europe, which account for half its total (and Russia a quarter), and of more expensive Chinese imports across the board. What if that transpires from October onwards – and if we get more war vs. Iran after the US midterms?

In the UK, the question is ‘Build ‘em up or Burnham down?’ as the soon-to-be UK PM just called to “rewire” the UK economy. He’s talking about devolution - which hasn’t boosted growth in Scotland; equalisation across regions – which most countries want but fail to achieve; (expensive?) public control of utilities; and reindustrialisation – in a period of protectionism and bloc-based realignment. In short, is the UK going to tariff everybody, or the US, or Europe, or China? Logically, one should start from there, not locally, only to then hit a low tariff ceiling on the attempted way back up.

In short, political economy remains in flux. Markets don’t think things through in such detail or depth: whatever happens is an input into the ‘up or down from here’ binary. However, the scale on which things can move up or down based on how political-economy transforms shouldn’t be understated. JPY is at a 40-year low vs. the dollar at time of writing: where will other crosses go as things unfold?

Yet even as politicians --and central bankers-- try to relearn things from first principles, revolutionary change can reshape the architecture which they think they are operating in. For example, regular readers may recall that years ago I floated the idea of letters of marque as a way to channel private sector energies and capital into national security without busting budgets or political constraints like no boots on the ground. On that note, see the following proposal taken from X and think about it seriously:

“A durable solution to the Iran problem is pretty easy:

1. Form the American Persian Energy Company (APEC)
2. Give 25% to Exxon and Chevron, who will capitalize it and provide expertise
3. Ground invasion of Iran, but only with volunteer troops who will be compensated with APEC stock
4. US military provides air cover and logistical support
5. Defecting Iranian generals will also be compensated with a quantity of APEC stock dependent on their rank and the number of soldiers they bring with them
6. All oil and gas rights in Iran are granted to the APEC
7. New $2 trillion American company is created out of thin air
8. Iran temporarily governed by APEC CEO while a transition to a suitable civilian government is negotiated”

If you think this kind of thing doesn’t happen (anymore: it used to) then you haven’t noticed how 18th and 19th century thinking is not just back in vogue but is actively winning vs. the post-Cold War political establishment consensus; or how modern mercenaries like Blackwater operate.

Political economy is changing; it will change much, much more; and markets will change with it. The volatility we are seeing in the Hormuz ‘peacefire’ is just a taste of what’s to come. Some assets will be built up. Others will be burned down.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 10:00

"Right Above The Cockpit": Drone Strikes JetBlue Plane On Final Approach To JFK

JetBlue Airways Flight 948 reportedly struck a small drone while the narrow-body aircraft was in the traffic pattern on final approach to John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City.

JetBlue pilots reported striking a drone earlier today as they approached New York - JFK Airport at ASALT, the waypoint in the center of the video, about 11:16:45 UTC. JetBlue #B6948 landed safely from Las Vegas moments later. The FAA is investigating. https://t.co/6p9iO8nCVv pic.twitter.com/aWdCiJSVJ1

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) June 29, 2026

A JetBlue pilot could be heard talking with Kennedy Tower about the drone strike. The pilot said the jet collided with a drone during a turn about two miles before landing. When the controller asked for confirmation, the pilot said the object struck "right above the cockpit."

"Just quickly, I couldn't talk to approach, but we collided with a drone back there in the turn," the pilot said.

"You said you collided?" the air traffic controller asked.

"Yep, it hit us right, right above the cockpit," the pilot said.

This morning, JetBlue Airbus A321-231 (N979JT) operating flight B6948 from Las Vegas to New York JFK reported a drone strike while on approach to JFK.

According to the crew, the drone struck the aircraft just above the cockpit at approximately 3,000 feet around 7:15 a.m. The… pic.twitter.com/VJNVOoBrW5

— Turbine Traveller (@Turbinetraveler) June 29, 2026

The FAA released a statement shortly after the mid-air incident:

The pilot of JetBlue Airlines Flight 948 reported striking a drone at approximately 3,000 feet altitude while on final approach to John F. Kennedy International Airport around 7:15 a.m. local time on Monday, June 29. A post-flight inspection did not reveal any damage to the aircraft. The FAA will investigate. Contact the airline for more information.

FAA Statement
The pilot of JetBlue Airlines Flight 948 reported striking a drone at approximately 3,000 feet altitude while on final approach to John F. Kennedy International Airport around 7:15 a.m. local time on Monday, June 29. A post-flight inspection did not reveal any…

— The FAA ✈️ (@FAANews) June 29, 2026

The incident is yet another warning that even some of the most heavily monitored and defended airspace in the country remains highly exposed to small, low-cost drones. It also underscores the urgent need for counter-UAS deployments at major airports and other critical infrastructure nodes, including power grids and data centers, before a devastating drone attack becomes a national story across every front page.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 09:45

US-Iran Have Delegations In Qatar, But No Direct Talks; Hormuz Energy Transit Rebounds - Oil Down Near Prewar Levels

The Witkoff-Kushner delegation is now confirmed to be in Doha, and yet in its latest official statement Iran's foreign ministry has made clear the Iranian side has no plans to meet US officials "at any level in the next few days."

