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Aluminum Supply Crisis Is About To Get Worse
Aluminum prices in London are up nearly 17% since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict, as a growing chorus of top commodity desks, including Mercuria, Goldman, JPMorgan, and others, warn that the market is facing a major supply shock.
That disruption, driven firstly by Middle East smelter outages and the Hormuz maritime chokepoint, is now colliding with new concerns that China may be forced to curtail output amid energy-use and emissions inspections, according to Bloomberg.
More color from the report:
Chinese authorities are now moving to rein in that over- production as inventories swell. A smelter in Baise, Guangxi province, has already cut output of molten aluminum, Mysteel wrote, without providing estimates of volumes affected. The steel and oil refining industries will also be targeted, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in a statement on May 13.
Building on production cut risks in China, as it is the world's biggest producer, there is another report from Bloomberg that Guinea, the world's largest bauxite producer, is preparing to limit exports of the ore, threatening flows to China's aluminum industry.
Mines and Geology Minister Bouna Sylla told the outlet that the West African nation will dial back bauxite exports in June after a surge in exports sparked a price slump that the government wants to correct.
"Supply mustn't exceed demand," Sylla said. "We want to regulate the quantity to raise prices back to reasonable levels."
For context, most of Guinea's bauxite is loaded on bulk carriers and shipped to China, where it's first refined into alumina, then turned into the industrial metal aluminum.
The complexity of the aluminum supply shock extends well beyond Gulf disruptions, as we outline in this note, which is why prices in London are trading around $3,673 a ton, the highest since March 2022.
JPMorgan analysts recently warned that the industry is descending into a black hole, or a "metaphorical point of no return," where the "global aluminum market will face a serious and prolonged supply outage," even if vessel flows through the Hormuz chokepoint resume in the near term.
Additional market warnings:
The great aluminum squeeze is underway. Prices are likely going higher.
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The Islamic Terrorist Conquest Of West Africa
Authored by Lawrence Franklin via The Gatestone Institute,
The widened scope and quickened pace of the Islamic State's military operations in the Sahel region -- just below North Africa, roughly from Senegal to Sudan -- threatens to alter the strategic orientation of the African continent. Efforts at countering terrorist operations in the Sahel, such as they were, have evidently failed. As all roads to Mali's capital of Bamoko are now blocked, that country might be the first state to "go under."
On April 25, during a coordinated attack on several Malian cities, Muslim terrorists killed the country's Minister of Defense. The terrorists then drove the Malian Army and its allied Russian mercenaries out of the country's north.
The military juntas ruling Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have proven themselves as ineffective at combatting Islamic terrorist operations as the democracies that they overthrew. The increasing terrorist assaults across the Sahel and the jihadists's determined efforts to take over Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have eroded the sovereignty of these states.
The combat successes of the jihadists in the Sahel in March 2022 precipitated their elevation to the status of "Islamic State Sahel Province" within the hierarchy of the IS, and several other factors have facilitated the growth of the jihadist advance in the Sahel.
The cooling of the once global counterterrorist crusade — following an apparent shift in focus by the world's great power rivalries, as well as fewer resources directed against the terrorist problem — left a vacuum that was adroitly filled by jihadist groups, which has reduced the pressure on Islamic State and Al Qaeda regional affiliates.
Another situation that might have impacted negatively upon the Sahel's overall security is the monumental migratory flow of Africans from sub-Saharan countries who pass through the Sahel to the Mediterranean, and the consequent stress this puts on the Sahel economies.
A third force eroding state sovereignty of Sahel countries is warfare waged by Al Qaeda terrorist affiliates that are rivals of the Islamic State, such as the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM). JNIM also coordinates attacks with the Malian anti-government militia known as the Azawad Liberation Front.
Jihadist violence has become ubiquitous in the Sahel, and recently expanded to include fighting between Islamic State and Al Qaeda. On April 2, a notable clash between these two rival terrorist networks occurred in western Niger.
The Sahel now appears to be the epicenter of global terrorist violence. Sahel's terrorist groups might also be acquiring confidence that they can achieve permanent and more ambitious goals in the near future.
Islamic State units have also been exploiting the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel and in Nigeria's northeastern states, which are already governed under Islamic sharia law. Islamic State probably feels buoyed by its easy success in recent battles with the Nigerian Army.
On April 25, Al Qaeda terrorists conducted simultaneous attacks against several Malian urban areas. Their success might well tempt jihadist fighters to move into major urban areas in northern Nigeria and elsewhere in the Sahel.
