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Relish in our victory.

When Will Gasoline Prices Return To Pre-War Levels?

Authored by Robert Rapier via OilPrice.com,

• Oil futures have quickly priced in a favorable outcome from U.S.-Iran diplomacy, but physical oil flows, shipping networks, and refinery supply chains take much longer to normalize.

• Low global inventories and the need to replenish strategic and commercial stockpiles could create significant demand for crude even after supply disruptions ease.

• Gasoline prices are influenced by refining capacity, inventories, distribution costs, and seasonal demand, meaning pump prices may remain elevated even if crude oil continues to fall.

Gasoline prices have started to fall, and that is welcome news for drivers. After months of pain at the pump following the war with Iran and the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, even modest relief is noticeable.

But falling from crisis levels is not the same thing as returning to normal.

That distinction may define the next several months in the oil market. The developing U.S.-Iran agreement has given traders a reason to mark down crude prices. Markets are forward-looking, and they have quickly priced in a scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Gulf exports resume, and the energy shock that pushed gasoline prices sharply higher begins to fade.

That may ultimately prove correct. But the physical oil market does not move as quickly as futures prices. Tanker routes, insurance markets, shipping backlogs, refinery crude slates, and depleted inventories all take time to normalize. Even if the diplomatic framework holds, the path back to pre-war gasoline prices is likely to be slower and more uneven than the recent drop in crude prices might suggest.

Prices Are Falling, But From Very High Levels

The national average gasoline price had climbed from under $3 a gallon before the conflict to more than $4 during the spring. Over the past three months, gasoline prices were more than $1 a gallon above pre-war levels, with consumers facing the combined effect of higher crude oil prices, refinery disruptions, and seasonal fuel demand.

That is why recent declines can be both real and incomplete. A drop from $4.50 to $4.05 is meaningful. It helps household budgets and eases some inflation pressure. But it still leaves gasoline far above where it was before the conflict began.

This is where the public conversation can become misleading. If prices fall for several weeks, some will argue that the oil shock is over. But the relevant question is not whether gasoline prices can come down from their highs. They already have. The better question is whether they can quickly return to pre-war levels.

That is a very different question.

Futures Markets Move Faster Than Tankers

Oil prices react immediately to headlines. A reported ceasefire, a diplomatic framework, or a sign that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen can move crude futures within minutes. That is exactly what happened as traders began to discount a lower geopolitical risk premium.

But moving physical barrels is different.

The Strait of Hormuz is the most important energy chokepoint in the world, and months of disruption cannot be unwound with a press release. Ships that were delayed have to be rescheduled. Insurers have to reassess war-risk premiums. Crews and cargo owners need confidence that passage is secure. Ports must deal with congestion. Refiners that changed crude sourcing patterns may not immediately switch back.

That is all important because gasoline prices are tied not only to the price of crude oil, but to the availability of the right crude in the right place at the right time. If refiners are still competing for prompt cargoes, or if logistical constraints keep barrels from flowing smoothly, gasoline prices can remain elevated even as futures markets anticipate relief.

Low Inventories Create A Bullish Backdrop

The bigger issue is inventories. During a major supply disruption, the world does not simply consume less oil and wait patiently for the crisis to end. It draws down inventories. Commercial stocks fall. Strategic reserves may be tapped. Refiners and importers use whatever supply they can secure. 

For example, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was already drawn down significantly in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has now been further drawn down to its lowest level since 1983.

When the crisis eases, those barrels have to be replaced.

That creates what could be called an inventory trap. Reopening Hormuz is bearish for oil prices because it allows more supply to move. But the need to refill depleted inventories is bullish because it creates additional demand for barrels just as the market is trying to normalize.

In other words, the end of the disruption does not necessarily create an immediate glut. It may instead trigger a period of aggressive restocking.

This is especially important for countries that rely heavily on imports from the Persian Gulf. Many will want to rebuild strategic and commercial inventories before the next geopolitical flare-up. Companies may do the same. If buyers conclude that inventories are too low for comfort, they may bid for barrels even as traders are assuming the crisis premium should disappear.

That restocking demand can put a floor under oil prices.

Gasoline Does Not Track Crude One-For-One

Another reason gasoline may not quickly return to pre-war levels is that crude oil is only one component of the pump price. It is the biggest component, but not the only one.

