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John Cena and Eric André get up to big sibling shenanigans in this Netflix comedy.

How Wall Street Launders Dogsh*t Into Retirement Funds

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

One of the more embarrassing habits of modern finance is its insistence on pretending the stock market has some integrity left.

Capital, we used to think, flowed to the most productive businesses. Prices reflected fundamentals. Risk was priced. The market, in the long run, separated signal from noise and rewarded cash generation over fantasy. That is the civics-class version of markets, and at this point it bears no resemblance to the one we actually trade in.

The market’s core failure right now is not simply overvaluation. Markets have always produced overvalued stocks. The deeper problem is that speculative inflation can now be mechanically converted into benchmark legitimacy and then forcibly distributed to passive investors as “diversification.”

In other words, the modern market increasingly allows stocks to get bid up through narrative, call option activity and momentum, then ratifies those bloated valuations through index inclusion, and finally pipes them directly into the retirement system through ETFs, mutual funds and model portfolios.

This is why we see ridiculous things like companies with negative earnings outperforming companies with positive earnings. “Something is broken in price discovery…” wrote Apollo’s Chief Economist about this chart last week:

He’s right. It’s not price discovery. It is a structural conveyor belt for institutionalizing air pockets and gutting the once conservative retirement and pension accounts millions of Americans depend on to be there for them in due time.

I laid this out in detail using SpaceX as an example on a recent interview I did with Adam Taggart. I used SpaceX as an example not because it’s the first company to ever do this — hell, I saw it all the time with Chinese reverse takeover scams back in the day — but because it’s the most recent…and definitely the most egregious.

The same critique people are beginning to make about SpaceX valuation applies more broadly to the public market. Narrative and scarcity can overwhelm cash economics for a very long time, especially when investors are convinced they are looking at a once-in-a-generation story.

In private markets that can happen through funding rounds, manufactured scarcity and marks that drift upward because nobody has to test them in public every day. Until, as we’re seeing in private credit, people eventually discover the “price” they were quoted doesn’t reflect reality and they rush to get their money back.

In public markets, the mechanism is different but the result rhymes: options flows, benchmark inclusion and passive ownership can all work together to preserve valuations that have floated far above what the underlying cash economics would ordinarily justify. And the rush to the exits ends the same way: there isn’t enough room for everyone to get out, all at once.

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That is the part that should make people uncomfortable, because it means the market is no longer merely tolerating excess. It is operationalizing it. The sequence is now obvious enough that it should not require euphemism.

First comes the inflation phase. A company captures the market’s imagination with a story large enough to suspend ordinary valuation discipline. Maybe it is AI. Maybe it is autonomous driving. Maybe it is space. Maybe it is simply the promise of scale, disruption and a giant total addressable market that no one will ever bother discounting back to the present. Whatever the story is, the important point is that the story arrives first and the cash generation can show up later, if at all.

Second, the options market does what it now routinely does in modern finance: it takes a speculative move and turns it into a reflexive one. Call buying forces dealer hedging. Dealer hedging forces more buying. The stock rises because the stock is rising. Price momentum becomes its own justification. “The market” appears to be voting in favor of the company, when in reality part of the move may have nothing to do with a sober reassessment of long-term cash flows and everything to do with plumbing. That alone would be enough to cheapen the credibility of price discovery. But the real damage comes from what happens next.

For the better part of the last two decades, and especially in the post-crisis era, markets have also been conditioned by a policy regime that repeatedly suppressed the cost of risk, flooded the system with liquidity and trained investors to expect intervention when things broke. The lesson absorbed by an entire generation of speculators was not that risk had disappeared, but that it had become someone else’s problem. Drawdowns were increasingly treated as temporary policy events. Volatility was an inconvenience. Valuation discipline became optional. If enough liquidity can be sprayed into the system whenever it seizes up, the market stops functioning as a mechanism for pricing risk and starts functioning as a machine for routing around it.

So by the time a stock has been inflated by story, momentum and options reflexivity, it is already trading in an environment where skepticism has been structurally disadvantaged. Then comes the canonization phase.

Third, once the market cap is bloated enough, index inclusion becomes automatic. The stock enters the benchmark not because anyone sat down and decided it was sensibly valued, but because the rules say it is now too large to ignore. At that point the character of ownership changes. Passive funds buy it because they have to. Retirement accounts buy it because they have to. Target-date funds buy it because they have to. Model portfolios buy it because they have to. Financial advisors buy it because “the index” is sold as prudence itself. What began as a valuation inflated by narrative, liquidity and options mechanics is suddenly institutionalized by passive ownership.

