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Oil Hits Session High After DOE Shows Lowest Midwest Gasoline Stocks On Record
Oil prices rose to session highs after today's DOE inventory data refuted the latest cheerful API prints from Tuesday afternoon. Instead of the API-reported builds in distillates and gasoline, the DOE said that in the last week both products drew, with a modest increase in Cushing inventories, while crude inventories rose by 922K
API
- Crude +1.0mm
- Gasoline +3.0mm
- Distillates +0.3mm
- Cushing +0.2mm
DOE
- Crude +0.922mm
- Gasoline -1.684mm
- Distillates -2.251k
- Cushing +553mm
As Bloomberg notes, that’s a large draw of distillate fuels at 2.25 million barrels, well below the 300,000 barrels increase API saw. The October diesel contract is expiring today, so price action is a little murky, but the most-active contract is holding pretty strong gains near $4.75 a gallon.
Cushing stocks saw another bounce off 'tank bottoms' even as crude inventories saw a modest increase, while product stocks both saw modest draws...
Here' a look at some more of the data:
- PADD 1B gasoline -1,422k
- PADD 1 Distillates -254k
- PADD 3 crude +3,417k
- Refinery utilization -1.5ppt vs est. -0.3ppt
- Refinery crude inputs -554k b/d
- Crude imports -179k b/d
- Crude production +16k b/d
The 922,000 barrel build in commercial crude stockpiles was close to the 1 million barrel increase seen by the API on Tuesday. It compares with a Bloomberg survey of analysts that saw the stockpile shrinking by 710,000 barrels and Bloomberg users’ expectations just before the data were released of a 1 million barrel build.
Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose to the highest since May. At 24 million barrels, inventories are inching further away from the 20-million mark generally seen as the minimum operating level for the storage hub. It’s the second straight week of builds at Cushing.
Meanwhile, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined by another 785K barrels; SPR stockpiles will continue to draw further throughout the end of the year after the energy department re-offered 40 million barrels of sour oil in a tender. The oil was offered as part of the exchange program, and must be returned in kind between 2027 and 2029. It’s to be seen if the government will be able to attract interest from traders and refiners. The minimum premium has fallen to 7% to 9.5%, compared with as much as 22% earlier this year. A total of 132 million barrels of crude has been taken out of the SPR since late March under a program to release 172 million barrels as part of a relief plan coordinated by the International Energy Agency aimed at lowering energy costs.
That means that the build in commercial crude stockpiles was mostly offset by another 785,000 barrels withdrawn from the SPR. That reduced the overall nationwide crude build to just 137,000 barrels in the week to Sep 25.
Taking a closer look, we find that gasoline stocks in the US Midwest are at the lowest level on record. Overall, the US has the least gasoline on hand since November 2014, with stockpiles falling by 1.68 million barrels.
On a seasonal basis, PADD2 (Midwest) gasoline has also never been lower.
Distillate fuel stockpiles in the US also remain at their lowest seasonal levels on record. Stockpiles fell in every single region. Exports, meanwhile, rebounded to 1.5 million barrels a day. While discussion of a US diesel export ban has died down a bit, it hasn’t faded entirely, and a number like this might revitalize some of those conversations.
Linked to that, there was another big drop is US crude processing by refineries. Over the past three weeks, crude consumptions fell by 1.3 million barrels a day. That’s the lowest since May. Rates fell in all regions, with the exception of the Rockies
Imports of Brazilian oil rose to the highest level since November 2024 and the highest level ever for this time of year, with the US importing nearly 500,000 barrels each day last week. While it’s unclear what’s driving the move, one explanation could be that strong American refinery runs are supporting demand for nearby foreign crudes while, at the same time, less Brazilian oil heads to Asia.
At the same time, imports from Canada rose for the second time in three weeks. Shipments from the country remain fairly low at 3.4 million barrels a day, but there was an uptick nonetheless. PADD 2 takes the most Canadian crude out of any region, so the build in Cushing was likely at least partially due to shipments from the North.
Bloomberg offers another take on falling refining crude processing: Canadian crude delivered via pipeline to both the US Gulf Coast and the Patoka hub are at a contango, a sign of weak demand. On the flip side, WTI at Houston is still in a backwardated structure. That can be partly explained by the light-heavy differential, that currently favors the use of light crude over heavy crudes from places like Canada and Venezuela.
