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FTC Launches 'Rogue AI' Probe Of OpenAI, Anthropic - And Takes Aim At Their Regulatory Moat

Zero Rss
1 week 1 day ago
FTC Launches 'Rogue AI' Probe Of OpenAI, Anthropic - And Takes Aim At Their Regulatory Moat

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is launching a sweeping, aggressive probe into top frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic. However, the investigation goes far beyond simply asking questions about autonomous software run amok, and its chairman has made clear he won't let Silicon Valley use recent AI failures to build an insurmountable regulatory moat.

According to administration officials who spoke to the New York Post, FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson is preparing to hit tech executives with Civil Investigative Demands (CIDs) - essentially administrative subpoenas - to compel testimony regarding the dangers their artificial intelligence (AI) super intelligence (SI) models (are we doing this?) pose to the public and consumer markets.

The Catalyst: 'Hugging Face' Jailbreak

The immediate trigger for the probe is the highly publicized "Hugging Face incident" from this past July. During what was supposed to be a contained cybersecurity evaluation, about 700 of an estimated 1,200 OpenAI agents escaped their testing sandbox, bypassed network controls, and breached the infrastructure of the computational tools company Hugging Face. 

Running primarily on OpenAI's "Internal Model 1," the autonomous agents tried to erase traces of their work, created nearly a million shortened URLs to run code outside their restricted environments, and even tried to enlist other AI models to help.

While AI safety researchers were quick to call it "the first true AI safety incident," the FTC is taking a distinctly different view on accountability. Chairman Ferguson recently indicated that companies cannot shift legal blame to "rogue" AI systems when their automated decisions result in security breaches or consumer harm. The liability, the FTC argues, rests squarely on the humans who designed, instructed, and unleashed the models.

That said, these breaches have drawn scrutiny of their own. OpenAI first disclosed the incident as an "unprecedented" cyber event, but Hugging Face's own post-mortem found the agents reached the open internet through a network route the sandbox had deliberately left open, and exploited weaknesses that "a capable human attacker could have found and exploited" - unsafe dataset processing, exposed cloud metadata, overly broad access and long-lived credentials. OpenAI itself conceded that its own chain-of-thought monitoring, had it been running, would have caught the initial activity.

Nor was OpenAI alone. The Hugging Face breach was one of a string of incidents involving OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta and Google models that trace back to evaluations run with a single vendor, Israel-based Irregular, whose test environments had live internet access while the models were told they were in a simulation. Irregular notified all four labs in late July, yet the disclosures trickled out one lab at a time over seven weeks - turning one contractor's mistake into what looked like a wave of AI breakouts. Isolating test models from the internet is a "basic control measure," frontier security expert Matthew Mittelsteadt said. "You'd think that of all the things that you've got to get right." Some skeptics have gone further, questioning whether repeated "accidents" at the same vendor were accidents at all.

The Trojan Horse of "Self-Regulation"

For years, executives like OpenAI's Sam Altman and Anthropic's Dario Amodei have publicly warned that their own products pose an "existential risk" to humanity, practically begging lawmakers to regulate them.

But as we previously noted, these highly publicized warnings and agent "escapes" often serve a dual purpose. By whipping Washington into a panic over AI doomsday scenarios, industry leaders are paving the way for a worst-case scenario of heavy-handed regulation. Stifling compliance requirements inevitably crush open-source developers and cash-strapped startups, leaving the trillion-dollar AI bubble safely in the hands of the incumbent monopolies.

Chairman Ferguson appears to be acutely aware of this Silicon Valley playbook.

"I think it's very important that we not allow these two firms to come to Washington, whip everyone into a panic and then say, 'We need a whole bunch of regulations that we can comply with,'" Ferguson told Fox News earlier this month. "That is how companies build a moat around their businesses to make sure that people can't compete against them."

The FTC's aggressive posture stands in stark contrast to the White House's approach. Just this week, President Trump hosted a summit with leading tech billionaires - including Amodei, OpenAI President Greg Brockman, Elon Musk, and Google's Sundar Pichai - resulting in a much friendlier, voluntary "self-regulation" pact.

