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Deck the halls — no — discount the halls!

A demand rebound in Europe offset the loss of US tax incentives and stiffer competition in China.

Kanter and Rodman were in attendance at Trump's speech in Oklahoma on Thursday.

France Should Grok How To Solve Its Fiscal Crisis, Please Make No Mistakes

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist At Rabobank

European equity indices fell sharply yesterday, pacing gains in sovereign yields for France, Italy and Greece. The spread between 10-year OATs and Bunds blew out to more than 140bps as the French government unveiled plans for €43bn worth of spending cuts and higher taxes in an effort to tackle France’s yawning fiscal deficit. The plan contains cuts to France’s social security system, including partial freezes to pensions indexation, trimming of retiree tax benefits, and a slower projected pace of healthcare spending growth.

Nevertheless, the market reaction suggests that investors are not optimistic about the prospects for reform. Firstly, the projected result is not exactly stellar. If all the measures are enacted the fiscal deficit would only fall from 5.4% to 5%. Secondly, social security retrenchment has proven an intractable challenge that has outlasted several governments and the prospects for successfully steering reform through a fractured national parliament a few months out from a contentious Presidential election where the leading candidates on the populist left and right generally oppose pension reform are not strong.

The sense that the French administrative state lacks the capacity to reform itself is reflected in the fact that the sovereign spread to bunds is now substantially worse than is the case for Italy and Greece. Those two were among the ‘PIIGS’ during the European sovereign debt crisis of the early 2010s and were previous viewed as the worst offenders in terms of fiscal responsibility. No longer.

The French government now says that debt interest costs are expected to rise 15% next year to €91bn, which is almost double what the republic plans to spend on core defense this year (i.e. excluding pensions) even as pressures to commit more funding to military are only increasing. Obviously, rising borrowing costs come at an unhelpful time as European leaders issue ever more urgent warnings about Russian hybrid warfare, and as Russia threatened to use nuclear weapons if NATO were to blockade the Kaliningrad. In such an environment European re-armament and sovereign supply chain capacity is surely a necessity rather than a nice to have.

Regarding the latter, Europe is off to a slow start. Politico carried a story yesterday regarding the EU’s rollout of ‘Element Pro’, which it describes as an internal sovereign backup to Microsoft Teams that could be used in the event of a “disruption”. Anonymous EU officials quoted in the story were less than impressed, describing the system in unflattering terms and suggesting that in any tech conflict with the United States the U.S. would “instantly win the war”.

Sovereign capacity over critical supply chains is a theme that we have been banging on about for many years now. The importance of that capacity is now highlighted almost daily. A case in point is reports yesterday that the Trump administration had told European counterparts to release diesel stockpiles or face the risk of a US export ban. Brent crude oil prices were down by almost 1.2% to $102.31/bbl yesterday as markets continued to price in the effects of rising flows out of the Strait of Hormuz, but diesel prices remain one of several political sore points for the Trump administration ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.

The US now has enormous influence over flows of crude and refined products from the Americas and the Middle East. With little oil of its own, and an outsized appetite for diesel, Europe again finds itself bargaining from a position of relative weakness. Several market analysts have noted that a US diesel export ban could prove to be self-defeating, prompting refineries to cut production runs that would raise prices for even more politically sensitive gasoline, while logistics issues conspire to prevent meaningful falls in retail diesel prices.

Mindful of this, European leaders might choose to call the US’s bluff, but differing views regarding the rationality of the US President could create dissent on that score that again exposes the political frailties inherent in the EU’s status as a collection of nations with varying interests, rising nationalistic fervour, and relatively powerful national governments. By contrast, and despite their own challenges with political polarisation, the US, China and Russia are internally coherent nations with much stronger central government.

