SSDD: with stocks set to hit new record highs, the hope this morning once again is that the days may be numbered for the war in Iran, with momentum building since the start of the weekend that a deal could be in the works. Brent, which ended last week at $103.54/bbl, is this morning trading at $97.87/bbl, around -5.48% lower than Friday’s close. However, Brent had got as low as $96.02 late yesterday before news overnight that US and Israeli jets conducted fresh strikes in Southern Iran, hitting missile launch sites and mine-laying boats. These actions were described as "defensive" and not an end to the ceasefire with Iran.
Net net, optimism is still elevated that an agreement can be made to end the war. We have been here before, of course, but it has felt for some time that the move towards peace has been three steps forward and one or two back. It is now 48 days since the main kinetic encounters, and according to DB's Jim Reid, such a prolonged truce and ceasefire would not have held if the US genuinely wanted to continue strikes, unless there was absolutely no alternative. Last night's targeted action is clearly a warning shot that the ceasefire is fragile though, so we will have to see what the next few days of negotiations bring.
Moving on to the rest of this week, inflation once again dominates with important price data across the US, Europe and Japan. In the US, the clear focal point is Thursday’s April personal income and spending report (Thursday), which contains the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. DB economists expect core PCE inflation at around +0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from March, with the year-on-year rate edging higher. This release matters not just for the inflation print itself, but for how it fits with the broader narrative of sticky services inflation and resilient demand.
On the real economy side of the same report (Thursday), economists expect momentum to cool after a very strong March, with personal consumption growth slowing back to around +0.3% month-on-month and personal income rising by roughly +0.4%. This comes after a hawkish speech from Waller on Friday. He discussed how the recent labor market and inflation data had caused him to reevaluate the balance of risks with inflation becoming the “driving force” behind monetary policy in the near term. In particular, he noted that he would support changing language in the statement to remove the easing bias and make it clear that “a rate cut is no more likely in the future than a rate increase”. In light of this there is a lot of Fedspeak to watch this week. You can see a list in the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual but keep an eye on Minneapolis’s Kashkari (today) and Dallas’s Logan (tomorrow), both of whom had dissented against the easing bias in the April statement. They are likely to repeat their view that the stance of monetary policy should be more balanced, particularly as inflation risks remain front of mind.
Staying with the Fed, last Friday, DB's Chief US economist, Matt Luzzetti, wrote an interesting piece entitled “overinsured” where he discusses how the Fed has delivered 175bps of rate cuts in this cycle even as inflation has remained well above target, framing the last round as “insurance” or “risk management” cuts in response to elevated downside labor market risks. Matt suggests that relative to a set of standard policy rules, the first set of cuts in 2024 was appropriate. But following the second set last year, and the recent acceleration of inflation, the fed funds rate is now significantly below all policy rule settings. This finding is robust to different plausible estimates of r-star and the use of economic forecasts instead of current inflation and unemployment in the policy rules.
Beyond PCE, Thursday also brings durable goods orders (Thursday), where our economists look for a modest headline increase consistent with steady but unspectacular capital spending momentum. Earlier in the week, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index (tomorrow) is expected to edge lower, potentially reflecting the cumulative impact of higher rates and policy uncertainty. Weekly initial jobless claims (Thursday) remain an important high-frequency signal on labor market conditions, although holiday effects may add some volatility.
In Europe, attention turns to the May flash inflation prints at the end of the week, with Germany, France, Italy and Spain all reporting on Friday, ahead of the Eurozone aggregate the following week. DB economists expect inflation to remain above target across the region. Alongside the data, the ECB publishes the account of its April meeting (Thursday) and its Financial Stability Review (Wednesday), offering further insight into how policymakers are balancing lingering inflation pressures against softer growth and financial stability considerations.
In Asia, Japan is the key focus. Friday’s Tokyo CPI (Friday) will provide an early read on national inflation trends, alongside April industrial production and retail sales (Friday). Our economists expect inflation measures to firm modestly, underscoring that price pressures remain present even as activity data stay mixed. Elsewhere, China releases industrial profits (tomorrow), Australia publishes its April CPI (Wednesday), and the RBNZ announces its latest policy decision (tomorrow), where most economists expect the cash rate to be left unchanged.
On the corporate side, earnings highlights include US tech names such as Dell, Marvell and Salesforce, alongside consumer-facing firms including Costco and Dollar Tree, with most results clustered around mid-to-late week.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Tuesday May 26
Wednesday May 27
Thursday May 28
Friday May 29
Finally, looking at just the US, the economic data releases this week are the durable goods report and the PCE inflation report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Vice Chair Jefferson and Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman; Governors Cook and Waller; and Presidents Goolsbee, Logan, Williams, Musalem, Barkin, Schmid, Paulson, and Daly
Tuesday, May 26
Wednesday, May 27
Thursday, May 28
Friday, May 29
Source: DB, Goldman
Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 10:00ASP Isotopes cleared a major operational milestone at its Pretoria Silicon-28 enrichment facility, restarting the first 18 stages, and has now run them for over three weeks at target enrichment levels. Commercial shipments to U.S. customers are on track for Q3 2026.
