Authored by Matt Badiali via DailyReckoning.com,
The headlines are screaming that gold is falling.
And it’s true. The price dipped below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since November 2025.
This seems backward. There are multiple wars going on in the world. Fuel prices are high. Gold is supposed to be the “safe haven” asset. Why isn’t it going up?
Well, as analysts from LPL Financial, the largest broker-dealer in the U.S. said, gold is doing what it’s supposed to do. It’s acting as financial insurance.
Analysts at giant bank, Goldman Sachs estimated that if the war lasted into April, it would cause economic contractions.
UAE: -3%
Saudi Arabia: -5%
Kuwait/Qatar: -14%
Iran: -15% (IMF estimate)
In addition, countries like Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq, and Turkey have fragile economies. They can’t afford to have fuel costs spikes.
Because oil is priced in dollars, something these countries don’t have enough of, higher prices create severe economic disruptions.
Turkey faced soaring inflation due to high fuel costs. The country’s central bank sold gold to offset the impact. Turkey sold $3 billion’ worth of gold in a single week in March.
This is gold as an insurance policy. When your economy runs on oil exports that don’t get delivered or you can’t afford the soaring fuel prices, you cash in your insurance policy…gold.
That’s what’s going on in many countries today. Instead of storing value, gold is sold to create liquidity.
And so much of it got sold that it pushed the price down nearly 35%.
And as you would expect, falling gold prices are sending shock waves through the mining industry. As you can see below, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is down nearly 35% since March 2026:
This is a combination of falling gold prices and investors taking profits. From January 2025 to March 2026, GDX rose 240%. That’s a lot of profit to be cashed in. And investors are taking that money off the table.
That’s good news for gold investors because it will create buying opportunities. These gold miners still make a ton of money. So, the price to earnings ratios are even lower now than before.
But I have my eye on the development projects. And as gold prices fall, it will send those stocks down even further. These are the companies building new mines. They have no revenue and need money to build their mines. For many analysts, that presents too much risk.
But to me, that’s an opportunity. Remember, all the current mines are running out of metal. They need to replace them with new mines. That’s why the development projects are so valuable. And they don’t lose their long-term value because of a short-term dip in the gold price.
And make no mistake, this dip won’t last long. It took massive selling to push it down this far. I expect to see a huge rebound soon, as those sales trickle down.
For those of you who love gold, this is an opportunity to add physical at a great price. For those of you who like speculations, the gold stocks are ripe for the taking. Use this dip to add to your positions or build a whole new portfolio.
You don’t get these opportunities often. Recognize this one and use it to make some money.
Tyler Durden Thu, 06/25/2026 - 10:20