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The couple wished their youngest a very happy birthday in a sweet social media post.

The couple wished their youngest a very happy birthday in a sweet social media post.

Trade $10 to get $10 with the Kalshi promo code NYPMAX to make predictions on the Memorial.

Democrats' welcome to the anti-Israel left has grown so bad that they've now tapped the next worst thing to al Qaeda associate for a safe House seat in New Jersey.

When Steve Kerr was considering whether to return as Warriors' head coach, his wife said something that deeply resonated with him.

Former federal prosecutor says authorities likely know where Hooker is but are building their case.

Since 2022 Just A Handful Of Countries Have Driven All Sovereign Gold Demand

The 2008 financial crisis marked a structural shift in central bank behaviour

Back in January, UBS showed that most of last year’s increase in gold prices was driven by US policy shocks boosting private demand.

The bulk of the gold price increase last year can be attributed to US policy shifts: UBS

Running in parallel, however, has been a more gradual but persistent rise in official sector gold holdings. A common narrative, one which was started largely on this website, is that this shift began with the Russia–Ukraine conflict, when the freezing of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves heightened incentives for countries to diversify into assets such as gold. (Russia, for example, confirmed in 2021 that its gold reserves are fully held domestically.)

While that is true, UBS chief economist Arendy Kapteyn notes that the true turning point in official sector gold demand came well before 2022. The increase in official sector gold holdings began around the global financial crisis in 2008, not in 2022 (roughly 85% of the increase occurred between August 2008 and February 2022, and about 15% since then).

While sanctions risk has clearly accelerated and reinforced the trend - Russia also stepped up purchases after Crimea in 2014 - but it is likely not the root cause. As highlighted in this IMF paper, the GFC led emerging markets to reassess the safety of advanced-economy assets, given stresses in banking systems and sovereign balance sheets, making gold an attractive hedge.

At the same time, rapid reserve accumulation in the 2000s left many countries heavily exposed to a narrow set of “safe” assets, raising both concentration and correlation risks. In addition, post GFC policies (QE and ultra-low yields) sharply reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold.

What is perhaps most notable is how concentrated - across a universe of roughly 200 countries - the buying has been. Between 2008 and 2022, just six countries — Russia, China, Turkey, India, Poland, and Kazakhstan — accounted for almost the entire increase in official gold holdings. But since 2022, a slightly different group — China, Poland, India, Iraq, Czechia, and Qatar — has driven essentially all net purchases.

See here and here for more detail, for pro subs.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 06:55

Humanoid Robots Remain Years Away From Replacing Human Workers

Authored by Stephen Katte via Cointelegraph,

AI robotics company Figure posted several videos on X throughout May showcasing its robots performing basic tasks, including cleaning a room and sorting packages.

Modern artificial intelligence-powered robots are impressive in their capabilities, but are still years away from replacing humans as they can't yet adapt to changing conditions, researchers say.

Last month, AI robotics company Figure showcased its humanoid robots performing basic tasks, such as cleaning a room, but a series of robots working for nine days straight sorting packages sparked conversation about how soon robots could replace jobs.

Welcome to Day 9 of our humanoid livestream: 191 consecutive hours and 238,000 packages.

- Figure (@Figure_robot) May 21, 2026

Oliver Obst, an associate professor of robotics at the Australia based University of New South Wales, told Cointelegraph that repetitive jobs such as physical work in structured environments are currently most at risk of being replaced by robots, while administrative and document-processing tasks could be replaced by AI.

There has been growing concern that AI and robots will replace people in jobs as technology advances. A report in May from workforce consulting firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas found that US companies have laid off an estimated 49,135 people in 2026 due to AI.

However, Obst said that humanoid robots are unlikely to see a mass rollout soon because they don't appear to be more efficient or less error-prone than current robotic manufacturing methods.

"Even in relatively structured settings, they still face problems with reliability, speed, safety, cost, and recovery from unexpected situations," he said. "The harder the environment is to control, the harder the robotics problem becomes. Most human jobs involve more variation and more judgment than the package-sorting demonstration."

"I would not say we are at the point of mass replacement by humanoid robots. We are much closer to the selective automation of some tasks. AI software is moving faster and is already affecting some forms of information work, but physical robots still have a much harder problem to solve."

In another video in May, a human worker managed to sort more packages compared to a team of Figure's robots, which swapped out when needing a recharge. Figure CEO Brett Adock said it would be the last time "a human will ever win."

Congrats to Aime!! He said his left forearm is basically broken. Final scores: F.03: 12,732 packages (2.83 seconds/package) - Aime: 12,924 packages (2.79 seconds/package). This is the last time a human will ever win.

