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Did META Just Expose The First Crack In The AI CapEx Boom?
If you're wondering why the Nasdaq is suddenly tumbling this morning, wonder no more...
Nasdaq moves lower after Meta announces it has capitulated in the race to build a leading frontier LLM it is to build a cloud business to sell its excess AI compute, weighing on cloud peers like AMZN, ORCL, MSFT, neoclouds like Coreweave and Nebius (who will now be racing to the bottom for customers) and chip and memory names like NVDA, MU, INTO, as demand for their products is now likely to be much less thanks to the excess META capacity on offer.
As Bloomberg reports:
Meta, which has been rushing to secure expensive data centers and other infrastructure to fuel its own artificial intelligence ambitions, is forming a business to generate revenue from excess computing power sold to outside customers, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as the details aren’t public.
One potential plan includes selling access to various AI models that are hosted on Meta’s existing AI infrastructure, an approach similar to AWS’s Bedrock offering, the people said.
Meta would run the data centers and chips that power the models, including its own Muse Spark models, and charge developers to access them.
The report also notes that the company is considering selling access to “raw” computing capacity, taking a chunk out of the business of neoclouds like CoreWeave. Ironically, META just signed multi-billion deals with CoreWeave and Nebius, and now it is turning around to compete with the very suppliers it is paying.
Development of these new business lines is part of Meta Compute, an internal initiative to build and manage the company’s AI infrastructure efforts, according to a person familiar with the plans. Meta Compute is led by Santosh Janardhan, Meta’s head of infrastructure; Daniel Gross, a leader inside the Meta Superintelligence Labs AI unit; and Meta President Dina Powell McCormick.
Despite the complexities, Meta Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg has signaled to investors that he’s open to selling excess computing infrastructure, or even a so-called API service where customers would pay for AI usage — a business that’s usually measured in “tokens,” or the amount of data used and generated for a customer query.
“It’s definitely on the table,” Zuckerberg said during a call with shareholders in May.
“Almost every week there are different companies that come to us from the outside asking us to both stand up an API service or asking if we have compute that they could buy from us at some premium to what we’ve bought it at.”
This move comes after SpaceX started leasing its 'excess compute' (which is struggling now that it has competition in selling 'compute'):
...raising questions about the potential for cutting CapEx which has perhaps overshot token demand...
...did META just shatter the market’s central premise has been that compute is scarce...
As Goldman Sachs 1-Delta desk-head, Rich Privorotsky, has been warning:
“The market’s central premise has been that compute is scarce.
If scarcity persists, prices should remain firm and justify continued capex.
If supply rises and rental prices continue to drift lower, that is a direct challenge to the shortage narrative.
The first place that pain shows up is hardware.
ORNN H100 index rolling over last couple days worth watching.
The beneficiaries are the companies selling the complete platform and monetizing usage rather than simply selling picks and shovels. My working conclusion remains that hyperscalers are the structural winners through this phase.
The first moment they demonstrate they can deliver equivalent output with lower spend, the market will reward them.
The bigger risk sits further upstream in the hardware and infrastructure stack where expectations remain built around persistent scarcity."
Simply put, confessions of 'excess capacity' will crush the hyperbolic dreams of the CapEx cycle that underpins so much of the market's recent incredible performance.
And the pivot to rewarding CapEx cutters begins...
"Lots of underperformance in hyperscalers. Everyone still appears convinced they must keep spending simply to remain competitive, while token cost compression/advent of neoclouds puts pricing pressure on core business. If token prices continue to compress alongside falling compute costs, the benefits may accrue to users faster than providers.
Ironically, the first hyperscaler to signal that it can slow the pace of spending will likely see its share price rewarded.
If that happens, others will take notice.
That is the reflexivity that ultimately stalls the capex cycle… not a lack of demand, but investors deciding that incremental returns on the next dollar of spend are no longer attractive.
Watch hyperscalers share price as leading indicator."
Don't say you weren't warned.
