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The Fed Should Be Concerned: Job Market Vibes Vs Data

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

The Job Market – Vibes vs Data

It seems like we are on the cusp of an agreement with Iran. We will help analyze the market implications in a SITREP if and when the details are released.

In the meantime, the one question that seems to puzzle everyone, is what is the state of the job market?

Yes, there are all sorts of questions around AI, the AI and data center spend, affordability, and inflation, but the state of the job market seems to be the most puzzling of late.

The juxtaposition of daily discussions about no hiring, and fears of AI job losses, versus some stellar headline data.

Record low consumer sentiment versus ongoing spending remaining strong.

Mixed (at worst) evidence of delinquencies. There is little (that I could find) evidence of a broad-based increase in delinquencies. If you squint hard, you can see evidence of pressure on the lower income part of the population, but as of now, that’s about it.

Unemployment Rate

The last two headline numbers (from the Establishment Survey), as of now (before revisions), were 185k and 115k.Big numbers, an obvious A+ in terms of grading.

While the headline is important, for most of the country, within days of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release, we started to talk less about the headline jobs and more about the unemployment rate. So that seems like a good starting point for exploring the jobs data.

We used the “official” titles from Bloomberg for the Unemployment rate (blue) and the Underemployment rate (black).

The unemployment rate has been trending down and it is close to its best level in 2 years. Let’s give the unemployment rate a grade of A- (though that feels a bit stingy).

The underemployment rate is a broader definition of unemployment. It captures people stuck in part-time, low-paying, or skill-mismatched jobs. The skill-mismatched subcategory (from AI) is the most interesting to me. Is that evidence of AI taking good entry level professional jobs?

The underemployment rate came down early this year, but from the highest levels in the past 5 years. It has been trending higher and is well above the 5-year average. I’d give underemployment a B- grade (though that feels a bit generous).

The unemployment rate is based on the Household Survey.

There are a few things that stand out:

• The gap higher for both the size of the workforce and those employed, that occurred as of December of 2024, appears to be part of annual revisions. It stands out, but is largely noise.

• The size of the labor force has not shrunk much since President Trump took office. I honestly have no idea how many illegal workers show up in the data, or whether they don’t show up in the data. Given the crackdown on illegal workers, I bet most of those jobs never showed up in the data (again, I will admit to being confused how people working illegally were counted in the jobs data, but I’m told by people much more into the weeds on this stuff, that it happens). In any case, I was a bit surprised by the labor force data in the past year remaining almost stable.

• Both the size of the labor force and the number working has shrunk in 2026! I don’t see any way to make fewer workers sound good.

  • The Establishment Survey has jobs of 160k for Jan, -156k for Feb, 185k for March, and 116k for April. Pretty darn good.

  • The Household Survey has -895k in Jan (adjustments included), -185k for Feb, -64k for March, and -226k for April. Even ignoring January, the last 3 months have been awful.

• While the Household Survey is wildly inaccurate, we seem to accept it for the unemployment rate, so why don’t we spend any time looking at it for signs regarding the job market. Again, just weird that it is deemed so “useless” for jobs, but is A OK for determining the unemployment rate? If we used the change in Establishment jobs the past few months, we’d probably be under 4% - which would be amazing!

• The final most salient point in how I think about these two data series, is that they tend to converge over time. They can deviate, often for months, but they tend to converge which tells me that we are probably headed for some weaker headline prints in the coming months.

For those of you not familiar with how I think about the two surveys used for jobs data:

• The Establishment Survey is largely inaccurate, and the Household Survey is wildly inaccurate! From the BLS the NFP data is +/- 122k at the 90% confidence level. For the Household it is +/- 676k at the 90% confidence level! (I used AI for that data, take it with a grain of salt, but you can dig deeper on the BLS site – starting with Employment Situation Technical Note).

  • Imagine reporting your quarterly returns as we made somewhere between losing $1 billion and making $5 billion, but we won’t really know for at least a year.

  • When you really think about the margin of error, it seems almost insane how many really smart people are forced to treat something that amounts to at best, a kind of, maybe reasonable, rough guess as to the current situation as gospel truth. The BLS takes the time to point out that a reading of +50k, gives a 90% confidence that the actual number of jobs is between -72k and +172k (meaning 10% of the time, like once a year, it is likely to be off by more than that!).

I’m almost disgusted with myself (even more than usual) that I am going to try and make a point using data that is just so bizarre!

But the Household Survey is a solid D. If there is any convergence in the two different jobs totals, then we should expect some pain in the Establishment Survey (i.e., the headline number).

I am not sure what to make of the Labor Force Participation Rate (hence the color purple rather than green or red).

• Lower participation rates can occur when times are good. Families are making so much money that a member of the family can step out of the labor force. Maybe stock market gains are so great that you don’t need to work? Overtime pay is so good, one member can step back?

