Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange are climbing into the end of the week, reaching $3,621 a ton and approaching the peak seen during Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The problem now is that the aluminum market has been thrust into a serious supply shock amid the U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East, one that is unlikely to be reversed in the near term.
One big problem we highlighted last weekend was that Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), the Gulf's largest aluminum producer, declared force majeure on part of its contract book after Iranian missile and drone strikes hit its Al Taweelah smelter. Then there is the Hormuz chokepoint and the U.S. blockade of the critical waterway, which has only further throttled vessel traffic.
It is important to note that EGA accounts for 4% of the world's aluminum production. The broader Middle East accounts for about 9% of global aluminum production.
JPMorgan analysts have warned that the industry is descending into a black hole, or a "metaphorical point of no return," where the "global aluminum market will face a serious and prolonged supply outage," even if vessel flows through the Hormuz chokepoint resume in the near term.
The analysts warned clients earlier this week that the market has now entered that dangerous void, and LME prices could soon reach $4,000 a ton as the largest supply deficit in more than 25 years quickly emerges.
Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch recently warned clients, "Hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday, that should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide."
Countries exposed to Gulf aluminum shipments include the U.S., Japan, Turkey, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece, and India. Any supply shock could hit Western manufacturers, allowing alternative suppliers in China and Russia to step up.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 06:55Foreign property owners will see their access to Swiss housing significantly reduced, as the Federal Council has decided to require authorization for their purchases. With foreigners accounting for more and more real estate transactions in the Western world, Switzerland’s tough measures may be a template for other nations.
The new measure aims to combat the housing shortage, especially as the population is set to vote in two months on the Swiss People’s Party’s (SVP) initiative “No 10 Million Swiss Francs,” reports Blick, based on a statement from the ATS Swiss Telegraphic Agency.
The Federal Council intends to require authorization for the purchase of primary residences by nationals of countries outside the European Union and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), it stated in a press release. If these owners relocate, they will have to resell their property within two years.
Foreign owners will also no longer be able to acquire commercial properties for the purpose of renting them out. The aim is to prevent purchases made solely for investment purposes. The purchase of shares in publicly traded residential real estate companies and units in real estate funds will also no longer be systematically permitted.
The government also plans to tighten regulations on holiday homes. The annual quotas that cantons have to authorize purchases by foreign owners will be reduced. Sales between foreign nationals will again require authorization. Any acquisition of holiday homes by non-Swiss buyers will reduce the cantonal quota by one unit.
“These proposals aim to refocus the Koller Law on its primary objective,” the Federal Council writes.
The draft bill is open for consultation until July 15.
This series of measures was decided in response to the Swiss People’s Party (SVP/UDC) initiative “No Switzerland with 10 million inhabitants.” The agrarian party wants to curb population growth by capping the resident population at 10 million.
The Swiss People’s Party (UDC) behind the proposal stated that rising immigration had resulted in “housing shortages and rising rents, traffic jams on the roads, crowded trains and buses, falling standards of schools, increasing violence and crime, electricity shortages, income stagnating per capita, ever-higher health insurance premiums, indebted social services, and increased pressure on the beauty of the landscape and the preservation of nature.”
If the new limit is exceeded, measures regarding asylum will have to be taken. And the free movement of persons agreement concluded with the EU could be terminated.
The Federal Council is clearly opposed to this text, which would jeopardize the agreements with Brussels reached at the end of 2024 after years of negotiations. The package still needs to be approved by the Swiss and European Parliaments. The Swiss people will then have their say.
With the amendment to the Lex Koller, “the Federal Council is closing a loophole in the stock market exploited by foreign investors,” the Socialist Party emphasized in a statement on Wednesday. According to the parliamentary group, this decision “sends a strong signal.”
Filling this gap “is a long-awaited step forward for tenants and those wishing to acquire home ownership,” said the co-president of the Socialist Group, National Councillor Samuel Bendahan (VD), quoted in the press release. According to him, “foreign investors could easily enter the Swiss housing market via the stock exchange, circumventing the Lex Koller, without authorization or oversight.”
