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Nike Plunges On Slashed Outlook As UBS Warns Against Catching A Falling Knife

Nike shares are down nearly 10% in pre-market trading in New York after the struggling athletic footwear and apparel company warned its sales slump will deepen and unveiled a restructuring that will eliminate jobs.

As of Thursday's close, year-to-date performance had been absolutely abysmal, with shares down 45%. The extended decline could now put the stock on track for its worst annual loss on record.

The decline follows the sportswear giant's earnings release after hours on Thursday, when it stated that it now expects revenue to decline by a high-single-digit percentage this fiscal year, substantially worse than the 2.4% drop analysts tracked by Bloomberg forecast.

Nike spent years catering to woke culture while neglecting to stay ahead of the industry as competitors ate into its market share. It now plans to fold its Greater China unit into its broader Asia Pacific division and combine Latin America with North America.

This restructuring is expected to deliver $2.5 billion in savings over five years while generating roughly $1 billion in pretax charges.

CEO Elliott Hill wrote in a memo to investors that this restructuring "will require fewer roles over time."

Hill, approaching his third year as CEO, has focused on rebuilding retail relationships and organizing Nike around individual sports.

The ugly guidance on Thursday comes after BofA retail analyst Lorraine Hutchinson downgraded the stock last week and warned that its "turnaround is taking longer" than expected.

UBS retail analyst Jay Sole wrote in a note shortly after earnings about "why it's still not time to buy Nike" and maintained a "Neutral" rating on the stock, lowering his 12-month price target to $34 from $42.

Sole explained:

The key downside risk is Nike's downward EPS revision cycle may persist:

The pivotal Nike question remains "Is all the 'bad news' now priced in?" Despite the pullback in Nike's stock price, we still don't see a good entry point. Nike's stock price is still not cheap at ~28x our FY27 EPS estimate, in our view, and this suggests a solid rebound remains priced in. We continue to see a balanced upside/downside skew. The main upside risk is Nike's November Analyst Day convinces the market the stock's downward earnings revision cycle has ended and investors are willing to put a peak multiple on their FY27 EPS outlook. The main downside risk is the rebound takes much longer than the market anticipates and therefore the downward earnings revision cycle may not be over.

We see 3 reasons NKE's downward EPS revision cycle may not be over:

1. The market may be underestimating the negative impact on unit demand as Nike tries to reduce discounts. Nike's FY27e gross margin likely hits a 20-year low. To drive a gross margin recovery, Nike would have to significantly reduce discounts. We believe the elasticity of demand in this situation could be greater than 1. However, we don't think Nike's -HSD% FY27 revenue guidance incorporates this. We believe the sales guide reflects weak demand, elevated inventory levels and a major China pullback. Thus, we see risk pulling back on promotions drive another big drop in sales in FY28.
2. The market may be underestimating the negative impact on sales from Nike having to reset its Sportswear and Jordan businesses. Nike brand Sportswear plus Jordan Streetwear equates to roughly 60% percent of NKE revenues. 1Q27 sales in these categories fell at least -LDD% y/y. We believe fashion trend shifts and a lack of brand momentum are hurting Nike in a major way. The risk is Nike can't impact these trends soon and this leads to more pressure well into FY28.
3. The market may be underestimating the negative impact on margins if sales slow. Nike announced its 3rd big cost adjustment program since 2020. The concern is Nike may not have very many easy cost reductions left to make and will need to ramp up investment in order to grow. If so, more downside revenue surprises could pressure margins more than we and the market expect.

We lower our FY27-FY29 EPS estimates ~4-6%, respectively:

We lower our FY27 and FY28 revenue growth forecasts related to Nike's reset of its Jordan and Greater China businesses. We note Nike mgmt. expects these actions to weigh on revenues over FY27 and into FY28. Additionally, we now anticipate greater fixed cost deleverage driven by our weak topline forecasts. Lastly, we now model a higher share count given lower than expected buybacks during Q1 and expected going forward given our reduced FCF forecasts. This is partially offset by a reduced SG&A forecast given Nike's newly announced Pace cost savings initiative. These factors are the main drivers of the 4-6% reduction in our FY27-FY29 EPS estimates, respectively. Please find much more forecast detail inside.

