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Primoris Services Crashes Again As Guidance Cut And Mgmt Missteps Spook Wall Street
Shares of Primoris Services crashed in premarket trading after the infrastructure contractor slashed its full-year earnings outlook (again) and announced the departure of its chief operating officer.
The specialty construction and infrastructure contractor, which builds, maintains, and engineers critical infrastructure for utilities, energy, renewables, pipelines, power generation, industrial, chemical, oil and gas, civil infrastructure, and data-center power projects, blamed the guidance cut on weakness in its renewables business, where full-year revenue is now expected to fall about 30% from 2025 levels.
Primoris lowered its adjusted earnings forecast to $2.05 to $2.60 a share, well below the prior $4.80 to $5 range and the $4.74 Bloomberg consensus estimate. Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be $275 million to $325 million, down from a previous range of $480 million to $500 million.
"The Company is also anticipating lower revenue and gross profit for the full year 2026, primarily driven by lower expected revenue and gross profit in the Renewables business,"the company wrote in a press release. The warning comes as the Trump administration has focused on dialing back solar and wind projects in favor of reliable fossil-fuel power generation to shore up the fragile grid after an era of disastrous climate policies by the Biden-Harris regime.
Snapshot of full-year forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):
- Sees adjusted EPS $2.05 to $2.60, saw $4.80 to $5, estimate $4.74 (Bloomberg Consensus)
- Sees adjusted Ebitda $275 million to $325 million, saw $480.0 million to $500.0 million, estimate $477.1 million
- Sees EPS $1.30 to $1.85, saw $4.05 to $4.25
Shares tumbled 34% in premarket trading, one month after plunging 50% on disappointing results and a guidance cut. As of Monday's close, the stock was down 13% this year.
Institutional commentary:
1. Wolfe Research analyst Steve Fleishman commented on the dismal earnings: "Painful second guidance cut following several signs indicating another blow up. The good news, it's still just the six solar projects. Credibility concerns remain, but the $2B of bookings highlight demand remains as strong as ever for E&Cs."
2. KeyBanc analyst Sangita Jain noted, "We need to step away until a clear picture of the underlying renewables business emerges and steps to right the ship become evident."
3. Guggenheim analyst Joseph Osha wrote, "We reiterate our Buy rating and support for PRIM's stock following the relatively predictable cut to numbers yesterday. The company's CEO and board have made a series of significant mistakes in our view, but those mistakes do not reduce the underlying value of PRIM's businesses, especially those outside of the troubled renewable segment. Our price target continues to stand at $162."
4. JPMorgan analyst Mark Strouse published his first take, indicating, "First Take: Digging a Hole; PRIM Significantly Lowers Guidance Again, More Leadership Changes."
Strouse provided clients with an adjusted EBITDA midpoint guidance pathway that management has laid out to investors over the course of the year, showing a significant rerating lower as execution problems in the renewables segment worsened.
Analysts tracked by Bloomberg show 10 "Buy" ratings, 4 "Neutrals," and 1 "Sell", with a $140 average 12-month price target.
2025 and 2026 gains have been mostly wiped out.
Certaintly Primoris has evaporated all confidence from the market with a series of material downside surprises to guidance over the last several months.
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Oracle Cuts 21,000 Jobs As AI Adoption Deepens And Credit Risk Flashes GFC-Era Highs
Oracle disclosed in a Form 10-K filing that it reduced its workforce by 21,000 employees over the past year as it automates white-collar jobs and frees up cash to splurge on AI infrastructure buildouts.
"Our periodic workforce restructurings and reorganizations can be disruptive," Oracle said in the annual financial regulatory publsihed on Monday, adding, "We have an existing restructuring plan in place under which we have made, and will continue to make, adjustments to our workforce in response to management changes, product changes, performance issues, changes in strategies, acquisitions and other internal and external considerations."
It noted, "We may initiate new restructuring plans in the future. In addition, the adoption and deployment of AI technologies across our operations have resulted, and may continue to result, in reductions to our workforce."
The filing detailed how the tech giant ended its fiscal year with 141,000 full-time employees, down from 162,000 a year earlier. Costs associated with the workforce reduction totaled around $1.8 billion.
The labor cuts come as Oracle faces pressure amid its $55.7 billion capital expenditure spending spree in fiscal 2026, which is almost entirely tied to its AI cloud and data center buildout. That was up from $21.2 billion in fiscal 2025, meaning capex more than doubled year over year.
For fiscal 2027, Oracle is guiding even higher: about $70 billion in capex, plus another $20 billion to $25 billion of spending that it expects customers to repay. That implies up to $95 billion for AI and data-center capex in the current fiscal year.
Bloomberg was the first to report in March that Oracle planned to cut its workforce as it aggressively spent on AI data center buildouts.
Wall Street analysts forecast that the cloud unit's data center spending will drive Oracle's cash flow negative through the end of the decade, with a payoff not expected until 2030. In January, Oracle announced plans to raise $50 billion in debt and equity.
ORCL 5 Year CDS exploded to record highs ...
ORCL 5 Year CDS vs. Oracle equity
The labor restructuring should come as no surprise, as we cited Barclays earlier this year, which proposed that the "next step" for Oracle to drive free cash flow would be to lay off between 20,000 and 30,000 employees.
Read:
- A Panicking Oracle Plans To Raise Up To $50 Billion, As Its Stock And Bonds Crater
- Oracle Firing Tens Of Thousands As CDS Explodes To Financial Crisis Record
- Oracle Prepares To Axe Thousands Of Jobs In New Layoff Round
Oracle has joined the growing party of tech giants, including Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Xai, and others, that have outlined AI capex plans this year, collectively totaling $800 billion.
Last month, Meta axed some 8,000 jobs as the great "white-collar purge" continues across corporate America. AI has led to about 50,000 layoffs so far this year in the US, with IBM and Salesforce announcing large cuts.
Related:
Oracle appears to be using labor restructuring to start digging itself out of the considerable hole it has dug, with more layoffs likely this year.