This is where the market stops being a market and starts looking more like a laundering operation.

A bloated valuation gets transformed into benchmark legitimacy, and benchmark legitimacy gets transformed into compulsory ownership by people who are explicitly trying not to speculate. The retiree buying an S&P 500 ETF is not making an active judgment on the most inflated companies in the index. He is trying to avoid making active judgments altogether. That is the whole point. But the system has arranged things so that his caution becomes the exit liquidity for somebody else’s euphoria.

And then the distortion deepens further, because overvalued names do not merely sit inside the index. They become the index, as we discussed in my above interview.

This is the part the passive revolution would rather not talk about. The benchmark is supposed to be the antidote to individual-stock insanity. You may not know which company is overhyped, fraudulent, or structurally unsound, but the index protects you because you own everything. Diversification is the defense. Except diversification stops working the way people imagine it does when the same overvalued names swell large enough to dominate the benchmark itself. At that point the index is no longer neutralizing the bubble. It is warehousing it.

And because this process is mediated through “passive” products, it becomes almost invisible. There is no dramatic moment when someone rings a bell and announces that the benchmark now contains a giant blister of overvaluation at its center. No one says the quiet part out loud: that a stock whose valuation was inflated by options flows and euphoric liquidity is now being preserved by forced passive ownership, and that this is happening inside the very products sold to the public as the safest, most diversified entrance into markets. Instead, the distortion gets laundered into respectability. Once a company sits inside the index, skepticism begins to sound unserious. If it’s in everyone’s retirement account, how crazy can it be?

Quite crazy, actually. Because if options, liquidity and narrative can help create the inflation, and index inclusion can help preserve it, then the crash mechanism is not exactly difficult to imagine. Once the story breaks, or liquidity tightens, or the options reflex flips, the same structure that held the valuation aloft can produce an air pocket on the way down. Passive ownership does not eliminate volatility. It can concentrate it. A stock that has become a major index weight does not just fall as an individual company. It drags on the benchmark itself. The “safe” diversified vehicle becomes the transmission mechanism through which the excess is spread to everyone, which is why I argued days ago that SpaceX could become “systemic”.

Quick note: this is why I own equal weighted ETFs for the S&P and not market cap weighted ETFs. In RSP (instead of SPY), every company carries approximately the same weighting.

That single structural difference dramatically changes the risk profile. Technology falls to around 18.27% of the fund instead of nearly 36%. Industrials become a much larger piece at 14.69%, financial services rise to 14.41%, and healthcare accounts for roughly 10.91%.

Instead of being overwhelmingly dependent on AI enthusiasm and mega-cap growth, RSP spreads exposure across the broader American economy. When I decided to completely stop trading and turn my last portfolio over to advisors, I requested SPY be excluded in favor of RSP for future recurring buys, as I expect it will plunge less than SPY if the market starts to tank.

The incentive is obvious. If a company can get its valuation high enough, through narrative, momentum, options activity and a market environment conditioned to treat risk as a rounding error, it can cross into a different category of ownership altogether. If executive compensation is based on milestones tied to market cap, revenue and KPIs and not actual profitability, you can become a trillionaire on three companies that have cumulatively made barely $50 billion in profit.

It no longer needs every marginal buyer to make a fresh, disciplined case for the business. It gets absorbed into the benchmark. From there, a portion of demand becomes automatic. Valuation no longer has to be defended in the old-fashioned way, through cash flows, margins and capital discipline, because the market structure itself begins doing part of the work.

That is the scandal. Not that some stocks are expensive. Not that markets occasionally get excited. Not that manias happen. The scandal is that the architecture of the modern market increasingly allows valuations to be inflated by reflexive mechanics, ratified by index rules and then distributed into the retirement system under the label of prudence.

At some point, we should be able to ask whether this still deserves to be called a market in the traditional sense. Markets are supposed to allocate capital, price risk and reward productive enterprise over fantasy. But what do you call a system in which cash-losing companies can outrun cash-generating ones for years, where options flows can overwhelm fundamental analysis, where a long era of monetary excess has dulled the fear of downside to the point that risk itself starts to feel optional, and where the benchmark products sold as prudent long-term investing become the vessel through which concentrated valuation distortions are transmitted to the public?

You call it structurally broken. OK, or, at a minimum, you stop pretending not to notice, for f*ck’s sake.

