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Dies-aster: California Diesel Nears $10 A Gallon As Global Fuel Crisis Deepens

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Dies-aster: California Diesel Nears $10 A Gallon As Global Fuel Crisis Deepens

New AAA data show US diesel prices reached a record $6.05 a gallon, signaling severe tightening in global refined-fuel markets.

The squeeze reflects converging pressures: damage to Russian refinery capacity and diesel export halts linked to the Russia-Ukraine war, ongoing disruption at Hormuz, expanding threats to Red Sea shipping, and renewed Chinese buying. Together, these developments threaten both fuel availability and the shipping routes needed to deliver supplies, with conditions appearing to worsen ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote on X that five gas stations in California have maxed out their diesel prices at $9.999 a gallon.

MAXXED OUT at $9.999!! GasBuddy data showing 5 stations in California that have hit the limit and are selling diesel at the dispensers highest possible price: $9.999/gal

— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) September 10, 2026

Gas in bay park San Diego today
BAHAHHAHAHAH
8.99 regular
9.99 diesel (probably higher that’s just as high as the sign can go hahahaha) pic.twitter.com/2B5yMVe8mP

— 𝘾𝙃𝘼𝙕 𝙼𝙽𝚃𝙻𝙼𝚁𝙺𝚃𝚂 (@MntlmrktsChaz) September 10, 2026

The inflation risk extends well beyond gas stations. Diesel powers the industrial economy, and soaring prices risk creating a stagflationary squeeze. Diesel powers trucking, freight rail, farm machinery and construction equipment, so its cost spreads across the economy in many forms, from higher grocery bills to squeezed business margins to even weaker consumer spending.

The latest retail diesel price spike follows a renewed surge in crude, with Brent reaching nearly $110 a barrel overnight before falling to $104 after an IEA report warned about potential demand destruction for industrial fuels.

S&P Global Energy warned Thursday that it does not forecast Middle East crude production to return to prewar levels by the end of 2027.

Citi analysts warned Friday that soaring commodity costs and diesel prices will weigh on many of the companies in their coverage universe through the first half of next year:

In 2025, commodity costs were mildly inflationary except for select inputs such as coffee, gas, and tallow which up meaningful +DD%. However, in 2026, commodity inflation has reaccelerated with acute pressure on direct and indirect energy-based products driven by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East including oil, resins, and diesel/freight costs. Additionally, prices for commodities impacted by tariffs and the global trade dynamics have also increased in 2026 including in aluminum and steel. Many of our companies have highlighted these input cost headwinds, which are pressuring margins this year and which we suspect will remain headwinds into at least 1H'27.

The question becomes whether the fuel price shock can push inflation higher while slowing economic growth, creating a stagflationary squeeze.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 11:00
Tyler Durden

Democracy, As Scheduled

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Democracy, As Scheduled

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank

After breaking above $100/bbl on Wednesday, the rally in Brent crude oil continued yesterday, climbing almost 7% on the day and closing at $108/bbl, the highest price since May. US Treasury yields followed with a sharp bull-flattening, with the 2-year marking its highest level since July 2024 at 4.58%, and the 10-year making its way up to 4.96%—the highest level since October 2023. Meanwhile, US 30-year Treasury yields jumped 7.3bp to 5.36%, the highest level since 2002 and 2-year inflation expectations soared to 2.6%, their highest level since June and more than 0.71ppt above the July lows.

As the US midterm elections approach, many are anxiously trying to gauge whether GOP will be able to retain control of both houses of Congress. As mentioned in yesterday’s installment, one strategy the Trump administration is trying to use to ensure a victory is the promise of a $5,000 “Trump dividend” issued to every American adult if, and only if, Republicans win both houses. Logistics remain unclear as to how the dividends would be funded or issued, especially given Trump’s “condition” that they could only be spent in America, with Trump saying that “we don’t want you going to Canada to spend the money. We don’t want you going to China, to Germany.” Of course, money is fungible, and a $5,000 “America coupon” allows Americans to spend $5,000 elsewhere, especially on their favorite shiny imports. However, regardless if the midterms mark a turning point in the Trump Administration or not, it is possible that they will at least mark an inflection point in the war overseas.

Brent crude oil prices are stretched in part due to the continued hostilities in the Middle East, but American voters generally care more about gasoline prices than military intervention on the other side of the world, and with gasoline prices headed higher and equity prices headed lower, it doesn’t look good for the GOP. This past Tuesday, Trump “truthed” that “Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropped, when we WIN the war with Iran. Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon. MAGA!” and later told reporters that “the war is going to end immediately after the election because [Iran] can’t hold out any longer.”

HISTORY: diesel has crossed $6/gal nationally for the first time ever, according to live GasBuddy data. every truck, every delivery, every package, every grocery run just got more expensive. the cost of moving everything in america just hit a record. Statement⬇️ (9/10/26, 3p CT) pic.twitter.com/zijqu6vD9i

— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) September 10, 2026

But American voters want lower prices now, and Iran is well aware of the US electoral calendar. Even as Trump shares his timeline for when he wants to wrap up the war in Iran, the IRGC has an incentive to escalate going into the midterms and drag out the conflict for as long as possible. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that VP Vance and Secretary of State Rubio estimate that the war could last through January 2029—creating additional problems for both of them, who may put their names on the presidential ballot in 2028.