The stock was up over 25% in early trading, back at its highest levels since January...
The restart follows nine months of targeted engineering work on non-core components. Fixes will now roll out across the remaining stages, and samples shipped to a U.S. customer last August already confirmed enrichment performance matched theoretical models.
Three commercial contracts are already signed with American buyers.
“As we scale our production capabilities over the coming quarters, both of these applications will be central to our strategy,” said Stefano Marani, President of ASP Isotopes’ Electronics and Space division. “We have seen considerable interest in many isotopes to enable next-generation technologies.”
The material is headed for two high-stakes applications. In quantum computing, enriched Silicon-28 dramatically extends qubit coherence times by reducing nuclear spin noise. In conventional semiconductors, the isotope’s superior thermal conductivity improves heat dissipation and device reliability.
We discussed ASPI's silicon segment back in October when they announced their largest ever supply contract and acquired a U.S.-based radiopharmacy. “The company is targeting demand ’for isotopes such as Silicon-28, which will enable quantum computing, and Molybdenum-100, Molybdenum-98, Zinc-68, Ytterbium-176, and Nickel-64 for new, emerging healthcare applications, as well as Chlorine-37, Lithium-6, and Uranium-235 for green energy applications.’”
The company is now making progress on multiple fronts, including the helium sector after completing its acquisition of Renergen, which has a project in South Africa.
Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 09:45Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,
Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a message on May 26 calling for greater unity across the Muslim world against the United States and Israel, saying that the chants “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” will become the rallying slogans of Muslims and “the oppressed of the world.”
Khamenei’s message was to mark Hajj, the annual Islamic pilgrimage. In it, Khamenei described a historic struggle against U.S. and Israeli influence in the Middle East, repeatedly invoking the revolutionary slogan “Allahu Akbar” as the “weapon” that had enabled Iran and its allies to resist outside pressure.
He said Iran had succeeded in “making the Zionist regime helpless under its severe blows during the second imposed war” and in delivering “a harsh slap to aggressive America,” while thwarting efforts to force Tehran into submission.
The statement also praised what it called the “Resistance Front,” saying Iranian forces and allied fighters in Lebanon had secured “notable victories” against “the two terrorist armies, armed to the teeth by the American-Zionist side.”
Khamenei coupled the militant rhetoric with a broader appeal for cooperation among Muslim-majority countries, calling on regional countries to “no longer serve as shields for American bases” while denouncing Israel as a “faltering” regime that was nearing “the final stages of its cursed life.”
Fragile Diplomacy ContinuesKhamenei’s message came as the United States, Israel, and Iran remain locked in a tense standoff following months of fighting that included U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, Iranian retaliation across the region, and disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Although a ceasefire has largely held, negotiations continue over a proposed memorandum of understanding intended to end hostilities and establish a framework for future talks.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 25 that negotiations with Tehran were “proceeding nicely” but warned that failure to secure an acceptable agreement could lead to renewed military action.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio similarly said Trump would not accept a “bad deal” with Iran and warned that Washington would pursue “another way” if diplomacy failed.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the U.S. State Department in Washington on April 14, 2026. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
“The President said he’s not in a hurry. He’s not going to make a bad deal,” Rubio said during a briefing in India. “We’re going to give diplomacy every chance to succeed before we explore the alternatives.”
Details of the proposed memorandum of understanding remain unclear, with Trump saying that “nobody has seen it, or knows what it is.”
According to Iranian officials, the proposed memorandum focuses primarily on ending the fighting, easing sanctions and blockades, and reopening maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz, while postponing the most contentious nuclear issues—such as the fate of its stockpile of enriched uranium—for later negotiations.
Trump said in a May 25 post on Truth Social that Iran’s uranium would either be “destroyed in place” under the proposed deal, or handed over to the United States, or taken to another “acceptable location” for disposal under the auspices of the Atomic Energy Commission or equivalent authority.
He has also linked a broader regional settlement to an expansion of the Abraham Accords, saying countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan should normalize relations with Israel as part of a comprehensive peace pact.
Iran Eyes Strategic ShiftSenior Israeli security officials told Epoch Magazine Israel that Tehran views the emerging memorandum not just as a mechanism to halt the fighting, but as a potentially transformative geopolitical turning point.
According to the officials, Iranian leaders increasingly view the shift from direct military confrontation toward gradual negotiations as a strategic success after months of military, economic, and diplomatic pressure from the United States and Israel.
