Aggregator

Saudi Arabia Could Use Trump Deal To Get A Nuke: Intel Assessment

Zero Rss
1 week 5 days ago
Saudi Arabia Could Use Trump Deal To Get A Nuke: Intel Assessment

A classified US intelligence assessment's conclusions have been reported in The Washington Post at the end of this week, and the report says that Saudi Arabia has not ruled out developing nuclear weapons.

The report comes as Congress is scrutinizing President Trump's controversial nuclear cooperation agreement with Riyadh, which was signed by Energy Secretary Chris Wright in July. The classified intel has not been released by the Post - but the publication says the assessment was presented to Congress as part of the nuclear deal review.

via Reuters

The landmark (what is supposed to be) civil 30-year nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia could be worth tens of billions of dollars and put American companies at the center of the kingdom's nuclear buildout

A Section 123 agreement creates a legal framework for peaceful use, safeguards, and nonproliferation. The admin's reasoning goes that American involvement also gives Washington more influence over Riyadh's program than it would have if Saudi Arabia turned to China or Russia.

However, according to the Washington Post, Congressional leaders are alarmed at lack of appropriate safeguards and significant departure from precedent.

A group of Democratic senators led by Ed Markey of Massachusetts and Jeff Merkley of Oregon have made their deep unease known in a letter submitted to Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday.

They are raising the alarm over a process "that is all but certain to allow Riyadh to acquire the means to enrich uranium and possibly develop nuclear weapons."

Sen. Markey has been most outspoken, calling the arrangement "bogus as hell" - as he sees Washington as acquiescing to Saudi demands which point to a secret intentions to keeping open a path to a nuke. He also alleges some insider quid pro quo involving unelected officials close to Trump.

"If they’ve given up the intent to develop a nuclear weapon, then they’d give up domestic enrichment and reprocessing power, right? They'd accept massive inspections from the IAEA," the lawmaker from Massachusetts said.

The senators are also worried that this will only affirm Iran's defiance, especially if they decide to covertly develop a nuclear weapon. Tehran will feel more justified amid a potential Middle East atomic arms race.

"It is very clear that as this war in Iran continues to unfold, that the Iranians are going to fiercely defend their ability to develop a nuclear weapons program, and as a result, any action that we take in Saudi Arabia will only further accelerate a fallout nuclear arms race in the region," Markey said additionally.

As for the letter from the Democratic senators, it hit out hard at shady dealings with the Saudis by Trump's family and inner-circle.

If the Saudi Arabian dictatorship does try to develop nuclear weapons, as US intelligence reports suggest, does that mean the US should start a war against them and try to regime-change them based on the view that "Saudi Arabia must not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon"? https://t.co/NtaxaEZU1H

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) September 25, 2026

"Jared Kushner, for example, accepted a $2 billion investment from a Saudi sovereign wealth fund after leaving the White House at the end of the first Trump Administration," the letter says.

"Westinghouse Electric, meanwhile, stands to make tens of billions of dollars if this agreement moves forward. Westinghouse’s majority owner is closely associated with Newmark, the real estate firm run and owned in part by the sons of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick," it also says.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/27/2026 - 07:35
Tyler Durden

Is Putin Caught In An "Escalation Trap"? The Long War In Eastern Europe

Zero Rss
1 week 5 days ago
Is Putin Caught In An "Escalation Trap"? The Long War In Eastern Europe

Authored by Larry Johnson via Sonar21.com

Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism has flagged a recent interview that Professor Robert Pape did with Mario Nawfal. During the interview, Pape argued that Vladimir Putin is caught in an "escalation trap." In his telling, Russia launched a preventive war in February 2022 to seize Kyiv and roughly 60 percent of Ukraine. That plan collapsed, and the fallback, betting that NATO would break, is now producing the European counterbalancing coalition Moscow most feared. It is a tidy theory. It also rests on a premise about Russian intentions that the record does not support, and once that premise goes, the trap goes with it.

What the force tells you about the objective

Start with arithmetic, the kind any planner of military operations does before anything else. Russia invaded with roughly 150,000 to 190,000 troops, including separatist forces. The standard rule of thumb for occupying a hostile population, from James Quinlivan’s RAND work, is about 20 troops per 1,000 inhabitants. For a country of more than 40 million, even occupying 60 percent of the territory would require several hundred thousand troops, several times what Russia sent. Moscow’s General Staff can do this arithmetic. A force that size is a coercive instrument, not an occupation army.

The pattern of the operation fits coercion. Russian forces approached Kyiv from the north but never attempted to assault or encircle a city of three million. The pressure was aimed at the government, not at taking the capital block by block. Talks began within days, in Belarus on February 28, and moved to Istanbul in March. Pape's supporters point to the airborne assault on Hostomel as proof of a plan to seize the capital. But a failed coup de main against an airfield is not evidence of an intent to occupy 60 percent of a country.

Istanbul: the objective was achieved

The strongest evidence against Pape is that the coercion worked. By the end of March 2022, meetings in Belarus and Turkey, together with video conferences, had produced the Istanbul Communiqué, a framework for a settlement. Ukraine accepted permanent neutrality in exchange for security guarantees from the United States and its allies, with Russia also as a guarantor. Russia, for its part, agreed to a process to settle the Crimea dispute diplomatically.

via IISS

That was the core of what Moscow wanted, and the Ukrainian side confirmed it. David Arakhamia, who led Ukraine’s delegation, later said Russia was prepared to end the war if Ukraine accepted Finland-style neutrality and committed not to join NATO. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed to me, Judge Napolitano and Mario Nawfal directly that the talks produced a tentative agreement, and that its terms were brought to the table by the Ukrainian delegation, not imposed by Moscow.