"What will probably be done in Doha tomorrow is a discussion on the implementation of clauses of the Memorandum of Understanding, including the clause related to the release of Iran’s restricted assets with the Qatari parties," spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei says. "Therefore, I emphasize that we have not planned any meeting with the American side at any level for the next few days," Baghaei added. Meanwhile:

Iran’s Ghalibaf: If They Do Not Want To Fulfil Their Commitments In The Talks, We Are Ready For War

Tehran is expecting that $6 billion of Iranian frozen funds in Qatar will be transferred back by week's end, but Qatar's foreign ministry indicated Tuesday this had yet to happen. Up for discussion among mediators currently in Qatar is precisely the fate of Iran's frozen funds, and implementing agreed-upon transfers. However, Washington has for days accused Iran's military of violating the ceasefire and its commitments under the MoU - a charge that Tehran has fired back in turn.

via AFP

On Monday President Trump had claimed that Iran "requested a meeting" following the exchange of strikes last week, but no such meeting appears to be materializing - at least not a direct one in Doha. But according to the latest from Al Jazeera Tuesday:

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesman also said that US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are in the country’s capital, Doha, despite having no meetings with Iranian officials scheduled.

Iran remains defiant, insisting that it will not concede anything - especially regards to its control over the Strait of Hormuz, vowing it's ready to return to armed conflict if things can't be resolved at the negotiating table.

Tehran is asserting its 'right' to manage the strait under its own protocol, and while Oman's cooperation has been sought, Iranian officials have said they will proceed with or without Oman's help and that this will include tolls, towards partically funding the reconstruction of Iran.

Part of this entrenched position is Iran wants its frozen assets before peace talks, while the US said is saying it must demonstrate it is worthy first. Fox has cited Baghaei, who "told reports that clauses in Tehran’s interim deal with the U.S. must be implemented before talks on a final agreement can begin."

"Baghaei also said the communication channel between Iran and the U.S. is based on political factions, not military ones," the report said.

Still, despite the apparently unbending positions of the warring sides, oil is responding favorably, as the Trump administration no doubt wants to be on message going into the July 4th holiday:

Oil prices were on track Tuesday for their steepest quarterly decline since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, as investors watched for potential U.S.-Iran talks in Doha amid a strained interim ceasefire in the 4-month-old war.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was headed for a second monthly decline of roughly 19%, while Brent crude was on pace for a third consecutive monthly drop, down about 20% in June.

Both Brent and WTI have fallen sharply this quarter and are trading near pre-war levels as more ships move out of the Gulf, easing some supply concerns.

Hormuz will not return to its pre-war status. Tehran’s position is that the unlawful US-Israeli war on Iran changed the rules of passage. Safe navigation can no longer be treated as a free service imposed on Iran while its waters, coast, and security infrastructure are…

— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) June 30, 2026

This is also amid a rebound in shipping traffic to kick off this week, after tit-for-tat weekend attacks:

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded Tuesday morning, with eight crossings so far after 40 vessels moved through the critical waterway Monday, according to Kpler data.

The rebound comes after some days of declining traffic following attacks on commercial vessels in the region due to renewed strikes between the U.S. and Iran late last week. Crossings fell from 76 on Wednesday, June 24, to 59 on Thursday, when the Ever Lovely was attacked.

Traffic then dropped to 50 crossings Friday, 39 on Saturday, when the Kiku was attacked, and just 24 on Sunday before recovering to 40 on Monday.

Of Monday’s 40 crossings, 10 vessels used the southern Omani route, which the U.S. Navy is helping coordinate. Thirty-two of the 40 vessels were large tankers and bulk carriers.

In fresh comments on the status of energy transit in the Strait of Hormuz, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said in a fresh media interview reported in Bloomberg that only China has bought Iranian oil since the US lifted sanctions.

Strong signaling out of Israeli defense establishment, following Monday remarks by Katz...

'Israel is preparing for the immediate resumption of military operations against Iran.'

Senior Middle East Correspondent @ariel_oseran joins @benitalevin on #TheRundown pic.twitter.com/8c7YfNgaMP

— i24NEWS English (@i24NEWS_EN) June 30, 2026

"Iranians thus far have not been able to sell their oil, because the buyers are a little weary of, will it be resanctioned?" Bessent posed on Fox, noting that it's still trading at a discount to China.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 09:30

In his memoir, "Cancel Me If You Can," the Barstool Sports founder said the women had a change of heart about their pay and contracts after meeting with Logan Paul.

In his memoir, "Cancel Me If You Can," the Barstool Sports founder said the women had a change of heart about their pay and contracts after meeting with Logan Paul.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fired back at Sen. Bill Cassidy over his accusations that he broke certain promises about a government health website's description of vaccines and autism as well as guardrails for public health policy.

Gilbert, also a former child star, begged parents to consider the impact of getting their kids into the entertainment industry.

Gilbert, also a former child star, begged parents to consider the impact of getting their kids into the entertainment industry.