Reclaiming lost sovereignty was supposed to be one of the rationales for Britain’s 2016 decision to leave the EU, but new PM Burnham has now made it clear that a fresh in-out referendum on EU membership could be a feature of Labour’s next election manifesto. Meanwhile, former PM Truss – who was famously outlasted by a wilting lettuce – noted with some schadenfreude yesterday that 30y gilt yields had breached 6% for the first time since the late 1990s and asked in a not-so-subtle dig whether the Bank of England would “Bailey” the government out again.

Gilt yields hit 6%.

Will the Bank of England Bailey the Government out again? pic.twitter.com/GJ1Lu2WKPx

— Liz Truss (@trussliz) October 1, 2026

Truss has publicly implied that she was effectively deposed in a liberal deep state coup after her government unveiled a mini budget replete with tax and spending cuts that precipitated a disorderly move higher in sovereign yields and her swift replacement with the more politically orthodox figure of Rishi Sunak. The Bank of England holds responsibility for ensuring the stability of the financial system, but in an era of fiscal dominance the lines of demarcation between independent monetary authorities and elected officials are increasingly in dispute. As Treasury yields and US mortgage rates soared to new highs this week Donald Trump’s efforts to exert more control over the Fed again came to the fore via renewed legal threats to Jerome Powell.

Speaking of renewed threats, the US just deployed a third carrier strike group to the Middle East and has reportedly sent new missile defence systems to gulf allies to assist in protecting vital energy infrastructure. That’s as Trump recently threatened that the US may resume bombing of Iran after the midterm elections (which has been our geopolitical base-case), or if it is found that the Omani co-pilot who attempted to hijack a FlyDubai flight to Tel Aviv had links to Iran.

Just as at the start of the war, three carrier groups in the region would be an unusually large concentration of firepower if the US didn’t intend to use it. With that context, it may be the case that President Trump has already decided to resume bombing, or it may not. There are reports circulating today that claim President Trump spent “hours” seeking the counsel of the GrokAI chatbot regarding the likely response of Venezuelans to a US capture of Nicolas Maduro. The chatbot reportedly advised Trump that the Americans would be welcomed as liberators.

Perhaps France could ask Grok how to solve its fiscal woes? Please make no mistakes.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 10:45

Earlier this week, People confirmed the "Arrested Development" star is dating the heiress.

Earlier this week, People confirmed the "Arrested Development" star is dating the heiress.

RTX's Raytheon Awarded $24.4B Missile Contract as Trump Finally Admits Stockpiles "A Little Bit Lower"

The Pentagon on Thursday announced a massive new defense contract at a moment many Congressional members are concerned over America's dwindling arsenal of both defensive and offensive missiles and weapons systems.

Raytheon, an RTX unit, has been awarded a $24.4 billion contract for the accelerated production of SM-6 missiles, amid the scramble to replace them in the wake of Trump's Operation Epic Fury bombing campaign of Iran.

A Pentagon statement described the missiles as "critical anti-air and anti-surface warfare munition" and previewed that "this five-year agreement, with two additional option years, will drive faster production."

SM-6 military file image

The announcement further described that the deal "provides the defense industry with the long-term predictability needed to expand workforce capacity and secure critical supply chains."

Additionally, "The Navy said the multiyear contract is meant to provide a steady and reliable supply of the Standard Missile-6 interceptors, which can carry out both offensive strikes and missile defense missions."

President Trump has stretching back over weeks and months consistently denied that the Pentagon is suffering a weapons shortage due to the Iran war. Instead, he has blamed any shortfall or stockpile concerns on his predecessor Biden and his Ukraine war policies.

But certainly the Pentagon is acting like there's a problem, given it is quickly handing out these large contracts in order to establish "faster production" and greater "long-term predictability". This after a mid-July report from the Pentagon's inspector general did point to a serious and growing problem.

Trump had slammed the report as "mostly fake news" at the time; however, just this week he finally did acknowledge that some munitions "are a little bit lower" in the wake of the seven-month long Iran conflict. Trump's new remark this week is as follows:

"Some forms of ammunition are a little bit lower than other forms," the president said in an interview with TIME magazine published Thursday, adding: "We're stocking up at levels we've never done before."