UBS traders see it a similar way, noting that reports that META may build out a cloud business to monetize excess compute capacity is shifting the narrative...
...being interpreted as a sign that capex expectations are no longer skewed to the upside, allowing focus to shift toward free cash flow stabilization and a potential incremental revenue stream at what are seen as near-trough valuation multiples.
The reference to excess capacity is creating some unease around underlying AI demand and has negative read-throughs for neocloud players, while also raising questions around the durability of compute and memory bottlenecks.
Into earnings, the key question is whether in-line 2Q and 3Q guidance alongside reiterated full-year capex would be sufficient to sustain the current re-rating.
In semis, price action suggests investors are linking the announcement to a potential moderation in future capex growth and a shortening in the duration of above-trend demand, even if some argue hyperscalers could absorb incremental capacity.
Neoclouds are seen as clear losers on the development.
For hyperscalers, the read-through is more mixed, with a new potential competitor emerging but also some expectation of cost relief if supply constraints ease. Early conversations suggest concerns around overbuild remain more company-specific rather than indicative of a broader industry shift, particularly given relative positioning in AI investment cycles.
META shares are notably higher on the news...
Chipmakers are hurting...
The writing had been on the wall...
...and Premium Subscribers can read the full notes we have published over the past month here:
-
'How Far Can The Rubber Band Stretch?': Goldman 1-Delta Desk Says 'This Is The Breaking Point'
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Will 'Rampart' Wreck The Hyperscaler 'To The Moon' Narrative? Goldman 1-Delta Desk Deep-Dives
Buckle Up!
Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 11:52Is The SpaceX Asteroid About To Impact The TelCo & Cable Dinosaurs?
Authored by Simon Duff via BondVigilantes.com,
SpaceX’s IPO was a gargantuan event by any measure: US$75 billion proceeds raised, over US$2 trillion enterprise value, and an almost US$29 trillion total addressable market to feast on. Few other companies can rival its industrial span and potential seismic impact on consumers and competitors. SpaceX’s valuation is driven by its sci-fi AI segment replete with space-based data centres and moon bases. However, its more immediate impact maybe felt in the more down to earth world of telecom.
SpaceX’s cash cow is the Connectivity segment where it operates a constellation of 9,600 low earth orbit (“LEO”) satellites under the Starlink brand.
These provide broadband and in-fill mobile voice & data services to consumers in predominantly remote areas where terrestrial broadband and mobile networks are patchy or absent.
In addition, Starlink offers broadband services to ships and aircraft where terrestrial networks are entirely absent.
In 2025, the Connectivity unit generated US$3 billion free cash flow (EBITDA less capex) from almost 9 million broadband and over 6 million mobile global subscribers and from its corporate contracts with airlines and ship operators.
By way of comparison, the 5 largest US telecom & cable players generated almost US$111bn free cash flow (EBITDA less capex) and had approximately 95m broadband subscribers and 275m mobile postpaid subscribers.
Looking at those stats you would be forgiven for thinking that US telecom & cable operators don’t have all that much to worry about. The problem is that this is just the beginning for controlling shareholder and CEO Musk who has proved himself a visionary with Olympian levels of ambition and matching access to capital.
Using the latest and largest Starship rockets, Musk plans to launch 10,000 next generation V3 satellites from late 2026. Each of these satellites will have 1 terabit of capacity, which is 10x the capacity of the current V2 satellites. This ramped capacity will boost current median download speeds (225Mbps) to levels on a par with fibre and cable terrestrial alternatives. It will also allow pricing to come down (vs the current US$66 average cost per month). True, there are issues around the need for “line of sight” from the dish to the satellite in dense urban areas and practical difficulties around installation in multi dwelling unit (MDU) housing blocks. But these are portions of the market and hence a break rather than a block on roll out and uptake.