Refining margins, distribution costs, taxes, seasonal fuel specifications, regional supply constraints, and local inventories are all factors. Gasoline prices often rise quickly when crude spikes, but the decline can be slower when crude falls, particularly when refiners are still dealing with tight supply or strong demand.

This is also the time of year when gasoline demand tends to be seasonally strong. The summer driving season adds pressure just as the market is trying to recover from a major geopolitical disruption. Even if crude continues to ease, gasoline inventories and refinery utilization will help determine how much relief drivers actually see.

That is why a lower Brent crude price does not automatically mean a quick return to $3 gasoline.

The Market May Be Pricing In A Best-Case Scenario

None of this means gasoline prices cannot keep falling. They can. If the Iran agreement holds, if Hormuz traffic normalizes faster than expected, if inventories rebuild smoothly, and if crude prices continue to decline, drivers should see further relief.

But that is a favorable scenario with many moving parts.

The risk is that markets have already priced in much of the good news. They are assuming that the diplomatic breakthrough translates quickly into normal shipping flows, lower crude prices, lower inflation pressure, and a calmer economic backdrop. That may be too much to assume before the details of the agreement are known and before tanker traffic has returned to normal levels.

There are several ways this could disappoint. The agreement could be delayed. Implementation could be uneven. Shipping insurance could remain expensive. Regional security concerns could persist. Countries could compete aggressively to refill depleted stocks. Any of those factors could slow the decline in oil and gasoline prices.

That does not mean another price spike is inevitable. It simply means the market may have moved from fear to relief faster than the physical system can justify.

The Big Picture

The developing Iran agreement is good news if it reduces the risk of a wider war and allows the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. It should help bring oil prices down from the extreme levels reached during the conflict. Consumers should welcome that.

But the oil market is not a light switch. Reopening a chokepoint does not instantly refill inventories. It does not immediately clear the tanker backlogs. It does not erase insurance risk. It does not automatically bring gasoline prices back to where they were before the first missiles flew.

The most likely outcome is not that gasoline prices stay at crisis levels forever. It is that the road back to pre-war prices is far slower than many consumers expect.

Gas prices are falling. That part is real. But the bullish backdrop from low inventories, restocking demand, and lingering logistical risk has not disappeared. Until those issues are resolved, the market may struggle to deliver the kind of quick, complete relief that drivers are hoping for.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 17:00

This match may not look like much on paper, but the situation sets us up for some serious drama and excitement.

Tehran Disputes Vance Claims On Nuclear Inspections & Assets For Agriculture Funding Amid Oil License Deal Summary

• Unfreezing Assets divergence in official rhetoric: "It is not true that Iran's blocked funds will be used to buy grain, and it is not mentioned in any understanding,"
• Nuclear Inspector divergence: Vance said Iran agreed to admit nuclear inspectors, but Iranian state media denied any such agreement was reached.
• Oil Relief: The U.S. issued a 60-day license allowing Iranian oil production and sales as part of the emerging negotiation framework.
• Talks Continue after top negotiators depart Switzerland: Both sides described the Switzerland talks as constructive, with technical negotiations set to continue over the next 60 days.
• Hormuz Commitment: The U.S. says Iran agreed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, easing market concerns, though major issues remain unresolved.

//--> //--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Yes 7% · No 94%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Difficulties on Lebanon Front Remain

"There will be no Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon except through negotiations in Washington, given that the mechanisms for implementing the ceasefire agreement will only be discussed in Washington," (Military Sources via AI Jadeed). It must be remembered that the Lebanese government and national army have no real military power to bring Iran-backed Hezbollah to heel. And the White House is also struggling to reign in its number one regional ally Israel.

Iran has on numerous occasions threatened to blow up the peace deal with the US if the Lebanon crisis is not solves. Some of the latest as relayed by Bloomberg:

• Israel refuses to hand over the Majdalzoun facility to the Lebanese army and insists on detonating it, amid reports that residents have been warned of the force and magnitude of the explosion, equivalent to a three-magnitude earthquake.
• Israel will not agree to withdraw' from certain strategic points, therefore the situation on the ground remains complex and the picture unclear.

More Divergence in Official Rhetoric from Switzerland

Vice President JD Vance earlier outlined a proposal under which any future release of frozen Iranian assets would remain subject to US oversight, allowing Washington to influence how the funds are spent. According to Vance, the concept was developed by Jared Kushner and would direct the money toward purchases of American agricultural goods.