Because the most absurd part of this entire arrangement is not the distortion itself. It is the refusal to ask serious questions about it. We are now far enough into this cycle of options-driven inflation, passive absorption and index concentration that the mechanism is visible in plain sight. It is not some fringe theory. It is a description of how modern market plumbing interacts with investor behavior, monetary excess and benchmark design.

So the real question is no longer whether the market can keep getting weirder. Of course it can. The real question is when we stop treating these distortions as amusing side effects and start treating them as evidence that the structure itself is rotten. When do we stop calling it diversification when the same overvalued names are swelling at the center of every index? When do we stop pretending that forced passive ownership is a neutral outcome rather than a way of institutionalizing euphoria? When do we stop nodding along as options-driven inflation gets converted into benchmark legitimacy and then into retirement-account exposure?

And when, exactly, do we admit that a market which can be gamed this way is not merely overheated, but fundamentally unserious? Sadly, I know the answer. After the wreckage and the crash, when it’s too late.

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QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 15:25

Applied ergonomics for the win!

Made a baby? What now?

China's YMTC Global NAND Market Share Surges To 13%, Now Tied With Sandisk

Yangtze Memory Technologies Corporation (YMTC), China's largest maker of NAND flash memory which is breathing down Sandisk's neck in global sales, and which is widely expected to IPO soon after China's DDR giant CXMT goes public in the coming weeks, has increased its global NAND flash memory market share from 8% in the same period in 2025 to 13%, Kuai Technology reported citing the latest Counterpoint research report.

According to Counterpoint, Samsung ranks first in the global NAND market with a 29% revenue share, followed by SK Hynix at 18%, while YMTC ranks fifth, tied with Sandisk, and is about to tie Japan's Kioxia for fourth position in global marketshare. YMTC increased its market share to 13% from 8% in Q1 2025, boosted by memory shortages and rising prices.

The Wuhan-based YMTC has recorded double-digit growth for three consecutive quarters, with revenue reaching $2.6 billion in the first quarter of 2026, up nearly 445% year-on-year.

Major Korean players such as Samsung and SK Hynix said that the pace of Chinese memory chipmakers’ catch-up has exceeded expectations.

According to the latest report from market research firm Counterpoint Research, YMTC has become the fastest-growing company in the global NAND market. Korean industry insiders believe that its rapid expansion in both technology and production capacity is directly threatening the market positions of Samsung and SK Hynix.

Amid the global shortage for DDR and NAND ram, China is rapidly emerging as the biggest wildcard. With both CXMT and YMTC expected to go public shortly and raise billions in new capital, expect China to aggressively pursue market share in the only way that China knows how: by aggressively undercutting all its competitors on price. 

In April, DigiTimes reported that YMTC passed Apple’s verification test and will begin supplying storage chips for the company in May. YMTC would become the first Chinese company to supply Apple with NAND chips, and Apple’s third flash memory chip supplier after US-based Kioxia and Korea-based SK Hynix.

A report by Bloomberg said that Apple has been testing chips from Yangtze Memory for months, but the deal has yet to be confirmed, with Apple currently weighing different options. In light of the recent price increases by Apple, one can be absolutely certain that Apple will announce - in weeks if not days - a major commercial partnership with YMTC which will aggressively undercut all of its flash competitors on price as it sees to catch up to Korean giants Samsung and SK Hynix. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 15:00

The Dutch can clinch Group F on Thursday. 

Remember the last time Cam Schlitter and Connelly Early faced one another?

It's like a tiny doctor's office waiting room — but the nurse never comes to save you.

Knicks second-round draft pick Jack Kayil has earned nothing but praise from his peers overseas.

Keeping up with the prom joneses.

Apple, Microsoft Tumble On Abrupt Price Hikes Amid Chip-Crunch Contagion; Wall Street Responds

Summary:

• Memory Chip Crunch Crisis May Unleash Flood Of Consumer Device Companies Hiking Prices 
• Microsoft Hikes Prices on Xbox 
• Apple Hikes Prices on Macs and iPads

Wall Street Responds To Apple Hikes 

Apple shares were down 5.5% in late-afternoon trading, on track for their largest intraday decline in 15 months, as the stock tumbled into correction territory. Shares are now down about 14% from their early June peak near $317.

Investors appear spooked by Apple's rare overnight price hike, which boosted Mac computers by 15% to 20% and iPad prices by 15% to 25%.

