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Five Below Plunges After Earnings Beat, Warns Consumer Boost From Tax Refunds Is Ending
Five Below's core customer base is tweens, teens, and value-conscious households. That makes management's warning on Wednesday's earnings call particularly notable: the retailer is directly exposed to trends in low-end discretionary spending.
"We're looking at the world that our customers are living in: with rising fuel costs, with very sticky inflation, with a somewhat—soft labor market. And we think a piece of that pain that they are feeling wasn't felt in the first quarter purely because of tax proceeds," CFO Daniel Sullivan told analysts during an earnings call.
"We remain cautious with respect to the macro environment, consumer sentiment and buying behaviors," Sullivan added.
Shares of Five Below plunged 10% in premarket trading after the discount retailer issued a dismal outlook for the consumer this summer, despite beating first-quarter earnings expectations and raising full-year profit guidance.
Same-store sales surged nearly 23%, exceeding the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 17.8%, which was mostly helped by viral demand for a "squishy dumpling" toy.
Snapshot of the first quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):
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Net sales $1.29 billion, +32% y/y, estimate $1.22 billion
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Adjusted EPS $2.22, estimate $1.75
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EPS $2.21 vs. 75c y/y
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Comparable sales +22.7%, estimate +17.8%
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Total stores 1,970, estimate 1,967
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Net new stores opened 49, estimate 45.94
Five Below also raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $8.65 to $9.05 from $7.74 to $8.25. The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was $8.30. It kept its second-half outlook unchanged, citing deteriorating consumer sentiment amid a very challenging macroeconomic environment as the tax-refund sugar high fades.
Snapshot of full-year forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):
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Sees net sales $5.40 billion to $5.48 billion, saw $5.20 billion to $5.30 billion, estimate $5.37 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
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Sees adjusted EPS $8.65 to $9.05, saw $7.74 to $8.25, estimate $8.30
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Sees EPS $8.62 to $9.02, saw $7.69 to $8.20
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Sees comparable sales +6% to +8%, estimate +5.95%
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Sees net income $480 million to $502 million, saw $429 million to $457 million, estimates $455.3 million
Five Below's concerns about consumers this summer come as working-class families face a cash crunch in the coming months, with Trump-era tax refund tailwinds fading and Iran-related fuel shocks squeezing budgets.
Tax refunds averaging nearly $3,500 have largely helped keep spending resilient, with Walmart, Target, and Lowe's citing refund-driven support in recent earnings calls.
But some retailers warn that the tax refund boost is only temporary. Target said the tax refund benefit will fade in the back half of the year, while Advance Auto Parts expects sales to slow as the refund tailwind disappears.
Low-cost retailers such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree have reported stronger quarterly earnings as they see trading down from wealthier households seeking discounted items.
"They're literally running out of money at the end of the month," Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane said in a recent interview with the WSJ. "We're seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they're dipping into savings."
Earlier this month, we showed that personal spending growth far outpaced personal income.
... the personal savings rate has collapsed to a 3-year low.
Read UBS analyst Mark Paski's note from last week, which warned about a potential "fiscal cliff" for consumers in the second half of 2026, as excess cash buffers from refunds begin to fade.
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Constellation's Three Mile Island Nuclear Restart Gets Boost With FERC Waiver
By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive
Constellation Energy’s plans to restart the Crane nuclear power plant - formerly, and better known as Three Mile Island Unit 1 - were boosted Monday when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved a waiver for the company from PJM Interconnection rules. FERC approved Constellation’s waiver request over the objections of PJM’s independent market monitor.
Under the decision, Constellation will be able to transfer 760 MW of Capacity Interconnection Rights, or CIRs, from its Eddystone power plant near Philadelphia to the Crane unit. The transfer will increase the amount of electricity the nuclear unit can deliver to the grid.
Constellation Energy’s Three Mile Island nuclear power plant near Middletown, Pa. The company’s plans to restart the plant’s Unit 1 were boosted when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved a waiver for the company from PJM Interconnection rules on June 1, 2026.Constellation planned to retire two Eddystone units on May 31, 2025, but the Department of Energy has ordered the company to them to keep running under what the DOE has described as an emergency energy shortage.
Under the DOE’s orders, the Eddystone units are not considered capacity resources, making their CIRs free to be transferred, according to Baltimore-based Constellation.
Constellation’s $1.6 billion plan to restart the 835-MW Crane nuclear unit hit a snag when PJM determined that transmission upgrades were needed to safely deliver all the unit’s power to the grid.
Those upgrades — including 765-kV and 500-kV projects — aren’t expected to be finished until December 2030 and could be delayed even longer, preventing full deliveries from the nuclear unit, which could restart in the second half of 2027, Constellation said in its March 31 waiver request at FERC.
Constellation’s request met FERC’s criteria for granting waivers, including that it solves a concrete problem, according to the agency.
“The requested waiver will allow for the transfer of CIRs between the Eddystone units and Crane, which may reduce or eliminate the number of Contingent Facilities for Crane and thereby potentially increase Crane’s interim deliverability and enable Crane to be fully operational before December 31, 2030,” FERC said.
Also, granting the waiver will not have undesirable consequences, such as harming third parties, FERC said.
“Rather, the requested waiver will provide a more efficient use of CIRs due to the Eddystone units’ current inability to use their CIRs as a result of DOE orders requiring them to operate as energy-only resources,” FERC said.
Constellation has a 20-year deal to sell all the energy, capacity and clean energy attributes from the nuclear unit to Microsoft for data centers across PJM’s Mid-Atlantic and Midwest footprint.
In its waiver request, Constellation said that reaching full deliverability status was especially important for the Crane unit. If run for extended periods below their rated power output, the equipment in nuclear units face risk of elevated vibration and wear, which can pose reliability problems, according to the independent power producer.
Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 07:20