The big assertion: "We wanted to make sure that we set up a process where if we ever unfreeze Iranian assets, we can ensure that money, that Iranian money, goes to help the people of Iran and not to fund terrorism," Vance said.

After first denying Vance's claims on nuclear inspectors being 'agreed' by Tehran to reenter the country--

now this...

"It is not true that Iran's blocked funds will be used to buy grain, and it is not mentioned in any understanding," Iran's Tasnim reports. This 60-day period is likely to be filled with more constant claims and counterclaims regarding what's been agreed to or not, and the crisis remains highly fluid and the 'brink of war' return is ever present, also given the sensitive Lebanon situation. 

US Vice President JD Vance has suggested that any future release of frozen Iranian assets could be structured to ensure the funds are used for civilian purposes, including the purchase of American agricultural goods “for the benefit of the Iranian people".

According to @TreyYingst of Fox News, Iran has committed to allowing inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) back into Iran to work to locate and dismantle key nuclear facilities. Per the report, Vice President JD Vance, alongside Envoy Jared Kushner, were… pic.twitter.com/6twiRPIhka

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 22, 2026 State Media Says Vance Claim on Nuclear Inspectors 'False'

Iranian state Fars is reporting that US Vice President Vance's earlier in the day announcement that Tehran agreed to the return of IAEA inspectors to the country is "false", citing a government source.

"There was no talk of the presence of inspectors in the country in the Swiss negotiations," Fars says. And so the divergent rhetoric continues to be a serious issue, even as this is only the very beginning of an expected long-haul 60-day nuclear negotiation process. 

Each side has been accusing the other of jumping the gun on premature statements and official leaks to the press. Also it could be that the return of inspectors is part of the framework for the future, but that Vance perhaps stated it as accomplished fact - and apparently Tehran doesn't yet see it that way. Al Jazeera reports on Iran's current official stance:

Iran will continue its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in line with existing procedures, foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told IRNA.

The interactions with the IAEA will take place in “accordance with the approvals of the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the decisions of the Supreme National Security Council”, IRNA quoted Baghaei as saying.

🚢Lots of oil leaving Strait of Hormuz (dark and visible)
🛢️Plus SoH bypass pipelines still going full throttle
⛽️US / Japan / Europe SPR barrels still flowing
🇮🇷 Iranian oil now legal for (at least) next 60 days
🇨🇳China remains on an oil buying strike

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 22, 2026 US Issues 60-Day License For Iranian Oil Sales As Tehran Agrees To Hormuz Access, Nuclear Inspections

As part of the MoU framework, and ongoing technical peace discussions in Switzerland (with US and Iranian teams still though - though Vance and Ghalibaf have at this point departed after their 18-hour first round achievement - Treasury has issued a temporary 60-day general license authorizing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil - it stated in a huge forward-momentum development. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on X:

Vice President JD Vance described an initiative for unfreezing Iranian assets that would grant the US approval over what Tehran can purchase using the money.

He said the plan, conceived by President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, would require the money be spent on…

— Giovanni Staunovo🛢 (@staunovo) June 22, 2026

Under President Trump and Vice President Vance, we continue to make the world safer and more prosperous. In line with the ongoing productive talks in Switzerland, Iran has committed to free and open transit in the Strait of Hormuz and to permit International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors into their country. As part of the framework, Treasury has issued a temporary 60-day general license authorizing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil.

Oil dropped to low of day on the significant latest development:

Some further details:

• US AUTHORIZES SOME SALES OF CRUDE OIL OF IRANIAN ORIGIN
• US LICENSE AUTHORIZES SALES THROUGH TO AUGUST 21, 2026
• US LICENSE AUTHORIZES IMPORTATION OF CRUDE OIL OF IRANIAN OIL

However, Vance has also sought to inject some caution on some of the premature reporting regarding releasing frozen Iranian funds, amid complaints from US and Israeli hawks at home:

JUST IN: Vice President Vance pushes back on “misreporting” about Iranian assets potentially being unfrozen and says that if any of the regime’s money is freed up, it will go to help the American economy and make U.S. farmers richer:

“We wanted to make sure that we set up a… pic.twitter.com/6CPNzY8uIS

— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 22, 2026 Huge Claim & Breaking Through: Vance Says Iran Agreed to Let Inspectors Back In

Axios is reporting Monday morning Iran has agreed to invite IAEA inspectors back to the country, according to fresh words of Vice President J.D. Vance, who focused all day prior and much into the overnight on forging a path forward toward permanent peace. The two sides are seeking to hammer out a long-term nuclear agreement, now amid the technical talks process, as delegation heads depart Switzerland - leaving diplomatic teams behind. The 60-day roadmap begins.