An additional worrisome trend indicates that terrorist violence is moving westward to Africa's Atlantic coast.
State control increasingly is being eroded in the Sahel region, despite multilateral efforts to sustain the sovereignty of several states in the Sahel, such as the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) consisting of Chad, Nigeria, Benin, Cameroon, and, until last year, Niger. The MNJTF had made significant strides in halting the advance of the Al Qaeda-affiliated Boko Haram terrorist group, particularly in Chad, but recently the overall scorecard is less conclusive.
The MNJTF is sustained mostly by the continent-wide Organization of the African Union (OAU). While the MNJTF originally planned to field a 10,000-member OAU army, insufficient air cover, poor communications, and logistical problems have reduced the organization's effectiveness.
Another multinational group — the "G5 Sahel" of Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger — proved ineffective after its 2014 launch. Beset by bureaucratic problems, military coups, and lack of adequate commitment by member states, it dissolved in December 2023.
France, the former colonial "mother country" of several Sahel states, has also made a valiant effort to contain the region's Islamist threat. Acting on behalf of a Malian request for military support, France in 2013 dispatched troops to northern Mali in "Operation Serval."
After substantial success, France, along with UN political support, launched "Operation Barkhane" in 2014 to combat Islamist terrorist activity in the Sahel region. The mission ended in 2022, however, when, following military coups, three Sahelian states asked the French to leave. Later, these same three states invited assistance from Russian mercenaries, which has not resulted in any permanent progress on the battlefield.
With the advance of Islamic terrorist control over ever wider swaths of the Sahel, in recent years, US Special Forces teams have been operating in Niger. On October 4, 2017, this deployment resulted in the killing of four US soldiers and a score of Nigerien soldiers in an ambush staged by "Islamic State in the Greater Sahara." More recently, US national security priorities elsewhere seem to have resulted in a diminution of American military involvement in the Sahel.
The steady advance of Islamic terrorist control over territory in the Sahel could soon threaten the sovereignty of West African states on the continent's Atlantic Coast -- just across the ocean from Latin America and the United States.
It is past time for the US to take action to protect not only the vast natural resources in the area, but also to stop even more of Africa from being swallowed up by this expanding jihadist takeover.
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/27/2026 - 03:30Iran Vows 'Swift, Decisive' Revenge After Overnight US Port Attack, As Sides Seek Deal Allowing Each To 'Sell Their Narrative'
- CENTCOM denies that US Navy has officially restarted guiding ships through Hormuz Strait amid fresh tanker explosion and fuel leak incident.
- IRGC says its military shot down an MQ-9 drone and forced an F-35 jet out of Iranian airspace.
- Tehran formally accuses Washington of "ceasefire violation" while warning a final deal is not yet imminent, while Pentagon cites "self-defense" strikes in Hormuz overnight.
- Ayatollah Hajj message: US will "no longer have a safe haven for mischief & the establishment of military bases in the region."
- Teran is demanding "12 billion released now and 12 billion after MOU 30 days runs out to open Hormuz."
Yes 24% · No 77%
View full market & trade on Polymarket
* * *
In a fresh Truth Social post, Trump even bashes the Wall Street Journal, which ironically enough has by and large defended Trump and seems 'pro-' Iran war in terms of their general op-ed stance and coverage...
CENTCOM Denies WSJ Report"Project Freedom has not resumed, and U.S. forces are not currently escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz," US Central Command says in a post on X. This comes after WSJ cited US officials to say that that the mission had restarted, but that reporting appeared premature.
Meanwhile on the negotiations front, an insightful line:
Abdulla Banndar Al-Etaibi, a professor at Qatar University, says any negotiation between Iran and the US requires concessions from both parties to secure a deal.
“This is the hard part,” he told Al Jazeera, noting that both Tehran and Washington have realised that they can’t reach their goals through war. “That’s why they’re [moving] towards more diplomacy.”
“At the moment, it’s about the language, and it’s about how both parties can come out and sell a narrative that they want,” Al-Etaibi added.
'Project Freedom' Officially Back OnWhile it's questionable to what degree US naval patrols of regional waters ever really stopped, US military officials say the navy has restarted escorts to ensure international vessels can safely cross through the contested Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon is already touting some successes, according to a Tuesday update in the WSJ:
The officials told The Wall Street Journal that a Greek supertanker laden with two million barrels of crude was guided by the U.S. Navy, as it crossed the waterway off the Omani coast.