- Brett Adcock (@adcock_brett) May 17, 2026 People Still Better Than Bots In Some Areas

Markus Levin, co-founder of decentralized data network XYO, said AI models and automation software can perform repetitive tasks with far greater consistency and endurance than humans; however, robots still require charging, maintenance and supervision.

A report in September from the International Federation of Robotics found that global demand for factory robots has doubled over the last decade, with warehouses and logistics among the fastest-growing areas of adoption.

"I believe broad human replacement is still likely years away," Levin added, "Reliability, safety, regulation, infrastructure costs, and trust remain major barriers to full-scale deployment across society. The challenge is no longer simply making machines capable of acting but ensuring they can operate safely and reliably as they take on greater autonomy."

Dr Francisco Cruz Naranjo, a senior lecturer at the University of New South Wales with a PhD in robotics, said the efficiency of robots compared to people depends heavily on the activity and the environment.

"Robots are much better at repetitive tasks without the need for constant pauses, as showcased in the Figure livestream. However, in highly dynamic environments, robots still struggle to quickly adapt to changing conditions," he said.

"Humans, in this case, are much better. This is precisely why robots at the moment are highly efficient in controlled environments, such as factories, but they have not yet succeeded widely in home settings."

Naranjo said repetitive jobs performed in a less static setting are at risk of being replaced by robots, but it will depend on how quickly research advances and how quickly society adapts in areas like making spaces robot-friendly, which is likely years away.

Robots In Society Could Be Beneficial

Naranjo and Obst said that a mass rollout of robots in the workforce could be of some benefit, such as improving work-life balance, increasing the workforce in areas with shortages, and addressing dangerous environments that are too risky for humans.

"The social question is harder. If robots make dangerous work cheaper in human terms, that can be good. But it can also have unintended consequences. For example, keeping humans out of harm's way in military operations may save lives, but it could also lower the perceived cost of conflict," Obst said.

"Hypothetically, if we became very successful at automating almost all work, then society would need to rethink economies that are currently built around individual wages and employment."

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 06:30

Now anyone can get their very own anti-aircraft weapon — courtesy of Russia and its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

The boss of X, Tesla and SpaceX is the world's richest person and has used his platform to make his views known on a vast array of topics.

A viral Tennessee movie theater worker, 85, was surprised with $146K as strangers rallied together to help her “enjoy retirement.”

Ofqual chief says invigilators are being trained to detect devices like smart glasses and hidden earpieces.

White House deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino shared a video on X of Trump making the announcement during a private dinner in the Rose Garden. 

My stalker won’t scare me off the 6 train — or keep me from calling out Zohran Mamdani’s tacit support for antisemitic radicalism around the world.

Chairman Brendan Carr says the agency wants to ensure federally subsidized internet supports education, not distractions.

UBS Warns El Nino May Intensify Food Inflation Across Asia

By now, readers have a clear understanding that the Gulf-driven energy shock is on course to collide with a potential super El Niño weather event, creating what could be a dangerous second-order shock to food supply chains around the world.

The concern is that extreme heat and disrupted rainfall patterns could hit top agricultural growing belts, dent harvest output, and amplify existing supply stress. Even before those weather-driven impacts fully materialize, global food prices are already rising, suggesting that fertilizer and elevated diesel prices are beginning to be transmitted through the broader food supply chain.

Our Tuesday note on Thailand white rice, a regional Asian benchmark, surging 20% in May, the largest monthly increase in data going back to 2008, is another warning signal that the price action in the grain feeding half the world has entered a new upward impulse.

The troubling move in rice prices, including a 15% surge in Chicago rice futures last month, indicates that food-inflation pressures are already materializing. The concern is that these pressures could materially worsen once El Niño-driven weather disruptions begin affecting key growing regions.

UBS analysts led by Leigha Miyata published a note titled "Food Inflation & El Niño Evidence Check," confirming what we have been tracking for months: the Middle East-driven fertilizer shock is now moving through the global food supply chain just as El Niño risks rise, creating the potential for an inflation surge across Asia later this year into 2027.

Miyata noted that El Niño odds currently stand around 82% for May to June and 96% for December into early 2027, raising the risk of hotter, drier conditions across South and Southeast Asia that could pressure harvests.

Via Miyata ...

El Niño likelihood raised to 82%; expect Asia to be hotter and have less rain:

The El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in Dec 2026-Feb 2027, NOAA). Historical patterns show higher temperatures in Indonesia and northern Australia (Figure 1). Temperatures are normally lower in South Korea and Japan, though a "super El Niño" could reverse this, bringing intense heat and rainfall. Precipitation is lower in South and Southeast Asia, posing risks to harvests (Figure 2). Other El Niño impacts include higher power demand, lower supply, and increased disease risk (see p3).

