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The Billionaire event where you could walk by ex-Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Wyclef Jean, Tom Brady and Shaquille O’Neal
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Goldman Cuts ARM To Sell On Shocking Smartphone Weakness
Arm Holdings ADRs sank nearly 9% in premarket trading, on track for the largest intraday decline in almost a year, after the chip-architecture company reported softer-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter royalty revenue tied to a slowdown in the smartphone industry, while assuring investors that data center demand can offset the slump.
During an earnings call, Wells Fargo analyst Joe Quatrochi asked Arm CEO Rene Haas:
"Clearly, data centers are very strong and accelerating, but then how do you think about consumer electronics, smartphones, et cetera?"
Haas responded:
So in terms of Q4, as we said before the quarter, we had a bit of a tough comp in that. We had a particularly strong ramp of maybe 400 [ph], a year ago, more so than what we expected this year.
As a result, you saw a bit of a slowdown in royalty revenue. As indicated by our guidance, we're expecting that to get back to the kind of 20% range by Q1.
So I would say within -- you know, the assumptions within our expectations are, we will probably continue to see unit growth, I think actually flip to negative for the mobile market in this last quarter. We're going to continue to see very flattish, maybe slightly negative numbers for the overall market.
Haas' comments about the smartphone slowdown are key because Arm's smartphone exposure remains large, and mobile application processors accounted for about 46% of its total royalty revenue in 2025.
Haas has made clear to analysts that the push into data centers and other markets will help offset Arm's high exposure to a softening smartphone market.
Royalties, a closely watched metric for Arm, generated $671 million in fourth-quarter revenue, missing the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $693.3 million.
"We're seeing the acceleration of Arm being a significant player in the data center," Haas said in an interview, quoted by Bloomberg.
As for the rest of fourth-quarter earnings, Arm beat on total revenue, adjusted EPS, operating income, margins, and licensing revenue. Revenue rose 20% year over year to $1.49 billion, slightly ahead of estimates, while adjusted EPS of 60 cents beat the 58-cent estimate. Adjusted operating income also beat at $731 million, with a very strong operating margin of 49.1%.
The strongest part of the report was license and other revenue, which jumped 29% year over year to $819 million, well above estimates of $775.6 million. That suggests strong customer demand for future Arm designs, particularly in AI, data centers, and new chip programs.
But as we noted above, royalty revenue missed expectations ...
Here's a snapshot of the fourth quarter (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Adjusted EPS 60c vs. 55c y/y, estimate 58c
EPS 29c
Total revenue $1.49 billion, +20% y/y, estimate $1.47 billion
-
License and other revenue $819 million, +29% y/y, estimate $775.6 million
-
Royalty revenue $671 million, +11% y/y, estimate $693.3 million
Annualized contract value $1.66 billion, estimate $1.58 billion
Adjusted net income $641 million, estimate $624.3 million
Adjusted gross profit $1.47 billion
- Adjusted gross margin 98.3%, estimate 98.1%
Adjusted operating expenses $734 million, estimate $743.6 million
Adjusted operating income $731 million, estimate $696.4 million
- Adjusted operating margin 49.1%
Adjusted free cash flow $152 million, estimate $374 million
Arm’s first-quarter forecast is broadly in line on revenue, better on earnings, and better on costs (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Sees revenue $1.21 billion to $1.31 billion, estimate $1.25 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
Sees adjusted EPS 36c to 44c, estimate 37c
Sees adjusted operating expenses about $760 million, estimate $803.1 million
In markets, Arm ADRs sank nearly 9%, the largest intraday decline since July 31, 2025, of -13.5%. On the year, shares are up 117%.
Goldman analyst James Schneider told clients following earnings, "We expect the stock to be range-bound following revenue and EPS guidance that was just above the Street, with an increase to demand expectations for the company's CPU business."
"We are Sell rated on ARM given our concerns around the near-term pressures in the royalty business, the lack of clear competitive advantage relative to peers in chip manufacturing, and elevated valuation relative to peers - but could be more constructive if we see greater evidence of an acceleration in royalty growth or more visibility into greater scale in chip manufacturing," Schneider added.
Additional analyst commentary (courtsey of Bloomberg):
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kunjan Sobhani
- "Arm's fiscal 4Q results reflect a mixed near-term setup, with handset and memory-related weakness weighing on royalties, but partly offset by persistent AI strength."
Daiwa analyst Louis Miscioscia
- Arm's royalty revenue missed due to a shortfall in lower-end cell phone demand, which was weaker than expected due to the higher cost of memory.
Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis (outperform, price target $326)
- Lipacis was more bullish, saying that after examining other trillion dollar market cap companies, believe "ARM has the similar necessary ingredients to cross that $1T threshold themselves"
Bloomberg data shows most of Wall Street is bullishing on ARM... Goldman and AlphaValue are the only with "Sell" ratings ...
Professional subscribers can read the full GS Earnings ARM note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 09:20Draymond Green slammed for ‘awful, awkward’ Charles Barkley rant on ‘Inside the NBA’
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Over 80% Of Young Adults Believe Economy Is 'Bad/Terrible' And We're Seeing The Consequences All Over America
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
Decades of economic decline have brought this country to a breaking point. The vast majority of the population is barely scraping by from month to month as prices continue to rise, thousands of stores and restaurants close, foreclosures spike to alarming levels and the middle class continues to shrink. Now the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz threatens to make things a whole lot worse, and a lot of people are justifiably concerned about what this will mean for their futures.
Our young adults are being hit particularly hard. If you purchased a home 20 or 30 years ago, you are insulated from what is really going on out there. Housing costs are more unaffordable than ever, and many young people have completely given up on the dream of homeownership. Meanwhile, the employment market has gotten very tight, and this is especially true for entry-level jobs.
Do you know anyone under the age of 40 that is doing really well in this economy?
Yes, there are some exceptions, but in general our young adults are really struggling.
As a result, homelessness is at record levels and hordes of drug addicts are roaming the streets of our major cities.
If you doubt this, just check out this video that shows what has happened to the once great city of Los Angeles.
It was once a playground for the rich and famous, but now it has been transformed into a rotting, decaying hellhole.
It is undeniable that most of our young adults hate this economy.
In fact, a new survey that was just released found that a whopping 84 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 and 24 believe that economic conditions in the U.S. are either “bad” or “terrible”…
A recent survey by Generation Lab found that more than 8 in 10 young adults rate economic conditions in the U.S. as either bad or terrible.
The survey, conducted April 26-29, found that 55 percent of 546 respondents ages 18-24 said they view the economy as bad, while 29 percent said it was terrible.
The same survey discovered that 81 percent of Americans between the ages of 25 and 29 believe that economic conditions in the U.S. are either “bad” or “terrible”…
As for those in the 25-29 age range, 52 percent of 266 such respondents said the economy was bad. About 3 in 10 respondents said it was terrible, for a combined percentage of 81 percent that view the economy negatively.
This is what a long-term economic collapse looks like.
Many people have had their heads in the sand for years, but meanwhile economic conditions have continued to deteriorate all around us.
A different survey that polled American adults of all ages found that 78 percent of us do not feel financially secure at this stage…
A new Intuit Credit Karma/Harris Poll study found that 78% of Americans don’t feel financially secure, even if they’ve been saving and playing by the rules.
Moreover, nearly 3 in 4 Americans (72%) shared that their current financial standing makes them feel like they will never have enough money to achieve the American dream.
Let’s get real.
These numbers didn’t suddenly appear in a vacuum.
The truth is that our standard of living has been declining for a very long time.
I am about to share something with you that is absolutely shocking.
One man recently shared his paystub that shows what he brings home every two weeks.
After taxes, healthcare and child support, his net pay after working 85 hours is just $163.02…
How is he supposed to live on that?
I am so frustrated with those that think that everything is going to be just fine.
The number of foreclosure filings in the U.S. skyrocketed in 2025, and in the first quarter of this year they were 26 percent above last year’s blistering pace…
The Wall Street Journal reported that data from Attom shows the number of U.S. properties with a foreclosure filing has trended up to nearly 119,000 in the first quarter, an increase of 26% from the same period last year.
That figure is the highest since the first quarter of 2020, when mortgage relief measures implemented to mitigate the economic impact of COVID shutdowns led to a steep decline in foreclosures.
Unfortunately, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is making things even worse.
The average price of a gallon of gasoline in California is now up to $6.114…
California gas prices have climbed to eye-watering levels, with one rural county emerging as one of the most expensive fuel markets in the United States.
Mono County, a remote area in eastern California just east of Yosemite National Park, is seeing average prices close to seven dollars per gallon, according to AAA data. That compares with a statewide average of $6.114 per gallon and a national average of $4.457.
As I discussed yesterday, some residents of Los Angeles are now paying more than 8 dollars a gallon.
Higher gasoline prices will mean that Americans have even less discretionary income to play around with.
Some restaurant chains are already feeling this…
Wingstop, a chicken-wing chain that touts its affordability, said that higher fuel prices contributed to an 8.7% decline in quarterly same-store sales.
