Aggregator

Luis Arraez will finish the season with a contender.

"Temporal wasting" is the latest side effect that prematurely ages weight loss drug users, and has doctors concerned.

The Angels traded right-handed pitcher Jose Soriano to the Blue Jays on Monday morning ahead of the MLB trade deadline, The Post’s Jon Heyman confirmed. Los Angeles received Double-A shortstop Arjun Nimmala, Double-A outfielder Eddie Micheletti and Rookie Ball pitcher Angel Rivero. It is a surprising move from the Blue Jays, who appeared to be...

Key Events This Week: Jobs, ISMs, Fed Speakers And More Earnings On Deck

The week ahead will be dominated by the US labor market, with the JOLTS report tomorrow, the ADP employment survey on Wednesday, and building up to Friday’s July employment report. Beyond the US, investors will be watching Swiss inflation today, Swedish inflation on Thursday, German activity data throughout the week (culminating in trade and industrial production figures on Friday), Chinese PMI releases on Wednesday ahead of trade data on Friday, and Japanese wage data and BoJ communications on Wednesday before household spending figures on Friday. Meanwhile, earnings season remains in full swing.

Looking at the US and then the rest of the world in more detail, attention will center on whether incoming data reinforce the view that the US labor market remains resilient. DB's economists expect Friday’s July payrolls report to show employment growth of +65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading, while private payrolls are also expected to rise by +65k after +49k previously. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2%, although risks are skewed towards a rounding up to 4.3% if labor force participation rebounds after last month’s sharp decline. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by +0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from June, while average hours worked are forecast to hold at 34.3 hours. If realized, those outcomes would leave economists’ payroll proxy for nominal income growth unchanged at 4.4% year-on-year.

Before Friday’s report, several labor market indicators will help shape expectations. The JOLTS report (tomorrow) and the ADP employment survey (Wednesday) will be closely watched, with economists expecting ADP employment growth of +65k after +98k previously. Activity indicators will also feature prominently. The ISM manufacturing index (today) is expected to improve to 53.9 from 53.3, while the ISM services index (Wednesday) is forecast at 54.5, little changed from June’s 54.0. Productivity data (Thursday) should provide another read on underlying economic momentum, with our economists forecasting Q2 nonfarm productivity growth of +3.0% and unit labour costs rising by +0.5%.

The policy backdrop remains important. The Fed left rates unchanged last week, but three officials dissented in favor of a hike, highlighting continuing concerns about inflation. Investors will therefore pay close attention to remarks from Governor Cook (Wednesday), as well as speeches from Schmid (Tuesday), Musalem (Thursday) and Barkin (Friday), for any indication of how officials are interpreting the latest data. Our economists continue to expect two further 25bp rate increases this year, in September and December.

Outside the US, Europe’s focus will be split between inflation and activity data. Switzerland releases July CPI today, while Sweden follows with its July inflation report on Thursday. Germany will publish a series of key June indicators throughout the week, including retail sales (today), factory orders (Thursday), and trade and industrial production figures (Friday). Elsewhere, France releases Q2 wage data on Thursday, while euro area producer prices (Wednesday) and retail sales (Thursday) are also upcoming.

In Asia, after China’s private PMI surveys began with manufacturing data today, this continues with services on Wednesday, before attention turns to July trade figures and foreign reserves on Friday. In Japan, investors will monitor labour cash earnings (Wednesday) and household spending (Friday) for evidence on domestic demand and wage momentum. The Bank of Japan will also publish the minutes of its June meeting on Wednesday.

Corporate earnings remain another major theme. In the US, reports are due from Palantir (today), SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, McDonald’s and Toyota (tomorrow), before attention shifts to Eli Lilly, Walt Disney and Uber (Wednesday).

Source: Earnings Whispers

European highlights include Novo Nordisk and Siemens Energy (Wednesday), followed by Siemens and Rheinmetall (Thursday), while Japan’s reporting calendar includes SoftBank and Nintendo (Thursday).