Valuation: We lower our PT 19% to $34 and remain Neutral:

Our $34 PT is based on 18x our $1.90 FY29 EPS estimate. Our prior was based on 21x our old $2.00 FY29 EPSe. We lower EPS estimates and the P/E used to value NKE given our view fundamental trends in China and Nike's Jordan business are weaker than previously thought. Our multiples analysis indicates a $34 PT puts NKE's valuation in-line with peers in terms of P/E, P/Sales, & FCF yield (Fig. 6). Our DCF analysis also supports a $34 valuation (Fig. 9).

Other Wall Street analysts offered their first take assessments, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Morgan Stanley (underweight, PT $27 from $31)

• Nike's 1Q print "did little to change" our underweight rating, "with negative EPS revision & valuation de-rating risk remaining intact," analyst Alex Straton says
• "The Investor Day is the next key catalyst, with our focus on the magnitude of further topline right-sizing"

Guggenheim (buy, PT to $50 from $60)

• "With yet another downward revision, the questions remain when guidance cuts will represent the band-aid rip versus slow bleed as they continue to debate the path potential stabilization ahead," analyst Simeon Siegel says

Vital Knowledge

• Analyst Adam Crisafulli says Nike's first-quarter numbers were fine, but the guidance "is pretty ugly"
• Expectations "were very low" after earlier results from peers Dick's Sporting Goods and JD Sports, but the inability of management to get a handle on the business "is going to grate on investors (and might even start spurring talk about potentially changing the CEO position, even though Hill has only been in the role for ~2 years)."

CFRA (buy, PT $62)

• "We are disappointed with the results and expected better full-year EPS guidance," writes analyst Zachary Warring
• Says growth in North America was more than offset by continued deterioration in Greater China and a sharp ongoing decline at Converse

According to Bloomberg data, 15 analysts are "Buy" rated on the stock, another 25 with "Holds," and 7 "Sells." The average 12-month price target is $40. 

UBS Sole makes a great point: the stock is still not at the bottom.  

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 06:55

A Detroit businesswoman, once honored by President Joe Biden, allegedly posed as a US ambassador and a banker to con several victims out of over $1 million to fund her lavish lifestyle.

Supertanker Ablaze After Iran Attack In Hormuz As US Deploys 10K More Troops & Third Carrier To Mideast

Update(1530ET): Iranians are apparently going back on the offensive, after it's been widely reported that US-protected oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz has been fast gaining steam. Iran state media says a supertanker is burning off the coast of Oman after coming under Iranian attack:

Local sources reported that a 2.5 million barrel capacity supertanker that was traveling through the Strait of Hormuz illegally was hit 8 kilometers off the coast of Oman and is burning, reports Fars

Earlier we reported that starting in mid-August (on Aug. 16), Iran’s Supreme National Security Council set October 1 as a deadline. It warned at the time that if Washington failed to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports within 45 days, Tehran could resume attacks against US forces, and by implication step up attacks on foreign shipping.

Iran’s 45-day deadline for the United States has now expired. That deadline has now passed, potentially adding another layer of uncertainty to an already tense confrontation where Tehran may decide it must act 'preemptively' while facing more bombs by Trump (likely after the midterms).

*  *  *

Signs of potential major escalation, or the next round at least (which Trump has hinted will come after the midterm elections), just hit The Wall Street Journal, and sent oil prices soaring. A quick summary:

• The Pentagon is sending a third aircraft-carrier strike group and additional Marine Corps ships to the Middle East, adding 9,000 to 10,000 more troops to the region.
• The ships, jet fighters, Marines and sailors will arrive in the region by the end of November, as President Trump considers renewing strikes on Iran after the midterm elections.
• The additional servicemembers will add to the more than 50,000 troops already in the region, with the deployments coming after Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal for a seven-day ceasefire.

