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Gov. Kathy Hochul will have to use her leverage to neutralize the mayor’s rhetoric — and to fix the upcoming $22.8 billion MTA budget for 2027, whose woes aren’t Mamdani’s fault, but hers.  

Moodiness is often considered part of the teenage years, but for some adolescents, persistent irritability, withdrawal or changes in behavior may signal something deeper.

Armor, Ammunition And Battlefield Adaptation

Goldman Sachs analyst Sam Burgess, who covers European defense companies including Airbus, BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, Renk, Rolls-Royce, Safran, Leonardo, Thales, and Dassault Aviation, held a call with retired German Lieutenant General Andreas Marlow to provide clients with greater color on the rapidly evolving modern battlefield and its implications for defense-sector investment decisions.

Marlow said the war in Ukraine has exposed a slew of weaknesses in conventional armies rather than rendering them obsolete. He said future combat will depend on integrated forces combining armor, infantry, artillery, all categories of drones, air defense, electronic warfare, and long-range strike capabilities.

Marlow described how drones and low-cost warfare have created a heavily contested zone stretching 40 to 50 kilometers across the modern battlefield, increasing demand for unmanned systems and counter-drone protection.

We have previously described these kill zones as part of the "world's AI weapons laboratory," where suicide drones and experimental unmanned systems, some equipped with fully automated kill chains, are the leading causes of death on the front lines.

Here is Burgess breaking down the conversation for clients:

Land Forces

Have drones reduced the importance of conventional land forces?

• No. General Marlow was unequivocal that conventional land forces remain essential. He said he did not know anyone in uniform who seriously believed that armed forces should dispense with tanks, artillery, infantry or other armoured capabilities.
• The widespread adoption of drones and other unmanned systems is changing warfare, in his view, but it has not eliminated the requirement for conventional military capabilities. Instead, it has exposed areas in which existing forces were insufficiently protected or integrated. The implication is that conventional platforms need to evolve, rather than simply be abandoned.
• He also cautioned against assuming that the current effectiveness of drones will remain unchanged. Their impact has partly reflected the absence of sufficiently mature countermeasures. As counter-UAV (unmanned aerial vehicles) systems, electronic warfare and other defensive technologies improve, the balance between drones and traditional platforms is also likely to evolve.

What is combined-arms warfare and why is it necessary?

• No single system can deliver battlefield success independently in our expert's view. Infantry, armour, artillery, drones, electronic warfare, air defence and long-range strike must operate as part of an integrated force.
• In this context, he believes the experience of Ukraine does not demonstrate that conventional platforms are fundamentally obsolete. Rather, it shows that conventional forces can be vulnerable when operating without adequate air defence, electronic warfare, counter-UAV protection or situational awareness.
• General Marlow therefore sees emerging technologies as enhancing conventional forces rather than replacing them. UAVs, unmanned ground vehicles, AI, electronic warfare and digitalisation can improve reconnaissance, targeting, protection and the speed of decision-making, but they still need to be integrated into a broader force structure.

How is the battlefield changing?

• Battlefield transparency has increased significantly. Persistent UAV surveillance makes it more difficult for formations to move without being detected, while electronic warfare has become critical to the operation and defence of drones and unmanned ground systems.
• General Marlow described a highly exposed or contested zone that may extend approximately 40 to 50 kilometres. Moving personnel and equipment through this area can be extremely hazardous.
• Unmanned systems are consequently becoming increasingly important in these exposed areas. UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) and UGVs (unmanned ground vehicles) can conduct reconnaissance, transport, targeting and other tasks while reducing the direct risk to soldiers. This does not remove the need for manned forces, but it may change where and how personnel are employed.
• Electronic warfare is also becoming important at multiple levels of command. This includes protecting friendly systems, disrupting enemy sensors and communications, and maintaining the ability to operate drones in a heavily contested electromagnetic environment.

What role will AI play?

• General Marlow characterised AI, when integrated into conventional military structures, as the potentially more profound long-term battlefield revolution.
• The importance of AI is not necessarily as a standalone capability. Rather, he believes it lies in its potential to connect sensors, improve targeting, accelerate decision-making and support the deployment of both conventional and unmanned systems. This reinforces the broader theme that emerging technologies are most valuable when incorporated into an integrated force, rather than considered as substitutes for existing capabilities.

German Army force structure

• General Marlow expects the German Army to retain both light and heavy forces while developing a distinct medium-force category.
• Light forces include airborne and other rapidly deployable formations. Their principal advantage is speed and deployability, although they have less protection and firepower than heavier units.
• Heavy forces will continue to centre on tracked, mechanised formations equipped with main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, supported by artillery, engineers and other enabling capabilities required for high-intensity combat. Leopard 2 and Puma form the core of this heavy-force structure.
• Medium forces are being developed as a distinct category between light and heavy formations. Built around protected wheeled vehicles, particularly the Boxer family, these brigades are intended to combine greater deployability than heavy tracked forces with more protection and firepower than light forces. Their wheeled mobility should enable rapid deployment over long distances with less reliance on rail, sea transport and specialised heavy-equipment transporters, allowing them to provide meaningful combat power while heavier formations are still deploying.
• Modernisation will therefore take place across all three categories. General Marlow believes existing force structures will largely be retained, but with additional unmanned systems, electronic warfare, counter-UAV protection and digital capabilities integrated at progressively lower tactical levels. He noted, for example, that UAV support could increasingly be available to platoon-level formations.