The chain’s CEO, Michael Skipworth, said Wednesday on a call with investors that it was “extremely difficult for anyone to predict this macro environment,” adding that he expects shrinking sales over this year in part because of expectations that gas prices will remain high.
This is not something that may or may not happen someday.
This is happening right now, and we are witnessing the consequences all over America.
In Los Angeles, rampant social decay has become a way of life…
Reality star-turned-Los Angeles mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt shared a devastating must-see campaign advertisement on X, showing how dire the situation is in LA under Democrat leadership.
The somber video, titled “City of Angels, Fallen – Part 1,” uses a rapid montage of raw street footage, news clips, and on-screen text to show just how far Los Angeles has declined under Karen Bass and Democrats, noting, “business as usual is a death sentence.”
Included in the video are stark images of homeless camps, a person lying unconscious or asleep on a dirty sidewalk next to trash bags, a sandwich on a plate, scattered belongings, and individuals who appear to be in the throes of drug abuse.
How could we have allowed this to happen?
According to Pratt, there are 70,000 drug addicts that are roaming the streets…
Speaking on fire recovery, Pratt notes, “The city failed everyone. The insurance companies failed everyone.”
He continues, “Mothers who want to go to the park but don’t want to inhale fentanyl from the 70,000 drug addicts that the Mayor currently let’s live on our streets.”
Of course this isn’t just happening in Los Angeles.
In Seattle, street violence has become so common outside of one McDonald’s restaurant that it has become known as “McStabby’s”…
Two thugs were caught on video viciously beating an elderly man outside of ‘America’s scariest McDonald’s.’
The Seattle restaurant is so dangerous it is nicknamed ‘McStabby’s’, and bans customers from going inside due to constant mayhem.
In the latest chaotic scene, two men were seen standing on the street outside the eatery around 10pm on April 19 when a frail 77-year-old man walked towards them.
The two men then approached the victim before one struck him in the head.
Needless to say, it isn’t just old men that are being viciously attacked for no reason.
One very unfortunate 33-year-old man is on the verge of death after being hit in the head with a hammer more than a dozen times…
A 33-year-old Seattle man is fighting for his life after his mother says a stranger repeatedly hit him in the head with a hammer in an unprovoked assault.
Lisa Driscoll is calling for justice after her son, 33-year-old George Miller, was beaten repeatedly with a hammer just after midnight Monday outside the Renaissance Hotel. She says a stranger hit him in the head more than a dozen times.
“It was an evil, brutal, unprovoked, horrific attack,” Driscoll said. “Someone who was reported to appear to be hunting to attack someone crossed over, took a hammer out of their backpack and started beating him over the head repeatedly.”
Whether we like it or not, this is our country now.
We have raised an entire generation of young people that is simply not equipped to deal with very harsh economic conditions.
Sadly, economic conditions are only going to get harsher.
It is time to wake up, because a nightmare scenario really is upon us.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
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Jobless Claims & JOLTs Confirm 'Higher Hire, No Fire' Economy
With JOLTs data showing record hiring (and ADP signaling acceleration in job additions), today we get some signal on firings as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time was at 200k last week (below the 205k exp) and continuing to languish near multi-decade lows (near 1967 lows!!)...
Source: Bloomberg
Non-seasonally adjusted across all the states saw a 299k drop in claims led by Rhode Island and Arizona (California and Michigan saw the biggest increases)...
Continuing jobless claims also fell, now at 1.766 million Americans receiving unemployment benefits (better than the expected 1.8 million expected) and at its lowest since Jan 2024...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that Challenger, Gray, & Christmas pointed out that in April, Artificial Intelligence (AI) led all reasons for job cuts for the second month in a row, with 21,490 announced during the month, 26% of total cuts. This reason has been cited for 49,135 cuts this year, and it is the third-leading cause of layoff plans.
AI accounts for roughly 16% of all 2026 job cut plans, up from 13% through March.
“Technology companies continue to announce large-scale cuts and are leading all industries in layoff announcements,” said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer.
“Regardless of whether individual jobs are being replaced by AI, the money for those roles is.”
Overall, Challenger, Gray, & Christmas says U.S.-based employers announced 83,387 job cuts in April, down 21% from the 105,441 cuts announced during the same month last year.
Another alternative labor market data source, Revelio Labs, shows a sizable rise in jobs this month - best since March 2025 (all adding up to a solid print for tomorrow)...
Led by a big uptick in Services jobs...
Taking all of that into account, it appears we have morphed into a 'higher hire, no fire' economy (but tomorrow's payrolls print could throw shade on that idea).
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/07/2026 - 08:35