“It was high time to reverse the relaxations of the Lex Koller that have driven up prices, and thus rents, over the past few decades,” adds National Councillor Christian Dandrès (GE).
Across Europe, housing affordability has become a major issue. On one end, mass immigration has fueled tight housing markets, driving up housing prices and rent. At the same time, foreign investors are increasingly buying up more and more property, pricing out natives. In cities like Paris, foreigners own nearly 4 percent of residential housing stock. In other countries like Germany, foreigners buying up property is also an issue, but it is difficult to ascertain how much of the housing stock is owned by foreigners, as they often buy the property through a company registered in Germany and through numerous layers of shell companies.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 06:30Northrop Grumman released new images of its B-21 Raider stealth bomber performing "more advanced stages of flight test" and "aerial refueling."
Northrop Grumman’s B-21 Raider continues to demonstrate outstanding performance as the program moves into more advanced phases flight test, including aerial refueling. (Photo Credit: U.S. Air Force)The B-21 is the world's first sixth-generation aircraft and the "most advanced aircraft to take to the sky now has global reach," according to Northrop.
The B-21 Raider conducts aerial refueling with a KC-135 Stratotanker, which is a key part to the Raider’s role in projecting power globally. (Photo Credit: Northrop Grumman)The test campaign of the B-21 comes as Eurasia is on fire in multiple conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Iran conflict in the Gulf area.
Northrop did not say when the B-21 conducted the test flight but our reporting from mid-March had a timeframe then and over the Mojave Desert.
Northrop listed ten fun facts about the B-21:
1. Sixth-Generation Stealth
The B-21 Raider leverages decades of innovation to deliver superior stealth with extended range. Its advanced, fuel-efficient engines integrated into a sleeker airframe reduce tanker support reliance more than any previous bomber, enhancing agility and persistence across missions.
The B-21 has demonstrated outstanding stealth performance in testing, showcasing the effectiveness of its advanced low-observable design that will allow it to penetrate the most sophisticated air defenses undetected.
Modernized, low-observable processes will also make the B-21 easier and less costly to maintain than prior systems, ensuring the fleet's operational readiness for our nation's most critical missions.
2. Built to Deliver Strategic Deterrence
The B-21 Raider is designed to hold any target at risk, anywhere in the world. With the ability to deliver both conventional and nuclear payloads, it provides decision-makers with flexible, survivable response options across the full spectrum of conflict. The B-21's open architecture will deliver seamless upgrades, enabling the Raider fleet to evolve its mission and weapons capabilities to outpace any threat.
3. Mission-Driven Partnership
The development of the B-21 Raider is a testament to the results-focused collaboration between Northrop Grumman and the Air Force. Northrop Grumman's partnership is built on transparency and a commitment to shared success, exemplified by an industry-first agreement that provides access to valuable data, including the B-21 digital twin, enhancing affordability and agility in upgrades.
As a proven partner, Northrop Grumman delivers effective, data-driven solutions that meet the demands of critical missions. Together, the company and the Air Force are demonstrating the B-21's capabilities against adversaries.
4. Strategically Investing
Committed to leading the way, Northrop Grumman consistently invests in the technologies and tools that empower the best fighting force in the world. To date, the company has invested more than $5 billion in the B-21 program's digital and manufacturing infrastructure. Our investments in manufacturing capacity are accelerating production, providing flexibility to support future fleet growth and ensuring long-term U.S. Air Force strike dominance.
These investments power our digital ecosystem, equipping the B-21 Raider with highly advanced software, manufacturing and engineering tools. As a result, software certification time has already been reduced by 50%, ensuring the B-21 stays at the speed of relevance for future technology insertion. The ecosystem also enables real-time validation of aircraft performance during tests.
5. Delivering Results that Ensure America Wins
Northrop Grumman's expertise in advanced aircraft systems is driving flight test results that showcase speed, efficiency and exceptional performance.