Obamacare Enrollment Drops By 3 Million; Experts Disagree On Cause

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

Obamacare enrollment declined by nearly 3 million in 2026, sparking renewed debate about the affordability of healthcare in America.

National politicians and policy experts disagreed on the reasons for the dip in enrollment, with some saying that it was driven by rising premiums. 

Others said the decline was evidence that program integrity measures taken by the Trump administration were successful in rooting out fraud and waste. 

The program grew significantly during the declared National Health Emergency from 2021 through 2024, when eligibility verification requirements were relaxed and participants were automatically reenrolled.

Enrollment peaked at 22.1 million last year and dropped to 19.2 million as of February, according to federal data released June 26.

Though that’s still higher than in any year except 2025, some analysts interpreted the decline as a massive loss of coverage resulting from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025.

“One year later, the Trump administration’s policies are bleeding the revenue of the American tax system and have left millions of Americans without health coverage and food assistance,” Amina Khalique and Natasha Murphy wrote in a June 25 article for Center for American Progress, writing on the anniversary of the bill’s passage.

Others including Brian Blase, president of Paragon Health Institute, say that the changes mostly reverted to pre-pandemic coverage and policy rules, which had been an incentive for fraud. 

“Excessive subsidies and zero-premium plans created unusually strong incentives for improper enrollment, while weak verification systems, permissive enrollment pathways, and insufficient oversight allowed those incentives to be exploited at scale,” Blase wrote in a June analysis.

The Trump Administration has focused on program integrity, preventing about 2.9 million enrollees from receiving Obamacare subsidies that they didn’t qualify for, according to a statement from the assistant secretary for Health and Human Services.

The government estimates that 2.6 million fraudulent enrollments remain in the program, down from an estimated high of 5.6 million last year.

Either way, the changes left millions uninsured, according to some experts. 

About 9 percent of 2025 Obamacare enrollees became uninsured as of March, according to a survey conducted by health research group KFF.

“While the Trump administration attributes this drop in enrollment to their attempts to address fraud, this coverage loss happened at the same time millions of people faced steep increases in their premium payments,” Cynthia Cox, a senior vice president at KFF, wrote on social media on June 29.

“Real people lost their health insurance or are now paying more,” Cox said.

The average monthly premium for 2026 is $178, compared to $113 in 2025, according to KFF. However, the 2026 premium is lower than the 2021 premium after adjusting for inflation.

The benchmark silver premium, which is used to set subsidy rates, increased by about 25 percent in 2026, according to KFF.

Democrats seized on the enrollment data to criticize President Donald Trump and Republicans over healthcare affordability. 

“Trump and congressional Republicans let healthcare premiums explode and now millions of Americans can’t afford coverage,” Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) wrote on social media on June 29.

“That’s not right,” said Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, responding to the argument that premium increases have forced people off of the program. 

“The reality is we have a lot of fake people on the policies,” Oz told Fox News on June 29. 

Oz cited that 40 percent of enrollees never use the policies as proof that many either do not want the coverage, do not realize they have it, or were fraudulently enrolled.

Prior to the introduction of the enhanced subsidies in 2021, Obamacare enrollment had declined for four years.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 09:15

The seven-time Wimbledon champ returns to the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club today.

US Home Prices Drop For 3rd Straight Month

Home prices in America's top 20 cities were expected to fall MoM for the 3rd straight month in April (the latest reported data from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller) and they did... but only marginally.

Prices fell 0.04% MoM in April (less than the 0.10% decline expected), but the annual change rose modestly from +0.88% YoY to +1.14% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

"Monthly price movements show seasonal strength masking underlying softness," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The oddly tight coupling with Fed Reserves suggests the path is lower...

"Geographic dispersion remains pronounced," Godec continued.

"Midwest and Northeast markets are still leading moderate growth, while many Sun Belt and Western metros see ongoing declines.

Chicago was again the strongest market with a 6.5% annual gain, trailed by New York (3.8%) and Cleveland (3.2%).

Seattle’s 2.3% year-over-year drop was the steepest in April, with Denver (-1.8%), Tampa (-1.8%), Dallas (-1.6%), and Phoenix (-1.7%) also among the notable decliners.

The nearly 9 percent performance spread between Chicago and Seattle highlights how localized housing trends remain.

On a YoY basis, Chicago reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 6.5% increase in April, followed by New York and Cleveland with annual increases of 3.8% and 3.2%, respectively.

Seattle posted the lowest return in April, falling 2.3%.

The chart below compares year-over-year returns for different housing price ranges (tiers) in Chicago.

"The affordability pinch remains a key headwind," Godec concluded.

"After dipping below 6% earlier this year, 30-year mortgage rates climbed back to 6.3% in April, keeping financing costs elevated. In this higher-rate environment, home price growth remains constrained, with housing largely treading water in nominal terms and falling in real terms."

Finally, with inflation accelerating to 3.8% in April, U.S. home values have now declined in real terms for an 11th straight month, further eroding inflation-adjusted housing wealth.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 09:09