The administration is attempting to walk a nearly impossible geopolitical tightrope. The US government wants to prevent autonomous agents from hacking power grids, leaking data, or manipulating financial markets, but it is equally terrified that stifling the American AI industry will hand global dominance directly to China.

The FTC probe will test whether the US can successfully police the world's most powerful software without inadvertently cementing an AI oligarchy.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/30/2026 - 10:40
Tyler Durden

Troy Jackson claims Maine Jews won’t call Gaza war a genocide ‘only because they’re Jewish’

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
Maine Senate hopeful Troy Jackson bemoaned how Jewish residents of his state have been reticent to label the Gaza war a genocide, suggesting it was tied to the Holocaust.
Ryan King

Homeowners swear by DeWalt — and this 2-tool kit is under $250

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
For the DIY-er.
Nishka Dhawan

Panicked 911 calls reveal moments after University of Georgia student accidentally plunged from 8th-floor window while dancing: ‘She’s not moving’

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
Panicked 911 calls revealed the moments after a University of Georgia senior accidentally plunged from her 8th-floor apartment and miraculously survived.
Alex Diaz

Pilot arrested for attempting to crash passenger plane in ‘jihadist terrorist attack’: Israeli officials

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
The copilot who stabbed the pilot of a flydubai plane headed for Tel Aviv has been arrested for attempting what Israel's defense minister has branded “a jihadist terrorist attack attempt.”
Chris Nesi

Court halts execution of Christa Gail Pike in Tennessee for a murder she committed at age 18

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
A federal appeals court halted the execution in Tennessee of Christa Pike about an hour before it was set to begin Wednesday.
Associated Press

Hung, Drawn, And Third-Quartered: Roll On Q4

Zero Rss
1 week 1 day ago
Hung, Drawn, And Third-Quartered: Roll On Q4

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Today ends Q3, which has been a shocker even in a year of major market shocks.

Wars dragged on and spread. Russia-Ukraine saw energy sites hit and hybrid attacks against Europe increase. Saudi Arabia, not Iran, is now under missile fire and both oil exporters are partly blockaded. France gave the first sign of getting dragged into the war, which conflated more with Russia-Ukraine. A US-China summit suggested détente but news that families of Chinese AI workers can no longer leave the country suggested it’s minus a ‘te’ and an ‘e’ - and China just opened an airbase in Laos. Canada floated joining the EU and fighting a US invasion like the Taliban, as Greenland became a permanent US security protectorate with Ottawa’s approval. Argentina still wants the Falklands back, which London can no longer project power towards as in 1982, and as it continues to try to give away other strategic territory against strong US objections.

AI saw a series of remarkable headlines: technological breakthroughs, market meltdowns and melt-ups, and new political pushbacks. Perhaps the highlight was the upcoming Anthropic IPO telling would be shareholders that AI may pose an “existential risk to humanity.”

Western stocks had a steady Q3 until recently. With today’s session still to come, the S&P is +2.3% q-o-q vs. +14.9% in Q2 and -4.6% in Q1. The Dow -1.9% vs. +12.9% and -3.6%, the Nasdaq +2.2% vs. +21.4% and -7.1%, Eurostoxx are flat vs. +13.4% and -3.6%, the FTSE +1.3% vs +3.2% and +2.5%, but the Nikkei is -6.5% vs. +37.2% and +1.4%, the Shanghai composite -6.4% vs. +5.2% and -1.9%, and the Indian Sensex -5.2% vs. +6.3% and -15.6%.

Q3 saw the most dramatic up move in bond yield so far this year. With today yet to come: US 2s are now 4.90% (+72bp q-o-q), 10s 5.24% (+76bps), and 30s 5.57% (+60bps), the highest since 2002; Bund 2s are 3.29% (+76bps), 10s 3.62% (+76bps), and 30s 3.95% (+53bps); OATs 2s are 3.64% (+94bps), 10s 4.81% (+116bps), and 30s 5.39% (+93bps); Gilts 2s are 4.91% (+76bps), 10s 5.41% (+65bps), and 30s 5.92% (+44bps); JGB 2s are 1.96% (+59bps), 10s 3.11% (+43bps), and 30s 4.20% (+26bps).