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday August 3

• Data: US July ISM index, total vehicle sales, June construction spending, Germany June retail sales, Italy July new car registrations, budget balance, Switzerland July CPI, China July RatingDog manufacturing PMI
• Earnings: Palantir, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Vertex, Marriott

Tuesday August 4

• Data: US June trade balance, factory orders, JOLTS report, Japan July monetary base, France June budget balance YTD, Italy June retail sales, Canada June international merchandise trade, July manufacturing PMI
• Earnings: SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, HSBC, Merck & Co, Toyota, Arista Networks, Amgen, McDonald's, Gilead Sciences, Booking, Pfizer, BP, Spotify, Cummins, Marathon Petroleum, Emerson Electric, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, TransDigm, Apollo, Energy Transfer, Bayer

Wednesday August 5

• Data: US July ADP report, ISM services, UK July new car registrations, official reserves changes, Japan June labor cash earnings, France June industrial production, Italy July services PMI, Eurozone June PPI, China July RatingDog services PMI, New Zealand Q2 labour force survey
• Central banks: BoJ minutes of the June meeting, Fed’s Cook speaks
• Earnings: Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Sandisk, Walt Disney, Shopify, Siemens Energy, Uber, AppLovin, CVS Health, McKesson, Infineon, MercadoLibre, Phillips 66, Glencore, DoorDash, Honeywell Aerospace, Occidental Petroleum, Medline, eBay, Block, Axon, Sandoz, Kraft Heinz, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, Fresenius, Global Payments, Vonovia, Figma

Thursday August 6

• Data: US Q2 nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs, June wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, UK July construction PMI, Germany June factory orders, July construction PMI, France Q2 wages, Italy June industrial production, Eurozone June retail sales, Canada July services PMI, Sweden July CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s economic bulletin, Fed’s Musalem speaks
• Earnings: Siemens, SoftBank, DBS, Deutsche Telekom, ConocoPhillips, Zurich Insurance Group, Howmet Aerospace, Constellation Energy, Cloudflare, Datadog, Airbnb, Generali, Merck KGaA, Warner Bros Discovery, Nintendo, Rheinmetall, Cheniere Energy, Swiss Re, Diageo, Commerzbank

Friday August 7

• Data: US July jobs report, NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, June consumer credit, Japan June household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany June trade balance, industrial production, France June current account balance, trade balance, Canada July labour force survey, China July foreign reserves, trade balance
• Central banks: Fed’s Barkin speaks
• Earnings: Allianz, Munich Re, Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

* * * 

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data release this week is the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governors Cook and Bowman.

Monday, August 3 

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, July final (consensus 53.8, last 53.8)
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, July (GS 54.3, consensus 53.9, last 53.3):We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index increased 1.0pt to 54.3 in July, reflecting a sharp improvement in regional manufacturing surveys—our manufacturing survey tracker increased by 1.7pt to 56.7 in July—that is partly offset by a headwind from residual seasonality.
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, June (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%)
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, July (GS 16.8mn, consensus 16.3mn, last 16.5mn)

Tuesday, August 4 

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, June (GS -$73.0bn, consensus -$73.0bn, last -$77.6bn)
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, June (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last -1.3%)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, June (GS 7,300k, consensus 7,501k, last 7,594k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings declined to 7.3mn in June based on the signal from online measures of job postings from Indeed and LinkUp.
• 08:15 PM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak on monetary policy and the agricultural economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Agricultural Economic Summit. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On July 16, Schmid said that “though [the June CPI] data showed an encouraging deceleration, it would be premature to put too much weight on a single data point.” He also explained that he is “uncomfortable ever assuming that a burst of inflation is likely to be temporary.”