• Lower participation rates can occur when times are bad. People get so frustrated with being able to find work, they just give up and drop out of the pool of people trying to get work.

It’s all a bit of a guess, but I suspect the labor force participation is a negative signal.

I continue to believe that the JOLTs data overstates jobs available (it doesn’t fully capture how many ghost jobs are out there, how many ads are on employment websites that are stale or weren’t removed, etc.).

Even if I’m not correct on my assumption that it is overstated, the jobs available picture deteriorated over the past several years and hasn’t really improved. That would provide some support that labor force participation is dropping due to frustration with the ability to find a job.

My “favorite” piece of data is the QUIT data. I like it because it “crowd sourced.” It is one of the few pieces of data where we get to see what the average worker is thinking. People tend to QUIT when they know they can find another job easily! People tend to stay in jobs, even ones they don’t like, until they find a better job, in a tough labor market. That seems to fit.

I don’t like the HIRE rate quite as much, but it is difficult to fake. It did tick higher recently (I put some green on the chart) but it is NOT showing robust hiring.

This whole section earns a C.

Uber Eats or Law School

According to AI “Law school applications have surged roughly 15% to 33%!”

Nothing says, I’m worried about AI, so I should go to law school, because certainly AI won’t affect the need for junior lawyers.

We tend to see law school applications spike when it is difficult for college graduates to get jobs. We saw this with the GFC. Then, at least, it made more sense. Law school is a great place to hide out for a few years and wind up with a pretty good job if you can do well. But right now? If it is a bad time to graduate from college, I am not sure that in 3 years (as AI improves) it is going to be a great time to graduate from law school. I could be wrong, but off hand, becoming a lawyer “suddenly” (see the spike in applications) seems to be a traditional response in a world that is rapidly evolving.

All of which brings me to my least favorite part of the jobs data – the birth/death model!

I know that not all of the adjustment passes through to the establishment number. But I still think it is useful to think about this number.

My contention is, and remains that:

• At one time people applied for an EIN (Employment Identification Number) because they were creating a real business. Hire a couple of people and make a go of it.

• I believe that with the gig economy people apply for an EIN when they are looking for a side hustle to make some extra money. One client this past week told me that one of the fintech firms provides basically one click functionality to create an LLC and get an EIN. For those with rental properties, get an EIN for each one? For more sophisticated participants get one for Uber, Lyft, etc.?

The gig economy has become a major way to supplement income. With more tools making it easier to run gig jobs as businesses, more will do it. I believe the Big Beautiful Tax Bill provides some benefits to those running their gig businesses as such.

I think that the number of jobs created for each EIN application is less than 1 (many are already working, so just adding another enterprise to their toolkit), hence the birth/death model methodology massively overstates jobs.

• Given the large annual job revisions we’ve been getting, I think there is a very strong case, that overstatement of jobs during the course of the year via the birth/death adjustment is the prime culprit.

This year’s birth/death model seems bizarrely similar to last year’s (and the year before):

• -61k in Jan 2026 vs -105k in Jan 2025 vs -121k in Jan 2024.

• 90k vs 136k vs 151k in Feb, -47k vs -33k vs -21k in March, and 391k vs 393k vs 363k in April.

We have seen massive downward annual revisions. There has been work done blaming much of it on how the birth/death model works. Since we are repeating the pattern in the data month by month, maybe we can assume we will once again be told at the end of the year that the actual jobs were a lot worse than reported?

This section isn’t particularly “damning” but I find it hard to see how it supports anyone arguing that the labor market is strong!

Where The Jobs Are

The first 4 months of the year have added 304k jobs to the economy (the Establishment data as of today).

221k jobs have been added in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry.

73% of jobs have been added in one industry. Yes, a large and vital industry, but that seems like a lot.

• Is some of this related to programs enabling you to get paid to take care of a family member? I think those are great programs, but is that job creation in the way we think of job creation?

This sector doesn’t scream “growth.” If anything, it at least whispers “affordability” as for most of us, healthcare is an expense and one that I’ve seen do nothing but go up (despite how it is calculated for CPI).

The US CPI Urban Consumer Medical Health Insurance City Average has declined 22% since the start of 2021! I know they follow some calculation, but whatever the calculation is, it doesn’t reflect the reality of what employees and employers face on the health insurance premium front.

Yet another reason, that the AFFORDABILITY issue is bigger and more painful than the CPI/Inflation issue. But that rant, is a rant for another day.

Bottom Line

There seems to be, at first blush, an inconsistency between the “vibe” on jobs and the published data.

I think that inconsistency goes away if we broaden what official data we look at.

The Fed should be concerned about jobs. At the moment they aren’t, but they should be.

