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Lawmakers can't reduce union-worker pay without collective bargaining; letting the council add pay would badly undermine a core mayoral authority.

The first lady has spent most of the summer at her husband's golf club in Bedminster, NJ.

"Get Long And Buckle Up": Jeff Currie Says Commodity Bull Market Entering Next Leg

The breadth of the commodity advance is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Quantix Commodity Index

Diesel crack spreads have surged above $100, copper is trading above $14,000 a ton in London, gold and silver are accelerating amid US Treasury market intervention, and the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index is surging higher. At the same time, the dollar weakened sharply following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's intervention this week, providing an additional tailwind to the commodity complex.

According to veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie, the convergence of tight physical markets, currency debasement, and policy intervention represents the hallmark of a structural commodity bull cycle.

Currie, the former Goldman Sachs commodities chief and now co-chair of Abaxx Markets, wrote in a ten-post thread on X that commodities are the clear winners as physical bottlenecks materialize around the world and Treasury market interventions add to those tailwinds.

Currie began the thread:

Wake up, folks. Commodities are telling you something, and yesterday the Treasury confirmed it.

Scarcity in the physical world. Repression in the financial one. Scarcity pushes prices up. Repression holds yields down. The gap between them is the debasement.

Commodities are the only asset class that wins on both sides. The structural case for commodities has been turbo charged.

Underinvestment, deglobalization and electrification all pushing markets like diesel cracks and copper to new highs.

Meanwhile the chokepoints are increasing, from Hormuz to the Red Sea, the Rhine, the Panama Canal, the Black Sea grain corridor and Russian refining capacity. It is becoming increasingly apparent that not a single one of those is reachable by anything in Washington’s toolkit whether it be caused by war or weather.

The illusion of abundance is likely behind us. I said as much on CNBC this Monday, and I got long gold, silver and agriculture last week.

Wake up, folks. Commodities are telling you something, and yesterday the Treasury confirmed it.

Scarcity in the physical world. Repression in the financial one.

Scarcity pushes prices up. Repression holds yields down. The gap between them is the debasement.

Commodities are the…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

Here's a summary of Currie's bull thesis for commodities:

1. Bond market intervention: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled long-bond buybacks one day after the 30-year yield hit 5.32%, its highest level since 2007, and only two weeks after the quarterly schedule was released. Currie says this is the last lever after a sequence of interventions: SPR draws that reduced inventories below 300 million barrels, dollar backstops for foreign holders in Japan and the Gulf, and FX intervention involving the euro and yen for the first time since 1998. The market reaction was immediate: Gold rose 4% to $4,510, silver gained 5%, and the Quantix Commodity Index reached an all-time high.

I don’t care what you want to call it. A sovereign that has to buy its own bonds to set the price has already conceded that the market won't.

Yesterday Scott Bessent doubled long-bond buybacks, two weeks after publishing the quarterly schedule and one day after the 30-year hit…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

2. Stop watching Brent and WTI: The economy runs on gasoline and diesel. That consumption-weighted basket is around $165 versus $85 WTI. Inflation breakevens and the bond market are reading the wrong screen. Watch the next three CPI prints.

Stop looking at crude. Nobody consumes it but refineries.

The economy runs on gasoline and diesel, and that consumption weighted basket costs $165 against $85 WTI.

Breakevens are being priced off the one barrel nobody consumes. The bond market is reading inflation off the wrong…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

Related:

• Jeff Currie: Forget $91 Brent, The Real Crisis Is $170 Diesel

3. It's all about the crack spread: Diesel cracks settled above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, reaching $102.20. That is four to six times the normal range, with records set in five of the last six sessions. The cause is a refining shortage, with global runs down around 5 million barrels per day because of Ukrainian strikes on Russian plants, Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern facilities, and chronic underinvestment. Crude can drift while refined products print records.

The diesel crack is the tell.

It settled above $100 a barrel this week for the first time in history, reaching $102.20. That is four to six times its normal range, with records hit in five of the last six sessions.

What lies behind it? A refining shortage. Global runs are down…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

4. Treasury supply problem: Foreign holdings fell in June, led by Japan, China, and the UK. The July deficit reached $432 billion, interest costs hit $1.1 trillion, and debt is approaching $40 trillion, while hyperscaler AI-capex issuance is competing for the same pool of savings. The marginal buyer is waiting for higher yields. Yesterday's buyback represents a managed, failing auction.

The Treasury market has a problem: it cannot comfortably clear its own supply. And scarcity only exacerbates the problem.

Foreign holdings fell in June, led by Japan, China and the UK. Against that, you can add a July deficit of $432 billion, interest costs that have surged to…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

5. Broken feedback loop: Normally, a commodity spike forces yields higher, followed by demand destruction and self-correction. Repression has cut the brake line. Scarcity feeds inflation, repression prevents the response, and the absence of a response amplifies the scarcity bid.

Repression cuts the brake line.