Some critics among MAGA have underscored that the munitions crisis reveals an abandonment of 'America First' policy, also given the immense amounts of interceptors expected on Israel and Gulf allies of late.

Ultimately the only winners in all of this are Israel and the major defense contractors, who will continue to see huge returns with the help of the US taxpayer.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 10:30

Europe will release a “massive amount” of diesel fuel, President Trump announced Friday after pressuring allies to open their emergency reserves.

40 Percent Error Rate Found In Afghan Refugee Vetting Samples, Inspector General Finds

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

A Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Inspector General review has found errors in 40 percent of sampled asylum files for Afghan nationals who entered the United States under a Biden-era refugee program.

Afghan families walk to a bus that will take them to a refugee processing center at Dulles International Airport in Dulles, Va., on Aug. 24, 2021. Joshua Roberts/Getty Images

The report analyzed data from Operation Allies Welcome, which was initiated in the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and aimed to resettle roughly 97,000 Afghan nationals in the United States.

The DHS Office of Inspector General (OIG) analyzed a sample of 678 applications from 13,682 adjudicated applications filed by Afghan nationals resettled in the United States under the program.

The analysis identified a 40 percent error rate in adjudicating asylum files, including 303 missed aliases, 45 unresolved records, 23 missing security checks, and 115 other documentation issues, the OIG said in a Sept. 23 report.

"Most errors resulted from missed aliases or incomplete documentation, including two cases related to potential inadmissibility on terrorism-related grounds," the report states.

One of the terrorism-related errors involved an asylum officer failing to include an applicant's Terrorism-Related Inadmissibility Grounds worksheet in the case file. The second error involved officials failing to indicate whether they approved or disapproved an asylum officer's analysis of an applicant subject to Terrorism-Related Inadmissibility Grounds.

In a Sept. 29 statement, DHS said that Operation Allies Welcome led to many criminal immigrants being released into the United States, including those accused of sexual battery, kidnapping, drug possession, hit-and-runs, and lewd or lascivious acts with a minor.

For instance, in November 2025, DHS assisted the FBI in arresting an Afghan national who was charged with threatening to kill Americans. He was in the United States as part of Operation Allies Welcome.

In December 2025, a member of the ISIS terrorist group's Afghanistan affiliate who entered the United States under the operation was arrested. And in March this year, an Afghan national allowed into the country under the program who previously was convicted of indecent exposure to a minor was arrested.

In a June 2022 statement, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), under the Biden administration, had announced that Afghans who have supported and worked with the United States in Afghanistan and have undergone rigorous vetting could qualify for protection and other immigration benefits.

Then-DHS Secretary Alejandro N. Mayorkas said in the statement that this would "allow eligible individuals who pose no national security or public safety risk to receive asylum, refugee status, or other legal immigration status, demonstrating the United States' continued commitment to our Afghan allies and their family members."

Mullin: 'Dangerously Mismanaged'

DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin said in the recent statement: "Our asylum system should be as strict as possible. If even one dangerous criminal or terrorist slips through and enters our country, it endangers countless American lives."

The Operation Allies Welcome program was "dangerously mismanaged" and disregarded "the thorough and well-established procedures of [the U.S.] asylum system," Mullin said.

OIG said in its report that it initiated the evaluation after receiving complaints that an agreement made by DHS would result in asylum adjudication issues. DHS made the settlement with certain plaintiffs in September 2023, agreeing to adjudicate 90 percent of asylum applications from the Operation Allies Welcome population within 150 days.

This went against standard procedures, in which applications from non-Operation Allies Welcome groups can take up to 180 days.

According to the OIG, USCIS employees complained that the shortened time frame could negatively affect proper review of applications. OIG included a response by USCIS to a redacted draft copy of the latest report.

