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Trump Says "Perimeters Of A Deal Reached" With Iran To Reopen Hormuz After Call With Saudi Crown Prince

Zero Rss
5 days 17 hours ago
Trump Says "Perimeters Of A Deal Reached" With Iran To Reopen Hormuz After Call With Saudi Crown Prince

The past few days have been tense. Although no US strikes were launched from Friday night into Saturday morning and the Gulf region remained quiet early Sunday, anticipation surrounding President Trump's next move is keeping energy traders and Gulf governments on edge. The big concern is that another round of strikes could trigger a wider regional conflict, particularly as the Iranian-backed Houthis have reactivated offensive operations in the southern Red Sea in recent weeks.

The Trump administration and Department of War may pursue de-escalation from here after Trump wrote on Truth Social late Saturday night: "We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to."

"Tonight from 9:36 PM to 9:37 PM the S&P 500 price on Hyperliquid spiked bigly, and I couldn't figure out why... ...then Trump posted his TACO @ 10:05 PM. THEN I understood why," X user Stanphyl Capital wrote.

That de-esclation pathway was followed by a new signal early Sudnay from Saudi Press Agency, Saudi Arabia's official state news agency, stating that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held a call with President Trump, discussing the "necessity of prioritizing dialogue to de-escalate tensions and the importance of exerting all possible efforts to achieve a truce that paves the way for diplomatic solutions that yield positive results for preserving the security and stability of the region and prevent it from being drawn into a wider conflict whose repercussions would affect regional and international security and stability."

The MbS-Trump call was first reported by Axios, which got the scoop on Saturday evening:

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke to President Trump on Saturday and expressed concern over his plans for massive new strikes against Iran, according to two U.S. officials and a third source with knowledge of the call.

. . .

Such an attack could lead to an unprecedented escalation in the five-month war, which has repeatedly paused as Trump opened the door to negotiations — only to resume when those diplomatic efforts failed.

Iran has threatened to retaliate by launching attacks against energy and infrastructure facilities in Israel and the Gulf countries

  • The Saudis expressed concern and asked for clarity about the plan of action," one U.S. official told Axios.
  • A second source with knowledge of the call said MBS urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the strikes.

Why the MBS-Trump conversation matters is that Saudi Arabia remains one of Washington's top Gulf region allies. Riyadh has heavily influenced Trump's Iran policy at previous inflection points and appears to have exerted similar influence in delaying or narrowing the next phase of US military action.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 04:15
Tyler Durden

Operation Blackout Takes Down 4 Of The 'Largest Scam Compounds On Earth': FBI

Zero Rss
5 days 18 hours ago
Operation Blackout Takes Down 4 Of The 'Largest Scam Compounds On Earth': FBI

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The FBI announced on July 31 that it dismantled four of the “largest scam compounds on Earth” under Operation Blackout, seizing $15.2 billion in assets and freeing thousands of forced laborers.

Scam compounds provide the infrastructure to carry out large-scale online fraud operations and typically employ hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom are captives.

Operation Blackout freed thousands of trafficked workers, the FBI said in a post on X. In addition, roughly 10,000 Americans were reportedly saved from losing their life savings.

The agency did not specify a timeline for the event.

The FBI also built new international partnerships to fight off fraud and trafficking activities, the agency said.

Workers gather with their luggage after leaving a suspected scam center compound in Sihanoukville, Cambodia. Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP via Getty Images

In a July 21 post on X, FBI director Kash Patel said that the seizure of $15.2 billion under Operation Blackout was made over a 16-month period. Dozens of scam centers were dismantled and hundreds of criminals arrested, with multiple human trafficking compounds eliminated. Patel listed four operations carried out as part of dismantling scam operations.

Operation Zephyr Exodus involved the takedown of Cambodia’s Prince Group, a transnational criminal organization.

This led to the seizure of a record 127,000 Bitcoin, worth roughly $15 billion at the time.