The Trump administration is deploying a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East along with additional Marines, an American official also told Israeli media on Thursday. And later, in the afternoon, Trump posted a new Truth Social message as follows:

The USS Theodore Roosevelt is en route to US Central Command's (CENTCOM) area of operations after having just left San Diego this week. It is expected to relieve the Japan-based USS George Washington, which entered regional waters in mid-August.

But both carriers could also stay on extended deployments. The WSJ writes further:

The additional moves will further strain the U.S. Navy, however, which has experienced supply shortages and faced near-record deployments during the conflict. Iran has in recent weeks fired ballistic missiles at American warships. The crew of the Roosevelt is prepared for a longer-than-normal deployment as well, according to senior Navy officials.

Source: US Navy

Carriers which more frequently had Indo-Pacific deployments have been increasingly diverted to the Middle East in recent years, a trend which had only picked up steam amid tensions with Iran and the Houthis out of Yemen.

Also on Thursday Al Jazeera is newly reporting that three carriers will stay in regional waters, "By the end of November, three aircraft carriers and two landing groups will be deployed around Iran," a US official told the Qatar-based outlet.

And USNI News earlier detailed:

On September 28, USNI News reported that a U.S. defense official had confirmed the carrier’s departure from San Diego the previous day. Navy officials had also warned families that the deployment could exceed seven months, with eight months being used as the planning baseline.

Carrier Strike Group 9 includes Theodore Roosevelt, Carrier Air Wing 11, Destroyer Squadron 23, Information Warfare Squadron 9 and the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Chosin (CG-65). Its embarked air wing brings together several combat and support aircraft. The strike component includes F-35C Lightning II fighters from VFA-86, F/A-18E Super Hornets from VFA-211 and VFA-25, and F/A-18F aircraft from VFA-154. VAQ-137 operates the EA-18G Growler for electronic warfare, while VAW-115 flies the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye for airborne surveillance and command and control.

Whether one of the carriers ends up leaving the theatre or not, the extra deployment does mean President Trump will have a wider range of options for more possible military actions against the Islamic Republic.

He has in a freshly published TIME interview this week reiterated that he may be escalating attacks on Iran after the November midterms if an acceptable deal can't be reached.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 06:44

After a rough start, Benge figured things out and became a cornerstone to the organization's future.

London Mosque Pushes Wife-Beating, Throwing Gays Off Tall Buildings

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A London mosque with charitable status is under investigation for posting sermons that tell husbands to hit disobedient wives and setting out execution methods for gay men, including being thrown from tall buildings.

The lectures were not smuggled out of a private meeting. They sit on the Hackney Islamic Community Centre's own YouTube channel, delivered from the mosque also known as Masjid Daar Al-Hadeeth. The National Secular Society referred the material to the regulator. The Daily Mail published the tapes. Britain's official response is a case file.

The Charity Commission has opened a regulatory compliance case. It has not, so far, taken the charity's status away.

WATCH: Islamic preacher at London mosque encourages worshippers to hit their wives if they refuse to obey themhttps://t.co/YgOqAvbRtU pic.twitter.com/J103nBPrmO

— Video Forensics (@Video_Forensics) October 1, 2026

Yasin Munye, described as an ustaadh at the centre, reads in one lecture from Manthumatu al-Kaba'ir, a poem listing what the tradition treats as major sins. One of them, in his words, is "disobeying the husband, leaving the house without his permission, and disobeying the husband when it comes to calling her to bed, when it comes to calling her for intimacy, when she says 'no' without any excuse."

The remedy he sets out is not a row and a solicitor. "Advise her, and boycott her in bed, don't touch her in bed - and discipline them physically as well, by lightly hitting them to show them who is in charge."