If indeed the UN nuclear inspectors are eventually let back into Iran, this would be a hugely significant step. This would be to verify compliance to the preliminary agreement, Vance further hails:

"Our hope is that we get to the final deal and a permanent settlement. But right now, I think we’ve made great progress and we should all celebrate that in terms of when the nuclear inspectors are going to start," the American Vice President told reporters.

via AP

He described that he phoned UN nuclear inspectors at 2am last night to update them on the developments, however, he said that no one picked up the call.

"As you can expect, not many people are answering their phone at two in the morning," said Vance. "I expect that will happen at the minimum this week, but we think even some of those conversations with the inspectors and with the IAEA could happen as soon as today."

Both warring sides appear to finally be in the same page in terms of issuing 'positive' and 'encouraging' assessments earlier. There were reports of last-minute disagreements, threats, and warnings that the process could collapse near the conclusion of yesterday's formal round one of talks.

"So they didn’t walk out, and their technical team is still here in Burgenstock working with our technical team," Vance explained.

"What we told the Iranians yesterday is, 'When you guys exchange in what us millennials might call trash talk, you can't expect the president of the United States not to respond and not to correct the record'."

Vance conceded that in the end there was a "a little bit of threatening" and "whining but at the end of the day, the talks continued and we made great progress."

He further described that a mechanism had been established to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, while noting that significant work remained and that technical negotiations would continue. Also, importantly he said that a "very good foundation" was laid for a successful final agreement with Iran.

JD Vance:

I can't stay here for the next 60 days. I will go back to the U.S.

The technical teams will be working. pic.twitter.com/s9PSTRvMSR

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 22, 2026

The Iranian delegation, led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, also left the venue in Switzerland today - after approximately 18 hours of talks and consultations.

Meanwhile a fresh note from Goldman Sachs comments:

The Pakistan-Qatar communiqué, alongside comments from the Iranian Foreign Minister highlighting progress in negotiations, suggests we are heading into a prolonged period of talks rather than a near-term resolution. My base case remains that Iran will continue to use the threat of disruption around Hormuz as negotiating leverage rather than pursuing a definitive resolution. The most striking feature of the oil market today is the sheer size of speculative short positioning. There is a substantial amount of capital betting on lower prices, which locally makes further downside more challenging. That is before considering the more fundamental point that it is not obviously in Iran’s interest to allow oil prices to fall too far while negotiations remain ongoing.

China Expresses Support

China too has expressed hope Iran and the US will maintain the momentum and ultimately work towards positive progress, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said Monday from Beijing. He praised the mediation efforts by Pakistan, Qatar and other parties when asked about the Iran-US talks in Switzerland, the Xinhua news agency reported. "China supports Pakistan and Qatar and all relevant parties in their mediation efforts," Guo said.

New Iran MFA statement:

However, while an uneasy calm has taken over Lebanon, with analyst Mohanad Hage Ali of the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut stressing: "The conflict now in Lebanon is waiting for another spark,” said Mohanad Hage Ali from the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut."

"It just became a buffer zone, a kind of a punching bag in which anyone who wants to score can use it, whether to get at the US-Iran negotiations – which Israel specifically is not very happy about – or from the Iranian side, where a faction unhappy with how negotiations are going can sabotage them through the Lebanon front," he explained.