I would like to see a lot more jobs being created in the ProSec™ industries, than we’ve seen of late. Maybe, if we can move beyond the Iran war, the admin will provide even more support, more quickly to these crucial industries! They are working on it as you read this, but if the President is able to direct even more attention to this, it would help.

One last word on AI and jobs. We don’t know what it does for jobs going forward, but the AI and data center buildout is creating jobs right now! We can (and will) debate the outlook for jobs as AI improves and becomes more prevalent, but the buildout does create a lot of jobs – not just in the construction, but also in the power generation and other adjacent businesses.

Without the AI and data center spend, we’d have even more concerns about the current job market, but that spend looks set to continue, which will help, and maybe buy us the time to get ProSec™ more fully ramped up!

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 12:00

NANO Nuclear Soars As It Turns Revenue-Generating With Strategic Acquisition

NANO Nuclear announced the acquisition of Secured Transportation Services, instantly converting itself from a pre-revenue developer into a revenue-generating business with in-house secure transport capabilities for nuclear materials.

With the $13 million acquisition of Secured Transportation Services - a nuclear logistics, transportation and services company specializing in the secure transport of radioactive and nuclear materials - NANO continues to vertically integrate itself into what will soon be the leading provider of turnkey nuclear energy solutions to the AI supercycle. Secured Transportation Services generated a profit of about $1.3 million in the twelve months ended Dec. 31, 2025. 

As NANO founder and Chairman Jay Yu put it: “NNE goes from pre-revenue to revenue generating overnight with [this] acquisition.”

Secured Transportation Services provides Nano Nuclear with the logistical infrastructure needed to vertically integrate the nuclear supply chain.

This move adds critical logistics infrastructure to NANO’s portfolio of portable microreactors and advanced fuel fabrication efforts. Secured Transportation Services brings established operations and regulatory know-how for moving sensitive nuclear cargo.

The capability vertically integrates the supply chain and removes a major execution bottleneck for future deployments.

We’ve tracked NANO’s aggressive buildout for months: the modular reactor maker, which according to many is one of the few that carries the promise of powering the AI revolution at a realistic cost, has pushed forward on its microreactor designs and fuel cycle ambitions. This latest deal fits the pattern: rapid, targeted acquisitions that assemble a full-stack nuclear platform.

The company is also demonstrating tangible progress in the deployment of their first-of-a-kind microreactor with the recent acceptance and docketing of their construction permit for the Kronos project in Illinois.

The acquisition also positions NNE to serve the surging power demand from AI data centers and remote industrial sites. Secure, reliable transport of fuel and components becomes a competitive moat as deployment timelines compress.

With this single move, NANO Nuclear has shifted from concept-stage to cash-flowing operations.

Shares of the nuclear micro modular reactor and technology company rose 13% to $29.98 on Tuesday. Shares are up 25% year to date, but they have a long way to go to catch up to their October all time highs north of $60. 

Despite the streak of favorable news in recent months, the nuclear sector has been unduly punished as the market's cash rotation has benefited data centers "picks and shovels" stocks, while ignoring the companies which are expected to power the entire AI revolution. NANO continues to be one of the most shorted names in the space, with 24% of the float shorted.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 11:25

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Thomas Massie Files To Run In 2028 After Losing Primary

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has filed paperwork to run again in 2028, just days after losing the Republican primary for the Kentucky House seat he has held for more than a decade.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) speaks during a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Second Amendment hearing in Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington on April 15, 2026. Luke Johnson/Getty Images

The May 25 filing with the Federal Election Commission lists Massie, 55, as a Republican candidate for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District. Massie said the move allows him to keep raising money for his political operation while he decides what comes next.

"This allows me to raise funds to continue my political operations supporting my position as a current office holder and as a potential candidate for federal office," Massie wrote in a post on X. "I haven't made a final decision about which office to seek, if I run."

I filed with FEC for the 2028 House race.

This allows me to raise funds to continue my political operations supporting my position as a current office holder and as a potential candidate for federal office.

I haven’t made a final decision about which office to seek, if I run. pic.twitter.com/heHxDnu31o

— Thomas Massie for Congress (@MassieforKY) May 25, 2026

The filing also comes after Massie drew the ire of President Donald Trump, who opposed him over several policy disputes and Massie's 2025 vote against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Trump cannot run for reelection in 2028.

Trump endorsed former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, who defeated Massie in the recent Republican primary for the seat Massie currently holds. Massie had taken about 76 percent of the primary vote and 99.6 percent of the general election vote in 2024.

As The Epoch Times notes further, during his concession speech, some of Massie's supporters chanted "2028." He asked whether they wanted him to run for Congress again. They said no, then began chanting "president."

"All right, well you've made a compelling argument, ... but I need a medical margarita right now, and we'll talk about it later," Massie said.