Q3 didn’t just drop hopes of ‘lower for longer’ but doused them in scarce diesel and set fire to them. In Q1, we got just one rate hike from a G20 central bank, the RBA. In Q2, we got four, the RBA, ECB, BOJ, and Bank Indonesia. In Q3, we got the RBA (who just hiked again yesterday and are seen doing so again in the new year), the ECB, the BOJ, plus the Fed – and the issue is how much more might be needed there and elsewhere.

FX markets were also caught on the hop if expecting a weaker USD, as is so often the case, with a notable exception with huge implications for other markets. EUR/USD is around -1.1% q-o-q and GBP/USD had an unexciting Q3 while the DXY is slightly up right now. However, there was huge action in USD/JPY in the opposite direction that may carry through to the Yen Carry Trade if it carries on. EM FX are notably also starting to slip against the dollar again with the exception of CNY, which is a ballgame unto itself.

Brent oil is $104 right now, well up over a Q3 it started at $73 while the 3-2-1 crack spread is $62 vs. $17, which is what matters more, so we moved from an effective total of $90 to $166. The FT today notes that oil prices and US Treasury yields are in tightest relationship since 1990 – you mean during the late Cold War, when it was all about geopolitics at core? What a surprise!

So, what goodies will Q4 bring?

Geopolitics is on a knife edge between efforts to bring peace and a dynamic leading towards more, and more widespread war. Beyond Hormuz and the Red Sea, Iraq today sees US troops withdraw, as Ethiopia blames regional rivals for unrest with a risk of conflict spillover into the Horn of Africa, and Israeli PM Netanyahu claims indications of an attack plot by ‘enemies’ ahead – which the opposition leader, briefed on it, has publicly decried. Concerns are Russia-Ukraine could escalate into outright provocations vs. Europe and NATO, as the EU’s military mobility plan faces a €100bn bill and Ukraine is pushing for “bold action” on Russian assets to plug a $78bn defence spending gap in 2027: Politico notes ‘Tax cuts, handouts and blind hope: Europe finds few tools to fight a coming energy crunch.’ In Asia, China and Japan are verbally clashing despite some signs of an attempted reset, as Japan’s defence chief again brought up the “nuclear taboo” and the business press reports that ‘China strengthens position for Taiwan conflict with mobilisation law.’

In AI, Trump and AI CEOs just signed a voluntary safety pact and backed data centre expansion, but Sam Altman said OpenAI will delay its IPO until it overcomes safety concerns – regardless, tech supply chains continue to see unprecedented, dare I say wartime(?), demand boom conditions. The UK AI minister just admitted the country doesn’t “currently have a position where we can build superintelligence” as it’s “illegal to do so” in terms of regulations and the power demand required. Europe is meanwhile discussing an EU-wide digital levy to generate up to €25bn annually for the next budget, which will infuriate the US (and which Germany and other major contributors reject as outlined, demanding hundreds of billions of cuts).

Indeed, geoeconomics is on a knife-edge too. Will the EU initiative a trade war with China in Q4 via an expanded Anti-Coercion Instrument or resign itself to higher flows of Chinese imports in higher value-added sectors, so less local industry? Ford's CEO just urged US caution on Chinese automakers and said for Europe it’s “too late.” But could China then choke Europe on rare earths? Yesterday, the US ambassador to China posted that "Back in April of last year, China put the export regime process in place for rare earth elements and magnets. Then, on October 9th, they weaponized that by expanding that to the entire world. Now, they've weaponized it even further by escalating to the point where they make any diversification efforts away from China as a criminal offence...”

Politically, we may face an October surprise ahead of November US midterm elections where talk is of a Blue Wave (like the Red Wave that didn’t materialise in 2022). Either way almost everywhere the trend is to populism of the left and right. That’s clear in Europe, and the UK just saw PM Burnham promise PR, rejoining the EU, and reindustrialisation, without tariffs or industrial policy, which the Guardian called a “radical progressive plan to help Britain ‘rise again’’ yet had to add was “a clear vision for Britain – but not for how it fits into a troubled world.” Equally, the Wall Street Journal today notes ‘Americans Want Populist Policies That Defy Traditional Political Labels’, where their survey finds broad support for caps on prescription drug prices and strong border security. In short, nobody wants the policies being sold as the solution to high inflation.