Wednesday, August 5

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, July (GS +65k, consensus +68k, last +98k)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, July final (consensus 53.6, last 53.6)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, July (GS 55.0, consensus 54.5, last 54.0): We estimate that the ISM services index increased by 1.0pt to 55.0 in July, reflecting the increase in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+1.5pt to 54.4).
• 04:05 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will discuss the economic outlook at the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation 2026 Economic Luncheon. Speech text is expected. On July 15, Cook noted that “the risks from high inflation concern me more at this time,” adding that “rising core goods prices underscore the fact that the recent acceleration in inflation is not only an energy price story.”
• 08:35 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will deliver keynote remarks at the Economic and Social Research Institute International Conference in Tokyo.

Thursday, August 6 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 1 (GS 205k, consensus 202k, last 197k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 25 (consensus 1,783k, last 1,782k); 
• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q2 preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.3%); Unit labor costs, Q2 preliminary (GS +2.1%, consensus +2.2%, last +1.8%)
• 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, June final (last +0.3%)
• 05:30 PM St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will deliver a speech and participate in a moderated discussion at the Center for Public Policy Debate in São Paolo. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On July 31, Musalem said that he has “expressed a preference” for raising rates at the July FOMC meeting given that “there definitely are very large and meaning supply shocks playing out in the global and US economy…and persistent demand pressures in the economy.” He further noted that “earlier, incremental, gradual interest-rate action is preferable, less costly, and less disruptive than potentially later, larger, and abrupt actions.”

Friday, August 7 

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, July (GS +75k, consensus +85k, last +57k); Private payroll employment, July (GS +70k, consensus +83k, last +49k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), July (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Labor force participation rate, July (GS 61.7%, consensus 61.6%, last 61.5%); Unemployment rate, July (GS 4.3%, consensus 4.2%, last 4.2%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 75k in July, reflecting a middling signal from alternative data. On the positive side, we expect a small incremental boost from World Cup-related hiring, which did not begin to unwind until shortly after the July reference period. We expect this boost to show up in industries such as leisure and hospitality. Additionally, we expect a modest 5k increase in government payrolls, reflecting the stabilization in government job openings. On the negative side, July payrolls have missed consensus expectations in recent years and have been coupled with large negative revisions to job growth in prior  months. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month in July, reflecting neutral calendar effects. We estimate that the unemployment rate rebounded 0.1pp to 4.3% in July, reflecting a stabilization in continuing claims but potential  upward pressure from the reversal of June’s large decline in participation that applied modest downward pressure on the unemployment rate via compositional effects (i.e., the June decline in participation was concentrated on cohorts that have unemployment rates that are slightly higher than the national average).
• 10:00 AM Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will participate in a fireside chat on the economy, leadership, and the evolving role of the Federal Reserve with the National Association for Business Economics. Q&A is expected. On July 31, Barkin said that it was “a close call” on whether interest rates are high enough.

Saturday, August 8 

12:45 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak in a virtual fireside chat for the 2026 CEO and Senior Management Summit and Annual Meeting. Q&A is expected.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 09:49

Paramount CEO David Ellison was spotted at Disneyland as his company gears up for its antitrust battle.

The problem is, my gun only fired about 50% of the time.

The problem is, my gun only fired about 50% of the time.

An old Hollywood media beef is boiling over again after former Variety scribe Jeff Sneider reignited his once-epic feud with Deadline's Mike Fleming.

For movie theater operators across America, if feels like their business has once again found its footing after challenges from Covid. 

Hate crimes have surged in the Big Apple this year under divisive, anti-Israel Mayor Zohran Mamdani – with more than half of the incidents targeting Jewish New Yorkers, unsettling new crime statistics show.

Saylor's Strategy Shores Up Capital Structure With More Bitcoin, Stock Sales

Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. is plowing ahead with its pivot from relentlessly buying Bitcoin to focusing on shoring up its capital structure by raising its reserve via sales of the token and its own shares.