Normally when such a situation occurs, the bond market disciplines a commodity spike. We are familiar with the cycle: yields rise, demand slows, the spike self-corrects.

But not this time.

The cycle has broken down: scarcity feeds inflation,…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

6. Diesel underpins everything: "Every other commodity is dirt plus diesel." Containers, tractors, locomotives, mine trucks, and fertilizer all depend on diesel. The energy input sets the floor for metals, grains, and other commodities. This explains why the QCI can reach an all-time high while crude remains $30 below its peak. Corn is already up 10% on the week. Pass-through into trucking, food, and producer prices is just beginning.

Every other commodity is dirt plus diesel.

Diesel is the cost base of everything. Every container, every tractor, every locomotive, every
mine truck - you get the idea.

The energy input sets the price floor for metals, grains and fertiliser, which is how QCI prints an all-time…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

7. Refining problem: There are too many crude barrels and not enough refining capacity. The possible resolution paths include demand destruction through high product prices, crude rebalancing as the current glut remains partly MoU-related, or a recovery in refining activity. If runs recover and refiners bid for the missing 5 million barrels per day of feedstock, the shortage will migrate upstream, causing crude to rally as cracks compress. The net cost to consumers stays high either way. There is no SPR for diesel or gasoline. Bears have been promising supply for more than two years, while the petroleum total-return index has doubled and retail prices remain near all-time highs.

There is no clean bearish resolution.

The market is telling you there are too many barrels of crude and not enough refining capacity.

Either demand will be destroyed through higher product prices, or crude will rebalance (right now we are likely processing a momentary glut from…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

8/9. Widening chokepoints and El Niño: Hormuz has been constrained for six months, Russian refining remains under sustained Ukrainian attack, the Red Sea still requires a detour, the Rhine is at a record low amid heat waves, and the Panama Canal's allowable draft has fallen to 47.5 feet. In the Black Sea, all three Novorossiysk terminals are shut, leaving 97% of Azov-Black Sea export capacity offline during peak season. Simultaneously, the USDA cut its US corn-yield estimate to 180.7 bushels per acre and reduced ending stocks by 15%. Food has joined fuel. A record El Niño probability, including NOAA's 81% chance of a very strong event by year-end, adds further stress through drier conditions in Panama, weaker Asian monsoons, and pressure on Brazil's planting window. The system has no redundancy left.

Whether it is weather or war, the issues are widening and deepening. Hormuz has been constrained for six months and counting. Russian refining is regularly under fire from Ukrainian strikes and there’s no sign of that slowing down. The Red Sea is still a detour.

Record European…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

10. Conclusion: Scarcity is repricing the numerator, while repression is debasing the denominator. Own what benefits from both: product markets, grains, and freight for the scarcity leg, and gold for the debasement leg. Gold is at $4,510 versus the earlier January high of $5,600 referenced above. The bond market will spend the next six months discovering what product markets already know. Expect more volatility and higher highs across more markets.

Scarcity is repricing the numerator; repression is debasing the denominator. Own what benefits from both.

The commodity complex carries the scarcity leg - products, grains, freight. Gold carries the debasement leg: $4,510 today against a January record of $5,600, and every…

— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) August 20, 2026

Currie concluded by saying, "Get long and buckle up: the next leg of the ride will see more vol with higher highs across more markets."

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 18:00

Friends told our Style Senior Editor she was glowing during her pregnancy, but it was actually thanks to this clean beauty buy.

Friends told our Style Senior Editor she was glowing during her pregnancy, but it was actually thanks to this clean beauty buy.

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US Government Warns: Hackers Attacking Vulnerable Water Systems With AI Help

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Several U.S. government agencies have said that cyber actors are attempting to hack into devices made by industrial systems company Siemens that are used to monitor water and other critical infrastructure systems.

In an advisory published on Wednesday, the FBI, National Security Agency (NSA), Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), and other U.S. agencies informed “owners and operators of industrial control systems” that there is an “active cyber threat to Siemens S7 Series PLCs,” or programmable logic controllers—an industrial automation system.

Unnamed “threat actors are conducting reconnaissance and capability development against U.S.-based Siemens PLC installations using AI-generated exploitation scripts disguised as legitimate monitoring tools,” the advisory said.

It added that the hackers use services to find PLCs connected to the internet that run what the agencies said is “outdated software” or are “otherwise poorly protected.”

“The U.S. critical infrastructure sectors most targeted by this threat activity include Critical Manufacturing, Energy, Water and Wastewater, Chemical, Food and Agriculture, and Commercial Facilities,” the advisory reads.

“This is not a theoretical risk—it is an active threat.”

The agencies further warned that “exploitation of poorly protected PLCs could lead to disruption of critical industrial processes, safety incidents, downtime or equipment damage, compromise of sensitive data, compliance violations, and cascading impacts across interconnected systems.”

Organizations using Siemens systems are encouraged to apply relevant security updates, isolate devices and systems from the internet where possible, implement strong security protocols, and strengthen monitoring for potential malicious activity, according to the advisory.