If she still refuses, he says husbands "don't have to give her a house anymore." He adds: "If a person has multiple wives, then he doesn't have to stay with her; he can abandon her and stay with the other wife until she becomes obedient again."

The same lecture turns to sex between men. Munye calls it "one of the most evil acts" and "a crime" that sees both participants "executed in the Sharia." On the method, he is specific. "Scholars, they differ on how the execution occurs. Some of them say he is executed through the sword, like every other normal execution. Others say that they are thrown off of a tall building and rocks are thrown after that on top of them."

Author and Head of Public Policy at Christian Concern, Tim Dieppe, reacts after a preacher at a London mosque reportedly encouraged Muslims to beat their wives to 'discipline' them.

?? Become a Friend of GB News: https://t.co/c2dfqbeDpJ pic.twitter.com/xF25ZZPvZd

— GB News (@GBNEWS) October 1, 2026

The National Secular Society says the videos were published on the charity's YouTube account in 2023. They were still there when campaigners and reporters went looking this week, but have since been made private.

A separate lecture praises a state that still kills people accused of witchcraft. "Sihr (magic) is real, it is true," Munye says. "In Saudi Arabia, they are killed, alhamdulillah (praise be to God), bless that, because a lot of Muslim countries today you don't find this ruling applied. Alhamdulillah, in that country, that punishment is still applied."

A community elder at the same mosque, Abu Sa'ad Muhammad Al-Iraqi, treats the British police as the problem. If a husband "is not nice to you and mistreats you," he says, "there is a way: you bring your family, speak to his family, to teach him a lesson. But you have to give his right, otherwise don't be his wife."

He goes on: "Women think these days, our sisters think, that you only be kind to him if he's been kind back... it doesn't work like that." Then the line that should have ended the tax exemption on the spot. "In another country they can't do that, they won't. But it is an unfortunate reality of this country that they turn wife against husband. They know if you slap them once, they'll call the police for you. They don't fear Allah."

The centre has been a registered charity since 2006. It re-registered as a charitable incorporated organisation in April, a change that separates trustees from the charity's debts and lets it hold property under charity law. Its objects include advancing the Islamic faith. In the year to March 2025 it took in £191,097, almost £155,000 of it in donations, and paid no tax on any of it.

Megan Manson, head of campaigns at the National Secular Society, called the renewal alarming. The charity, she said, has hosted "lectures which promote violence against women, say women cannot refuse their husbands sex, and condone the death penalty for gay men and those accused of 'witchcraft'."

"Hackney Islamic Community Centre is just one of many charities promoting misogyny, homophobia and other harmful ideologies through the charitable purpose of 'the advancement of religion'," she said. "This charitable purpose must be urgently reviewed. It is evidently facilitating the advancement of ideas which, far from benefiting the public, could fuel discrimination, division and abuse."

The Charity Commission provided a stock reply, noting that the commission "has clear expectations that all charities, regardless of their purpose, must operate for the public benefit and provide a safe and trusted environment for all."

It added that concerns had been raised "about alleged sermons and social media content linked to Hackney Islamic Community Centre and we have opened a regulatory compliance case to further assess these. This will determine any next steps."

A compliance case is not a statutory inquiry. Earlier this year a preacher at Hatch End Islamic Centre, Ahmed Shah, told worshippers it was mandatory for women to do the housework and serve their husbands. The sermon came down. The commission offered advice and guidance, but the centre's charity status remained in place.

None of this arrives in a vacuum. In July the Home Office was still handing Skilled Worker sponsorship licences to Islamic bookshops stocking jihad texts and a guide that includes wife-beating. Reform MP Lee Anderson called it "a perfect illustration of 14 years of Tory failure: rather than doctors and engineers, we brought in staff for Islamic shops selling books on jihad."