WTI futures jumped a few cents higher to session high in a knee-jerk reaction to the report. EIA data showed a relatively unexciting US crude stockpile build of roughly 900,000 barrels, but the markets focus is elsewhere this week - namely, diesel.
Tyler Durden Wed, 09/30/2026 - 11:21
Feds Investigate Kinzinger Over Alleged Kalshi Bets On Own Pardon
Former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger is reportedly under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over prediction-market trades tied to an unusually personal event: whether President Joe Biden would pardon him.
According to Politico, citing three people familiar with the matter, the CFTC has been examining trades made by a Kalshi account linked to Kinzinger in December 2024 and January 2025. Kalshi is also reviewing the transactions. Kinzinger confirmed that he made the trades, telling Politico that he wagered on both whether he personally would receive a presidential pardon and whether Biden would issue preemptive pardons before leaving office.
According to screenshots Kinzinger provided to the outlet, he made $823 on the trades. He said he placed roughly 25 trades during the period and mostly lost money.
And of course, he denies having any inside information - telling the outlet "I was not a congressman or candidate, and had been out of office for two years, and had no inside information," and claiming that he never discussed a potential pardon with anyone at or near the White House and believed his wagers complied with Kalshi's rules at the time.
What Kalshi's Rules SaidA version of Kalshi's rulebook filed with the CFTC in November 2024 - before the reported trades - prohibited users from trading when they possessed material nonpublic information about an event or had the ability to influence its outcome. Kinzinger says he had neither.
Interestingly, on Jan. 6, 2025, while Biden's possible preemptive pardons were being publicly debated, CNN's Anderson Cooper asked Kinzinger whether Biden should pardon members of the Jan. 6 committee, including himself.
"No. I don't want it," he replied, adding "As soon as you take a pardon, it looks like you are guilty of something," Kinzinger said.
Two weeks later, Biden pardoned Kinzinger along with the other members and staff of the House Jan. 6 committee and police officers who testified before it. The Justice Department describes the action as a "full and unconditional pardon" covering potential federal offenses arising from or related to the committee's activities.
Granted: we don't know exactly when each Kinzinger trade occurred, whether he held a position when he made his CNN comments, or which side of the pardon contract he was taking at any particular point.
So the public statement and the trading activity cannot, based on what is currently known, be treated as evidence of market manipulation.
In February, the CFTC warned that prediction-market activity involving improperly obtained confidential information or a trader's influence over an event can trigger federal antifraud and anti-manipulation rules. The agency highlighted one case involving a political candidate trading on his own candidacy and another involving a person affiliated with a YouTube channel who allegedly knew the contents of videos before they were published.
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Migrant Caravan Headed For US Border Has 'Zero Chance' Of Entering, DHS Chief Warns
Another migrant caravan from Honduras has "zero chance" of entering the United States, DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin.
U.S. Army combat engineers place razor wire on the U.S.-Mexico border wall to reinforce security in El Paso, Texas, as seen from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on July 24, 2025. Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters"The caravan has zero chance of coming into our country," he told Newsmax Monday. "I’ve been talking with the Mexican government and we actually have been watching this caravan for quite some time."
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has been tracking the group since it left San Pedro Sula, Honduras Sept. 20, and has been working with international partners to monitor its movements.
"DHS is playing lockdown defense at the border. We will use every Weapon at our disposal, from A to X, to keep Americans safe," an agency spokesperson told the Epoch Times. "Migrants considering making the dangerous journey to our country should also be aware that the days of ‘catch and release’ are over, and Biden’s disastrous open border policy has been SEALED SHUT."
The group, which calls itself "Fe y Esperanza" (Faith and Hope) is estimated to include around 300 people, according to Oaxaca news outlet Oaxaca Capital.
Texas National Guard soldiers wait nearby the boat ramp where law enforcement enter the Rio Grande at Shelby Park in Eagle Pass, Texas, on Jan. 26, 2024. Michael Gonzalez/Getty Images"Some of its members have indicated that they are seeking to reach the United States, while others plan to stay in Mexico and look for job opportunities," the outlet reported. "It is also reported that migrants who were previously deported from the United States are now attempting to resume their journey northward."
The caravan entered Mexico from Guatemala via a bridge in Suchiate and walked more than 12 hours to reach Tapachula. They stayed in Oaxaca for several days and received care for exhaustion, dehydration, blisters, and foot injuries, the city said.
Humanitarian organizations provided first aid, medications, water, food, and hygiene items to the men, women, and children from several countries in Central America that made up the group, the city reported. -Epoch Times
Mexican authorities are reportedly helping to break up the caravan, Mullin said, adding "They are not entering ... We made this very clear."