Where do Leopard, Puma and Boxer fit?

• Leopard tanks and Puma infantry fighting vehicles are expected to remain at the core of Germany's heavy forces.
• Boxer is particularly important to the medium-force concept because it combines protection, road mobility and a highly modular design. It can support a range of configurations, including wheeled infantry fighting vehicle, command-and-control, medical, recovery and counter-UAV roles.
• General Marlow expects Boxer to become the standard platform for Germany's medium forces, while also being used for selected applications within the heavy-force structure. Its modularity should allow new technologies and mission systems to be incorporated without requiring a wholly new vehicle for every role.
• This suggests that the evolution of Germany's land forces will not be based on a simple choice between traditional armour and new technology. Instead, he believes platforms such as Leopard, Puma and Boxer are likely to provide the protected structure into which unmanned systems, missiles, active protection and digital capabilities are integrated.

What capability gaps remain?

• Germany has an immediate need to improve the equipment, readiness and depth of its land forces following an extended period of underinvestment, according to our expert.
• General Marlow highlighted ammunition stocks, reserves, electronic warfare, counter-UAV protection and unmanned systems as important requirements. Germany also needs sufficient operational depth to sustain a prolonged conflict, rather than structuring the force only for short-duration deployments.
• Personnel and infrastructure are part of the same challenge. In his assessment, the supporting infrastructure is not yet sufficient for the force Germany aspires to build, implying that expansion will require investment beyond frontline equipment alone.

Why must Europe strengthen its land capabilities?

• General Marlow believes that even if the United States remains willing to reinforce Europe, personnel and heavy equipment cannot all cross the Atlantic immediately. Some US capabilities can deploy rapidly, but heavy formations and equipment require more time.
• European NATO members therefore need sufficient combat capability to operate before US reinforcements arrive. In General Marlow's view, larger European countries will continue to require substantial conventional military forces, with Germany, Poland and France potentially playing particularly important roles in Europe's immediate land defence.

Artillery and ammunition

Will drones replace 155 mm artillery?

• General Marlow sees drones and artillery as complementary rather than interchangeable.
• Drones can identify and engage individual targets with precision, but tube artillery remains important for sustained fire, volume and operations across a wider range of battlefield conditions. Adverse weather can reduce the effectiveness of drones, whereas artillery may remain operational in those environments.
• Germany is therefore continuing to rebuild its artillery capabilities and establish additional artillery formations. Future forces are likely to require a combination of tube artillery, UAVs, missiles and other long-range strike systems.
• The changing battlefield may alter the balance between these systems and the way in which they are used. However, it does not remove the need for conventional artillery or sustained volumes of fire.

Will demand for 155 mm ammunition remain high?

• Yes. In General Marlow's view, NATO countries need to rebuild and maintain credible ammunition stockpiles following the depletion and underinvestment of previous years. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the importance of shell availability during a prolonged, high-intensity conflict.
• Although wartime consumption patterns may evolve as drones and other technologies become more prevalent, General Marlow expects demand for 155 mm ammunition to remain significant beyond the current conflict.
• This is not simply a question of reaching a particular inventory level. NATO countries also require the ability to replenish stocks and increase output if another conflict occurs.

Should underutilised production capacity be maintained?

• Yes. General Marlow argued that ammunition capacity should not be assessed solely by reference to peacetime utilisation rates.
• Once inventories have been replenished, some production facilities may appear underutilised. However, maintaining industrial resilience and the ability to scale output rapidly is strategically important. Several companies have already expanded production, but the ability to increase output further needs to be preserved.

Modernising existing platforms

How should existing land platforms evolve?

• Existing platforms should be modernised rather than automatically replaced. The principal requirements include counter-UAV systems, active protection, organic drones, electronic warfare and better situational awareness.
• Protection against drones may also need to extend below the platform level. Individual soldiers and small units could require their own detection, electronic warfare or defensive capabilities as UAVs become more pervasive.
• General Marlow did not identify a generational divide within the German Ministry of Defence or procurement community over traditional vs emerging technologies.
• In his view, UAVs, UGVs, AI and electronic warfare will be incorporated into existing force structures because they improve the effectiveness and survivability of conventional platforms.

Procurement and spending

What has constrained the speed of German defence procurement?

• The current procurement system developed during approximately three decades of military downsizing after 1990. It is now being asked to deliver much larger quantities of equipment within significantly shorter timeframes.
• After many years in which budgets and procurement volumes were declining, the challenge has changed. Funding is becoming more available, but time, personnel and implementation capacity have been constrained.
• German and EU regulatory requirements can also slow the process. The key challenge is to shorten the period between identifying a military requirement, placing an order and delivering usable equipment.
• General Marlow stressed that the system is evolving rather than remaining static. The Ministry of Defence is working to improve procurement, and he expects the process to continue improving.
• He also cautioned against applying every lesson from Ukraine directly to Germany without adaptation. The conflict provides extensive operational evidence, including insights gained through training Ukrainian forces and analysing battlefield developments, but capabilities still need to reflect Germany's own military requirements and force structure.

Should too much be read into a single year's defence budget?