The company that grew to prominence with its years-long Bitcoin-accumulation tactic on Monday announced that it had last week completed a roughly $105 million sale of the digital asset, offloaded three million shares worth $291 million and repurchased some $81 million of of its STRC preferred shares, which are trading at a discount. Some of its common-stock sale went toward increasing its dollar-based reserve pool to $4 billion, while the the rest was used to repurchase the preferreds, according to to a filing.

Strategy increased its USD Reserve by $250M and repurchased $81M of $STRC. This increased USD Duration by 57 days to 2.3 years and tightened STRC’s BTC Credit by 5 bps. As of 8/2/26, we hold ₿842,138 in our BTC Reserve and $4.0B in our USD Reserve. $MSTR https://t.co/t7bGZJ8Q3o

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) August 3, 2026

At the end of June, Strategy announced an overhaul of its financing model, which had for years underpinned its Bitcoin-buying efforts. The shift gave management broader flexibility to sell Bitcoin, repurchase securities and preserve liquidity.

But starting a couple months ago QTR's Fringe Finance argued that the most important change in Strategy’s new bitcoin framework wasn’t the amount of bitcoin it was selling. It was the fact that the company had become willing to sell at all.

At the time, many investors dismissed that concern because initial sales were relatively small compared to Strategy’s massive treasury. My point then wasn’t about the few thousand bitcoin that had already been sold. It was about the more than 846,000 bitcoin that remained on the balance sheet. Once management demonstrated a willingness to monetize that treasury, the entire investment story changed.

Investors no longer had to ask whether Strategy could become a seller. They now had to ask when, why, and how often it would sell. This despite the fact that, for years, Strategy cultivated the image that its Bitcoin treasury was effectively untouchable.

The latest filing from Strategy this morning shows that over past week, Strategy sold another 1,637 bitcoin, reducing its holdings to 842,138 BTC. Once again, the amount isn’t enormous in the context of the company’s overall position, and the market has absorbed these sales without any obvious disruption. But that’s beside the point.

The notion that Strategy would be only a limited or occasional seller is fading quickly. The company is now selling bitcoin on a consistent basis. It has sold over 5,000 BTC over the last couple months, approaching 1% of its total holdings. In a market where they hold about 4% of the total supply, it’s not totally immaterial.

Regardless, it is no longer accurate to describe Strategy as a perpetual buyer that won’t sell, or might sell in extraordinary circumstances. Strategy is now a bitcoin seller, period. As Zero Hedge pointed out this morning, Strategy has sold BTC every month since June.

MSTR selling BTC every month since June https://t.co/ODBzViAzhY pic.twitter.com/0q33yUMlne

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 3, 2026

That represents an extraordinary reversal from the narrative management spent years constructing. Michael Saylor repeatedly portrayed bitcoin as an asset to accumulate indefinitely, while CEO Phong Le encouraged investors to judge the company based on Bitcoin Yield and bitcoin per share accretion. The entire premise was that Strategy would continue finding ways to acquire more bitcoin while avoiding selling existing holdings. That framework differentiated Strategy from virtually every other corporate bitcoin holder.

Today, that distinction has disappeared. Whether the weekly sales amount to 1,000 bitcoin or 10,000 bitcoin is almost secondary if you ask me. The important fact is that management has formally crossed a line investors were repeatedly told it never intended to cross. Psychology as it relates to Saylor, who had previously sold hundreds of millions of dollars in MSTR stock before it became the red-headed stepchild to STRC, will now always be tainted.

And ask many “maxis”: Saylor’s not doing any favors for bitcoin’s credibility, either. Just this weekend, he was posting an image of Strategy’s bitcoin buys with the caption “Bitcoin Drive engaged.” Come Monday morning, we got the notification of the sales.

Strategy spent years aggressively buying bitcoin at substantially higher prices than where it now trades. After insisting only months ago that it expected to remain a net buyer every quarter, the company is now selling bitcoin around $62,000. In practical terms, it seems like it’s buying the highs and selling the lows right now.