Multiple B-21 Raider aircraft are currently in flight test, consistently exceeding expectations. Most sorties achieve "code one" status, indicating the aircraft returned from its flight without maintenance issues and is ready to go fly again. This reaffirms the quality of the design and build, and signals strong future operational performance.
Simultaneously, Northrop Grumman engineers are conducting ground tests to ensure the B-21 can operate in the most extreme mission conditions. These test results consistently surpass digital modeling predictions, further validating the aircraft's design and capabilities.
6. Accelerating Advanced Manufacturing
Northrop Grumman's advanced manufacturing processes, including digital and augmented reality tools, enable technicians to visualize tasks and solve problems before ever touching the plane. This approach connects technicians to design engineers as never before, improving efficiency and cultivating expertise throughout the manufacturing workforce.
Northrop Grumman has invested in manufacturing technology and capacity at our facilities across the U.S. to accelerate and scale production of the B-21 Raider. We are increasing production rates on capability that will project American power anywhere in the world.
7. More than a Bomber
As the world's most advanced aircraft to take the skies, the B-21 Raider combines unmatched range, access and payload in a single system designed to perform specialized missions no other aircraft can accomplish.
Instrumental in maintaining U.S. and allied security amid a complex global landscape, the B-21 is a key part of a powerful family of systems. It delivers a new era of capability and flexibility by seamlessly integrating data, sensors and weapons – enabling precision strikes and comprehensive situational awareness.
8. Ready on Day One
Northrop Grumman is developing comprehensive training, sustainment and fleet management tools for the Air Force as they prepare to operate and maintain the B-21 Raider. Leveraging extensive flight test data and decades of sustainment experience across a variety of systems, these tools ensure the B-21 enters service ready, affordable and sustainable at scale.
Test pilots report exceptional handling during aerial refueling, noting a high degree of stability and control. These qualities reduce training requirements and enable faster refueling, increasing operational tempo and agility – further proving that the B-21 will deliver unmatched performance for U.S. Air Force operators.
9. American Made Deterrence
An all-American team of more than 8,000 industry and Air Force personnel are designing, building, testing and delivering on the promise of B-21. The team consists of more than 400 suppliers across 40 states. This is a nationwide effort to provide deterrence capability that strengthens and defends our nation.
10. Bold, Innovative, Courageous
The B-21 Raider is named in honor of the Doolittle Raid of World War II when 80 airmen, led by Lt. Col. James "Jimmy" Doolittle, and 16 B-25 Mitchell medium bombers set off on a mission that changed the course of World War II. The raid was a catalyst for a multitude of future progress in U.S. air superiority and serves as the inspiration behind the Raider name and the pioneering, innovative spirit instilled across the workforce bringing the B-21 to life.
Separate but related to the defense world, The Wall Street Journal reports that the Trump administration is preparing to fire up the "war economy" by asking automakers to convert car production lines into weapons manufacturing. It's a must-read report that can be found here.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 05:45Authored by Alex Komani via OilPrice.com,
Norway's crude oil export earnings surged 67.9% year-on-year in March to a record 57.4 billion kroner ($6.1 billion), primarily driven by soaring global energy prices following the outbreak of the Iran war and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices averaged 1,014 kroner ($107.52) per barrel in March, the highest monthly average since September 2023.
As Europe’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, the Scandinavian country exported 56.6 million barrels of crude oil in March, good for nearly 2 million barrels per day. Norway’s natural gas export revenues also climbed 19% to over 69 billion kroner as Europe sought alternative energy sources amid Middle East instability, helping the country record a trade surplus to the tune of 97.5 billion kroner, its highest level since January 2023.
Norway’s windfall oil earnings did not escape the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump:
“Europe is desperate for energy, and yet the United Kingdom refuses to open North Sea oil, one of the greatest fields in the world. Tragic!!!” he wrote in Truth Social.
“Aberdeen should be booming. Norway sells its North Sea oil to the UK at double the price. They are making a fortune,” he added.