Weekend Review

via Newsquawk

• US and Iran talks opened in Switzerland on Sunday after US VP Vance arrived in Switzerland and the Iranian delegation led by chief negotiator Ghalibaf, which included Foreign Minister Araghchi, arrived on Saturday, while Pakistan’s Premier Sharif and military chief Munir travelled to Switzerland to join the US-Iran talks.
• Iran's delegation reportedly left the negotiation site in protest against statements by US President Trump, while Fars also reported that Iran halted talks with the US after Trump threatened strikes over Hezbollah’s actions in Lebanon. Iran said Trump’s threat is a blatant violation of the MoU and halted talks in Switzerland, while it is reviewing a response to Trump’s threats. However, sources cited by Al Hadath later stated that the Iranian delegation had not left the negotiation headquarters at the Burgenstock resort and the Iranian delegation head discussed a joint statement draft with mediators.
• US President Trump threatened to resume bombing and take over the Strait of Hormuz if a deal is not reached, while Trump said the US may take tolls if it has to and that he has a 60-day option, in which he can do whatever after it. Trump stated he spoke with Iranian officials and used expletive language in the call with Iranian officials on Hormuz, as well as threatened that they won’t have a country if Hormuz is closed, according to Fox.
• US President Trump posted that Iran must immediately stop their proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble, or else the US would hit Iran very hard again, “just like we did last week, only harder!!!” Trump separately commented that there will be no tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, unless they are imposed by the US.
• UKMTO reported an incident in which a cargo vessel was approached by a craft with six armed persons onboard 92 nautical miles southwest of Yemen’s Mukalla in the Gulf of Aden.
• Israeli army chief said the Lebanon ceasefire is fragile and forces remain ready for combat.
• Israeli military convoy reportedly entered southern Syria’s Quneitra region, near the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.

Negotiation Process:

• Qatar and Pakistan issue joint statement on conclusion of US-Iran talks in Switzerland, while Qatar said first session of the US-Iran high level talks has concluded and that talks were conducted in a positive, constructive atmosphere. said:. Technical talks are to continue for remainder of the week. US and Iran agreed to de-confliction cell over Lebanon. Encouraging progress has been made, including creation of a mechanism for further technical talks. Parties agree to establish high-level committee to provide political oversight on mediation. High-level committee agrees on roadmap to reach final deal within 60 days.
• "The negotiations of the main Iranian delegation in Switzerland have ended, however, experts are still in Switzerland and are following up on the implementation of the memorandum of understanding", Tasnim reported citing sources.
• Iranian negotiating team member said executive procedures about the release of Iranian frozen funds have taken place with the Qatari delegation and that a draft has been finalised regarding waivers of Iranian oil sanctions, which will be issued soon, although negotiations about other subjects will not take place if the war does not end in Lebanon.
• "No negotiations have taken place on the nuclear file so far", Tasnim reported citing a source.
• US diplomat said talks included robust discussions on a nuclear deal and enforcing the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, while talks also involved clarifying the messaging on the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, a US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, and that mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open.
• Pakistani Army Chief said negotiating parties reached success stage, according to Al Arabiya.
• US official involved in the negotiations told Al Jazeera that they held in-depth discussions on all elements of the nuclear agreement, adds mechanisms have been worked on to prevent escalation and ensure the strait remains fully open.
• Sources cited by Al Arabiya said an anticipated statement will be issued by the Iranian and American negotiators and the mediators.
• Sources cited by Al Hadath stated that the Iranian delegation has not left the negotiation headquarters at the Bürgenstock resort and Iranian delegation head discusses joint statement draft with mediators. Tasnim reported Iranian delegation refused to return to negotiations but message exchanges continue through intermediaries.
• Iranian Commentary:
• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi posted Pakistani and Qatari mediation delivered major progress to end Lebanon War, oil and petrochem exports are waived, blockade lifted, frozen assets released, and major reconstruction & development plan launched for Iran.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry said the technical team is to continue work, but negotiation delegation work has concluded, adds significant progress achieved in quadrilateral talks in Switzerland. Spokesman said groundwork for starting negotiations for the final agreement was discussed.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said Iran is working on safe passage mechanism for Hormuz and that Iran reported progress on oil sales and asset unfreezing, adds the war in all fronts, including Lebanon, must end.
• Iranian Supreme Leader adviser Rezaei said the US is responsible for Israel's actions in Lebanon and Iran will hold the US accountable in the event of a threat against Iran.
• Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi to lead the technical team in Switzerland, Sky News Arabia reported.
• Iran resumed oil loading from Kharg Island after about a six-week halt, following the lifting of the US blockade of its ports.
• Lebanon/Israel:
• Al Jadeed News cites Haaretz source stating the Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the Blue Line in Lebanon.
• Israeli army will be forced to partially withdraw from the yellow line (buffer zone), Al Jazeera reported, citing Israel's Haaretz sources.
• Israeli Foreign Minister Saar told his New Zealand counterpart, "Israel will respect the ceasefire in Lebanon as long as it won’t be breached by Hezbollah.".
• Israeli political and security cabinet will convene on Thursday amid US-Iran talks, N12 reported.
• Israeli officials are dismissing reported of an agreement to withdraw from certain points in southern Lebanon, amid a lack of US pressure to do, Maariv's Barsky reported. Officials add, "because in Washington they understand the Israeli position: no partial withdrawal, no point-specific withdrawal, and no diplomatic 'gesture'.". And, "as long as the Hezbollah threat persists, there is no change in the deployment of forces and no intention to relinquish the security positions in southern Lebanon.".
• Lebanese presidency discussed the issue of consolidating the ceasefire in Lebanon, in a call with Qatari PM and US's Vance.
• Other:
• Two South Korean vessels were said to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after US and Iran signed a ceasefire MoU.
• Three India-linked supertankers re-emerged in the Gulf of Oman, which suggests an increase in traffic through the waterway.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 16:55