Operation Sand Dollar, conducted in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, dismantled nine scam compounds, arrested more than 300 individuals, seized around $300 million, confiscated thousands of electronic devices, and freed thousands of trafficked workers. It was conducted through a joint operation with China’s Ministry of Public Security and the Dubai Police, Patel said.

In Operation Compound Fracture, authorities seized domains and malicious apps linked to scam activities.

And under the Shunda Compound Takedown, the FBI and Thai law enforcement carried out a joint operation that disrupted a network responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars in losses to victims.

Last month, the Treasury Department sanctioned 35 individuals and entities linked to the Prince Group, including a Cambodia-based conglomerate that allegedly provided laundering services for scam proceeds.

U.S. authorities estimate Americans to have lost at least $10 billion to scam operations running from Southeast Asia in 2024, a 66 percent jump from the previous year, the department said.

According to the FBI’s Internet Crime Report 2025, the agency’s Internet Crime Complaint Center received more than a million complaints last year. Total losses from these complaints amounted to over $20.87 billion, a 26 percent increase from the previous year.

Scam Compound Trafficking

In a July 28 statement, the United Nations’ International Organization for Migration (IOM) highlighted the issue of trafficking victims being forced to work in scam centers.

Victims are initially lured through fake job advertisements that promise legitimate work abroad. Once they arrive, they are stripped of documents, locked inside compounds, and forced to carry out online scam operations under threat of violence and other measures. Many survivors report being subjected to sexual abuse, solitary confinement, starvation, and torture, IOM said.

“People trapped in scam compounds are victims of trafficking, forced to commit crimes through violence, threats and coercion. They deserve protection, not punishment,” IOM Director General Amy Pope said in the statement.

“We must work together to support survivors, stop traffickers and close the gaps these criminal networks exploit. No country can tackle this alone,” Pope said.

During 2022–2025, the IOM assisted over 3,500 trafficked victims of forced criminality in Southeast Asia. These people were from 39 nations, mostly from India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Kenya, and Ethiopia.

On Sept. 30 last year, a group of lawmakers introduced the Scam Compound Accountability and Mobilization (SCAM) Act that aims to counter foreign scam operations, according to an Oct. 1, 2025, statement from the office of Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

The bill also seeks to hold transnational criminal organizations that engage in human trafficking, forced criminality, and cyber scams targeting Americans accountable for their actions.

The legislation was passed by the Senate in December and sent to the House of Representatives the same month. However, no significant action has been taken on the bill since then.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 03:30
Tyler Durden

Logistical Nightmare Unfolds As Rhine Plunges Toward Record Low

Zero Rss
5 days 19 hours ago
Logistical Nightmare Unfolds As Rhine Plunges Toward Record Low

The Rhine, one of Europe's most vital arteries for transporting industrial goods, has fallen to one of its owest level since the drought-stricken summer of 2018. The resulting loss of shipping capacity is driving up freight costs and raising the risk of supply disruptions for iron ore, coal, chemicals, petroleum products and other commodities moving through Europe's industrial heartland.

The Rhine water level gauge at Kaub, a key chokepoint on the Rhine for shipments heading to southern Germany and Switzerland, has fallen to just 25 centimeters, the lowest reading since the drought-stricken summer of 2018.

Zwei eindrucksvolle Bilder bei Rüdesheim bzw. Bingen (Nahemündung) mit dem Rekordniedrigwasser am Rhein und auffällig großen Sandbänken. Danke an Christian. /LD pic.twitter.com/9GC4c3zv6y

— Kachelmannwetter (@Kachelmannwettr) August 2, 2026

At levels of 40 to 50 centimeters, vessels can carry only about 20% of their normal cargo, according to Germany's Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration. The resulting loss of transport capacity is driving up freight costs and increasing the risk of supply disruptions of critical commodities.