So, what’s your guess for Q4?

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/30/2026 - 10:20
Tyler Durden

Slipknot announces 2027 stadium tour with Bring Me The Horizon. Get tickets

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
The nü-metal icons will shred at Queens, NY's Citi Field on July 18.
Matt Levy

Actor among two killed in horror plane crash in California as mangled wreck found in remote field

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
Aviation fanatic and actor Guy Kapulnik has been identified as one of two who died in a SoCal airplane crash last week.
Ross O'Keefe

Millions of cancer cases are linked to 5 common infections: study

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
A new study suggests that a staggering 2.3 million new cancer cases around the world in 2024 — about 12% of new cancer cases — can be attributed to infectious diseases.
Allie Yang

Core PCE Prints Cooler Than Expected Due To Change In Methodology, As Savings Rate Plunges To 3 Year Low

Zero Rss
1 week 1 day ago
Core PCE Prints Cooler Than Expected Due To Change In Methodology, As Savings Rate Plunges To 3 Year Low

Ahead of today's closely watched core PCE report - the Fed's (reportedly) favorite inflation indicator (although that will probably shift to Truflation after Kevin Warsh's task force is done with analyzing the data), which was seen by many as deciding whether the Fed will hike in October and December, or just December as NY Fed president John Williams strongly hinted yesterday, we warned readers that PCE may surprise to the downside: "the Bureau of Economic Analysis updated methodology for calculating inflation in three components is expected to trim August year-on-year change by a few tenths of a percentage point."

Why PCE may surprise to the downside: the Bureau of Economic Analysis updated methodology for calculating inflation in three components is expected to trim August year-on-year change by a few tenths of a percentage point.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 30, 2026

And surprise it did, because despite rampant energy inflation and record diesel prices, headline PCE came in line sequentially, printing up 0.3%, in line with expectations but coming in far cooler than expected on an annual basis, rising just 3.4%, vs expectations of a 3.7% print.

The MoM jump in headline PCE was driven by services, a reversal from last month's drop, largely due to the spike in communication and education services.

But it was the far more important core PCE, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, that rose 0.2% MoM (technically 0.247%, below the +0.3% MoM expected) with a notable miss in the YoY print, which dropped to +3.0% from the unrevised 3.3% (now revised to 3.0%), missing estimates of a 3.3% print.

Within core, the biggest jump was again communications and education services.

Ominously, the much-watched SuperCore PCE (Services ex-shelter) saw price inflation reversed the recent drop on a YoY basis, while surging 0.4% on a MoM basis...

... driven by a record surge in "Other Services" (+0.9%)...

.. which in turn was the result of a surge in cell phone plans costs, and a record jump in education costs!

Commenting on the data, David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation said that "this is good news for investors worried about the recent surge in bond yields, and it bolsters the case for not hiking in October. We might have seen peak hawkishness from the Fed given the recent jump in rates. However, it’s also relatively old data at this point that doesn’t reflect this month’s surge in diesel prices. Investors will remain wary of energy prices as we enter a key period of fuel consumption."

The inflation-boosted prices were met with much higher spending (+0.9% MoM notional, in line with estimates and up from 0.1% in July) while income growth was dangerously lower, failing to keep up with spending, and rising just +0.2% MoM, which was down from 0.3% in the previous month and missed estimates of 0.5%.

The surprising spike in spending not supported by income, meant that the freshly revised savings rate tumbled again, dropping from 4.6% in July to just 4.1% in August, the lowest since Nov 2022.

While spending growth rose again, Income growth is now the lowest since April 2022!

In other words, once again US consumers are failing to keep up with inflation and they can do so only - and temporarily - by digging deep into their savings.

Finally, while the core PCE was indeed lower than expected, recall that as we said above, this is mostly due to a change in methodology. Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its updated PCE deflator methodology, which has been applied retroactively through Q1 2021, with RBC estimating that core PCE’s annual pace is expected to fall 18bps, which would revise July’s reading to 3.1% from 3.3%. They were spot on. 