• No. Annual budget movements may not accurately represent the longer-term direction of defence spending in General Marlow's view.
• In some areas, particularly ammunition, industry may simply be unable to absorb the full amount of potential expenditure in a single year. Spending can therefore be constrained by industrial capacity, procurement timelines and the ability to deploy funding, rather than by an absence of political demand.
• Governments may also be reluctant to commit excessive resources in one budget year or to allocate too much funding from a multi year allocation in one year. Preserving some flexibility allows future administrations to respond to changing military requirements and technological developments.

Professional subscribers can read a lot more on military trends here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 05:45

Former West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin criticizes Democratic Socialists of America's platform on 'Face the Nation'.

Kurt Cobain’s widow Courtney Love once demanded that the entire police file on his death be handed over to her, with no copies left at the Seattle Police Department, according to a newly unearthed document.

An Idaho man among two people killed in a mass shooting at a recently opened Idaho In-N-Out restaurant was excited the burger joint had launched a new location but waited to eat there because of the hype, his sister has said as she paid tribute to her “goofball” sibling. Christopher Claunch, 59, died from his...

US Raises Travel Advisory For Spanish Area Amid Illegal Immigrant Influx

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of State on Saturday increased a travel advisory for Ceuta, Spain, to a higher level due to unrest caused by a recent mass influx of illegal immigrants.

The agency said it updated its travel advisory for Americans to Ceuta to Level 3, or “reconsider travel,” due to “massive and uncontrolled arrival of migrants from Morocco to Ceuta” that could lead to an “unpredictable and dangerous security situation.”

“Spain has deployed the Spanish military, Spanish National Police, and Guardia Civil as a result of this serious situation,” it said. “Americans should reconsider travel to the area given the risks posed to their safety and security.”

Spanish authorities on Saturday installed a 1,600-foot barrier along the sea border between Ceuta, located in North Africa, and Morocco following the surge.

At least 67 of the border crossers died, including some who drowned and others who were killed in a stampede to cross a breakwater barrier, the Spanish government said Saturday.

The sudden arrival of 50,000 to 60,000 people in the territory on July 30 and July 31 sparked a humanitarian crisis and reignited the immigration debate in Europe and beyond, although at least 80 percent of the illegal immigrants had returned to Morocco by Saturday, according to government estimates.

Other European Union countries called for urgent talks and a coordinated response to the situation in Ceuta.

“We cannot allow uncontrolled mass crossings, the instrumentalization of migration or other hybrid threats to create the perception that illegal entry into the European Union is possible. That a migrant’s illegal entry can turn into legal stay,” a letter to top EU officials, released on Saturday by the Italian government’s office, said in a statement.

“Such a perception would encourage further attempts, undermine confidence in our common migration policy and have repercussions for all Member States,” it added.

Moroccan illegal immigrants walk along Avenida Martínez Catena in Ceuta toward the border area on July 31, 2026, at 9:34 p.m. local time. Etienne Fauchaire/The Epoch Times

Leaders of Italy, Denmark, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Sweden signed the letter asking the EU’s current Irish presidency to convene a video conference of interior ministers.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez criticized the reaction to the events in Ceuta, saying calls for Spain to be suspended from the EU’s borderless Schengen zone were “driven by prejudice, fake news, ignorance, or political interest.”

According to the State Department, Spain—other than Cueta—is currently under a “Level 2” travel advisory, meaning to “exercise increased caution.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 05:00

No, The Spanish Invaders Have Not All Just 'Gone Home'

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Spanish authorities and their leftist allies are pushing the line that the tens of thousands of migrants who stormed Ceuta have mostly "gone home." The claim is pure fantasy. Fresh video from the streets shows the city still under siege, with invaders assaulting facilities, smashing graves, clashing with locals, and turning a Spanish enclave into a no-go zone.

This is the same dangerous mass migration reality that open-borders ideologues keep denying, even as the evidence piles up in real time.

The official narrative landed hard on Friday. Spain's Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares declared that "the practical totality of those who entered Ceuta have already returned to Morocco." The Spanish Embassy in the UK amplified the message, insisting almost everyone was gone, that no one could reach the mainland without ID checks, and that Schengen integrity remained fully guaranteed.

Almost everyone who entered Ceuta yesterday has now returned to Morocco.

It is not possible to travel from Ceuta or Melilla to mainland Spain without presenting identification at a police checkpoint. The integrity of the Schengen area is fully guaranteed. https://t.co/F2s3JWN4bF

— Embassy of Spain UK (@EmbSpainUK) July 31, 2026

The Guardia Civil's own association posted that Ceuta was "breathing again," with returns advancing little by little and normality returning thanks to security forces.

Ceuta vuelve a respirar.

? El retorno a Marruecos avanza poco a poco y la ciudad recupera su pulso. La normalidad también es una victoria.

?? Gracias a los guardias civiles, policías y militares que han sostenido la frontera sur de Europa con entereza, sin descanso y sin un... pic.twitter.com/8uSyLQodw2

— AUGC Guardia Civil ?? (@AUGC_Comunica) August 1, 2026

Locals on the ground immediately called it a lie. One Ceuta resident posted that around 50,000 invaders remained, the city was collapsed, and the official numbers were pure spin. Video filmed that same afternoon showed streets still packed, nothing like the "most have left" story.