An Apple spokesperson said that "the rapid expansion of AI data centers has created an extraordinary surge in demand for memory and storage" and that the company has "never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly."

JP Morgan equity research analyst Samik Chatterjee offered clients three takeaways from Apple's price hikes:

1. Higher-than-expected magnitude of price increases on announced SKUs could drive pressure on volume expectations for Macs and iPads, which have been able to deliver robust share gains recently with Apple delaying price increases relative to competition.

2. The magnitude of the price increases announced leads us to believe that our earlier expectations for a mid-single-digit increase in iPhone pricing in conjunction with an announced launch in September is likely to be too optimistic, although we still expect Apple to use additional levers to limit the magnitude of price increases on iPhones with greater volume and installed base implications relative to the price increase announced today

3. The company continues to balance market share, revenue growth, and profitability objectives, which should reassure investors around the resilience of earnings growth drivers.

Price Hikes:

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives noted, "While Apple is well known for using its huge memory and storage purchases as leverage to secure low prices, the current memory price increases have forced Apple's hand to raise prices, but we believe the company is in a strong position to increase prices without sacrificing hardware performance and risking increasing customer churn given the company's increasing focus on the higher-end consumer." 

UBS analyst David Vogt also responded to the price hikes, telling clients that while no new iPhone price adjustments were announced on Thursday, there is reason to believe that "iPhone price increases are likely in the fall."

Vogt explained:

We expect iPhone price increases in the fall but likely flows in FY27 ests In conjunction with the expected launch of new iPhones in the fall, we expect Apple to lift effective prices anywhere from $50 to $100 along with possibly changing specs to offset the share rise in DRAM and NAND. For a typical $1,000 iPhone, memory was around $50 to $60 or a mid-single digit % of the BOM before the sharp rise in memory prices. With normalized/blended iPhone gross margins in the low 40s% range prior to recent memory dynamics, memory related BOM depending on the nature of LTAs could now be ~20% implying a broad based price increase approaching $100 could be an offset, hence we forecast 'Product' gross margin stability in FY27 in the 37-38% range.

Beyond Apple's price hikes on Thursday, Microsoft also raised prices on Xbox consoles, suggesting the memory-chip squeeze can not be contained by big tech consumer device companies. MSFT shares were down around 2.4% in late afternoon trading. 

We expect more device makers heavily exposed to memory chip price volatility to adjust prices in the coming weeks and months, especially given the chip crunch will persist through year's end.

Apple Price Shock: Macs And iPads Jump $200 Or More As Memory Crisis Worsens

Readers were warned as early as late January to front-run the coming memory shortage by purchasing their favorite electronics, whether PCs, laptops, TVs, smartphones, or anything else dependent on high-end memory chips, as unprecedented data-center demand was already beginning to emerge.

Fast forward nearly five months, and just two weeks after Apple CEO Tim Cook warned that "price increases are unavoidable" for laptops and other devices, a Wall Street Journal report has confirmed that those hikes have now been passed along, potentially delivering sticker shock to customers.

Here's what happened earlier: The Apple Online Store briefly went down, and when it came back online, prices for Mac computers jumped 15% to 20%, while iPad prices increased 15% to 25%.

The company briefly took down its Apple Online Store early this morning as it typically does when announcing new products. When it came back online, the price tags for Mac computers rose roughly 15% to 20% and iPad prices rose 15% to 25%. Among the price increases, the base MacBook Air rose $200 to $1,299; the base MacBook Pro increased $300 to $1,999; the entry-level MacBook Neo increased $100 to $699. The iPad Air increased $150 to $749 and the iPad Pro increased $200 to $1,199. -WSJ

Vision Pro became even more unaffordable.

*APPLE RAISES VISION PRO HEADSET PRICE TO $3,699 FROM $3,499

*APPLE HOMEPOD NOW $349, HOMEPOD MINI IS $129, APPLE TV TO $199

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 25, 2026

However, iPhone prices remained unchanged, but the company told the outlet in a statement that additional price hikes could be on the way.

"We have now reached a point where we need to begin raising prices," Apple said in the statement. "We have never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly."

An Apple spokesperson placed the blame on the "rapid expansion of AI data centers, which has created an extraordinary surge in demand for memory and storage," and this is why component prices surged.

Earlier this month, Cook told WSJ that price increases had become "unavoidable" because of higher component costs, adding, "There's less supply at a time when consumers want devices, and the memory guys are passing along huge price increases."