North Sea oil and gas production is in long-term, structural decline, with over 90% of its producible resources already extracted.
However, Norway has been able to maintain high production by expanding exploration in the Arctic Barents Sea, pivoting to new, smaller discoveries in the North Sea, and investing heavily in the Norwegian Sea.
The Barents Sea is widely regarded as one of the most promising, yet under-explored, oil and gas frontiers on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, with roughly 80% of its remaining hydrocarbon resources yet to be tapped.
Meanwhile, the Norwegian Sea is an increasingly attractive area of interest, with roughly 50% of its remaining oil and gas resources yet to be discovered.
About one-third of the estimated resources in the Norwegian Sea are located in unopened areas, including off Lofoten and Vesterålen as well as around Jan Mayen.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 05:00Trump says "probably, maybe" Iran talks resume this weekend, "not sure" about ceasefire extension. Iranian report (unconfirmed) says Bab al-Mandab could be forced close tomorrow.
Trump unveils 10-day Lebanon ceasefire, but which Hezbollah has not signed on for, amid heavy IDF attacks on south. BBG reports on potential 6-month timeframe for comprehensive Iran deal, oil spikes.
Iran seeks to boost rial through toll payment scheme; vessels pay Hormuz passage through Iranian banks.
US Navy: vessels seeking entry into Hormuz Strait now fair game for boarding, search, and outright seizure - including for suspicion of 'contraband'.
Hegseth: US forces are ready to restart combat if Iran doesn’t agree to a deal & strait blockade to continue for as long as it takes. Already 14 ships have been turned around.
* * *
Trump Still Signals Ambiguity on Peace/Ceasefire PotentialPresident Trump appeared to confirm ceasefire talks with Iran are still very up in the air, saying that he also doesn't see the need to extend the current two-week ceasefire - "not sure," he said - also amid the going US naval blockade of Iranian-China oil exports, or other sanctioned vessels. With no extension, the ceasefire will expire on April 22.
"If there's no deal fighting resumes," Trump affirmed in fielding reporters' questions. Importantly, talks and timeline are still a big maybe:
President Trump told reporters the next in-person talks negotiating a deal for Iran will "probably, maybe" happen this weekend. He didn't say where, and other U.S. officials haven't confirmed any details.
He took the opportunity in the same remarks to slam the Pope. "If the pope looked at the 42,000 people that were killed over the last two or three months, as a protester, with no weapons, no nothing," he claimed, using the same unsourced numbers he's lately been throwing around. "I mean, you take a look at that, so I can disagree with the pope. I have a right to disagree. I have a right to disagree with the pope."
Unverified alarming reports of next targeted waterway:
Iran's Axios: Bab al Mandab might close soon... https://t.co/2lLUEUQ0Bz
— berggeit (@_berggeit_) April 16, 2026The president added, "The pope can say what he wants. And I want him to say what he wants. But I can disagree. I think that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. If they do, the whole world would be in jeopardy, the Middle East would blow up and the whole world would be in jeopardy."
"This is the real world, it's a nasty world," he said. "But as far as the pope and saying what he wants, he can do that."
Also, Iran agrees to hand over its enriched uranium(?)... there's nothing from Iran saying this:
"They've agreed to give us back the nuclear dust," Trump told reporters at the White House, using his name for the enriched uranium stockpile that the United States says could be used to build nuclear weapons. "There's a very good chance we're going to make a deal."
And on the newly declared Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, which does not include Hezbollah, Trump told reporters: "I responded to this call and agreed to a timeout, or rather a temporary ceasefire, of 10 days to try to advance the agreement that we began discussing with the ambassadors' meeting in Washington." He added: "For these peace talks, we have two fundamental demands: one, the disarmament of Hezbollah. Two, a sustainable peace agreement, peace from strength."