Por favor, necesito que difundáis esto:

Soy de Ceuta, y esto ES MENTIRA.

Quedan alrededor de 50mil inmigrantes en Ceuta, que no os engañen, fiaros de testimonios de persona de Ceuta.

La ciudad está colapsada.

Pronto os adjunto vídeo actual desmintiendo las cifras de @el_pais pic.twitter.com/P2SsD401yy

— Salva Ortega (@_SalvaOrtega) July 31, 2026

Just days earlier, we documented the initial invasion and the subsequent rampage through homes and streets.

The claim that the crisis simply evaporated overnight collapses under the weight of the footage still circulating.

While Madrid spun the returns, Moroccan migrants were filmed storming a public asylum centre in Ceuta. The CETI facility came under direct assault as the government continued insisting order had been restored.

?? | AHORA — Inmigrantes marroquíes están asaltando en estos momentos un asilo público en Ceuta, el CETI.

La situación sigue siendo de caos total. El gobierno de España miente. pic.twitter.com/hk9OUHon68

— Agustín Antonetti (@agusantonetti) July 31, 2026

Elsewhere, invaders smashed Christian graves and hurled the broken pieces at Spanish citizens. Locals fought back with whatever they could grab while police and military presence remained inadequate.

?MY GOD!!!!!

The Muslim invaders from Morocco are now SMASHING THE GRAVES of the people of Cueta and THROWING THE PIECES AT THE CITIZENS OF SPAIN.

Citizens are now FIGHTING BACK against the invaders with anything they can find.

WHERE IS THE SPANISH MILITARY?!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/Kit5ROSsyQ

— Matt Van Swol (@mattvanswol) July 31, 2026

Knives came out in the open. Migrants stabbed one another in the streets while Spanish residents stayed locked indoors, prisoners in their own city of roughly 80,000 people now overrun.

Questa e Ceuta oggi :" due immigrati marocchini si prendono a coltellete nella cittadina". Questi,per i buonisti, sono quelli che fanno i lavori che non facciamo piu e ci pagano le https://t.co/Xrryn1MRg3 andate a cagare. pic.twitter.com/rqo5IFFeT6

— il bianconero (@IlZebraapois) August 1, 2026

Cars belonging to locals were attacked simply for driving past and showing dissatisfaction. Grocery stores had to be fenced off and guarded by police to stop looting by the hungry crowds.

?? In Ceuta, Moroccan migrants are attacking cars of local residents driving past who express dissatisfaction that tens of thousands of outsiders have invaded their city. pic.twitter.com/uVywHRtmwQ

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 31, 2026

?? In Ceuta, grocery stores are being fenced off and guarded by police because hundreds of hungry migrants are waiting for a chance to loot them. pic.twitter.com/7fARl4FOz5

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 31, 2026

Vehicles burned at the border as the surge continued. Groups of military-age men, far from the "families and refugees" talking point, were filmed taking escalators and moving through the city with the swagger of occupation rather than desperation.

Several cars were set on fire on the border between Ceuta and Morocco as thousands of migrants have been storming the border fence pic.twitter.com/OEymoPVPww

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 31, 2026

Meet the doctors and engineers currently invading Spain... taking the down escalator to go up. pic.twitter.com/yO0IXx01xA

— I Meme Therefore I Am ?? (@ImMeme0) July 31, 2026

Live view of the "cultural enrichment" that just arrived in Spain pic.twitter.com/qyenDwTEOW

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) July 31, 2026

A morning drive through the "conquered" enclave captured the new normal: streets transformed, Spanish life subordinated.

A morning ride through conquered Cueta. pic.twitter.com/ADaAnvb8SD

— Tommy Robinson ?? (@TRobinsonNewEra) August 1, 2026

One clip captured the pure contempt: an invader brutally attacking a Spaniard. Another showed the broader pattern of violence and disorder that leftist outlets prefer to ignore.

GENOCIDE: Watch as Islamic invader stabs Spaniard in the neck. https://t.co/zNwiIu6jCp

— @amuse (@amuse) August 1, 2026

Muslim Invaders Turned Ceuta Into a THIRD WORLD Hellscape in 24 Hours

What was paradise just yesterday now looks like the country these criminals left.

Import the third world, become the third world. pic.twitter.com/nCYzGygMBO

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 31, 2026

A simple question cut through the spin: if these were genuine asylum seekers looking for safety and a better life, why the rampage, the attacks on civilians, the destruction of graves, and the open hostility?

Let me ask you this simple but direct question:

If you were a genuine asylum seeker seeking help and rescue for a better life, would you do this??????????????????????????????????????????????????? ? pic.twitter.com/ynKWpftWjB

— Benonwine (@benonwine) August 1, 2026

A hospital worker described axes and sticks in the streets, people entering homes, shops boarded up, and police turning on protesting Spaniards while the border remained porous.

Un conocido que trabaja en un hospital de Ceuta me escribe: hachas y palos en la calle, personas entrando en viviendas, comercios cerrados como el de su familia, y la policía cargando contra ceutíes que protestaban contra Sánchez mientras la frontera seguía abierta. Los datos le... pic.twitter.com/BPCnrYassv

— Martin Varsavsky (@martinvars) July 31, 2026

Estimates put the influx at 50,000 according to Interior, up to 60,000 according to Ceuta's own president, in a city of 84,000. Twenty-four bodies had already been recovered from the coast by that point. Sánchez visited for three hours, spoke alone without the local president, and left to shouts of resignation.