Judge Quashes "Blatantly Unlawful" DOJ Subpoenas Targeting Walz And Ellison In ICE-Obstruction Case

A federal judge has quashed six DOJ grand jury subpoenas issued to Minnesota officials, including Gov. Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, St. Paul Mayor Kaohly Her and officials in Ramsey and Hennepin counties.

US District Judge Patrick J. Schlitz ruled that the subpoenas amounted to harassment, and said that the Justice Department inquiry into whether Minnesota officials obstructed or impeded law enforcement is illegitimate. 

"Initiating a criminal investigation in order to harass political opponents or to coerce them into taking official action, particularly official action that the federal government cannot directly require those political opponents to take, is a blatantly unlawful and unethical use [of] the grand-jury process," Schlitz wrote in his ruling. 

Tensions between the Trump administration and Minnesota's Democratic leadership came to a boiling point in January amid clashes between federal immigration enforcement officers and protesters in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Area, which included the fatal shootings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, social justice warriors who paid the ultimate price.

The DOJ told the Epoch Times in an email that "The Department takes the unlawful obstruction of federal law enforcement operations extremely seriously and will continue to act in full compliance with the law to investigate these matters."

Walz hit back in a statement, saying "The U.S. Justice Department is pursuing criminal investigations into the President’s political opponents.

"This case was just one example of that, but we are seeing daily reminders of this administration’s lawlessness—in Minnesota and around the country. We all must continue to seek justice and uphold the law."

Looks like we'll never get to the bottom of this...

🚨REPORT: Minnesota anti-ICE Signal group leader has been identified as Amanda Koehler, a ‘protest’ organizer & campaign strategist for Tim Walz. https://t.co/CeBLKfHJfa

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) January 24, 2026 Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 16:40

Casa Amor is finally here, but one bombshell might not stay in the villa for long.

After a blockbuster initial public offering earlier this month, SpaceX on Monday revealed in a regulatory filing that it plans to sell investment-grade bonds. The bond offering would aim to raise about $20 billion, according to reports, and could help bankroll costly AI development and longer term goals like building data centers in space. 

The comedian pleaded not guilty to 12 felony counts related to his tax filings as he appeared in court for the first time on Monday.

Sporting goods store Modell's is making a comeback -- kind of -- as its former owner said he'll launch a new online store with plans to open brick-and-mortar stores by the end of the decade.

The "RHONY" legend shared some choice picks from the celeb-loved jewelry line.

The "RHONY" legend shared some choice picks from the celeb-loved jewelry line.

Slouching Toward Peace With Washington In Good-Cop/Bad-Cop Mode

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

". . .They are running the Accords logic to its conclusion: every adversary becomes a counterparty, every conflict becomes a deal, every closed economy becomes an investable market."

- Patrick Wood

That squawking you hear is Iran getting dragged kicking and screaming out of its jihad delirium into something that might look like reality-based relations with the rest of the world. They have to loudly declare that it’s not happening, even as it’s happening, to gaslight their own home folks, who might be getting a little sick of economic free-fall — and probably sick of the IRGC regime itself. And, of course, they know that the Lefty-left half of the USA is rooting for this whole business to fail so they can get their mitts back on the levers of power to avoid prison.

Things are at a pretty pass, all righty. The sticking point of the moment is Lebanon. Everybody is twanging on Israel to quit fighting Hezbollah. Okay, but does Hezbollah not have some obligation to quit its provocations? And is Iran, which controls Hezbollah, not responsibile to make Hezbollah stop?