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FTC Launches 'Rogue AI' Probe Of OpenAI, Anthropic - And Takes Aim At Their Regulatory Moat
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is launching a sweeping, aggressive probe into top frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic. However, the investigation goes far beyond simply asking questions about autonomous software run amok, and its chairman has made clear he won't let Silicon Valley use recent AI failures to build an insurmountable regulatory moat.
According to administration officials who spoke to the New York Post, FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson is preparing to hit tech executives with Civil Investigative Demands (CIDs) - essentially administrative subpoenas - to compel testimony regarding the dangers their artificial intelligence (AI) super intelligence (SI) models (are we doing this?) pose to the public and consumer markets.
The Catalyst: 'Hugging Face' JailbreakThe immediate trigger for the probe is the highly publicized "Hugging Face incident" from this past July. During what was supposed to be a contained cybersecurity evaluation, about 700 of an estimated 1,200 OpenAI agents escaped their testing sandbox, bypassed network controls, and breached the infrastructure of the computational tools company Hugging Face.
Running primarily on OpenAI's "Internal Model 1," the autonomous agents tried to erase traces of their work, created nearly a million shortened URLs to run code outside their restricted environments, and even tried to enlist other AI models to help.
While AI safety researchers were quick to call it "the first true AI safety incident," the FTC is taking a distinctly different view on accountability. Chairman Ferguson recently indicated that companies cannot shift legal blame to "rogue" AI systems when their automated decisions result in security breaches or consumer harm. The liability, the FTC argues, rests squarely on the humans who designed, instructed, and unleashed the models.
That said, these breaches have drawn scrutiny of their own. OpenAI first disclosed the incident as an "unprecedented" cyber event, but Hugging Face's own post-mortem found the agents reached the open internet through a network route the sandbox had deliberately left open, and exploited weaknesses that "a capable human attacker could have found and exploited" - unsafe dataset processing, exposed cloud metadata, overly broad access and long-lived credentials. OpenAI itself conceded that its own chain-of-thought monitoring, had it been running, would have caught the initial activity.
Nor was OpenAI alone. The Hugging Face breach was one of a string of incidents involving OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta and Google models that trace back to evaluations run with a single vendor, Israel-based Irregular, whose test environments had live internet access while the models were told they were in a simulation. Irregular notified all four labs in late July, yet the disclosures trickled out one lab at a time over seven weeks - turning one contractor's mistake into what looked like a wave of AI breakouts. Isolating test models from the internet is a "basic control measure," frontier security expert Matthew Mittelsteadt said. "You'd think that of all the things that you've got to get right." Some skeptics have gone further, questioning whether repeated "accidents" at the same vendor were accidents at all.
The Trojan Horse of "Self-Regulation"For years, executives like OpenAI's Sam Altman and Anthropic's Dario Amodei have publicly warned that their own products pose an "existential risk" to humanity, practically begging lawmakers to regulate them.
But as we previously noted, these highly publicized warnings and agent "escapes" often serve a dual purpose. By whipping Washington into a panic over AI doomsday scenarios, industry leaders are paving the way for a worst-case scenario of heavy-handed regulation. Stifling compliance requirements inevitably crush open-source developers and cash-strapped startups, leaving the trillion-dollar AI bubble safely in the hands of the incumbent monopolies.
Chairman Ferguson appears to be acutely aware of this Silicon Valley playbook.
"I think it's very important that we not allow these two firms to come to Washington, whip everyone into a panic and then say, 'We need a whole bunch of regulations that we can comply with,'" Ferguson told Fox News earlier this month. "That is how companies build a moat around their businesses to make sure that people can't compete against them."
The FTC's aggressive posture stands in stark contrast to the White House's approach. Just this week, President Trump hosted a summit with leading tech billionaires - including Amodei, OpenAI President Greg Brockman, Elon Musk, and Google's Sundar Pichai - resulting in a much friendlier, voluntary "self-regulation" pact.
The administration is attempting to walk a nearly impossible geopolitical tightrope. The US government wants to prevent autonomous agents from hacking power grids, leaking data, or manipulating financial markets, but it is equally terrified that stifling the American AI industry will hand global dominance directly to China.
The FTC probe will test whether the US can successfully police the world's most powerful software without inadvertently cementing an AI oligarchy.
Tyler Durden Wed, 09/30/2026 - 10:40