Spanish intelligence reportedly warned the government in advance, including details of rehearsals and coaches massing in the nearby Moroccan town of Castillejos. The warnings were ignored.

?? Spanish intel agencies reportedly warned the government of the Moroccan invasion of Ceuta well in advance, including rehearsals that were taking place before the event.

They also told them about a large number of coaches that had arrived in the Moroccan town of Castillejos,...

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) August 1, 2026

The fury was not confined to Ceuta. Thousands of Spaniards gathered outside PSOE headquarters in Madrid, chanting against Pedro Sánchez and rejecting the government's handling of the invasion.

????? | ESPAÑA DESPIERTA: Miles de patriotas se congregaron frente a la sede del PSOE en Madrid para repudiar al Gobierno de España al grito de "Pedro Sánchez, ¡hijo de puta!", tras la invasión de miles de magrebíes en Ceuta. pic.twitter.com/bJ9bjTBr85

— La Derecha Diario (@laderechadiario) July 31, 2026

Instead of securing the border, Sánchez went on the offensive against other European leaders. In a letter to EU heads of government he denounced those who had tightened controls as "selfish."

Spain's socialist prime minister has denounced "selfish" European leaders who ramped up their border controls in response to the sudden migrant surge in Ceuta.

Pedro Sánchez wrote a letter to the heads of EU nations calling for an emergency meeting after Italy suspended free... pic.twitter.com/zWMfJIBTmD

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) August 1, 2026

Italy suspended free movement under the Schengen agreement with Spain for a month. Meloni made clear that uncontrolled illegal migration threatens Europe's security and that Italy would not stand by. France ramped up checks on its Spanish border, planning a fivefold increase in officers.

Sánchez wrote: "In the current international context, the European Union cannot afford this kind of selfish, polarising and unlawful reaction." He demanded an emergency meeting of interior ministers. Spain's interior minister echoed the line, asking for "greater solidarity, more responsibility and less selfishness" while reminding critics of Lampedusa.

The European Commission confirmed no migrants had reached the mainland or the wider Schengen zone, yet the political fallout continued. At least 67 people died in the crossings according to Spanish figures released on Saturday. A 500-metre floating barrier was being installed at the Tarajal breakwater. Soldiers broadcast messages in Arabic telling the young men to go home.

The numbers and the images do not match the soothing government script. Ceuta's president estimated 60,000 entries. Returns were real, but thousands remained and the disorder persisted.

Footage kept arriving of assaults, desecration, violenace, and a city that had not simply returned to normal overnight. Leftist voices seized on the official talking points to deny the obvious: this was a coordinated mass breach that exposed the fragility of open-border policies and the willingness of socialist governments to prioritise ideology over their own citizens' safety.

Will you be posting about their return to Morocco and the raft that none have reached the European mainland? Or does that not fit your narrative. Vote Binface https://t.co/Wo74tefxsM

— ALASTAIR CAMPBELL (@campbellclaret) August 1, 2026

When a government treats a sudden invasion of tens of thousands of military-age men as a temporary inconvenience that can be papered over with press releases, the people on the ground pay the price.

What is happening in Ceuta is the direct result of years of failed deterrence, amnesty incentives, and the refusal to treat borders as non-negotiable. Europe's more serious leaders are already acting. Sánchez prefers to lecture them for defending their own populations.

The footage keeps proving who is living in reality and who is not.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 04:55

Trump's Venezuela Oil Push Hits A Roadblock

Venezuela's long-awaited oil revival has been slower than many in Washington anticipated., according to the Wall Street Journal.

Seven months after Nicolás Maduro's removal, negotiations between the interim government and major U.S. energy companies remain bogged down, with no landmark investment deals despite the country's vast crude reserves.

Rather than rushing back into the country, firms such as ExxonMobil and Chevron are taking a cautious approach. Executives remain wary of Venezuela's history of nationalizing foreign assets, unresolved compensation disputes dating back to the Chávez era, and lingering political uncertainty. As Francisco Monaldi of Rice University's Baker Institute put it, "They have been burned twice," making boards reluctant to approve multibillion-dollar projects unless the opportunity is exceptionally attractive.

Photo: WSJ

WSJ writes that competition has also complicated negotiations. Several companies are pursuing the same high-quality assets in the Orinoco Belt and Monagas state while pressing for more favorable tax, regulatory, and ownership terms. According to José Ignacio Hernández of Aurora Macro Strategies, enthusiasm has yet to translate into commitments: "You have a very successful open house with 100 people attending, but then nobody calls."

Chevron has continued expanding production through operational improvements, lifting output to nearly 300,000 barrels per day, but it has stopped short of committing fresh billions to new developments. Exxon has reportedly scaled back some of its interest after failing to secure enough of the assets it wanted and facing enormous costs to rehabilitate previously nationalized infrastructure.