In August, West Midlands Police invited non-Muslim staff to fast for a day in Ramadan as solidarity. Shadow justice secretary Nick Timothy said the police "should be a national force for all of us, observing the same standards regardless of creed," and that encouraging non-Muslim staff to observe Ramadan was "wholly inappropriate."

The same month a retired officer, Stephen Gray, 65, was convicted under the Communications Act for resharing a bacon meme about Islam. He was fined more than £1,000. "I made a joke, an ironic joke, about Islam. That is all it was at the end of the day. A joke," he said. Lord Young of the Free Speech Union called it "a new low. No one making a similar joke about Jesus would face prosecution."

Last month, Barnet Hill Academy in West Hendon moved onto the state payroll as a voluntary-aided Islamic primary, with a compulsory white hijab for girls from Year 3. Stephen Evans of the National Secular Society said it was "appalling that taxpayers are being asked to fund a school that forces girls as young as seven to wear the hijab."

A recent YouGov survey for King's College London found 34 per cent of British adults believe London already has no-go areas where Sharia dominates and non-Muslims cannot enter.

On the one hand, a former police officer can be fined for a joke about Islam. On the other, a Islamic preacher can tell men to strike their wives, abandon them for a second wife, and advocate for gay men being thrown from buildings, yet retain charity status.

Is there a clearer example of a two-tier state? Mock the creed and the courts come for you. Preach beating and killing, and nothing happens.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 06:30

Not everything is worth buying, after all.

The 90-foot arch on the Big Island was still standing Wednesday, Sept. 23, but was gone by Sunday night, Sept. 27.

After the Yankees spent the final few months of the regular season trying to chase down the Rays for the AL East, to no avail, it sure does seem fitting that they'll meet again in October with everything on the line.

After two devastating hurricanes, the Democratic then-governor's admin steered some $100 million in disaster funding toward affordable housing projects despite hundreds of storm victims stuck in temporary homes, according to an analysis.

Super PACs backing Democrat Kathy Hochul are opening up the spigot to aid her re-election bid against Republican rival Bruce Blakeman.

Resource Nationalism: China Halts October Fuel Exports, Tightening Global Diesel Squeeze

A sense of resource nationalism is gripping the world, whether it involves copper, rare earths, other critical materials or, of course, refined crude products.

Kicking off Thursday, a Reuters report said that the Trump administration has asked Germany and France to release emergency diesel inventories to help create a buffer against the supply squeeze in the industrial fuel or face a potential US diesel export ban.

President Trump has floated a diesel export ban for weeks, while US oil refining executives have warned against it, saying it would only send prices higher.

Now a separate Reuters report says Chinese refiners have suspended October fuel exports as Beijing prioritizes rebuilding domestic stockpiles, threatening to deepen the refining crisis and cause havoc on import-heavy countries. 

This adds to a toxic combination of Russian export halts on industrial fuel following Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries with one-way attack drones and ongoing hostilities at the Hormuz chokepoint. The latest data from Goldman indicate that, with 'dark tankers' accounted for, crude flows through the critical waterway are back to pre-war levels, but refined-product flows are not.

More from Reuters: 

It was not clear whether Beijing would resume permitting refiners' exports after the holiday ends on October 7, the sources said, adding it could depend on domestic fuel inventories and refining output.

China has the world's largest refining capacity, but Beijing is clearly concerned about the global refining crisis and has prioritized boosting local inventories. 

"It highlights that the government's focus remains domestic supply security. International markets are an afterthought," said Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Zameer Yusof, a senior manager for clean oil products at Kpler, pointed out that Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Vietnam, Bangladesh and the Philippines were some of the top destinations for Chinese fuel exports in September.

The risk is widening fuel protectionism, as governments worldwide could begin prioritizing domestic stocks ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter. This could result in more export restrictions, leaving import-dependent countries competing for fewer available liquids on the open market. This protectionism doesn't stop at crude products, as resource nationalism is accelerating.