Management may argue there are sound capital allocation reasons for doing so, but investors shouldn’t lose sight of what they’re watching unfold. The company spent years telling shareholders bitcoin was effectively untouchable, only to begin monetizing those same holdings after prices declined from recent highs.

Management made clear that bitcoin is now being sold to raise dollars while simultaneously supporting its preferred stock. Presumably the objective is to strengthen confidence in the preferred securities, improve liquidity, and attract additional buyers into that part of the capital structure while waiting for Bitcoin to rebound.

From a corporate finance perspective, management may have perfectly rational reasons for making that decision. But it also confirms something much larger. Bitcoin is no longer functioning solely as a long-term treasury reserve. It has become a source of working capital used to support other pieces of Strategy’s increasingly complex capital structure.

In other words, Strategy is suffering from some mission-creep.

Perhaps the most important point is that all of this is happening while bitcoin has been relatively stable over the past several weeks. This isn’t occurring during a market panic or liquidity crisis. Bitcoin has largely traded sideways.

If Strategy is already comfortable selling bitcoin under relatively benign conditions, investors should naturally ask what happens if the market experiences a genuine drawdown. What happens if bitcoin falls another 20%? What happens if it falls 50%?

Suddenly the possibility of much larger sales becomes far more relevant because the company has already demonstrated that bitcoin is no longer off limits. Once that psychological barrier disappears, markets begin pricing not only what management is doing today, but what it could be forced or willing to do tomorrow.

I’ve written for years that the market has an uncanny ability to expose leverage. It rarely happens when everything is going well. It happens when liquidity tightens, volatility rises, and investors begin questioning assumptions that previously seemed unquestionable.

🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever

Strategy now sits at the center of a capital structure built on top of one of the world’s most volatile major assets. At the same time, much of today’s broader market remains characterized by aggressive leverage, financial engineering, and extraordinary optimism. None of that guarantees Strategy faces imminent problems. It doesn’t. But history suggests markets eventually test structures like this, and when they do, investors suddenly begin caring about risks that seemed irrelevant during the good times.

When I first wrote about this shift in early July, I argued that the significance wasn’t the 3,588 bitcoin Strategy had sold. It was the more than 846,000 bitcoin investors now knew could eventually become a source of liquidity. Every additional weekly filing reinforces that thesis. The individual transactions remain relatively modest, but together they establish a pattern that is becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss.

Strategy is no longer simply a buyer that occasionally sells under unusual circumstances. Selling bitcoin appears to have become part of its operating playbook.

I think my continued skepticism towards Saylor and Strategy is warranted. With that said, Strategy’s shift in business strategy was the key topic in a lengthy hourlong debate I had last month with my friend, bitcoin bull, and Strategy supporter Larry Lepard. So if you’re looking for both sides of this story and not just my unbridled skepticism, that’s a great debate to listen to.

--

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author. I cannot guarantee the accuracy of all facts and figures included in this article though I made my best effort to get them right. I have been wrong before and will be wrong again, and encourage you to always double check, do your own research and speak to a licensed financial professional.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I am attempting to no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is mostly done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 09:40

President Trump said he agreed to halt a planned attack against Iran – after the Islamic Republic and other Middle Eastern countries agreed to the framework of a peace deal. “The U.S.A. is locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran, at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not...

The Golden Globe winner was photographed cozying up to the private equity investor last month.

The Golden Globe winner was photographed cozying up to the private equity investor last month.

One week into training camp, a once-promising wide receiver has decided to give up on his football dream. Ja’Lynn Polk, a 2024 second-round pick who was selected No. 37 overall, has opted to abruptly retire from the NFL in a surprising move, as the 24-year-old was on the Saints’ roster. The Saints placed Polk on...

The deal is impressive (and so are the results).

Turns out, it wasn’t all just smoke when U.S. Soccer officials talked about bringing back Mauricio Pochettino for another cycle.