Venezuela's oil production has climbed to roughly 1.07 million barrels per day, up from about 937,000 last year, but it remains a fraction of the country's late-1990s peak. With the majors proceeding cautiously, the Trump administration has increasingly looked to smaller independent producers that can move faster and provide immediate capital. Several privately held firms have already signed preliminary agreements, though analysts caution that fully developing Venezuela's heavy-oil resources will ultimately require the deep pockets, long investment horizons, and technical expertise that only the largest international oil companies can provide.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 04:15

Trump Says "Perimeters Of A Deal Reached" With Iran To Reopen Hormuz After Call With Saudi Crown Prince

The past few days have been tense. Although no US strikes were launched from Friday night into Saturday morning and the Gulf region remained quiet early Sunday, anticipation surrounding President Trump's next move is keeping energy traders and Gulf governments on edge. The big concern is that another round of strikes could trigger a wider regional conflict, particularly as the Iranian-backed Houthis have reactivated offensive operations in the southern Red Sea in recent weeks.

The Trump administration and Department of War may pursue de-escalation from here after Trump wrote on Truth Social late Saturday night: "We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to."

"Tonight from 9:36 PM to 9:37 PM the S&P 500 price on Hyperliquid spiked bigly, and I couldn't figure out why... ...then Trump posted his TACO @ 10:05 PM. THEN I understood why," X user Stanphyl Capital wrote.

That de-esclation pathway was followed by a new signal early Sudnay from Saudi Press Agency, Saudi Arabia's official state news agency, stating that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held a call with President Trump, discussing the "necessity of prioritizing dialogue to de-escalate tensions and the importance of exerting all possible efforts to achieve a truce that paves the way for diplomatic solutions that yield positive results for preserving the security and stability of the region and prevent it from being drawn into a wider conflict whose repercussions would affect regional and international security and stability."

The MbS-Trump call was first reported by Axios, which got the scoop on Saturday evening:

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke to President Trump on Saturday and expressed concern over his plans for massive new strikes against Iran, according to two U.S. officials and a third source with knowledge of the call.

. . .

Such an attack could lead to an unprecedented escalation in the five-month war, which has repeatedly paused as Trump opened the door to negotiations — only to resume when those diplomatic efforts failed.

Iran has threatened to retaliate by launching attacks against energy and infrastructure facilities in Israel and the Gulf countries

• The Saudis expressed concern and asked for clarity about the plan of action," one U.S. official told Axios.
• A second source with knowledge of the call said MBS urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the strikes.

Why the MBS-Trump conversation matters is that Saudi Arabia remains one of Washington's top Gulf region allies. Riyadh has heavily influenced Trump's Iran policy at previous inflection points and appears to have exerted similar influence in delaying or narrowing the next phase of US military action.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 04:15

Veteran strategist said an 'overwhelming majority' of Democrats agree as democratic socialism gains ground.

Moroccan authorities have blamed the recent migration influx that saw some 60,000 migrants pour into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta on social media and human trafficking.

Operation Blackout Takes Down 4 Of The 'Largest Scam Compounds On Earth': FBI

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The FBI announced on July 31 that it dismantled four of the “largest scam compounds on Earth” under Operation Blackout, seizing $15.2 billion in assets and freeing thousands of forced laborers.

Scam compounds provide the infrastructure to carry out large-scale online fraud operations and typically employ hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom are captives.

Operation Blackout freed thousands of trafficked workers, the FBI said in a post on X. In addition, roughly 10,000 Americans were reportedly saved from losing their life savings.

The agency did not specify a timeline for the event.

The FBI also built new international partnerships to fight off fraud and trafficking activities, the agency said.

Workers gather with their luggage after leaving a suspected scam center compound in Sihanoukville, Cambodia. Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP via Getty Images

In a July 21 post on X, FBI director Kash Patel said that the seizure of $15.2 billion under Operation Blackout was made over a 16-month period. Dozens of scam centers were dismantled and hundreds of criminals arrested, with multiple human trafficking compounds eliminated. Patel listed four operations carried out as part of dismantling scam operations.

Operation Zephyr Exodus involved the takedown of Cambodia’s Prince Group, a transnational criminal organization.

This led to the seizure of a record 127,000 Bitcoin, worth roughly $15 billion at the time.

Operation Sand Dollar, conducted in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, dismantled nine scam compounds, arrested more than 300 individuals, seized around $300 million, confiscated thousands of electronic devices, and freed thousands of trafficked workers. It was conducted through a joint operation with China’s Ministry of Public Security and the Dubai Police, Patel said.

In Operation Compound Fracture, authorities seized domains and malicious apps linked to scam activities.

And under the Shunda Compound Takedown, the FBI and Thai law enforcement carried out a joint operation that disrupted a network responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars in losses to victims.

Last month, the Treasury Department sanctioned 35 individuals and entities linked to the Prince Group, including a Cambodia-based conglomerate that allegedly provided laundering services for scam proceeds.

U.S. authorities estimate Americans to have lost at least $10 billion to scam operations running from Southeast Asia in 2024, a 66 percent jump from the previous year, the department said.

According to the FBI’s Internet Crime Report 2025, the agency’s Internet Crime Complaint Center received more than a million complaints last year. Total losses from these complaints amounted to over $20.87 billion, a 26 percent increase from the previous year.

Scam Compound Trafficking

In a July 28 statement, the United Nations’ International Organization for Migration (IOM) highlighted the issue of trafficking victims being forced to work in scam centers.

Victims are initially lured through fake job advertisements that promise legitimate work abroad. Once they arrive, they are stripped of documents, locked inside compounds, and forced to carry out online scam operations under threat of violence and other measures. Many survivors report being subjected to sexual abuse, solitary confinement, starvation, and torture, IOM said.