Apple has historically revealed price hikes with new launches of iPhones, iPads, and other devices, making this overnight price hike extraordinarily rare.  

The high-end chip market is dominated by US-based Micron and South Korea's SK Hynix and Samsung, which have all seen massive demand for high-bandwidth memory from AI "hyperscalers" such as Google, Meta, and Amazon.

Apple's price hikes come hours after Micron delivered blowout quarterly earnings, touting gross profit margins that topped 80%. Shares soared nearly 18% in premarket trading.

Micron executives told investors that "tight conditions" will persist beyond 2027 and that only suggests further price hikes are coming not just for Apple but also for other major big tech firms that sell devices.

Micron Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana said in a WSJ interview last night that "a couple of the customers who were being very aggressive with pricing at that time were not constructive," without naming Apple...

Sadana noted, "A lot of the industry investments got shut down in 2023 because of really poor pricing and really poor margins."

A recent Morgan Stanley note found that memory prices have climbed sixfold over the past year, with new manufacturing capacity likely to take years to build and ramp up.

The iPhone price hike may be unavoidable: JPMorgan analysts estimate DRAM and NAND could jump from roughly 10% to 15% of an iPhone's total component cost today to more than 45% by 2027.

Memory price spikes are already showing up in the Producer Price Index for semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing.

At what point does Trump start raging at soaring memory prices

PPI Electronic Components is pulling entire core index higher pic.twitter.com/v9ufHmx0gG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 11, 2026

... and at what point does President Trump start raging at memory prices, just as his administration has successfully sent oil prices crashing by entering a diplomatic phase with Tehran to secure a permanent peace deal?

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 14:50

Your spare change could soon hold a piece of rare history.

Jaylen Brown has been passed over yet again.

"The lack of any actual safety policy, or even concern frankly, is the very definition of capricious decision making, as well as a stunning offense to public trust," the lawsuit said.

Conservative Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito could barely contain himself Thursday after liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor read her full dissent in an immigration case from the bench.

Top JPMorgan DEI Executive Identified And Fired In NYC Trash Can Viral Video

Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org,

The viral video of a woman stealing a trash can and dumping its contents after the Knicks' victory has led to her termination. Angie Baez, 40, was the "Executive Director of Community and Industry Engagement for Card and Connected Commerce" for JPMorgan Chase.

She was shown in a video dumping trash on the ground to steal a Knicks-colored trash can after the NBA Finals. JPMorgan apparently concluded that this was neither the publicity nor the type of Community Engagement they are seeking.

The videotape of the incident shocked many by Baez's cavalier attitude, not just in stealing the trash can but in dumping out the garbage.

        View this post on Instagram                      

A post shared by New York Post Sports (@nypostsports)

The New York Post later reported that the woman had been identified as Angie Baez. She previously served as "Executive Director of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion" at The Infatuation, a website that reviews restaurants and neighborhood activities.

Once she was identified, JPMorgan Chase issued a statement, "This employee is no longer with the company."

We have often discussed the difficult questions surrounding the termination of employees for speech in their private lives that is considered harmful to an employer. Whether it is conduct or speech, private companies often reserve the right to terminate any employee who brings negative attention to the company, even when they do not reference or display an association with the company. In today's web-savvy world, it does not take long for motivated individuals to learn the identity and associations of public figures.

We have seen companies fire employees for drunken displays and abusing others in viral videotapes. There is little recourse in such cases, particularly for at-will employees.

In the case of Baez, she falls into the same category as Adam Smith (not the economist), who made a fool out of himself at a Chick-fil-A.

Ultimately, Baez was not even allowed to keep the trash can. She was also given a $75 fine for littering and a $100 fine for impeding Department of Sanitation operations. That proved to be an expensive memento for the Knicks victory.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 14:40

Marlins announcer Tommy Hutton was upset with fans for not celebrating Sandy Alcantara’s record-breaking strikeout before it was announced on the scoreboard. Alcantara became the Marlins’ all-time strikeout leader during Tuesday night’s 6-4 win over the Rangers. “The problem I have, most of the fans here tonight should know that without having to look at the scoreboard,”...

The classified Class II recall, means it "involves a health hazard situation where there is a remote probability of adverse health consequences from use of the product," according to the FSIS website.

Prime Day's kicking Ninja's prices while they're down.

The Wall Street Journal reported that both Trump and Ellison viewed CNN as biased against conservatives and the administration.