CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Wednesday that Republicans have beaten their September polling in Ohio, Iowa and Michigan by wide margins in recent election cycles. If that pattern repeats in November, the GOP could keep control of the Senate despite current Democratic leads in all three states.
With just over a month before the midterms, Democrats have spent weeks enjoying a Senate map that looked impossible a year ago. Democrats need to net just four seats to win the majority. Republicans started the second half of President Donald Trump's term with what looked like a firm hold on the upper chamber. The Democrats' original plan was to defend Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire, then take Republican seats in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio. Then the map got bigger for the Democrats. Trump's falling approval numbers and voters' frustration with the economy gave Democrats openings in states the party had long given up on. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer took a victory lap almost immediately.
"We now have multiple paths for the majority," Schumer said. "We found new states - Iowa, Texas - which people a year ago weren't even paying attention to."
However, Michigan and Maine, two races Democrats once treated as near-certain wins, have become real contests. That forces the party to win more of its new territory just to stay even. Every "reach" state Schumer adds to the list has to make up for a seat that was supposed to be in the bag.
If Democrats win a majority in the Senate, they'll be able to block presidential nominees, including judges. A Democratic majority would turn every confirmation vote into a two-year war of attrition. However, some of the races Democrats are banking on going their way have a history of being wrong.
"But here's the question, what if the polls are wrong?" CNN anchor John Berman asked the network's chief data analyst Harry Enten.
"We've had really good Democratic polls coming out from Ohio, Michigan, Iowa," Enten told CNN. "And, you know, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times, I just have to ask the question, could it happen again?"
His data suggests it might. "In Iowa, where the Democrats have been getting really good polls, Republicans outperformed their September polls by nine points back in 2024. How about Ohio? Six points. How about Michigan? Five points."
He continued, "And I will note that the leads that the Democrats have in all of these races right now are under how much the GOP outperformed back in 2024."
Enten went back to 2018, Trump's first midterm, when Trump wasn't on the ballot, and the trend was the same.
"You can go back to Donald Trump's first midterm election. And it's the same exact story. Look at this, the GOP outperformed September polls in the major 2018 statewide races by six points in Iowa, six points in Ohio and eight points in Michigan."
The miss wasn't just a Trump-on-the-ballot effect. It showed up in every cycle Enten checked except 2022. "The bottom line is this," Enten said. "Over the last few cycles, whether it be 2018, 2016, 2020, 2024, Republicans have outperformed their September polls by at least five points in all these three states where Democrats right now are ahead, but not by a wide enough margin whereby if Republicans outperform their September polls again, it could become very, very interesting."
So, if the trend continues, the Senate map looks really good for Republicans.
"Let's just say that the GOP outperforms their Midwest polls, like they did in 2018 and 2024," Enten said. "Well, what do you get? You get a red Michigan. You get a red Ohio. You get a red Iowa. And all of a sudden, even if Democrats carry states like Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina and Alaska, well, guess what you get? You get a 50/50 Senate with J.D. Vance casting the tie-breaking vote."
The party could pull off a historic upset in Texas, hold Georgia, and flip North Carolina and Alaska, and still end up in the minority because three Midwestern states have behaved the same way in four of the last five cycles.
The prediction markets are less sure than the polls, according to Enten. "Well, the Kalshi prediction market says that Abdul El-Sayed is still a favorite in Michigan, but not an overwhelming one, 73 percent. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, 61 percent. That's basically a toss-up territory. And Josh Turek in Iowa, where he got a really good poll earlier this week, a 42 percent chance."
"In these midwestern Senate races, yes, Democrats have gotten good polls," Enten said. "But I would just say, hold on just a brief second here because history says, you know what, it might not end for them as well as the polls currently suggest it will."
Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 12:20Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times,
The University of California - Los Angeles (UCLA) School of Law allegedly denied admission to whites and Asians in favor of lower-performing black and Hispanic applicants, the Department of Justice announced Thursday.
Under federal Civil Rights Laws and a 2023 U.S. Supreme Court decision that ruled against affirmative action practices in university admissions, the public institution could lose federal funding if it doesn't take corrective actions, Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon said in an Oct. 1 news release.
"Like many of its peer institutions, UCLA Law School runs a two-tiered admissions system whose academic bar for acceptance shifts up or down depending on the color of your skin," she said. "The use of race as a thumb on the scale that helps or disadvantages any student is illegal. The Department will continue to enforce equal treatment under the law everywhere - including in our nation's law schools."
The Department of Justice (DOJ) reviewed student application materials for the incoming classes of 2023, 2024, and 2025, which included personal statements and essay prompts that allegedly are designed to "elicit information about race."
Additionally, UCLA Law admissions staff allegedly instructed prospective students how to reveal their race in those sections of the application. This happened during race-based recruitment events, such as the Diversity Admissions Open House, Dhillon said.
Investigators also said they found that the university rejected white and Asian applicants who had the same LSAT scores as admitted black and Hispanic candidates. For 2024 and 2025 combined, half of the admitted black applicants had LSAT scores that were at or below 90 percent of the admitted white applicants, according to the news release.
The DOJ also reviewed internal university documents that Dhillon said showed intent to discriminate. This includes a statement allegedly from an assistant dean: "We are proud of the fact that 58 percent of this year's incoming class are students of color."
Another document from an assistant dean of admissions allegedly said, "If information about your ethnic/racial background would be helpful for law schools to gain a better sense of who you are, include it."
Dhillon said in a letter to UCLA officials disclosing the findings of her investigation that the University of California higher education system doubled down on its commitment to affirmative action practices after the 2023 Supreme Court decision, issuing a memo from the president's office that read, "student diversity remains a top priority for the University of California."
The DOJ examined seven years of UCLA Law applicant data, from 2019 to 2025, and found that the university did not "meaningfully change its admissions practices" in response to the Supreme Court decisions.
The federal agency recently announced similar investigative findings at UCLA Medical School, UC David Medical School, UC San Diego Medical School, George Washington University Medical School, Yale University Medical School, Duke University Law School, and UC Berkeley Law School.
Dhillon said her agency will engage in settlement negotiations with UCLA to bring the university's admissions practices into compliance. If those efforts fail, the DOJ will file a lawsuit.
UCLA Law School issued a statement on Oct. 1, maintaining that its admissions practices are not unlawful or discriminatory.
"UCLA School of Law is committed to making admissions decisions in compliance with all applicable laws, including the California Constitution and Proposition 209, federal statutes, and the U.S. Constitution," the statement said. "Students are admitted through a comprehensive, merit-based review process that considers each applicant's achievements and experiences. We are confident in our process."
Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2026 - 12:00