“People trapped in scam compounds are victims of trafficking, forced to commit crimes through violence, threats and coercion. They deserve protection, not punishment,” IOM Director General Amy Pope said in the statement.

“We must work together to support survivors, stop traffickers and close the gaps these criminal networks exploit. No country can tackle this alone,” Pope said.

During 2022–2025, the IOM assisted over 3,500 trafficked victims of forced criminality in Southeast Asia. These people were from 39 nations, mostly from India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Kenya, and Ethiopia.

On Sept. 30 last year, a group of lawmakers introduced the Scam Compound Accountability and Mobilization (SCAM) Act that aims to counter foreign scam operations, according to an Oct. 1, 2025, statement from the office of Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

The bill also seeks to hold transnational criminal organizations that engage in human trafficking, forced criminality, and cyber scams targeting Americans accountable for their actions.

The legislation was passed by the Senate in December and sent to the House of Representatives the same month. However, no significant action has been taken on the bill since then.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 03:30

The owners said they want to create a platform that feels different from current social media platforms.

Logistical Nightmare Unfolds As Rhine Plunges Toward Record Low

The Rhine, one of Europe's most vital arteries for transporting industrial goods, has fallen to one of its owest level since the drought-stricken summer of 2018. The resulting loss of shipping capacity is driving up freight costs and raising the risk of supply disruptions for iron ore, coal, chemicals, petroleum products and other commodities moving through Europe's industrial heartland.

The Rhine water level gauge at Kaub, a key chokepoint on the Rhine for shipments heading to southern Germany and Switzerland, has fallen to just 25 centimeters, the lowest reading since the drought-stricken summer of 2018.

Zwei eindrucksvolle Bilder bei Rüdesheim bzw. Bingen (Nahemündung) mit dem Rekordniedrigwasser am Rhein und auffällig großen Sandbänken. Danke an Christian. /LD pic.twitter.com/9GC4c3zv6y

— Kachelmannwetter (@Kachelmannwettr) August 2, 2026

At levels of 40 to 50 centimeters, vessels can carry only about 20% of their normal cargo, according to Germany's Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration. The resulting loss of transport capacity is driving up freight costs and increasing the risk of supply disruptions of critical commodities.

Some Rhine Freight Rates Rose 400% in Two Months as Water Levels Fell

The benchmark freight rate per tonne for oil and liquid-bulk barges from Rotterdam to German cities south of the Kaub chokepoint rose about 400% in two months, reaching a record on the chart. Cargo demand did… pic.twitter.com/Yht6yiSWXQ

— LearnInvest (@LearnInvest2026) August 2, 2026

German federal data compiled by ETH Zurich shows that a drop below 24 centimeters, which is in the forecast for this week, would mark the lowest level since records began in 1880.

JPMorgan analyst Chetan Udeshi told clients that with Rhine water levels dropping to 2018 levels, this may spark a drag across Germany's chemicals industry:

BASF/K+S/Sector read: Rhine water levels dropped to multi-year lows in August and are now comparable to 2H18 levels, when Germany-exposed chemicals saw material operational/logistics headwinds (see our previous report here). It remains to be seen whether low water levels will persist for as long as they did in 2H18; if they do, this would represent an additional downside risk to 2H26 expectations, albeit likely smaller given post-2018 mitigation. As illustrated in Figure 1Rhine watrlve Kaubmsring potand Figure 2Probailty-weghd 14-ayforecst forRhine watrlve Kaubsof 31July, at the Kaub gauge, Rhine levels have fallen to multi-year lows and are now similar to Oct–Nov 2018, when disruptions to barge logistics and wider supply chains hit German/European chemicals; the two most impacted names then were BASF and K+S. Evonik and to a lesser extent Brenntag had also flagged earnings headwinds in 2H18.

BASF saw the most adverse impact of ~€250m in 3Q-4Q18 (~2.5% of 2018 adj EBITDA) due to its reliance on the Rhine for transportation infrastructure and plant cooling. Since then, BASF has implemented a number of mitigation measures, including diversifying its logistics network to be able to switch to alternative transport modes (e.g. rail), if needed, as well as expanding its fleet to include vessels that can still operate in the Rhine at low water levels. On the last week's 2Q26 conference call, BASF's CEO commented that thanks to the mitigation measures, this time the company does not expect to see a negative impact of the magnitude seen in 2H26.

K+S relied on the Rhine for saline water disposal, which became impossible due to reduced water levels; as a result, K+S had to halt production at parts of its largest site in Germany, Werra, for almost two months. This translated into a ~€95m adverse impact (~15% of 2018 EBITDA). Since 2018, K+S has invested in improving the resiliency and sustainability of its wastewater disposal at the Werra site, including as part of the ongoing Werra 2060 project capex, which should help to more than halve the amount of process water for the Werra site. In its 2025 annual report, K+S commented that through the system of wastewater storage basins at the company's disposal, as well as other measures, it had "significantly increased the flexibility of wastewater management at the Werra plant in recent years, to fully maintain production at the Werra plant even in a hydrologically dry year”. The company also noted, however, that in the case of an extreme drought comparable to that seen in the summer of 2022 and lasting over a long period of time, resulting in low levels in the Werra river, there could still be a risk of a temporary production interruption. Hence, subject to the duration of dry conditions, the impact on production at K+S cannot be ruled out, although we would expect it to be much reduced compared to the 2018 situation reflecting the improved wastewater management infrastructure.

