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Trump's Economic Shield Cracks As Gas Prices And Iran Standoff Threaten Midterm Fortunes
As we continue to 'enjoy' expensive gas across the country thanks to a broken campaign promise not to start new wars, President Donald Trump enters the 2026 midterm campaign with an unfamiliar vulnerability: voters are feeling the pain.
High gasoline prices, fueled by the prolonged U.S. military confrontation with Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, have turned inflation into a daily political problem for the White House. Trump's approval ratings have fallen near the lowest point of either of his presidential terms, with especially sharp declines in approval over the economy - long one of his strongest political defenses. Public frustration over affordability, a concern that helped return him to the White House, has not eased.
Source: RealClearPoliticsThe White House, meanwhile, is touting tax refunds delivered under last year's legislation, and the administration's promise of abundant domestic energy. But those messages have been overshadowed by the reality on Main St.
"I think the president was being truthful when he said he really didn't care about the midterms," said Mick Mulvaney, former acting White House chief of staff. "But House and Senate Republicans do care. And if gas is still north of $4 by Labor Day, everybody in town knows that means trouble for the incumbent party. Big trouble."
Even if the Iran war ended tomorrow, some economists think that the damage already done to oil infrastructure - and the risks of renewed fighting, will keep upward pressure on prices.
"We think that the drag on the economy due to the war will weigh heavily on household consumption among middle-class, working-class and the working poor ahead of the November congressional election," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.
Source: Bloomberg economist surveys. Note: Inflation = PCE price index.
Consumer sentiment has weakened across party lines, including among Republicans and independents. Inflation reached 3.8% in April, while grocery prices posted their largest increase in nearly four years. Inflation-adjusted hourly earnings declined for the first time in three years, and the personal savings rate fell to a multi-year low.
As we noted on Monday, Median inflation uncertainty, or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes, increased at the one-year and three-year-ahead horizons and decreased at the five-year-ahead horizon.
What's Going WellUnemployment is still low by historical standards, with employers adding 172,000 jobs in May, capping the strongest three-month hiring stretch in more than two years. Separately, the household survey showed native-born employment rising by 294,000 in May, while foreign-born employment fell by 176,000. (compare April to May, table A-7). Consumer spending has also held up, helped in part by larger tax refunds for many households.
Artificial intelligence investment - albeit a massive circle-jerk, continues to drive manufacturing expansion, producing the longest stretch of factory growth since 2022 and helping push stock markets to record highs. Trump frequently points to those gains as evidence that his economic program is working.
Broadcom is backstopping a massive $36 billion private credit SPV with Apollo and Blackstone which will help Anthropic buy Google chips made by Broadcom, even as Google is renting compute from SpaceX while Morgan Stanley, which is arranging the deal, lends money to investors https://t.co/nI7QCVNFTi
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 9, 2026But the benefits have been uneven. The share of national income going to workers through wages and salaries sits at an all-time low, reinforcing concerns about a K-shaped recovery. Corporate profits and asset values have surged for higher-income Americans, while many families continue to feel squeezed by everyday costs.
"When moms and dads lie down to sleep at night and can't, one of the things they're most worried about is the cost of living," Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy told Bloomberg. "I think we have a good story to tell on what we've done... but I wish the president would talk more about it."
And here come Midterms...Republicans hold a narrow House majority and face the historical headwind that typically confronts a president's party in midterm elections. Trump has warned that a Democratic House could pursue impeachment, as it did during his first term. The Senate majority appears more secure, but it could still be tested if economic frustration deepens in key states.
That said, Trump is hardly limping into the midterms. Recent Republican primaries have shown his grip on the GOP remains intact, from Trump-backed Ed Gallrein’s ouster of Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky, to Andy Barr’s win in the Kentucky Senate primary after Trump’s late endorsement, to Tommy Tuberville’s landslide in the Alabama governor primary. But primary dominance may not translate to general-election resilience, especially if independents and working-class swing voters are voting on gas prices, grocery bills, mortgage rates and war fatigue.
An idea: quickly end the war?
Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 10:35What Time Does ‘Widow’s Bay’ Episode 9 Come Out On Apple TV?
Lesley Stahl says ‘60 Minutes’ bloodbath was ‘by far the worst experience I’ve been involved in’
Crispin Glover denies ex’s claim he kept her as ‘sex slave,’ accuses her of assault in lawsuit response
Crispin Glover denies ex’s claim he kept her as ‘sex slave,’ accuses her of assault in lawsuit response
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Katie Holmes just wore the $40 supportive flip-flops Jennifer Aniston also loves
Will Saylor's Latest Bitcoin Buys "Hold The Line"
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
Over the weekend, I posted a prediction on X after Strategy’s sale of 32 bitcoin helped tanked the market last week. I wrote:
“Prediction: Saylor just bought way more than 32 BTC and will disclose it to ‘prove’ it was just an experiment & everything is really fine. He looks clever for buying 10x what he sold 30% lower for 24-48 hours. Then, the market sticks it up his ass anyway and crashes to $40K.”