Notice, you don’t hear any of the kibitzers calling for that. That’s because getting Hezbollah to poke Israel in the eye with a sharp stick is Iran’s favored device for dragging out negotiations which, they apparently hope, will put POTUS in fear of the looming midterm election. But time is running out on their playing for time. What they’re actually playing is pretend — pretending to be living large and in-charge. They’ve got nothing else, really. They’ve driven their country into a ditch.

The US is in a straight-up good-cop / bad-cop mode. VP Vance, on-the-ground in Switzerland, presents the very picture of a smooth, cool, rational figure where it counts: face-to-face with Iranian leaders, after all these years. He calmly tells the world news media that “encouraging progress” has been made the first day toward a ceasefire in poor, sore-beset Lebanon. As of Monday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi concurred on “X.”

Meanwhile, President Trump was going mad-dog on social media. Of his relations with irksome Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu, POTUS said, “It’s good, but we have to keep him a little bit sane.” He added, “Iran must stop their highly-paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again. . . bomb the shit out of them.” He advised the Iranian negotiators that they “won’t even make if back” to their country if they keep playing games, and declared that the US will take over the Strait of Hormuz, if necessary. A bit harsh, admittedly. Any trouble parsing it out?

Ghastly as all that might sound, the American negotiating position offers as much carrot as stick. Patrick Wood laid it out nicely in this Substack post. It’s about rearranging the economic “architecture” of the region and, by extension, the rest of the world, which requires a stable, reliable, not-insane Iran and a peaceful Persian Gulf to sustain advanced civilization. The Abraham Accords are designed to induce all the players in the Middle East to act as sovereign nations conscious of, and seeking, their economic best interests — not blocs acting-out large-scale gang warfare based on age-old revenge scenarios. We are simply asking Iran to accept re-integration into real world of transactional nations by joining in the Abraham Accords.

It’s to no one’s benefit for Iran to become a failed state, and that’s what Iran’s leadership is flirting with as they bluster and thwart the peace process. Don’t forget, their clock is ticking, too, maybe even louder than America’s midterm election clock. There’s evidence that the over-full storage capacity for their oil has already caused damage to their oil wells — because shutting down wells degrades the geology of the underlying oil-bearing rock. Inflation has gone wild inside the country, estimated around 70-percent. Iran’s aquifers have lost 90-percent of their water volume as a years-long draught drags on. Iran has to import around 30-percent of its food. Do you suppose these conditions might make everyday life pretty uncomfortable for the Iranian people?

As of Monday morning, VP Vance reported that talks have moved on to the nuclear material question: Iran agreed to offer access to nuclear inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. watchdog. They likewise agreed to establish “coordinating mechanisms” aimed at clearing remaining mines from the Strait of Hormuz and solidifying the ceasefire in Lebanon. That looks like actual progress. This was never going to be easy. Expect more bumps on the road. Iran was so far-gone and for such a long time. Show a little patience.

Also, meanwhile, some real fabulous news as Keir Starmer has opted to vacate 10 Downing Street. Good career move! He’s nearly wrecked what’s left of his country. Nobody knows yet who the Labour Party might shove in to replace him, but it’s sure to be another short-timer because the party itself is burnt toast, based on its overwhelming loss in recent local council elections.

Starmer was in office for just over two years. His predecessor Rishi Sunak also lasted less than two years and, before him, PM Liz Truss (remember her?) was gone after 50 days. Procedural rigmarole might drag out the process to replace Starmer until September, when Parliament returns from its summer recess. “Old Blighty,” as the natives sometimes call the UK, is an exceedingly troubled place. With Starmer lingering in office as the lamest of lame ducks, it’s going to be a long summer, and possibly a hot one.

Equally worrisome, at this fraught moment, are the EU’s efforts to start World War Three with Russia. The EU was behind the massive drone attacks against Moscow last week. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, announced plans for “massive group strikes” on Ukrainian targets on a regular basis. Getting spicey over there. All of this is a smokescreen to conceal the political death throes of virtually all the EU member-nation’s leaders — the feckless Merz in Germany, the wobbling Macron in France, the commie PM Pedro Sánchez in Spain, and Giorgia Meloni in Italy, who double-crossed her voters on ending illegal immigration.

Europe’s got nothing. . . but trouble ahead.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/22/2026 - 16:20

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