Asian diesel markets have already responded to fears of missing Chinese supply, with October-November swap spreads hitting two-week highs. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 05:45

A North Carolina boy was shot and killed while sleeping in his own home – and four teens have since been charged with his murder. 

The Indian pilot stabbed by his co-pilot on a flydubai flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv replayed the dramatic attack in a video call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday.

War Returns To Ethiopia As The Horn Edges Closer To Abyss

Authored by Joseph Solis-Mullen via The Libertarian Institute

Barely four years after the Pretoria Agreement formally ended one of the deadliest wars of the twenty-first century, serious fighting has returned to northern Ethiopia. As we begin October, Tigrayan forces have seized the airports at Mekelle, Aksum, and Shire, launched coordinated attacks into neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, and declared themselves once again in a state of full-blown war with the federal government in Addis Ababa. The Ethiopian military responded with drone strikes, artillery, and claims to have killed or captured hundreds of attackers. Flights were suspended, telecommunications disrupted, and civilians in Tigray began stocking food and cash in anticipation of another blockade.

In March of this year I warned in these pages that "the Horn of Africa is ready to explode" -pointing to unresolved territorial disputes, incomplete implementation of the Pretoria deal, military buildups, and the dangerous realignment of forces around Ethiopia, Tigray, and Eritrea. That assessment has, unfortunately, proven accurate. That fragile peace has given way to open conflict, and the risk of a wider regional conflagration is now higher than at any point since 2022.

Ethiopian soldiers, file image

The 2020–2022 Tigray War left somewhere in the area of 600,000 dead, millions displaced, and large parts of the region in ruins. Ethiopian federal forces, Amhara militias, and Eritrean troops fought the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in a campaign marked by mass atrocities, famine, and ethnic cleansing. The Pretoria Agreement called for a cessation of hostilities, disarmament of Tigrayan forces, restoration of services, and an interim administration. Implementation was partial at best. Disarmament remained incomplete. Territorial disputes in the center, north, and northwest of country went unresolved—including occupation of parts of Tigray by Eritrea. Political power struggles inside the TPLF eventually produced a hardline faction that reasserted control, reinstated the pre-war regional government, and began mobilizing and conscripting fighters.

By early August 2026, lower-level clashes had already resumed near the Sudanese border. Federal drone strikes followed. In mid-September the TPLF announced an alliance with six other armed groups, including elements of the Amhara Fano, with whom it has a fraught history and territorial dispute, aimed at removing Abiy’s government. Days later the airports fell and fighting spread. The former adversaries now appear to be cooperating on the battlefield against a common enemy in Addis Ababa.

This temporary marriage of convenience is one of the most striking features of the current round.

Equally significant is the role of Eritrea. During the last war, despite their history of enmity, Eritrean forces fought alongside the Ethiopian army against the TPLF. Relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have since deteriorated sharply. Unsurprising, as since 2023 Abiy Ahmed’s Ethiopia has repeatedly emphasized the need of securing Red Sea access—particularly through the Eritrean port of Assab, which has understandably alarmed President Isaias Afwerki’s government. Ethiopian officials have accused Eritrea of financially and materially supporting the TPLF and the broader anti-government alliance. Eritrea denies the charges. Independent verification of direct combat involvement remains limited, yet the strategic logic is clear: a weakened or distracted Ethiopia reduces the immediate threat to Eritrean territory and ports.

Sudan adds another combustible layer. As I examined in detail earlier this month in “Could Washington Pick a Side in Sudan’s Civil War?” the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has already drawn in a complex web of external actors —the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Israel, and others—whose interests increasingly center on Red Sea security, ports, and the strategic geography of the Horn. Ethiopia has been accused of allowing the RSF to train and stage operations from its territory; the SAF has, in turn, been accused of hosting or assisting Tigrayan fighters. Neither claim has produced confirmed large-scale intervention in the present fighting, but the proxy relationships are already in place. A major escalation in western Tigray could easily merge the two wars, turning northern Ethiopia into another front in the broader contest over the approaches to the Red Sea.