Lo and behold, Monday morning, we got the announcement:
Strategy has acquired 1,550 BTC for $101 million to increase our BTC Reserve to ₿845,256. We have also increased our USD Reserve by $100 million to $1.0 billion.
To me, the headline isn’t really about 1,550 BTC. The headline is that Michael Saylor felt compelled to immediately reassert the bullish narrative after the controversy surrounding Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC.
For years, Saylor’s image has been built on a simple message: never sell. The moment that narrative cracked, even slightly, Bitcoin bears smelled blood.
I feel like this purchase is an attempt to restore confidence. Not confidence in Strategy’s balance sheet. Confidence in the bitcoin story. And if it was done by selling MSTR shares at a discount, does it not defeat the purpose of the company?
Peter Schiff immediately pointed out his take on the awkwardness of the situation:
“As damage control, @Saylor just announced $MSTR bought 1,550 BTC for $101 million while also increasing its U.S. dollar reserves by $100 million. If MSTR sold stock at a discount, that diluted Bitcoin per share. This doesn’t prove MSTR can sell Bitcoin, but that it can’t.”
Whether you agree with Schiff or not, he’s highlighting the exact issue Saylor is trying to address: perception.
The market now has a simple question in front of it. Did Saylor just successfully reassure everyone that nothing has changed? Or did he just spend $101 million trying to stop a narrative that is already spreading?
That’s why Bitcoin’s reaction from here matters far more than the purchase itself.
BTC is stabilizing around $63,000 now. If it can hold this area and grind higher, Saylor’s buy looks like a perfectly timed show of confidence. The story becomes: “See? The sale was nothing. The panic was overblown. Strategy bought more. Everything is fine.”
But if Bitcoin rolls over anyway? Then we can start talking about what happens when the proverbial turd meets the oscillating wind device.
If BTC is trading $40,000-$50,000 a few weeks from now, nobody will remember the press release. They’ll remember that Strategy possibly sold equity, bought Bitcoin at $65k, and failed to stop the market from falling.
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And importantly, regardless of what happens, the buyer from this weekend is now out of the way again. The announcement creates a temporary psychological floor. Once the purchase is complete, however, the market loses that source of demand. The only thing left is whether organic buyers are willing to step in.
Meanwhile, equity futures are higher now on renewed ceasefire hopes. Risk assets are getting a tailwind this morning. If futures stay green and Bitcoin can’t rally, that’s notable. If futures reverse lower and Bitcoin follows them into the red, that could be an extremely ominous sign that the market, after Friday’s wreckage, has possibly put in a top.
If you ask me, this buy wasn’t really about acquiring another 1,550 BTC, it was about protecting the narrative that Bitcoin isn’t breaking down.
And now the market gets to decide whether that narrative still works. I’ve never been happier to be done actively trading and just sitting back and watching this freak show unfold like I’m watching Love Island or some other reality TV show trash.
QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.
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As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.
And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.
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Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 10:20
Top Republican pushes for reconciliation 3.0 to address affordability
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US Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Jumped In May, Inventories Surge
With the Spring selling season in tatters, existing home sales were expected to rebound in May very modestly (+1.1% MoM) off recent record lows, but instead they outperformed, rising at 3.2% MoM (and April's 0.2% MoM rise was revised higher to a +0.7% MoM rise). That lifted existing home sales up 3.22% YoY - the strongest since September 2025...
Source: Bloomberg
That beat lifted existing home sales SAAR to its highest level of the year (but not exactly signaling a trend)...
Source: Bloomberg
“More Americans are on the move, with home sales rising to the highest level since December,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.
“This is great news for the housing market and the economy.”
Sellers are giving up some ground on price and “meeting buyers where they are,” Realtor.com said.
In May, the median sales price of an existing home climbed 1.3% from a year ago to $429,300, NAR data show.
Meantime, inventory rose slightly from a year ago to 1.55 million, the highest since July and representing 4.5 months of supply at the current sales pace.
Sales rose in the South, Northeast and Midwest from a month earlier, while they were unchanged in the West. In the Midwest, transactions reached 1 million, the highest pace since April 2023.
First-time buyers accounted for 35% of sales, compared with 33% a month earlier and 30% a year ago.
Finally, it appears home sales are catching up to the prior decline in mortgage rates (but we note that rates have been rising since)...
Source: Bloomberg
“Improving affordability is helping drive this momentum,” Yun said.
Tyler Durden Tue, 06/09/2026 - 10:11