Rhine Level At Kaub

Kaub Level Forecast

Barclays analyst Katie Richards recently told clients to have Rhine water levels "on their radars."

Here's more from Richards:

Our view: Investors should have the Rhine on their radar. Rhine-exposed chemical stocks historically underperformed during the 2018 and 2022 low-water episodes. What makes 2026 noteworthy is that the Rhine is entering the summer from an unusually weak position, with water levels already near multi-year lows for this point in the year and further risk from El Niño. However, unlike 2018, producers have invested heavily in mitigation measures, and these appeared to have proven effective during the 2022 drought when disruption was limited despite challenging conditions. As a result, we see the risk today as more skewed towards higher logistics costs and supply-chain inefficiencies than a repeat of the severe operational disruption experienced in 2018.Our concern would increase if Kaub water levels were to spend a prolonged period around 40cm or below, a level broadly consistent with or more severe than the 2022 drought, when financial impacts across the sector were largely negligible (versus ~100cm today).

The fallout of summer heat across the continent has spread beyond freight markets. Heat waves have forced France to curb output from its nuclear fleet because rising river temperatures could fuel wildfires.

In Hungary, the government has urged households and businesses to conserve electricity and water after demand overwhelmed supplies in Szentendre, leaving thousands without drinking water. Meanwhile, Italy's Po River has fallen below historic lows.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 02:45

“All of the sudden, a guy comes up behind us, and he’s very calmly, nonchalantly saying there’s a moose in front of you guys, you might want to move,” Carleigh Smith told the outlet.

Saudi Arabia Has Five Points Of Leverage Over The US

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

It probably won’t ever muster up the political will to use them, however, but the possibility always remains.

Trump recently surprised the Saudis by demanding that they recognize Israel as the precondition for the US implementing their newly signed nuclear energy deal, which wasn’t part of the agreement. This follows him humiliating Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman earlier in the spring by claiming that he’d been “kissing my ass” for rejuvenating the US economy. His mistreatment of the Kingdom and its de facto leader is unexpected since the US relies on them in the following five ways:

1. Indirectly Projecting US Influence Across The Ummah

Saudi Arabia wields tremendous influence across the international Muslim community, or Ummah, due to its role as the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques. It’s also been a rock-solid American ally since the end of World War II. By almost always aligning with the US’ foreign policy goals, Saudi Arabia indirectly projects its influence across the Ummah, in some cases even more effectively than the US itself since it’s a fellow Muslim country that many Muslim governments and societies alike look to for guidance.

2. Investing Hundreds Of Billions Of Dollars Into The US

Saudi Arabia is globally known for its wealth, which it once again reminded everyone of when it pledged to invest a whopping $600 billion into the US during Trump’s trip to the Kingdom in May 2025. Few countries are capable of doing that. Even more importantly, the previously hyperlinked readout from the White House notes that at least $100 billion will go into the American tech industry, thus helping it to compete with China. The strategic significance of such Saudi investments into the US can’t be overstated.

3. Purchasing Billions Of Dollars Of American Arms

Building upon the above, nearly $142 billion of the $600 billion that Saudi Arabia agreed to invest into the US will go to the military-industrial complex, which is an astronomical amount. To put Saudi Arabia’s purchase of American arms into perspective, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s latest report noted that Saudi Arabia was the US’ largest client and the third-largest importer in the world from 2021-2025. This immensely benefits the American military-industrial complex.

4. Serving As The Core Of The “Islamic NATO”

One of this year’s trends that began to materialize late last year is the gradual formation of what’s been called the “Islamic NATO”, which is comprised of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkiye. They’re all either NATO members like Turkiye or “Major Non-NATO Allies” like the rest. Whether the “Islamic NATO” is ever formalized or just remains a consultative platform, it’s still expected to serve as the means of advancing American military-security interests across the Ummah as the US “Leads From Behind”.

5. Preventing The Rise Of The “Petroyuan”

One of the pillars of American hegemony is the petrodollar, which Saudi Arabia helped the US institutionalize, and its continued participation in this system prevents the rise of the hypothetical “petroyuan” that many members of the Alt-Media Community have speculated about for years. So long as Saudi Arabia remains committed to the petrodollar, the “petroyuan” will remain a thought exercise, thus indefinitely preserving what’s arguably one of the most important pillars of American hegemony.

These five ways in which the US relies on Saudi Arabia provide the Kingdom with leverage if it ever musters up the political will to wield these advantages. For example, it could stop indirectly projecting US influence across the Ummah, radically reduce its investments in the US economy and its purchase of US arms, refuse to allow the “Islamic NATO” to become the US’ proxy, and/or replace the petrodollar with the “petroyuan”. It probably won’t do any of this, however, but the possibility always remains.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 02:00

The Mets have sold off another piece of their bullpen.

Blanche appeared to meet request to limit the scope of an IRS audit immunity deal that covered the Trump family.

Cuba's electricity grid collapsed late on Sunday, the state-owned grid ​operator said, plunging the island of ‌about 10 million people into darkness as blackouts become more frequent.