Fertilizer Prices - Urea prices correcting, now +23% since the Iran conflict started:

Though nitrogen supply remains tight, we have seen diverging trends in the last few weeks on the product level. Ammonia pricing has been stable to higher, UAN pricing has been stable, while urea pricing has seen downward corrections, $190/MT (~23%) lower than its peak level in April. Overall the UBS chemicals team see this pointing to the market having moved past peak seasonal tightness, with 2Q likely marking the high point. We believe structurally tight supply from restricted trade flows and constrained production will continue to support the pricing outlook for 2H26/2027 above the cost curve however, and note that physical market flows have yet to improve (full report).

Gov't measures have been helpful, but inflation is rising across Asia:

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 130.7 points in April 2026, up 1.6% from March, marking a third consecutive rise but at a slower pace. Gains in vegetable oils, meat, and cereals were partly offset by declines in sugar and dairy. The index was 2.0% higher year-on-year but remained 18.4% below its March 2022 peak. Inflation across all major Asian economies is increasing with the exception of Indonesia and Japan, and corn futures for 2026/2027 are up ~4%/5% since the Iran conflict started. UBS economists explain that inflation was likely lower in many Asian economies due to quick policy-action post Iran conflict, but that inflation will likely rise going forward (full report). In the Philippines, the level of inflation has shot up from 2.3%/3.9% in Feb/Mar to 7.1% in Apr. In Thailand, deflation in Feb/Mar has shifted to 2.9% inflation in April (Figure 5). For Japan, there are no clear signs yet of strong inflationary pressure from Middle East tensions. However, we expect national CPI for May to pick up slightly to 1.5% from 1.4% in April, suggesting April was likely the trough. Food inflation in Japan decelerated from 4.6% YoY in April to 4.1% YoY in May, though on a MoM basis, food inflation rose 0.3% (full report).

Packaging and freight costs are up; El Niño in 2026-27, fertilizer impact in 2027:

Plastic packaging prices in Japan are reported to be up 20 to 30%. This together with transport costs are expected to raise food prices, but this is not yet visible in the data for Japan. If El Niño materializes, we may see drought impact the harvests in Sep 2026- and Apr 2027- in South and Southeast Asia. Higher fertilizer costs may also affect harvests from April 2027 onwards.

UBS views on El Niño impacts

1. Agri-business: Tightening global balances and large speculative shorts mean an El Niño-driven disruption to India's monsoon could reduce sugar production by ~3–8mn tons YoY and trigger price spikes.

2. Agriculture & Inflation (India): El Niño-driven weak monsoon risks (forecast ~92% of normal rainfall) could lift food inflation, though only ~21% of CPI is directly impacted, limiting first-round effects but raising second-round risks if shocks persist.

3. Health Care (Brazil): El Niño-driven changes in mosquito patterns could increase dengue cases, with prior events (2023/24) coinciding with record infections (~6.6mn cases).

4. Thermal coal / Power demand: A potential "super El Niño" could drive extreme heat across Asia, boosting electricity demand (especially for cooling) and increasing coal demand and imports, tightening seaborne markets.

5. Hydropower / Power supply: El Niño-related rainfall shifts could reduce hydro generation in LatAm and Africa, further supporting demand for thermal coal.

6. Insurance / Reinsurance: El Niño conditions are associated with below-average hurricane activity, which could improve insurers' near-term book value but pressure pricing due to increased capital supply. In Australia, El Niño years tend to have lower catastrophe losses, though drought and bushfire risks rise.

Figure 6: Real GDP growth %y/y: pre- and post-Iran conflict

Figure 7: Asia's inflation likely to pick up on base effects

Figure 12: Energy/fertilizer shock impact chain

Figure 13: Thailand and India are likely to be negatively impacted in APAC. All importers, including Japan will face higher prices

Related:

• We Are 6 Months From Global Food Shortages Because Farmers Are Facing A Quadruple Whammy Crisis

• Everyone Talks About The Cost Of Gasoline... Soon Everyone Will Be Talking About The Cost Of Food

Last month, ZeroHedge Debates held a roundtable to ask, "How bad will the food inflation mess get?"

Professional subscribers can read the full "Food Inflation & El Niño Evidence Check" here at our new Marketdesk.ai port.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 05:45

The hotel heiress-turned-advocate teamed up with veteran tech journalist Laurie Segall to launch a sprawling 14-part TikTok investigation series

"I didn't know how addictive that stuff was."

"I didn't know how addictive that stuff was."

President Trump claimed the Democrats are “trying to steal” the California gubernatorial and the Los Angeles mayoral primaries – and launched a probe into the state’s sluggish vote count. Trump fumed Thursday over how votes in California are trickling in two days after polls closed – and the results of the elections may not be...