Obviously, the incumbent operators will not sit there like lemons waiting to be squeezed. Instead they can try to lock in their bases via converged broadband and mobile bundles, often at a discount (as both AT&T and Verizon’s recent offers implied). Or they can simply cut their standalone broadband pricing. Either way, the risk is broadband subscriber losses, or revenue per subscriber decline, or a combination of both. And this would be in a market that no longer benefits from immigration or housing build tailwinds that historically increased the total available economic pie in the US. Most exposed to this risk are the US’s dominant broadband providers: the cable operators. Both Comcast and Charter equity have fallen approx. 30% & 70% in the last year, respectively, with the pace of decline picking up notably as the SpaceX IPO bandwagon rolled into town.
However, does Musk stop there?
If we can think of an incumbent bundled defensive play then we are pretty darned sure that Musk can too. So how would he counter the incumbents’ counter? In short, by going mobile. At present, the party line from the telecom operators is that Starlink’s “direct to device” (D2D) service is a pure complementary in-fill service to supplement mobile operators’ existing coverage and nothing more. However, their behaviour suggests otherwise. All three players (Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile) have been clear that they will not offer Starlink a “virtual network” agreement enabling Musk to re-badge and re-sell their mobile service.
Similarly, all three were swift to announce a D2D JV that would enable them to present a united front to Starlink on future negotiations.
Assuming the US mobile players hold this line and are allowed to do so by regulators, then Starlink has two options if it’s serious about offering mobile beyond remote areas: build or buy a terrestrial network. To build its own mobile network Starlink would need spectrum and terrestrial infrastructure (towers, fibre backhaul, network radios). Starlink already has access to 65 Mhz of terrestrial spectrum (different from the spectrum it uses to offer broadband) that was acquired from Echostar. Although dwarfed by the incumbents’ spectrum holdings, Starlink’s network would be relatively empty and upcoming auctions offer the chance to supplement these holdings. Furthermore, Echostar (a 3% SpaceX shareholder) could play a complementary role as either an acquisition target or partner that brings with it a range of network related assets/agreements that could facilitate a Starlink mobile network roll out. Not least of which is a multi-year AT&T national roaming deal that AT&T has been tight-lipped on confirming or denying a change of control break clause to prevent Starlink exploiting this valuable contract.
And Echostar is not the only option. When Musk was recently asked if he could consider buying Verizon he said that “it was not out of the question”. To be clear, Verizon’s market capitalisation is less than 10% of SpaceX’s and also brings with it valuable FCF (YE25: US$20bn). Lastly, we don’t think it is any co-incidence that the rumour mill has been spinning with regard to German incumbent Deutsche Telekom buying out its 54% owned subsidiary, T-Mobile USA. If Musk is going to be on a shopping spree you probably want to own 100% of what he might want to buy and T-Mobile USA offers the best mobile network, deepest mobile spectrum portfolio and the least “redundant” broadband exposure of all the US players. Unfortunately AT&T is probably overly endowed in this latter area with 38m fibre homes passed and hence unlikely to be of interest to SpaceX. All in all, we see the potential for a single mobile player being acquired as cold comfort to the US telcos relative to the potential step change in the competitive dynamic across the broader ecosystem.
And who is best insulated from all this potential disruption?
From an industrial perspective, towers look well positioned.
If the US goes to four networks, demand for space on the towers will increase whilst, if SpaceX acquires an incumbent, tower demand should at least remain steady no matter how squeezed the incumbent operators’ margins become.
From a geographical perspective, a combination of Europe’s lower pricing from years of fierce competition & regulation, SpaceX’s lack of terrestrial spectrum, and Europe’s higher urban and MDU density make it a much harder market to attack.
Ironically, European telcos that have long played second fiddle to their US counterparts on competitive dynamics, growth rates and FCF generation might now heave a sigh of relief and actually be thankful for the harsh regulation and competitive dynamics they previously railed against.
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Miller: Every Single Haitian Migrant Is Going Back To Haiti Under Trump
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,
White House Homeland Security Adviser Stephen Miller delivered a clear and forceful message: every Haitian national on Temporary Protected Status will be returned to Haiti under President Trump.