"That Was The Era Of The Kospi Mania": Korean Retail Traders Vow Not To Buy After Historic Rout

By Youkyung Lee, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

South Korea’s retail traders have long built a reputation for embracing risk. Yet July’s punishing reversal in the Kospi has rattled even this battle-hardened cohort, exposing the limits of their tolerance for volatility.

Some, like Kim Han-kyung, a Seoul resident in her late 30s, have resolved never to invest again, while others are comparing the $3.9 trillion market to a casino. Retail investors sold a record amount of Kospi shares on Friday despite a stunning 18% rebound. The gauge still capped a 22% loss for the month, the steepest since the global financial crisis.

Signs of frustration are everywhere on social media, with much of the blame being directed at the government. Encouraged by President Lee Jae Myung’s stock-market reform drive as well as the debut of single-stock leveraged ETFs offering the prospect of amplified gains, mom-and-pop traders piled about 78 trillion won ($54.2 billion) into Kospi shares over May and June, only to be sucker-punched by the index’s wild swings in July.

“That was the era of the Kospi mania,” said Kim, who started investing in Korean stocks for the first time in early May. “I got completely swept up in the frenzy. Now, I’m honestly scared. I’ve engraved two rules in my mind now. First: don’t invest in the Korean stock market. Second: follow the first rule.”

Trading in Kospi stocks was halted four times during the month, a record run for circuit-breaker suspensions, a tool rarely used before this year.

Ironically, the ETFs, introduced in late May to broaden investment opportunities for retail traders and stem outflows into similar products abroad, have become a lightning rod for criticism and blamed for amplifying volatility.

“The government put fuel into the fire with those leveraged ETFs,” said 40-year-old Lee Jung-min, who took a 50 million won loan with his apartment as a collateral to trade stocks. “I think it’s wrong how they turned the stock market into a casino.”

The dramatic unraveling in July followed months of optimism that had built around Korean equities. The market, home to two of the world’s memory chipmakers Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., remains one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI frenzy. The two stocks together make up more than 50% of the Kospi.

Samsung’s shares, which slumped 21% in July, are still up more than four times since the start of 2025. SK Hynix’s stock lost 35% but is up nearly 10 times in that period. The Kospi remains among the world’s best performers for 2026 despite the pullback. 

“Such volatility level still shows the market is not functioning normally,” said Kim Dong Woo, a 33-year-old who has been trading stocks for more than seven years.  

That said, it’s hard to argue that retail investors were unaware of the risks. Surging volatility had been a key feature of the Korean market, but the fear of missing out still drew many of them into concentrated bets on AI-linked heavyweights and margin-financed stock purchases.

“It’s a textbook example of what happens when a crowded trade meets leverage,” said Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro Group Ltd. in London. “Deleveraging is unlikely to be resolved in a matter of days, so investors should expect further sharp swings in technology and semiconductor stocks over the coming months,” she said, adding however that “this should not be mistaken for a wholesale collapse in the AI investment case.”

For their part, authorities have sprung into action. They temporarily halted new listings of single-stock leveraged ETFs in mid-July, and last week pledged additional measures to stabilize the stock market and curb retail access to such products. 

But many retail investors and market participants say the steps came too late. “The current environment presents a significant challenge” for the government, said Francis Tan, Asia chief strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management in Singapore.

Looking ahead, the AI boom that fueled Korea’s rally remains intact. Yet for many, July served as a lesson that the same forces capable of delivering outsized gains can also unravel swiftly. Rebuilding confidence among them may take longer than it does for the market to recoup losses.

“Retail investors are furious with the government,” said Jung Eui-jung, head of the Korean Stockholders’ Alliance, which has 64,000 members. “The level of anger and criticism is at its peak.”  

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 09:20

It's the two-in-one hair tool you didn't know you needed – until now.

Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House COVID-19 coordinator during the Biden administration, revealed Sunday that he has reversed himself and now favors the lab leak theory as the most plausible origin story for the pandemic.