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UAE sneaked 4 oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz — right under Iran’s nose
UAE Slips Hidden Oil Tankers Through Straits Of Hormuz
While conventional wisdom, especially after Trump's counter-blockade of Iran's blockade, that the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, the reality is that the UAE is now running loaded crude tankers through the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz with transponders switched off - just like sanctioned Iranian ghost fleets in the pre-war period - just to pry loose a fraction of the oil bottled up in the Gulf.
According to shipping data reported by Reuters, industry sources, and satellite tracking, Emirati state-owned energy giant ADNOC and willing Asian buyers have moved at least 6 million barrels of Upper Zakum and Das crude out of the Gulf in April alone via four tankers. While that’s a drop in the bucket compared to pre-war exports, it proves participants are willing to roll the dice with Iranian drones and speedboats to unlock trapped supply.
At the same time, other Gulf heavyweights Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar have largely thrown in the towel. Saudi Arabia is rerouting via the Red Sea where possible. Only the UAE is playing an occasional round of Russian roulette through the world’s most critical oil chokepoint.
Dark Fleet Playbook Comes to Abu Dhabi
Emirati tankers are sailing with AIS trackers deliberately shut off, the same tactic Tehran has used for years to evade U.S. sanctions. One VLCC, the Hafeet (managed by ADNOC’s own logistics arm), loaded 2 million barrels of Upper Zakum on April 7, slipped through the strait by April 15, then did a ship-to-ship transfer to the Olympic Luck outside, which delivered it to Malaysia’s Pengerang refinery (a Petronas-Aramco JV).
Another, the Aliakmon I, carried 2 million barrels of Das crude out on April 27 and dumped it into Oman’s Ras Markaz storage. Two Suezmax tankers headed straight to South Korean refiners.
One Upper Zakum parcel fetched a record $20 premium over official selling prices which explains why UAE sellers are willing to risk it all just to get it to a desperate buyer.
ADNOC has already slashed exports by over 1 million bpd since the Iran war kicked off February 28, down sharply from 3.1 million bpd last year. Most of its remaining volumes move via the safer Fujairah pipeline route, but the Gulf-side crude is now trapped.
Meanwhile, between the combined Iranian and US blockades on Iranian barrels, roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supply has been disrupted. Brent and WTI have responded accordingly, trading well north of $100.
Still, the dangers aren’t theoretical. On Monday, the UAE accused Iran of drone-attacking the empty ADNOC tanker Barakah in the strait. Yet the loaded runs continue.
ADNOC is already notifying customers it plans to keep loading Das and Upper Zakum from inside the Gulf in May, with ship-to-ship transfers outside at Fujairah or Oman’s Sohar. Talks with Asian refiners are ongoing.
Not that this needs to be repeated, as we have been doing every day for the past 2+ months, but this episode again exposes the fragility of global physical energy flows. A fifth of supply can be choked off by regional war, yet the system is so tight that buyers in Southeast Asia and Korea are still lining up for whatever dribbles through, even if there is a clear risk it could end up as a flaming fireball somewhere in the Persian Gulf. This, as inventories are draining at a record pace among buyers of oil, storage is filling to the brim at the sellers, prices are bid and the risk premium is only getting fatter.
Meanwhile, the rest of the Gulf sits on barrels it can’t (or won’t) move without bribes to Tehran, massive discounts or outright halts. Worse, this isn’t a temporary disruption: It’s the new normal until someone blinks or the conflict dramatically escalates to de-escalate. With Hormuz still largely blocked, every barrel that makes it out is a reminder of just how thin the ice under the global oil complex really is.
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DOJ, CTFC Investigating $2.6 Billion In Suspicious Iran War Oil Trades
U.S. authorities are investigating more than $2.6 billion in oil futures shorts that landed within minutes of major announcements tied to the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict. The Department of Justice (DOJ) has joined the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in a widening inquiry into potential misuse of material non-public information in one of the most liquid and geopolitically sensitive commodity markets on earth, ABC News reports.