USCIS Director Joseph B. Edlow said in a letter to DHS OIG that the draft report failed to consider that instances of missing aliases or improper security checks were taking place amid "broader, established, and robust screening, vetting, and security checks safeguards already in place that minimize the impact of these errors."

Edlow said that the agency's security check requirements include biometric and biographical checks of individuals against multiple law enforcement and watchlist databases. The agency also continues to enhance vetting requirements for people who have applied for asylum, according to the letter.

A December 2025 report by the Center for Immigration Studies said that more than 200,000 Afghan nationals had entered the United States under the previous administration's policies after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

"Contrary to popular narratives, most Afghans admitted during and after the evacuation had nothing to do with the U.S. government or any of its contractors," senior researcher Nayla Rush said in the report. "They were not U.S. 'allies,' nor were they 'persecuted' individuals in need of refugee resettlement."

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 10:20

Governor Hochul raged that the Cornell University student was “failed at every turn” — as she kicked the local DA off the case and put AG Letitia James in charge.

From big-ticket items to the best beauty essentials, see this is what's worth adding to cart.

From big-ticket items to the best beauty essentials, see this is what's worth adding to cart.

It's the end of an era for a value retailer.

Seaver, who recently lost his longtime job as Parton's head of security, was reportedly arrested for an incident at a Nashville bar over 25 years ago.

Seaver, who recently lost his longtime job as Parton's head of security, was reportedly arrested for an incident at a Nashville bar over 25 years ago.

Oil Dips As Europe Folds - G7 Agrees To 100-Million-Barrel Emergency Release

Update (1000ET): French President Macron has just confirmed what we reported earlier, that the G7 has agreed to release as much as 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel stocks after pressure from the Trump administration to quell rising fuel prices.

The release, being coordinated by the International Energy Agency, will take place over the next four months, Emmanuel Macron, France’s president told journalists in a briefing on Friday. He is also the current chair of the G7 nations.

The G7 would like to trigger a drop in fuel prices, he said.

Trump was quick to respond too, with no real gloating yet...

Oil prices fell back towards the low of the day on the news...

Both US and EU diesel prices are also lower...

With little oil of its own, and an outsized appetite for diesel, Europe again found itself bargaining from a position of relative weakness... and bending the knee.

*  *  *

As we detailed earlier, Bloomberg's reported that France proposed that other European countries and International Energy Agency members release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency stockpiles would signal that Brussels is caving to President Trump’s demand. 

Europe's dependence on US fuel supplies gives the Trump administration major bargaining power as the continent approaches winter with below-average energy supplies and exposure to higher costs if a cold snap or further supply disruptions materialize.

The report has not been officially confirmed and is based on sources, but it says European countries are considering releasing 50 million barrels of diesel, with International Energy Agency members making another 50 million barrels of crude available.

One day earlier, Reuters reported that the Trump administration asked Germany and France to release emergency diesel inventories to help create a buffer against the supply squeeze in the industrial fuel or face a potential US diesel export ban.

The art of wheeling and dealing is all about leverage, and it appears the US threat of a diesel export ban might be enough to make Europeans come to their senses and dump emergency fuel and crude supplies onto the market.

Bloomberg also mentioned that French President Emmanuel Macron and President Trump spoke overnight and that G7 leaders are set to convene around 0830 ET.

"It is in Europe's best interest to work with the United States as we pursue multiple pathways to boost the supply of refined products and lower costs for consumers," one source, a US official, told Reuters on Thursday.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 10:05

More kids and teens are getting colorectal cancer. And when it does strike, researchers say the disease manifests differently than in adults.

The young teen who leapt from the fourth floor of a Los Angeles high school lived his life as a "beautiful, caring, and loving boy," according to his grief-stricken family.

The "Romancing the Stone" co-stars had a "magic spell" of a connection -- before Douglas' estranged wife confronted Turner on set.

The "Romancing the Stone" co-stars had a "magic spell" of a connection -- before Douglas' estranged wife confronted Turner on set.