As a gesture of goodwill, Moscow withdrew its forces from north of Kyiv. Western commentary treats that as a retreat forced by battlefield failure. It is at least as consistent with the claim that the pressure had served its purpose.

How the deal died

Then the politics changed. Boris Johnson arrived unannounced in Kyiv on April 9, 2022, and according to Arakhamia told the Ukrainians not to sign anything with Russia and to “just fight.” Two days earlier, Lavrov had already complained publicly that Ukraine’s new draft departed sharply from the key provisions agreed at Istanbul on March 29. Washington and London had decided Russia was weaker than they had thought and that it could be bled. Ukraine walked away.

This is the point Pape’s framework cannot absorb. If Russia’s goal was a neutral Ukraine obtained through negotiation, the war did not go on because Moscow’s plan failed. It went on because Russia’s adversaries rejected the settlement.

No plan B, but a fast pivot and a new army

With hindsight, Russia clearly had not prepared a plan B for Ukraine walking away. That was a real planning failure. But the Russian military adjusted quickly. It concentrated on the Donbas and the land bridge to Crimea, and the fall of Mariupol in May gave it the first major result of that phase.

The bigger adjustment came in September 2022. After a large number of contract soldiers left the army in August and the Kharkiv counteroffensive exposed how thin Russian lines were, Putin ordered the mobilization of 300,000 reservists. That was the start, not the end, of Russia’s response. From that point Moscow set about building a much larger army, as the Russian officers I have interviewed have described in detail, including Gen. Apti Alaudinov, Gen. Evgeny Buzhinsky, Gen. Andrei Gurulev and Col. Eduard Basurin.

The mobilization was followed by a sustained recruitment campaign and an expanded annual draft. By Medvedev’s count, more than 452,000 men signed military contracts in 2023. Roughly 450,000 followed in 2024, and more than 422,000 in 2025. Year after year, Russia has added at least 350,000 new soldiers. Putin’s decrees tell the same story: authorized military strength rose from about 1.15 million in 2022 to 1.32 million in December 2023, then to 1.5 million effective December 2024. By 2026, according to my sources, Russia’s army had reached that 1.5 million active-duty figure.

That is not the behavior of a state that expected a quick war and is now improvising its way out of a trap. It is the behavior of a state that decided in the autumn of 2022 to fight a long war, and built the force to do it.

Why the timeline matters

The goals never changed. Putin announced them on February 24, 2022: the demilitarization and “denazification” of Ukraine. What changed after Istanbul was the method, from coercion toward a negotiated settlement to attrition. Moscow has never attached a timeline to that effort.

Pape’s trap depends on the assumption that Russia needed a quick victory and is now stuck with worse and worse options. An attrition strategy with no deadline, backed by an army that has grown every year since 2022, is not a trap. It is a choice. Moscow's theory of victory since late 2022 has been to exhaust Ukraine’s manpower and the West’s willingness to supply it, not to break NATO by a specific date. Four and a half years later, Russian forces are still advancing, and Ukraine’s reserve and mobilization problems are structural, not temporary.

Pape’s answer is European counterbalancing, backed by an EU economy he puts at about eight times Russia’s. That ratio only holds at market exchange rates, which badly understate what Russia’s economy can actually produce. On purchasing power parity, the measure that matters in a war of production, Russia is the fourth largest economy in the world: about $6.9 trillion in 2024 by the World Bank’s count, behind only China, the United States and India, and ahead of Japan and Germany. The EU as a bloc is still larger, but on that basis the gap is roughly half of Pape’s figure.

GDP understates Russia’s position in another way. Russia has a resource base that Europe cannot match, from oil, gas and coal to metals and fertilizer, and a defense-industrial base that Europe has let wither for thirty years.

Artillery shells, the basic currency of this war, show what that means in practice. Russia produced an estimated 400,000 122mm and 152mm artillery rounds in 2022. By 2025, estimates put its annual output at about 4.2 million. A 2026 Estonian intelligence report goes further, estimating that Russian factories produced about seven million artillery, mortar, tank and rocket rounds in 2025. On top of that, Russia has received millions of rounds from North Korea.

Europe started from almost nothing. At the beginning of 2024, according to Rheinmetall’s own internal estimate, all Western European manufacturers together could produce about 550,000 shells a year. NATO's own assessment was that Russia produced as much ammunition in the first three months of 2024 as the entire alliance did in a year. The EU pledged to reach a capacity of two million 155mm shells a year by the end of 2025, a target, not proven output. Even adding US production, which is aiming for about 100,000 rounds a month in 2026, allied programs might yield about three million shells this year, still less than Russia’s estimated output in 2025.

That is the real measure of the balance Pape is counting on. A bloc whose economy is several times Russia’s is still being outproduced in the one commodity that decides an attrition war. Balance-of-power theory may be right that Europe will eventually arm itself. It says nothing about whether that happens in time to change the outcome in Ukraine.

Russia sent a force too small to occupy most of Ukraine, negotiated within days, and reached a framework agreement within five weeks. When the West persuaded Kyiv to walk away, Russia shifted to an open-ended war of attrition and spent four years building an army to fight it. That is not a state trapped by the failure of a plan to conquer 60 percent of a country. It is a state that tried coercion first, adapted when it failed, and is fighting on its own timeline.

Tyler Durden Sun, 09/27/2026 - 07:00
Tyler Durden

zero rss