Some Rhine Freight Rates Rose 400% in Two Months as Water Levels Fell

The benchmark freight rate per tonne for oil and liquid-bulk barges from Rotterdam to German cities south of the Kaub chokepoint rose about 400% in two months, reaching a record on the chart. Cargo demand did… pic.twitter.com/Yht6yiSWXQ

— LearnInvest (@LearnInvest2026) August 2, 2026

German federal data compiled by ETH Zurich shows that a drop below 24 centimeters, which is in the forecast for this week, would mark the lowest level since records began in 1880.

JPMorgan analyst Chetan Udeshi told clients that with Rhine water levels dropping to 2018 levels, this may spark a drag across Germany's chemicals industry:

BASF/K+S/Sector read: Rhine water levels dropped to multi-year lows in August and are now comparable to 2H18 levels, when Germany-exposed chemicals saw material operational/logistics headwinds (see our previous report here). It remains to be seen whether low water levels will persist for as long as they did in 2H18; if they do, this would represent an additional downside risk to 2H26 expectations, albeit likely smaller given post-2018 mitigation. As illustrated in Figure 1Rhine watrlve Kaubmsring potand Figure 2Probailty-weghd 14-ayforecst forRhine watrlve Kaubsof 31July, at the Kaub gauge, Rhine levels have fallen to multi-year lows and are now similar to Oct–Nov 2018, when disruptions to barge logistics and wider supply chains hit German/European chemicals; the two most impacted names then were BASF and K+S. Evonik and to a lesser extent Brenntag had also flagged earnings headwinds in 2H18.

BASF saw the most adverse impact of ~€250m in 3Q-4Q18 (~2.5% of 2018 adj EBITDA) due to its reliance on the Rhine for transportation infrastructure and plant cooling. Since then, BASF has implemented a number of mitigation measures, including diversifying its logistics network to be able to switch to alternative transport modes (e.g. rail), if needed, as well as expanding its fleet to include vessels that can still operate in the Rhine at low water levels. On the last week's 2Q26 conference call, BASF's CEO commented that thanks to the mitigation measures, this time the company does not expect to see a negative impact of the magnitude seen in 2H26.

K+S relied on the Rhine for saline water disposal, which became impossible due to reduced water levels; as a result, K+S had to halt production at parts of its largest site in Germany, Werra, for almost two months. This translated into a ~€95m adverse impact (~15% of 2018 EBITDA). Since 2018, K+S has invested in improving the resiliency and sustainability of its wastewater disposal at the Werra site, including as part of the ongoing Werra 2060 project capex, which should help to more than halve the amount of process water for the Werra site. In its 2025 annual report, K+S commented that through the system of wastewater storage basins at the company's disposal, as well as other measures, it had "significantly increased the flexibility of wastewater management at the Werra plant in recent years, to fully maintain production at the Werra plant even in a hydrologically dry year”. The company also noted, however, that in the case of an extreme drought comparable to that seen in the summer of 2022 and lasting over a long period of time, resulting in low levels in the Werra river, there could still be a risk of a temporary production interruption. Hence, subject to the duration of dry conditions, the impact on production at K+S cannot be ruled out, although we would expect it to be much reduced compared to the 2018 situation reflecting the improved wastewater management infrastructure.

Rhine Level At Kaub

Kaub Level Forecast

Barclays analyst Katie Richards recently told clients to have Rhine water levels "on their radars."

Here's more from Richards:

Our view: Investors should have the Rhine on their radar. Rhine-exposed chemical stocks historically underperformed during the 2018 and 2022 low-water episodes. What makes 2026 noteworthy is that the Rhine is entering the summer from an unusually weak position, with water levels already near multi-year lows for this point in the year and further risk from El Niño. However, unlike 2018, producers have invested heavily in mitigation measures, and these appeared to have proven effective during the 2022 drought when disruption was limited despite challenging conditions. As a result, we see the risk today as more skewed towards higher logistics costs and supply-chain inefficiencies than a repeat of the severe operational disruption experienced in 2018.Our concern would increase if Kaub water levels were to spend a prolonged period around 40cm or below, a level broadly consistent with or more severe than the 2022 drought, when financial impacts across the sector were largely negligible (versus ~100cm today).