The Biden administration's last-year extension of TPS turned what began as a short-term response to a 2010 earthquake into a permanent pipeline. Miller called the deliberate importation of these migrants into places like Springfield, Ohio, one of the most heinous acts the government has ever committed.
Miller laid it out without hedging:
Stephen Miller: "The illegal alien Haitians are going back to Haiti. They can build their country there."
pic.twitter.com/l56e2Tu5fH
"There's an earthquake in Haiti. So she's (Former DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano) announcing TPS for a few months while they're recovering from an earthquake. That was in 2010, 15 years ago. Then the Biden administration in its last year extends TPS to every single illegal alien from Haiti while they are flying them en masse into Springfield, Ohio, across the Midwest."
He continued, "It was a formal policy of replacing the communities that lived in, settled, and sustained these communities for generations. It was one of the most heinous things this government has ever done."
"And yes, under President Trump, let me be very clear, the illegal alien Haitians are going back to Haiti. They can build their country there," Miller further urged.
This directly follows the Trump administration's earlier termination of TPS protections for 353,000 Haitians, with those designations set to expire.
The move reversed Biden-era renewals that kept hundreds of thousands in the country long after any temporary justification had passed.
Springfield became the most visible example of the fallout. Local residents watched as federal policies funneled large numbers of Haitian migrants into their city, straining housing, schools, and public resources.
Stephen Miller says every single Haitian on temporary protected status is going back
He says The Biden Admin specifically imported them into Ohio to replace the native population and "It was one of the most heinous things this government has ever done"
"There's an earthquake in... pic.twitter.com/4mfehuGJkM
Americans reported being priced out of apartments while migrants received housing assistance.
Parks saw geese and other wildlife targeted. In one city commission meeting, Springfield City Manager Brian Heck admitted he had "heard about" reports of Haitian migrants eating pets.
The conditions many of these migrants left behind in Haiti only underscore why prolonged TPS extensions made little sense. Armed gangs, including groups with documented histories of extreme violence and intimidation tactics, have dominated large parts of the country.
Earlier coverage highlighted how some media outlets appeared more exercised by conservatives simply stating these facts than by the violence itself.
In a separate but related immigration development today, the Supreme Court issued a 5-4 ruling striking down President Trump's executive order limiting birthright citizenship for children born to illegal immigrants.
BREAKING: In a 5-4 ruling, the Supreme Court struck down President Trump's executive order limiting birthright citizenship for children born to illegal immigrants in the United States. pic.twitter.com/XZDld7UkxT
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) June 30, 2026The decision keeps in place a policy that automatically grants U.S. citizenship to children born on American soil regardless of their parents' legal status.
Critics have long argued this creates powerful incentives for unlawful entry and serves as a form of chain migration that complicates enforcement.
One of the most destructive and outrageous decisions in the long history of the Supreme Court. American citizenship is not the birthright of the world. It belongs only and solely to Americans. No provision of the Constitution can be read to require our national self-obliteration. https://t.co/qZuwzZq5tr
— Stephen Miller (@StephenM) June 30, 2026The 14th Amendment's citizenship clause was crafted in the aftermath of slavery to secure rights for freed people, not to function as a standing invitation for foreign nationals to secure citizenship for their offspring through illegal presence.
While the birthright ruling hands open-border advocates a victory and adds another layer of legal friction to enforcement, Miller's remarks show the administration is not pausing on other fronts.
TPS designations were always meant to be temporary. Extending them for 15 years while actively importing large numbers into specific American communities was never about humanitarian relief - it was about demographic engineering.
American towns like Springfield paid the price in drastically altered neighborhoods, and lost quality of life. Restoring the original meaning of temporary protection and returning those without ongoing legal status is not radical. It is the baseline responsibility of any government that puts its own citizens first.
The message from the White House is consistent: the replacement experiment is over. Those here under expired or terminated protections are going home.
Haiti's future will be built by Haitians in Haiti, not by continuing to offload its population onto American communities that never asked for the burden.
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Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 11:05