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"It Could Be Tomorrow": California's Top Earthquake Expert Sounds Alarm On "The Big One"
A new peer-reviewed study found that the fault system running beneath Los Angeles and the Inland Empire is carrying more stress today than at any point in the last millennium, and that a single rupture could tear across both the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults at once.
The research, led by Dr. Liliane Burkhard of the University of Bern and published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, simulated 1,000 years of earthquake cycles on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto systems.
The flashpoint is Cajon Pass, the junction northeast of Los Angeles where the two systems meet, and where Interstate 15, freight rail lines, power corridors and the aqueducts that supply Southern California's water all cross.
The model puts Coulomb stress at 3.6 megapascals on the San Jacinto-Bernardino segment, the highest value anywhere in the entire 1,000-year reconstruction, and 2.8 megapascals on the San Andreas Mojave South segment. Both are elevated, and both are closely aligned, the same configuration that preceded joint ruptures in the past.
Researchers caution these are modeled values that depend on the simulation's assumptions, not direct measurements from underground. Burkhard's team describes Cajon Pass as an "earthquake gate," a junction that can either stop a rupture cold or let it through.
The 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, magnitude roughly 7.9, stopped there, while the 1812 Wrightwood event is believed to have crossed both faults. A through-going rupture today, the study claimed, could reach magnitude 7.4 to 7.8. More than 160 years of slip has piled up since 1857. Caltech seismologist Lucy Jones, who helped build the widely cited magnitude-7.8 "ShakeOut" scenario, said the San Andreas is California's longest fault and therefore capable of its largest earthquakes.
The chilling scenario projects nearly two minutes of shaking, more than 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries and over $200 billion in damage. "It could go another 100 years. It could be tomorrow," Jones said in an interview with ABC7.
A 2008 USGS forecast put the 30-year odds of a magnitude-6.7 or larger quake on the southern San Andreas at 59 percent, the highest of any fault in the state. Burkhard stopped short of forecasting a date, telling Newsweek that while this does not mean an earthquake will happen tomorrow, "the system is as loaded as it has ever been in our record, and the question is not really if but when."
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New York Cannot Ban Federal Agents From Wearing Masks, Judge Rules
Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times,
A judge ruled on Aug. 3 that New York cannot ban federal agents from wearing masks or balaclavas, or require them to wear visible identification.
Masked federal agents wait outside an immigration courtroom in New York on July 8, 2025. Olga Fedorova/APU.S. District Judge Mae D'Agostino, for the Northern District of New York, wrote that New York state's perspective "is grounded in unavoidable observations of recent troubling events which loom darkly over the public perception of the manner in which federal immigration law is enforced."
"New York appears to be well-intentioned in its pursuit of transparent policing," she said in her ruling.
"However, the issue now before the Court is about constitutionality - not transparency or preferable policy decisions. There is a constitutional proscription on direct state regulation of federal agency operations."
She said that whether federal law enforcement agencies have chosen to carry out their operations in a "sufficiently transparent manner" was an important question, but it was not for the court to decide at this time.
Federal Agents Fear DoxxingFederal agents have been wearing masks to protect their identities because they and their families fear being doxxed by activists.
The federal government argued that New York's law goes against the supremacy clause of the U.S. Constitution, which bars state governments from regulating federal law enforcement.
The Trump administration argued the New York state law violated "principles of intergovernmental immunity and are invalid under the Supremacy Clause because they unlawfully regulate or discriminate against the Federal Government ... or are preempted by federal law."
New York's law to ban face coverings and implement identification measures was included among several law enforcement policies in the state budget bill that was signed into law by Gov. Kathy Hochul, a D in May and came into effect in June, according to D'Agostino's ruling.
The definition of face coverings includes any "opaque mask, garment, helmet, headgear, balaclava, ski mask, neck gaiter, or tactical mask," but excludes transparent face shields, medical masks, or respirators.
On Feb. 9, 2026, a federal district court judge partially blocked a similar law in California, finding that it discriminated against federal officers.
Judge Christina Snyder of the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California ruled in favor of the Trump administration, prohibiting the state from enforcing its No Secret Police Act - which was scheduled to go into effect earlier this year - against federal law enforcement officers.
The federal government sued California, challenging both laws: the aforementioned law and the No Vigilantes Act, which requires federal officers to wear identification. Snyder ruled that the second law was not discriminatory.
Several other blue states had followed California and New York's example.
In May, the U.S. Department of Justice sued Connecticut in federal court over a new state law that prohibited federal agents from wearing masks and also established protected areas - including schools, hospitals, and houses of worship - where people cannot be detained for immigration violations.
New York Reviewing Legal OptionsHochul and New York Attorney General Letitia James issued a joint statement after D'Agostino's ruling.
"While the court enjoined enforcement of New York's mask ban, we stand firm in our belief that masked agents do not make New York safer, and our offices are reviewing all legal options at this time," Hochul and James said.
D'Agostino also denied the federal government's motion for a preliminary injunction blocking New York's ban on 287(g) agreements between U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and local law enforcement, which would have allowed ICE to delegate certain immigration enforcement functions to local officers.
Hochul and James welcomed that ruling.
"As we have said from the start, New York's ban on 287(g) agreements is legal and will keep our communities safe," they said in their joint statement.
"Local law enforcement should be focused on local matters, and New York taxpayers should not have to foot the bill for any collaboration with ICE."
Hochul's Local Cops, Local Crimes Act, which was proposed in January, prohibits federal agents from using local detention centers for civil immigration enforcement, including what the governor described as "mass raids" and detainee transport.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/04/2026 - 19:15