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Has Iranian Crude Become Irrelevant To Global Oil Supply?

Zero Rss
1 month 3 weeks ago
Has Iranian Crude Become Irrelevant To Global Oil Supply?

Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova Of OilPrice.com

The reinstated U.S. blockade on Iranian oil exports is effectively preventing Tehran from exporting oil, making Iran’s oil volumes irrelevant for global oil market balances, Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC on Thursday.

The U.S. brought back the blockade in the Gulf of Oman aimed at preventing Iran from exporting its oil after the ‘deal to make a deal’ collapsed in July and hostilities in the Middle East returned.

The blockade, which the U.S. had lifted for about three weeks while negotiations were being held in June and early July, is now back and effectively blockading Iran’s oil exports.

“Kharg Island is not exporting anymore,” McNally told CNBC, referring to Iran’s key oil export terminal that handles more than 90% of all shipments.

“Iran has stopped being a factor for the oil market in terms of its exports because of the blockade,” McNally said.

Iran may have been removed from the real barrels count, but the crude oil futures market is underpricing geopolitical risk, the energy expert told CNBC.

“The refined products are telling the story” of how crude futures may be underpricing the tightness in the global oil market, according to McNally.

In addition, “the market has become a little less optimistic about near-term and sustainable reopening of Hormuz,” he said, adding that the longer the disruption goes on, “the risk is that crude will follow products higher.”

Brent Crude prices topped $91 per barrel this week amid heightened security concerns for shipping in the Middle East and fading hopes that the U.S. and Iran could return to negotiations.

The refined product market, however, is already flashing severe tightness, with the diesel crack spread hitting record highs in both the United States and Europe this week.

The diesel crack spread in the United States hit triple digits this week, for the first time ever. The premium over crude prices jumped to as high as $102 per barrel on Monday, before easing slightly to about $100 a barrel on Tuesday.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 14:00
Tyler Durden

"Significant" Tornado Threat Incoming For DC To Baltimore To Philadelphia

Zero Rss
1 month 3 weeks ago
"Significant" Tornado Threat Incoming For DC To Baltimore To Philadelphia

Senior meteorologist Matthew Cappucci of private weather forecaster MyRadarWX is monitoring the potential for isolated tornadoes along the Interstate 95 corridor, from areas north of Washington, D.C., through Baltimore and Wilmington, Delaware, and into the Philadelphia metro area.

Tornadoes are not unheard of in the Mid-Atlantic, but a potential setup later this afternoon capable of producing multiple tornadoes across a large swath of Maryland, Delaware, and southeastern Pennsylvania would be unusual.

"Mid-Atlantic gang – can't rule out an isolated tornado this afternoon embedded within/ahead of a developing squall line. There's just enough low-level easterly winds to bolster spin. Brief tornado possible IF southward-sagging front doesn't undercut storms too quickly," Cappucci wrote on X earlier this morning. 

Mid-Atlantic gang – can't rule out an isolated tornado this afternoon embedded within/ahead of a developing squall line.

There's just enough low-level easterly winds to bolster spin. Brief tornado possible IF southward-sagging front doesn't undercut storms too quickly. pic.twitter.com/9grxM09gXd

— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) August 20, 2026

MyRadarWX posted for the Mid-Atlantic region: 

We're closely monitoring the risk of an isolated tornado or two in the Mid-Atlantic, including along/east of I-95. While a squall line is likely to form, concern is growing that a couple supercell structure may evolve ahead of the line and produce a tornado or two. Subtle influences, like the bay breeze, may provide an additional source of low-level spin. The main wildcard is how quickly a southward-advancing cold front moves. Too quick, and it could undercut storms/sweep them into a non-tornadic line. A bit slower, however, and easterly surface winds ahead of it could bolster low-level spin, increasing tornado risk.

We're closely monitoring the risk of an isolated tornado or two in the Mid-Atlantic, including along/east of I-95.

While a squall line is likely to form, concern is growing that a couple supercell structure may evolve ahead of the line and produce a tornado or two.

Subtle… pic.twitter.com/lQPRr2pQxt

— MyRadar Weather (@MyRadarWX) August 20, 2026

MyRadarWX's timing of the incoming storm for the region, with a possible "isolated EF2+ 'significant' tornado," is for Thursday afternoon. 

D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and Dover – the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our tornado risk today, Thursday afternoon, August 20. While only a couple tornadoes are possible, the atmosphere could support an isolated EF2+ "significant" tornado. That would be predicated on the formation of a supercell or two (rotating thunderstorms) ahead of an eventual squall line. The greatest chance is in northeastern Maryland, southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey or the northern Delmarva. Low probability, but high impact if it happens.

D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and Dover – the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our tornado risk today, Thursday afternoon, August 20. While only a couple tornadoes are possible, the atmosphere could support an isolated EF2+ "significant" tornado.

That would be predicated on… pic.twitter.com/Cm591DsvDu

— MyRadar Weather (@MyRadarWX) August 20, 2026

The National Weather Service tornado scale states that an EF2 tornado can tear roofs off homes, destroy mobile homes, snap large trees, and turn debris into dangerous projectiles. MyRadarWX's risk forecast is not an official warning from the National Weather Service.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 13:40
Tyler Durden

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