The trades in question involved bets that oil prices would fall shortly before major U.S. or Iranian announcements tied to the Iran war. .
The TradesData sourced from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) - which captures exchange-traded futures flow but strips identities - reveals four distinct clusters of aggressive shorting in WTI and Brent crude futures:
- March 23: >$500 million in shorts executed in a one-minute burst roughly 15 minutes before President Trump announced a five-day delay on planned strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure. Oil prices subsequently plunged ~15%.
- April 7: ~$960 million short position placed hours before the temporary ceasefire announcement (oil dropped sharply on the news).
- April 17: $760 million short bet executed ~20 minutes before Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic.
- April 21: $430 million additional short layer placed 15 minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire.
Total exposure: >$2.65 billion in directional bets that oil's geopolitical risk premium was about to collapse. These were institutional-sized clips that moved the tape.
The CTFC began investigating suspicious oil trades last month, which has now expanded under DOJ scrutiny.
Oil futures (CL on CME/NYMEX and Brent on ICE) price in both physical supply/demand and a geopolitical risk premium. When headlines shift from "imminent strikes" or "Hormuz closure" to "ceasefire" or "shipping lanes open," that premium evaporates in minutes. A well-timed short captures the entire move plus any subsequent contango/backwardation shift.
These are classic event-driven alpha trades - except the "alpha" here appears to have arrived with near-perfect foresight. In futures markets, unlike equities, there is no uptick rule and leverage is extreme (often 10-20x on margin). A few basis points of edge on a $2.6 billion book compounds into a staggering P&L for the desk or fund that executed it.
Regulatory EscalationThe CFTC has primary jurisdiction over commodity futures manipulation and insider trading under the Commodity Exchange Act. Its enforcement division can subpoena "Tag 50" firm identifiers from exchanges and pursue civil penalties, disgorgement, and trading bans. The DOJ's involvement signals potential criminal exposure - wire fraud, securities/commodities fraud, or conspiracy charges - which carries prison time.
Congressional Democrats moved quickly:
- Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse formally requested a CFTC investigation on April 9–10, citing a "recurring pattern" of trades anticipating Trump administration decisions.
- Rep. Sam Liccardo wrote to both the SEC and CFTC on April 17, explicitly referencing possible violations of the STOCK Act (which already prohibits federal officials from trading on non-public info in futures markets).
- Rep. Ritchie Torres later pushed to expand the probe to the April 17 Hormuz trade.
The White House itself issued an internal memo on March 24 warning staff against using confidential information for futures or prediction-market bets - a tacit admission that the temptation was real.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has been unambiguous: "We will find you, and you will face the full force of the law."
Unanswered Questions- Who were the counterparties? LSEG data does not name them. CFTC/DOJ subpoenas to CME and ICE will. Expect hedge funds, prop shops, or family offices with deep political or intelligence ties to surface - or perhaps entities with access to real-time diplomatic cables.
- Was this pure MNPI or sophisticated OSINT + positioning? The minute-level clustering before public posts makes the former more plausible.
- What about prediction markets? Polymarket and similar platforms have faced parallel scrutiny. Bills introduced in late March aim to ban or restrict federal officials and Congress from trading event contracts.
- Precedent and spillover? Energy desks, shipping companies (tankers through Hormuz), and even defense contractors with Iran exposure are now on notice. Any large, well-timed position in CL, Brent, or related equities (XOM, CVX, tanker stocks) will face heightened post-trade analysis.
Of course, traders of size can now assume every major geopolitical headline now carries a compliance overlay. Position sizing on event risk just became more expensive thanks to regulatory tail risk. For funds with political connections or Washington presence: the bar for "plausible deniability" has been raised dramatically.
The CFTC and DOJ have requested and are receiving detailed trading data and order book records from CME and ICE, so the next 30–60 days should be interesting.
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 09:55