“These mitigations are particularly important for owners and operators who work with third-party service providers or system integrators who may have remote access to PLCs, as the asset owners may not realize that their systems are exposed and at risk,” they added.

The advisory did not provide the name of a specific group, country, or actor that may be involved in attempting to hack the Siemens systems. Nor did it name companies that may have been targeted by the threat actors.

The warning ‌comes amid U.S. cyber incidents ⁠targeting local water systems in several states in recent weeks. The FBI said earlier this month that from July 27 to July 30, water and wastewater utility companies in seven states reported security-related incidents.

In July, CISA and other agencies said Iran-linked hackers have targeted PLCs made by Rockwell Automation, Schneider Electric, Siemens, and potentially others.

A cybersecurity risk organization, Encrygma, said on Wednesday that a group linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, known as the CyberAv3ngers, has attacked water systems in the United States and displayed political messaging. CISA linked the group to cyberattacks on PLCs in late 2024.

Since February, the United States and Iran have traded strikes as the Trump administration has demanded that Tehran give up its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway that allows for the transportation of significant amounts of the world’s traded oil.

Other agencies that were involved in the release of Wednesday’s advisory included the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency.

The NSA, FBI, CISA, and other U.S. agencies have long said that the Chinese regime, Iran, North Korea, and Russia have engaged in malicious cyber activity against U.S. infrastructure networks, collecting intelligence and engaging in cyber espionage.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 17:40

Bichette is playing like himself over the past three months and is transitioning nicely to 3B.

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NATO F-16s Blow Up Sea Drone That Threatened Romania's Largest Deep Gas Platform

A wild and highly dangerous intercept incident happened in the Black Sea on Thursday. A pair of Romanian F-16s were dispatched to track and intercept a sea drone in the vicinity the huge Neptun Deep gas platform.

The platform sits 80 miles east of the Romanian Black Sea city of Constanta and is the country's largest natural gas project and its first deep offshore project, with hundreds of people working at the site at any given time.

Omv Petrom

The Wall Street Journal reports that "Romania said it deployed two F-16 jet fighters to destroy a Russia-launched explosive marine drone that threatened hundreds of lives near one of its gas platforms."

Authorities said the sea drone was observed coming to within just a few hundred meters away from the platform, and thus the decision was made that it must be neutralized.

Citing Romanian Defense Minister Radu Miruta, WSJ writes further, "The decision was taken, in consultation with NATO, to destroy the drone in order to protect the lives of the several hundred people who were working on the platform and to secure the infrastructure, Miruta said in a Facebook post."

President Nicușor Dan blamed Russia, after Ukraine said the drone wasn't theirs, and formally accused Moscow of endangering "critical infrastructure" and people "working at the platform."

"I strongly condemn the intensification of these types of irresponsible incidents on the part of the Russian Federation. We remain vigilant alongside NATO allies to defend ourselves and repel such challenges," he wrote on X.

The Kremlin hasn't immediately responded, and is unlikely to own up to it. However, it has recently vowed to punish Ukraine and its Western backers for the ramped-up long-range drone campaign which has unleashed havoc on its own oil refining and energy infrastructure. Moscow says that Western allies have been helping Ukrainian forces with targeting intelligence.

A Romanian F-16 destroyed a naval drone inside Romania's Black Sea EEZ on Thursday as it approached the Neptun Alpha gas platform, 80 nautical miles east of Constanța. pic.twitter.com/W9f2NVaxGX

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) August 20, 2026

There have been widely reported petrol shortages across Russia of late, even impacting the capital and surrounding regions, due to the non-stop drone waves.

European Commission President Von der Leyen commented on the new Black Sea incident in support of Romania and NATO. "An escalating campaign of threats is underway, unsettling our citizens and seeking to divide our Union," she wrote on X.

"With the European Drone Defence Initiative and the Eastern Flank Watch, we are scaling up production in Europe ... So we can respond to emerging threats with speed, unity and resolve," she added.

Video: Defense Minister Radu Miruta... showing the moment that the unidentified sea drone was obliterated...

🚨 BREAKING: A Romanian F-16 fired on an explosive-laden Russian sea drone near the Neptun Deep gas field in the Black Sea.

Top officials called it part of a growing Russian threat against the site, set to make Romania the EU's top gas producer by 2027.

Video: Defense Minister… pic.twitter.com/WxzWU5vGv7

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) August 20, 2026

Aerial incidents involving Russian projectiles along the EU and NATO's 'eastern flank' have become somewhat of a regular occurrence; however, the spectacle of a NATO member's jets being scrambled to track and blow up a sea drone off coastal waters is something new. It was perhaps a bright flashing 'warning' from Russian forces, showing that they can harm vital EU energy infrastructure in return if they want to.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2026 - 17:21

Morgan Stanley is the latest financial giant moving jobs from New York, snubbing Georgia to open a sprawling new campus in Texas.

The hope was that the rookie would emerge as a key piece of LA's offensive line this season and beyond.