The fallout of summer heat across the continent has spread beyond freight markets. Heat waves have forced France to curb output from its nuclear fleet because rising river temperatures could fuel wildfires.

In Hungary, the government has urged households and businesses to conserve electricity and water after demand overwhelmed supplies in Szentendre, leaving thousands without drinking water. Meanwhile, Italy's Po River has fallen below historic lows.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 02:45
Tyler Durden

Saudi Arabia Has Five Points Of Leverage Over The US

Zero Rss
5 days 20 hours ago
Saudi Arabia Has Five Points Of Leverage Over The US

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

It probably won’t ever muster up the political will to use them, however, but the possibility always remains.

Trump recently surprised the Saudis by demanding that they recognize Israel as the precondition for the US implementing their newly signed nuclear energy deal, which wasn’t part of the agreement. This follows him humiliating Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman earlier in the spring by claiming that he’d been “kissing my ass” for rejuvenating the US economy. His mistreatment of the Kingdom and its de facto leader is unexpected since the US relies on them in the following five ways:

1. Indirectly Projecting US Influence Across The Ummah

Saudi Arabia wields tremendous influence across the international Muslim community, or Ummah, due to its role as the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques. It’s also been a rock-solid American ally since the end of World War II. By almost always aligning with the US’ foreign policy goals, Saudi Arabia indirectly projects its influence across the Ummah, in some cases even more effectively than the US itself since it’s a fellow Muslim country that many Muslim governments and societies alike look to for guidance.

2. Investing Hundreds Of Billions Of Dollars Into The US

Saudi Arabia is globally known for its wealth, which it once again reminded everyone of when it pledged to invest a whopping $600 billion into the US during Trump’s trip to the Kingdom in May 2025. Few countries are capable of doing that. Even more importantly, the previously hyperlinked readout from the White House notes that at least $100 billion will go into the American tech industry, thus helping it to compete with China. The strategic significance of such Saudi investments into the US can’t be overstated.

3. Purchasing Billions Of Dollars Of American Arms

Building upon the above, nearly $142 billion of the $600 billion that Saudi Arabia agreed to invest into the US will go to the military-industrial complex, which is an astronomical amount. To put Saudi Arabia’s purchase of American arms into perspective, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s latest report noted that Saudi Arabia was the US’ largest client and the third-largest importer in the world from 2021-2025. This immensely benefits the American military-industrial complex.

4. Serving As The Core Of The “Islamic NATO”

One of this year’s trends that began to materialize late last year is the gradual formation of what’s been called the “Islamic NATO”, which is comprised of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkiye. They’re all either NATO members like Turkiye or “Major Non-NATO Allies” like the rest. Whether the “Islamic NATO” is ever formalized or just remains a consultative platform, it’s still expected to serve as the means of advancing American military-security interests across the Ummah as the US “Leads From Behind”.

5. Preventing The Rise Of The “Petroyuan”

One of the pillars of American hegemony is the petrodollar, which Saudi Arabia helped the US institutionalize, and its continued participation in this system prevents the rise of the hypothetical “petroyuan” that many members of the Alt-Media Community have speculated about for years. So long as Saudi Arabia remains committed to the petrodollar, the “petroyuan” will remain a thought exercise, thus indefinitely preserving what’s arguably one of the most important pillars of American hegemony.

These five ways in which the US relies on Saudi Arabia provide the Kingdom with leverage if it ever musters up the political will to wield these advantages. For example, it could stop indirectly projecting US influence across the Ummah, radically reduce its investments in the US economy and its purchase of US arms, refuse to allow the “Islamic NATO” to become the US’ proxy, and/or replace the petrodollar with the “petroyuan”. It probably won’t do any of this, however, but the possibility always remains.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/03/2026 - 02:00
Tyler Durden

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