⚡️An hour before the ceasefire, Hezbollah rockets impact Nahariya pic.twitter.com/s83rPjOUfp
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 16, 2026 Gulf, European officials See Needing 6 Months for Iran deal: BBG, Oil SpikesA big headline out of Bloomberg has sent oil prices higher:
Some Gulf Arab and European leaders believe that a US-Iran peace deal will take about six months to be agreed and that the warring sides should extend their ceasefire to cover that timeframe, according to officials from the regions familiar with the matter.
The leaders want the vital Strait of Hormuz opened immediately to restore energy flows and are warning in private that a global food crisis may develop if that doesn’t happen by next month, said the officials, who asked not to be identified discussing private talks.
But important caveats remain: who are these "some" Gulf and "European leaders" - the latter who have remained far to the sidelines during this crisis, but who are yes still suffering the effects of the ultra-risky Operation Epic Fury Iran war gambit by Trump. Spike in crude...
Trump: Truce in LebanonPresident Trump has announced an apparent Lebanon breakthrough, announcing on Truth Social that Lebanon and Israel have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. This just after on Thursday Israel launched at least 50 airstrikes in a matter of two hours on South Lebanon, according to national media. Israel says late Thursday its forces have no plans to withdraw ground troops from Southern Lebanon. Operations there look to continue, but presumably the ceasefire means Beirut might not be hit in the interim.
This week, Rubio oversaw historic peace talks between Lebanese officials and the Israeli government; however, which did not include Hezbollah. Both Tehran and Hezbollah have insisted that the Lebanon conflict should be resolved through the Pakistan mediated US-Iran process. The Lebanese government has little actual sway over Hezbollah, the country's single most well-armed and influential paramilitary organization, which has more missiles and arms than even the national army. This means it remains a big unknown whether this 10-day truce will hold. Trump's Truth Social message, which claims he solved "9 wars across the world" and a "lasting peace":
Defiant Iran Reasserts Toll System: Paid Through Iranian BanksAn Iranian parliament official has been cited in newswires as saying the country's planned Strait of Hormuz toll for ships seeking to pass is to be paid through Iranian banks. Previously it was said to be through cryptocurrency, and could be as a high as $2 million Oil rose higher, given this is another indicator this game of chicken in the narrow waterway could soon lead to fresh hostilities, despite the 2-week ceasefire still being in place, soon to expire.
As for negotiations, there's optimism another round of US-Iran talks will occur, with both sides having agreed in principle, but Iran's government informed Pakistan that the US must back off its maximal demands.
Reuters: U.S. and Iranian negotiators have scaled back ambitions for a comprehensive peace deal and are instead seeking a temporary memorandum to prevent a return to conflict, two Iranian sources told Reuters.
Below is a machine translation from the Persian of the fresh parliament statement via state-linked ISNA:
Ships seeking to enter the Hormuz Strait already sanctioned by the US just got a lot more vulnerable: under Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports, they're now fair game for boarding, search, and outright seizure, per US Naval Forces Central Command.
"In addition to enforcing the blockade, all Iranian vessels, vessels with active OFAC sanctions, and vessels suspected of carrying contraband, are subject to belligerent right to visit and search," the notice said, referring to the Office of Foreign Assets Control. "These vessels, regardless of location, are subject to visit, board, search, and seizure."
The definition of "contraband" is broad and expansive. It spans weapons, ammunition, combat aircraft, and military electronics, WSJ has described. "Petroleum products and lubricants are conditional contraband due to their essential role in military operations and their contribution to Iran’s war-sustaining economy," the advisory also said. "Contraband is defined as goods that are destined for an enemy and that may be susceptible to use in armed conflict."
US Marine Corps imageUp until now, the blockade - initially rolled out Monday - was limited to ships moving in and out of Iranian ports, but the definition who can be targeted just widened. Meanwhile, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said Wednesday that in the first 48 hours, not a single ship made it past the blockade.
Hormuz Blockade: 'As Long As It Takes'The US will maintain a naval blockade of Iran for as long as it takes, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth has stated in a press briefing Thursday. He and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine say that US forces are ready to resume major combat operations at a moment's notice, which suggests the initial two-week ceasefire could get extended, as was widely reported the day prior. But this also suggests that Washington likely has no appetite for resuming major aerial operations directly against Iran anytime soon.