During an appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press" over the weekend, Massie said he would not rule out running for president or county commissioner in 2028.

"I will not rule out anything, and right now I'm not going to rule in anything," he said.

"Look, I've spent the last five days on my farm with my grandkids, and my cattle and my peach trees, and it's a pretty nice life. I don't know if I want to screw that up again. I've been in Congress 14 years, fighting. Every hour that passes, I get decompressed a little bit more. It's like coming up from the bottom of the ocean. And I'll take some time and decide what's next. But I think I will stay engaged in some way or shape. Maybe it's from the outside. I've been exposing what's going on in Washington, D.C. for years and I'll keep doing it."

Massie has served in the House since 2012.

He said on May 22 that he would not be requesting a recount in his race, writing in a May 22 post on X that he does not think he lost due to fraudulent votes, mail-in ballots, or mistabulated results.

"There's a quiet all-out war for the future of our country," he said. "Let us not misdirect our precious resources."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 11:00

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AI Startup Says It Will Pay People $2,000 A Month to Masturbate... Yes, Really

Authored by Jason Nelson via Decrypt.co,

• Joi AI is hiring 10 “masturbation consultants” at $2,000 for a month to test an AI-guided masturbation feature and document its effects on stress, sleep, mood, and confidence.

• The feature uses mood-matched AI voice sessions, and consultants would submit written feedback and questionnaires directly to the company.

• Joi AI says the campaign is intended to collect product feedback while drawing attention to AI’s growing role in sexual wellness and digital intimacy.

Joi AI says it will pay people $2,000 a month to masturbate. Yes, you read that right.

The AI companion startup is hiring 10 “masturbation consultants” to test a feature called Daily Guided Masturbation, which uses mood-matched AI voice sessions to guide users through the experience. Participants would document how regular use affects stress, sleep quality, mood, and confidence. The four-week role is open to adults 18 and older in the U.S. and the U.K.

“The role is real, and we’ve had great responses since the posting went live,” Joi AI Head of Brand and Communication Julie Levin told Decrypt.

we’re hiring 10 Masturbation Consultants

$2,000/month to test our new Daily Guided Masturbation feature and document the effects on stress, sleep and mood

yes it’s real
yes you get paid

— Joi AI (@joi___ai) May 18, 2026

The listing describes ideal candidates as “articulate, observant, and impossible to blush”—people who can describe sensations “better than a sommelier describes a wine.” The posting also promises flexible scheduling, and “the most interesting ‘What do you do for a living?’ answer at any party.”

Joi AI is an online platform that includes AI-generated avatars, voice interactions, and personalized chat experiences built around companionship and intimacy. Joi AI describes the new consultant role as structured product testing tied directly to its new feature.

“The role involves testing and giving feedback on the mood-matched AI voice-guided sessions, and providing feedback on the overall user experience,” Levin told Decrypt.

According to Levin, participants complete guided sessions and submit written questionnaires directly to the Joi AI team. Sample prompts ask whether the voice matched the selected mood, how immersive the session felt, and whether lags or pauses disrupted the experience.

The listing comes as platforms including Replika and Character.AI have built large user bases around AI-driven relationships and conversational experiences. Joi AI operates primarily through its website rather than major app stores. Levin said the company has more than 1 million monthly active users worldwide and millions of interactions each month, but declined to disclose total download figures.

Unlike AI assistants like Alexa or Siri, designed to help with everyday tasks, Joi AI operates in a smaller corner of that market focused on sexual exploration, fantasy, and digital intimacy. The company rebranded from EVA AI in April 2025, during what it described as its first Dating Stress Awareness Day campaign.

“Joi AI is focused on making AI companionship more immersive, personalized, and emotionally responsive,” Levin said. “We’re innovating features like Daily Guided Masturbation to make AI a more intuitive part of people’s everyday wellness routines, not just a novelty experience.”

The hiring push also comes as studies suggest AI companion use is becoming more common among people already in relationships, often without their partner’s knowledge. A new report from the Wheatley Institute at Brigham Young University and the Institute for Family Studies found that among dating, engaged, and married young adults who regularly used AI romantic companions, nearly 3 in 10 said their real-life partner did not know about it.

AI companion platforms are also facing growing legal scrutiny, including lawsuits alleging psychological harm to minors and deceptive chatbot behavior. Examples include a settled case against Character.AI over a Florida teen’s suicide and a separate lawsuit from Pennsylvania accusing the company of allowing a chatbot to pose as a licensed psychiatrist.

Levin said the hiring campaign was intended to generate discussion as well as recruit testers.

“It was both,” Levin said. “We are genuinely looking for people who can provide thoughtful feedback in this category, but the campaign was also designed to spark conversation around how people are increasingly using AI for masturbation as a healthy, relaxing habit.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 10:40