In the meantime, energy prices screaming higher and inflation expectations are soaring. If Trump wants Fed cuts going into the midterms, the market expects him to be disappointed. The US OIS curve implies investors are pricing in more than a 70% chance of a hike (17.7bp) at the September 16 FOMC rate decision. This still stems from Warsh’s generously forward-guidance-laden speech at Jackson Hole two weeks ago, but renewed fears about the war in Iran have further stoked the markets’ hawkish bias. That said, economists surveyed by Bloomberg see things differently, with 66 out of 78 analysts forecasting a hold, including ourselves. Read more from Rabobank’s resident Fed whisperer, Philip Marey, here.

Hawkish expectations are shared across the pond after the ECB announced its decision to raise the deposit facility rate by 25bp to 2.50%, with ECB President Lagarde referring to the decision as a “no-brainer.” Rabobank’s ECB watcher Bas van Geffen argues in an ECB Post-Decision Report that “the ECB is now at the top end of the neutral range, and any next policy decision will be a trade-off between the risks that face the Eurozone economy,” and therefore urges caution with regard to future policy hikes. Nonetheless, OIS curve pricing implies investors are positioned for more than four ECB hikes by July 2027. Rabobank sees 2.50% as the terminal rate and does not forecast any additional hikes or cuts through the end of 2027, though the upside risks to our view have increased.

Canadian PM Mark Carney has apparently been speaking to Trump in recent days, but not necessarily about trade…rather, about Ukraine. Bloomberg reports that Carney and Zelenskyy spoke at a joint press conference yesterday, during which both parties signed a “declaration of a 100-year partnership…and Canada pledged to boost its drone production capacity and send one-third to Ukraine.” Other promises include Canada’s launch of a national drone marketplace and increased industrial cooperation between Canadian and Ukrainian drone and defense manufacturers.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 10:40
Tyler Durden

Thousands of birds descend on West Coast church in creepy ‘End of Days’ scene

NY Post
1 month ago
It was the kind of scene that makes you check the calendar — and wonder if Halloween came early. As dusk fell over Salem, Oregon, thousands of Vaux’s swifts suddenly began spiraling above a church steeple, twisting into a giant, churning black cloud before plunging down the building’s chimney. A flock of Vaux’s Swifts circle...
Daniel Farr

Gulf States & Iran To Hold Unprecedented Meeting Monday, Seeking Hormuz Strait Deal Breakthrough

Zero Rss
1 month ago
Gulf States & Iran To Hold Unprecedented Meeting Monday, Seeking Hormuz Strait Deal Breakthrough

Iran and some Gulf states are formally meeting in order to push and finalize an Iran+Oman-backed deal and framework for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, coming at the end of a week where multiple tankers have been attacked, including unprecedented US strikes on an Iranian civilian vessel.

"Gulf foreign ministers plan to meet their Iranian counterpart in a push by Oman and Iran to secure buy-in for a deal temporarily managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as regional states seek a pathway to ease hostilities over the waterway," Financial Times reports.

"The gathering, an Omani initiative, would be the first meeting between the top diplomats from the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council and a senior Iranian official since the US and Israel launched the war against the Islamic republic in February," the publication details.

Officials have told FT the meeting is set for Monday in the Omani coastal city of Salalah, though details and arrangements are still being finalized.

Global oil prices have been steadily moving up in the last week, amid further 'limited' US-Iran tit-for-tat exchanges of blows in Hormuz, southern Iran, and beyond - including Jordan, which saw waves of ballistic missile attacks on a US base.

Meanwhile Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has congratulated President Trump for keeping up the pressure on Iran, which has included unprecedented sanctions.

Netanyahu stated on X the US and Israel have achieved "historic progress" over the last year, which has in turn made Iran and its allies an "evil axis… weaker than ever."

The Bibi message which was timed for the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks specifically echoed George W. Bush's "axis of evil" phrase which was a feature of the early so-called Global War on Terror (GWOT).

"The people of Israel stand with the people of the United States and with President Trump in confronting the forces of terror," said Netanyahu.

And yet Iran is showing no signs of backing down at this point, but has repeatedly vowed it can endure the storm of sanctions and US attacks, even for 'years' down the line. Trump while speaking to supporters in Dallas has expressed no regrets over launching Operation Epic Fury.

On the other side, IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi has stated in the middle of a week which has witnessed plenty of escalation in the Gulf that, "The imposed war, which involved the world's most powerful nations, has ended in certain periods, but the nature of the conflict continues. For the first time, this conflict has directly inflicted strategic damage on the United States, impacting the country's security and economic equations."

He issued the following list for the US to reach an end to the conflict. "If the enemy desires an end to this situation, they must"...

  • completely cease the war
  • refrain from further threats
  • withdraw the Israeli army from Lebanon
  • end the siege of Yemen
  • release the $24 billion of Iranian assets that have been frozen
  • cease any interference in the country's nuclear and missile programs

This definitely marks a raised bar, to be sure, after this summer the MoU complete ceased, and negotiations vanished. There's no way Washington complies with even half of the conditions, at this rate. According to the latest from the Iranian Foreign Ministry:

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson says Strait of Hormuz security cannot be guaranteed while US aggression and the naval blockade continue, Tehran Times reports.

The claim that Hormuz will become irrelevant has partially come true, but not as Trump anticipated.

Keeping the Strait half-open won't make much of a difference if the Houthis close Baab el-Mandeb.

The idea that time was on Trump's side seems to have dramatically flipped.

— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) September 11, 2026

With Trump struggling to rally his base to go to the polls and vote in the November midterm elections, Tehran has no reason to back down at this point, seeking to impose a steep economic and political cost on Washington and specifically the Trump administration.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/11/2026 - 10:20
Tyler Durden

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