Iranian media reports, cited by the Israeli officials, have portrayed Tehran as successfully pushing Washington toward a step-by-step negotiating framework rather than a rapid comprehensive settlement.
A woman holds up pictures of Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei (L) and his father, the slain Ali Khamenei, in a state-organized rally celebrating the birthday of Imam Reza, the 8th Shiite Muslim imam, and supporting the supreme leader, in Tehran, Iran, on April 29, 2026. Vahid Salemi/AP Photo
From Tehran’s perspective, the officials said, the evolving arrangement is being presented domestically as evidence that the United States retreated from maximalist demands and failed to achieve key objectives through force. These include the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, weakening the Islamic Republic, and diminishing Iran’s regional influence.
That interpretation aligns with the tone of Khamenei’s Hajj message, which presented Iran and the broader “Resistance Front” as growing in power while portraying the United States and Israel as weakening.
Campaign Assessment in FocusDebate has emerged in Washington and among foreign policy analysts over whether the U.S.–Israeli campaign against Iran has been a success or a failure.
The White House has strongly defended the operation, pointing to Iran having suffered major military setbacks, including damage to missile stockpiles, naval assets, and leadership structures.
Emergency crews work at the site of a US-Israeli strike on a residential building that also destroyed the adjacent Rafi-Nia Synagogue in Tehran, Iran, on April 7, 2026. Majid Saeedi/Getty Images
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said the United States had “met or surpassed all of our military objectives in ‘Operation Epic Fury.’”
“President Trump holds all the cards and wisely keeps all options on the table,” she added.
Alexander Gray, a former senior adviser in Trump’s first term and now chief executive officer of the American Global Strategies consultancy, said that the war had pulled Gulf states closer to the United States and away from China, while the blow to Iranian military capabilities should be seen as a strategic success.
Critics contend that Tehran has survived the assault while retaining key leverage, particularly its ability to threaten global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations, described the conflict as “a war that was designed to be a short-term romp for Trump” that was now turning into “a long-term strategic failure.”
A couple with a dog ride a motorbike at Enqelab Square in Tehran, Iran, on April 28, 2026. Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images
Other analysts have argued that Iran’s leadership increasingly views survival itself as a victory, especially as negotiations move away from immediate dismantlement of Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure and toward a slower diplomatic process.
“What they discovered is they can exercise that leverage and with few consequences for them,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East, adding that Iran appeared confident it could outlast Trump by being able to tolerate more economic pain.
Iran’s effective control of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil soaring, with prices at the pump for American drivers jumping to a four-year high, pushing consumer sentiment to record lows.
Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 09:30After declining MoM for the first time since June 2025 in February, US home prices in America's 20 largest cities were expected to dip again in March (according to the latest data from S&P Cotality Case-Shiller) and they did, dropping 0.16% MoM (worse than the 0.10% MoM drop expected) leaving prices up just 0.83% YoY...
Source: Bloomberg
That is the weakest annual appreciation since July 2023.
"More than half of the 20 major U.S. housing markets recorded year-over-year price declines in March, reflecting a broadening and deepening housing slowdown," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
The trend is clear across almost every city...
And the two-year chart looks particularly ugly...
"The geographic divergence remains stark," Godec continued.
"Midwest and Northeast markets are sustaining modest growth, while much of the Sun Belt and Western regions are still seeing declines. Chicago led all cities with a 6.1% annual gain, followed by New York (4.0%) and Cleveland (3.0%). In contrast, Seattle’s 2.5% year-over-year decline was the steepest in March, with Denver (-2.0%), Tampa (-1.9%), Dallas (-1.7%), and Phoenix (-1.6%) joining Seattle among the weakest performers. Even Los Angeles (-1.6%) and Washington (-0.1%) turned negative.
The spread between the strongest and weakest markets – 8.6 percentage points, from Chicago’s +6.1% to Seattle’s -2.5% – highlights how localized this housing cycle has become. (Detroit’s March reading remains unavailable due to local transaction data delays.)
Given the lag in Case-Shiller data, one could argue that prices should be starting to rise here...
"Mortgage rates, meanwhile, have resumed climbing. The 30-year fixed rate dipped below 6% in late February but rebounded to roughly 6.4% by the end of March, re-intensifying the affordability squeeze on buyers and potentially further damping home sales and price growth," Godec concluded.
But the oddly tight coupling with Fed Reserves suggests the path is lower...
Interestingly, for the 10th consecutive month, inflation outpaced national home price appreciation, with March CPI running 2.6 percentage points above the 0.7% annual gain, extending the streak of negative real home price returns.
Is this Trump's 'affordability' plan kicking in? Or just lagged rates finally impacting reality.
Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 09:07