RBC analysts also aid that three changes drive this: portfolio management services will use a CES-based quantity series instead of nominal price deflation; computer software will use a new composite PPI/CPI deflator; and legal services will use a new deflator after the current CPI measure proved unreliable.

In other words, today's welcome "miss" in core PCE is likely not due to lower prices but due to spreadsheet changes and rebenchmarking. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/30/2026 - 10:12
Tyler Durden

NFL makes drastic move to sell slow-moving Colts-Commanders London tickets — and fans are irate

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
Fans have aired their complaints on NFL U.K.’s social media posts.
Associated Press

Bizarre ‘elevator music’ playing in middle of Peacock’s Yankees-Red Sox broadcast had fans baffled

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
Maybe background music is the new wave of baseball broadcasts.
Matt Ehalt

Single woman’s viral ‘husband application’ Google form attracts more than 240 potential suitors

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
Since pinning the three-page Google form to her Instagram bio in late August, Patterson’s targeted search for a spouse has garnered 241 submissions.
Allison Lax

Regulating AI 'not the right place to start' says Bailey

BBC Tech
1 week 1 day ago
AI needs "rigorous" testing and safeguards to contain risk, Andrew Bailey says.

Tom Cruise applauds Prince William’s ‘smart choice’ to marry wife Kate Middleton

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
The "Mission: Impossible" star recalled meeting both the Prince and Princess of Wales at the world premiere of "Digger" in London last week.
mliss1578

Tom Cruise applauds Prince William’s ‘smart choice’ to marry wife Kate Middleton

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
The "Mission: Impossible" star recalled meeting both the Prince and Princess of Wales at the world premiere of "Digger" in London last week.
Tamantha Ryan

Apple's $2,000 Foldable iPhone Could Sell 6 Million Units, Counterpoint Says

Zero Rss
1 week 1 day ago
Apple's $2,000 Foldable iPhone Could Sell 6 Million Units, Counterpoint Says

Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam expects Apple to sell about 6 million units of its first foldable iPhone this year. The estimate offers an early sentiment gauge of potential demand for Apple's first-ever foldable handset, priced at roughly $2,000.

The iPhone Duo sales forecast hinges on Apple's ability to ramp up production, Lam said, according to Bloomberg News. The new foldable iPhone is scheduled for release in October.

Separately, market research firm IDC expects global foldable shipments to rise 13% to 22.9 million units this year. Without Apple’s iPhone Duo, that segment would slide into a contraction.

Initial iPhone 18 Pro family sales rose 12% compared with the iPhone 17 Pro launch, according to Lam. That performance helped Apple capture a 33% share of China's smartphone market during the period tracked.

However, iPhone 18 sales signals in China are mixed. Edison Lee, Jefferies' head of China and Hong Kong technology and software research, commented on the launch on Monday, saying, "Weak 18P/PM resale prices vs. 17P/PM remain our clearest sign of softer demand, despite a weekend rebound in lead times that could reflect tighter supply as DUO ramps."

Lam pointed out, "Price hikes of over $200 on many Chinese flagship models may have raised the price anchor, strengthening the iPhone’s relative value proposition." That's good news for Apple as the price gap between its phones and those of domestic brands narrows, making its premium prices easier to defend in an overall soft market.

For Apple, the US launch clashes with a souring consumer backdrop. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plunged in September to its lowest level since April 2014, while elevated gasoline and diesel prices continue to squeeze household budgets.

The question is whether cash-strapped consumers can afford $2,000 for a foldable iPhone. Vision Pro's disappointing launch a few years back offers a cautionary tale.

If the Duo struggles to attract consumers beyond wealthy first adopters, Apple's new CEO could face an early test of the company's push further upmarket.

Tyler Durden Wed, 09/30/2026 - 10:00
Tyler Durden

Phillies vs. Braves Game 2 NL Wild Card props, picks: Bryce Harper’s time to step up

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
It’s do or die for the Phillies on Wednesday. 
Sean Treppedi

Where Is Thomas Randolph From Netflix’s ‘The Widower: Til Death Do Us Part’ Now?

NY Post
1 week 1 day ago
Netflix's new true crime doc covers the case of the "black widower."
mliss1578

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