This pattern of interlocking crises is not new. In “Washington and Africa Are Intertwining Their Chaos,” I illustrated how U.S. policy across the continent has repeatedly transformed local conflicts into regional infernos through arms, training, intelligence partnerships, and the selection of favored clients. Somalia remains the clearest long-running example. As I detailed in “The Opportunity Costs of Our War in Somalia,” more than two decades of American airstrikes and special operations have failed to defeat al-Shabaab, have helped create the conditions for its rise in the first place, and continue to consume resources while delivering no measurable benefit to the American people. The same institutional habits that sustain that campaign—inertia, bureaucratic self-interest, and the refusal to acknowledge failure—are precisely what raise the risk that Washington will eventually feel compelled to “do something” as the Horn destabilizes further.

From a military perspective, Abiy’s government enters this round in a stronger position than in 2020. It possesses a substantial arsenal of drones that proved decisive in the later stages of the previous conflict, and the federal army is larger. Yet it is also stretched by ongoing insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia. The TPLF has reconstituted forces, secured at least temporary local allies, and demonstrated the ability to seize key infrastructure quickly. Neither side appears confident of a rapid, decisive victory. Both appear willing to risk another prolonged and catastrophic war.

Outside powers have so far limited themselves to calls for de-escalation. That is the correct public posture. The danger lies in the temptation, already visible in some quarters, to treat the conflict as another arena in which Washington or its regional partners must choose a side for larger geopolitical reasons—Red Sea security, countering Iranian influence, or balancing against other Gulf actors, specifically the Houthis. American policymakers have a long record of entering complex local conflicts with incomplete information, overestimating their ability to shape outcomes, and then discovering that their preferred clients commit the same atrocities they once condemned. Sudan’s civil war already illustrates the pattern. Ethiopia does not need a second demonstration.

This is going to be new levels of nightmare https://t.co/fSZAj7QK0s

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) October 1, 2026

The human costs of renewed full-scale war would be immense. Tigray has not recovered from the last conflict. Hundreds of thousands remain displaced. Food insecurity is chronic. Another blockade, another wave of drone strikes on civilian infrastructure, and another cycle of revenge killings would deepen a humanitarian catastrophe that the international system is already failing to address. History in the Horn of Africa offers little evidence that military “solutions” produce lasting political settlements. They produce exhaustion, new grievances, and the conditions for the next round of fighting.

Diplomatic pathways still exist. They require genuine inclusion of Eritrea, credible confidence-building measures, and a willingness on all sides to implement the core provisions of Pretoria rather than treat the agreement as a temporary truce to be discarded when convenient—which requires settling the federal relationship with the necessary stakeholders and permanently putting to rest the dispute between Tigray and its Amhara neighbors. Whether that political will materializes remains doubtful. What is not doubtful is that another major war in the Horn will kill large numbers of people who have already suffered enough, further destabilize an already fragile region, and create new opportunities for external powers to meddle at the expense of the local populations.

Washington’s most constructive contribution would be to stay out—genuinely stay out—and to discourage its partners from treating northern Ethiopia as a secondary front in someone else’s strategic competition. The people of Tigray, Amhara, Afar, and Eritrea do not need another proxy war. They need the fighting to stop.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 05:00

Cross your fingers a state judge’s slapdown this week of the pied-à-terre-tax’s rollout marks the beginning of the end of the whole misbegotten tax.

The actor played the villain Malcolm Beck in the popular Taylor Sheridan hit series.

The actor played the villain Malcolm Beck in the popular Taylor Sheridan hit series.

"The resident had been there for more than three hours," according to police.

Putin accused the West and Europe of escalating tensions by talking about preparing for a war with Moscow in the coming years.

The former employees were investigated for sharing data with an outside AI evaluation group.