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The "Bad Blood" singer crashed the "Fifty Shades of Grey" actress' opening monologue on "SNL" Saturday.

The "Bad Blood" singer crashed the "Fifty Shades of Grey" actress' opening monologue on "SNL" Saturday.

Hurricane Nolo is moving west across the Pacific, crossing the International Date Line into the Western Pacific over the next 12 hours.

The US Doesn't Have An Oil Problem - It Has A Refinery Problem

One of the enduring weaknesses of the modern US economy is the lack of redundancy.  As long as most of the world is operating normally and there are no serious geopolitical disruptions, America's "just in time" system works fine.  But, throw a monkey-wrench into distribution, global exports, freight systems, shipping or elements of production and cracks quickly form in the armor.  

This does not mean that the US economy can't adapt; the pandemic shutdowns were horrifically pointless but they did prove that the system has the ability to function despite deep deficiencies.  However, when it comes to the management of vital resources, such as energy resources, it's clear that some changes need to be made in the near term.  

Before the war in Iran a large portion of the public was oblivious to the fact that the US is the largest exporter of oil in the world, and of the foreign oil supplies we do receive, only 8% come from Gulf nation producers.  A mere 7% of those supplies travel through the Strait of Hormuz.  In other words, the US doesn't rely on the Gulf for oil.  With the new Venezuelan deal and oil flows from the gulf back to 98% of pre-conflict levels, the war is even less of a concern when it comes to US energy.  

The problem is, there is a global oil refinery capacity shortage, and the US is not adapting as it should.  

Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian refineries have recently forced the Kremlin to cut off all diesel exports to other countries.  Russia is the second largest supplier of diesel in the world with 12% of all exports.  This loss to global markets is straining already struggling refineries and causing prices to climb.  The only country with the ability to increase refining capacity quickly is the US, but it's not happening.  

The last time a full-conversion refinery was built in the US was Marathon’s Garyville, Louisiana plant. It came online in 1977 at about 200,000 b/d and has since been expanded to about 617,000 b/d.  Most U.S. capacity growth since the 1970s has come from expanding existing sites, not building new ones.    

In five decades, no major infrastructure has been added.  This means that as aging plants shut down, or as they are closed down due to state policies, US refining capacity will continue to fall and the ceiling for supply vs demand will get tighter and tighter. 

Currently, national demand for distilled products is 8.7 million b/d, and production provides only 9.5 million b/d - That's an extremely narrow gap at 95%-98%.  Unfortunately, this gap has narrowed further due to refinery closures in 2025.  The largest drop in U.S. capacity came from the shutdown of the LyondellBasell’s Houston plant (about 264,000 barrels per day) and the Phillips 66’s Los Angeles plant (about 139,000 barrels per day). Together those removed about 400,000 b/d; small expansions elsewhere offset some of that, but not enough.  

The Houston plant was built in 1918 and was so old any expansion or updating would have been too costly.  Plants in California, on the other hand, have been closing due to crushing regulations.  Valero’s Benicia plant (about 145,000 b/d) stopped refining this spring and was taken out of monthly capacity later.

The answer to refinery shrinkage has long been "expansion creep" in existing facilities because it's faster than building brand new infrastructure, but this is not going to help for much longer.  Current facilities are limited in their ability add on more capacity and these measures do not account for abrupt global changes, wars and crisis events. 

The US needs redundancy, not "just in time" economics.     

Estimates suggest that up to eight new refineries (for heavy and light crude) running at least 250,000 b/d would be needed to increase the capacity ceiling while adding modern infrastructure and redundancy to offset aging plants.  A safer margin would be demand at 85%-90% of capacity.  This would also help the US to add supplies to any global market shortfall and keep prices from skyrocketing in the event of ongoing wars.  

What's stopping this from happening?  There's a number of obstacles.  First and foremost, no one wants to sink billions of dollars into a new facility based on higher gas margins that might be temporary.  In other words, investors will wait around until there's a catastrophic disruption and prices go out of control, but by then it will be too late.

This means it's likely that the only way to get new refineries built would be for the US government to partially backstop the investment.  It's not the worst way to spend taxpayer money; everyone likes lower gas prices.  Getting such a measure passed through congress is questionable, though. 

One possible avenue would be profit sharing with taxpayers on excess fuel sold, or on exports sold from new refineries.  This is similar to the Saudi Arabia model, which invests some oil profits back into healthcare, education, housing loans, and cheaper fuel and utilities for citizens.  Of course, Saudi Arabia is a monarchy and moving from theory to practice in the US is another matter.  

Then there's the permits, environmental studies and regulations, and a lot of other red tape that can extend build time up to 10 years.  Even with a streamlined bureaucracy, it can still take 3-5 years.  With government aid, the time can be reduced to 1-3 years.  It's clear that this is not a quick fix in any scenario, but if the process had been started a few years ago, then there would be no capacity issue and there would be no need for this discussion.

Again, the US economy is almost designed to avoid redundancy and preparedness.  

There is the possibility that a rush to build refineries is unnecessary in the short term.  With ship traffic in the Hormuz returning to normal, prices on oil will continue to drop.  This does not mean, though, that gasoline prices will fall in tandem, at least not for months to come.  The war in Ukraine also looks like it will be ongoing for some time, which means Russian supplies will not be returning to global markets.  

Refineries are a long term solution which requires long term planning; something which is nearly impossible within the US where the political landscape changes every 2-4 years.  It is also extremely difficult when half the government under Democrats wants to tear down oil infrastructure and force the country to accept inefficient green tech.  The point is, there are obvious fixes available, but nothing will happen until disaster strikes and politicians are effectively frightened.  

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/04/2026 - 13:30

One of the victims was airlifted to the hospital.