General Caine:
At each point, the United States Navy will transmit a warning—a young sailor, normally on the bridge of one of those destroyers. A junior officer picks up that mic and transmits, and I quote:
"Do not attempt to breach the blockade.
Vessels will be boarded for… pic.twitter.com/VT6LvPBUnT
On the question of resumption of major combat operations, Hegseth warned: "To Iran, choose wisely. I pray you choose a deal which is within your grasp for the betterment of your people and the betterment of the world." He followed with, "In the meantime, the War Department is locked and loaded." Additional main highlights to the Hegseth/Caine update and presser:
But again, the chief takeaway is that the Pentagon and Trump administration are making clear that US forces are ready to restart combat if Iran doesn't agree to a deal. On that front, US officials say future talks are likely to be held again in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad. Prior reports have indicated both sides have "agreed in principle" to engage in another round of talks.
Iran's PressTV touting ability to inflict global economic pain...
International Monetary Fund’s chief economist says that growth is expected to slow this year amid repercussions from the war against Iran and disruptions to global oil and gas trade.
Follow Press TV on Telegram: https://t.co/LWoNSpkc2J pic.twitter.com/ZAty9htTov
Since the blockade went live, US forces have already turned around 13 ships, according to Gen. Caine in the same briefing. He underscored how far this reach extends, saying operations will take place "inside Iran's territorial seas and in international waters."
Officially, the Pentagon claims the blockade is limited - targeting Iran’s ports and coastal areas while sparing vessels simply passing through the Strait of Hormuz. In practice, however, the net is touted as much wider, as US forces "will actively pursue any Iranian-flagged vessel or any vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran," including so-called "dark fleet vessels carrying Iranian oil," Caine added.
He confirmed that more than 10,000 service members are now involved in the blockade, but with more US servicemembers en route to the region.
Lebanon Still Bombed Heavily by Israel amid US Ceasefire EffortsIsraeli jets pounded Nabatiyeh in southern Lebanon Thursday, unleashing one of the heaviest barrages there since the war began and sending black smoke billowing over the region. Strikes hit near the industrial zone and a supermarket on Nabih Berri Avenue, with nearby suburbs also taking damage, according to Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency.
Iran has signaled urgency on de-escalation, with parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf calling ceasefire in Lebanon "as important as a ceasefire in Iran." He described, "In the Islamabad negotiations and afterwards, we have been seriously pursuing efforts to compel the adversaries to establish a permanent ceasefire in all areas of conflict." Pakistan's army chief is in Tehran mediating between Washington and Tehran.
⚡#BREAKING Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said in a conversation with US Secretary of State Marco: "I am not willing to talk to Netanyahu"
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 16, 2026Lebanon's leadership is in th emeantime framing any truce as a gateway to talks, despite Hezbollah having rejected direct talks with Israel. The ceasefire it is "demanding with Israel" would be a "natural entry point for direct negotiations," President Aoun said, adding: "Lebanon is keen to halt the escalation… so that the targeting of the innocents ceases, and the destruction of homes" stops.
Destruction of Al-Qasimia Bridge in Southern Lebanon
جسر القاسمية pic.twitter.com/u39LVosxnF
— Lebanon 24 (@Lebanon24) April 16, 2026He stressed negotiations "are to be undertaken by the Lebanese authorities alone," and said "the withdrawal of Israeli forces… is an essential step," alongside redeploying the army "up to the international borders" to "end any manifestation of armed presence."
And yet Israeli strikes are now hitting infrastructure. A key bridge over the Litani River near Qasmiyeh - linking Tyre and Sidon - was reportedly destroyed, though Israel said it only "struck adjacent to it." The broader campaign is cutting off southern Lebanon, targeting chiefly Hezbollah positions, Israeli officials have claimed.
Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 05:00