Disneyland Paris was forced to slam its gates shut to last-minute visitors after both theme parks completely sold out as American travelers are finding it’s cheaper than an Orlando or Anaheim Disney trip. Last-minute parkgoers looking for same-day passes were turned away on Saturday, Oct. 3, as massive crowds packed into Disneyland Park and the...

Domingue argued that El-Sayed’s behavior is “best explained by the guy who never grew past the high school locker room.”

The move by OPEC+ was in line with expectations that further output policy adjustments are unlikely until next year.

US, Australia Halt Consular Services In Brazil Before Presidential Election, Citing Security Concerns

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The United States and Australia on Oct. 2 suspended consular services in Brazil, citing security concerns ahead of the country's high-stakes presidential elections.

Security personnel stand outside the U.S. embassy after consular services were suspended due to security concerns in Brasilia, Brazil, on Oct. 2, 2026. Eraldo Peres/AP Photo

The U.S. embassy in Brazil issued an alert advising U.S. citizens seeking emergency assistance to contact the appropriate duty officer instead of visiting the embassy or other diplomatic facilities.

The Australian embassy also announced its closure in a notice, advising citizens seeking urgent consular assistance to contact the consular emergency center in Canberra by phone. It also urged people not to visit U.S. diplomatic facilities in Brazil, citing the U.S. embassy's security alert.

No details were provided about the security concerns that prompted the closures. The State Department said it coordinated with Brazilian officials to address security concerns.

Brazil's federal police said on Oct. 2 that they conducted a preventive operation in Sao Paulo and the Federal District targeting activity that could threaten U.S. diplomatic facilities, but have not yet identified any suspects linked to criminal organizations.

Police said the investigation stemmed from cooperation with foreign intelligence agencies and is still ongoing following the seizure of communication equipment.

Brazil will hold the first round of its presidential election on Oct. 4, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro among the frontrunners. If neither wins more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff vote will take place on Oct. 25.

Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of plotting a coup following his 2022 election loss.

Last year, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian imports, citing the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro. The U.S. government also sanctioned Brazilian Supreme Federal Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and revoked his visa, along with those of his judicial allies and their family members, over what it called "censorship of protected expression in the United States" and a "witch hunt" targeting Jair Bolsonaro.

Lula has condemned the U.S. moves as interference in the Brazilian justice system.

The U.S. State Department on Aug. 31 placed Brazil under a "Level 2-Exercise increased caution" classification, while some areas of the country are designated as "Level 4-Do not travel," the most severe of the four advisory levels.

The advisory warns that violent crimes are common in urban regions of Brazil, including murder, armed robbery, and carjacking.

"Assaults are common, including with sedatives or drugs placed in drinks, especially in Rio de Janeiro," it stated. "Criminals target foreigners through dating apps or at bars before drugging and robbing their victims."

Naveen Athrappully and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/04/2026 - 13:00

The Canadian singer died on Oct. 2, her family announced in a statement on Instagram Saturday.

The Canadian singer died on Oct. 2, her family announced in a statement on Instagram Saturday.

The Kardashian star shares North, 13, Saint, 10, Chicago, 8, and Psalm, 7, with West.

The Kardashian star shares North, 13, Saint, 10, Chicago, 8, and Psalm, 7, with West.

The embattled mayor of Mount Vernon whose handpicked deputy police commissioner was recently charged with attempted murder also broke federal election law, according to the US Office of Special Counsel. Democratic Mayor Shawyn Patterson-Howard violated the Hatch Act when she sent campaign mailers stamped as an “important message” from the city in her push to boost...

USC wins a game and loses a few spots in Big Ten football power rankings.

The recipient of the practical joke is issuing an important warning to other men about an oft-overlooked, yet deadly disease.

"First Time In History": Bessent Says Iran Faces Zero Oil Revenue As Tanker Loadings Collapse

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joined Mike Allen for a new episode of "The Axios Show," published Saturday morning.

Bessent spoke about the Iran war's effect on the cost of living for US consumers and his "I am the house" comment early last month, which warned anyone betting against the Treasury's defense of the long end of the market.

Beyond the broader global bond rout, his comments on the Strait of Hormuz added color to President Trump's economic stranglehold on Tehran.

"They are isolating them economically like this never happened before. You know, right now, the score: barrels out of the Strait: U.S. about 1.1 billion, Iran zero," Bessent told Allen.

Bessent continued, "For the first time in history, they, since they started pumping oil, they will have no oil on the water this week. They will have no revenue."

Bessent on Iran:

For the first time in history, since they started pumping oil, they will have no oil on the water this week.

They will have no revenues. pic.twitter.com/PIrHwUCG4q

— Clash Report (@clashreport) October 3, 2026

Separately, last week, Goldman analysts Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, Alexandra Paulus, and Daan Struyven told clients that a "divergence between the fall of Iranian exports and the rise of exports of other Persian Gulf producers" was underway.

The Goldman energy experts estimated that "dark exports" have helped boost Persian Gulf oil exports to 23.3 million barrels a day over the past week, back to prewar levels.

Also last week, Bloomberg News reported that Iran's crude loadings crashed to zero in August from around 250,000 barrels per day.

Data providers Kpler and Vortexa also recorded zero crude loadings last month.

The collapse in Iranian crude loadings suggests the US naval blockade is constraining Tehran's export options, while recovering flows from other Gulf producers point to eroded Iranian leverage over the strait. If sustained, Tehran's oil revenues would plunge, pressuring the regime to make a deal. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/04/2026 - 12:30

H+M and joint-venture partner Affinius Capital are exploring a sale of 1601 Bronxdale Ave., a 7.4-acre site close to the planned new Parkchester/Van Nest Metro-North station.

The various spots offer everything from $1 french toast sticks to $2 coffee.

The most interesting NFL game of the week goes down in Las Vegas.