The ship was stuck in the Middle East Gulf since early March and is now heading to India to deliver its cargo.
The protection is a renewed push of "Project Freedom," an earlier U.S. initiative to guide ships through the vital shipping corridor that was halted roughly 36 hours into the operation.
The officials said the Navy plans to help about a dozen vessels including supertankers and container ships to cross through the waterway over the coming days.
However, some serious security incidents involving shipping (possibly involving sea mines?) in the narrow waterway are still unfolding, also with reports of a fuel leakage incident into Gulf coastal waters:
UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 60 nautical miles east of Muscat, Oman, where the master of a tanker reported an external explosion on the port side aft near the waterline.
The crew and vessel are safe, though some bunker fuel was reported discharged into the sea. pic.twitter.com/8CA0JhrYu6
Despite all of these developments, and rising tensions and even last night's US-Israel brief airstrike raid on Bandar Abbas port, the Trump administration is still touting that a final draft deal is just 'days' away. "I think there is strong alignment and agreement on what a preliminary draft should look like," Rubio has said in fresh comments. "It's either going to be a good deal or there isn't going to be one." Tehran has vowing retaliation for the overnight US attack incident.
Israeli leaders are meanwhile vowing they'll prevent a 'bad deal' from being finalized...
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir says the Israeli government will not let Trump sign a “bad deal” with Iran. pic.twitter.com/Ou0lJcnUJd
— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 26, 2026 F-35 Engagement, MQ-9 ShootdownWhile diplomats in Washington and Tehran exchange heavily caveated peace drafts and attempt a breakthrough, the actual conflict theater of the Persian Gulf is telling an entirely different story. The fragile reality of the current ceasefire is on full display, given that after late Monday's US-Israeli action against Iranian vessels at Bandar Abbas port, the IRGC says it opened fire on a US F-35 fighter jet and multiple unmanned aerial vehicles after they allegedly breached Iranian airspace. As part of the engagement, Iran says that it shot down a US MQ-9 drone (not for the first time of the war). The IRGC claims its air defense units successfully "shot down an MQ-9" Reaper drone during the encounter, while the remaining American "aircraft were forced to flee."
This followed immediately on the heels of the United States saying carried out "self-defense" strikes in southern Iran overnight against various targets, including boats attempting to lay mines as well as even missile launch sites. "US forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces," US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins said.
Ceasefire ViolationTehran has warned that the the ceasefire with the US is in jeopardy, with the Foreign Ministry on Tuesday having condemned the latest US "attacks on vessels as a ceasefire violation".
Iran's Foreign Ministry condemns "multiple instances of maritime piracy against Iranian commercial vessels" by the US in the Hormozgan region over the past 48 hours, according to statement. "Hormozgan is the Iranian province that incorporates Iranian ports and waters on the Strait of Hormuz," it said according to Bloomberg, citing state media, in reference to the province which has Bandar Abbas as its capital. Iran "will not leave any acts of wickedness unanswered and will not hesitate in the slightest to defend the sovereignty and territory of Iran," it said.
Prior Planet Labs image of Destruction at Bandar-Abbas amid Operation Epic FurySome analysis of what may be behind this latest direct fire flare-up:
"Given where the strikes actually targeted – this is right next to where Iran would want to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz," Puri told Al Jazeera. "One interpretation of these strikes … is that it is actually the US military demonstrating that Iran will not be able to mass forces exactly at the Strait of Hormuz itself if they want to institutionalize a toll collection and inspection regime and other things."
"Both sides are signaling intent and capability and commitment during these negotiations, and they’re using actions as well as words. Sometimes they’re using actions in place of words," he added.
Ayatollah's New Threat Against US BasesFollowing the engagement, an IRGC military spokesperson issued a blunt warning to Washington against future ceasefire violations, declaring that any new aggression against sovereign territory would be met with a "far more severe" response that would structurally extend "beyond the region."
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has been in hiding, released a fiery written address via his Telegram channel to mark the Islamic Hajj pilgrimage. In the message he put American bases scattered throughout neighboring Gulf nations on notice, declaring that the US will "no longer have a safe haven for mischief and the establishment of military bases in the region."
Khamenei warned regional Arab capitals that playing host to the Pentagon carries with it certain risks. "The nations and lands of the region will no longer be a shield for American bases," Khamenei wrote in the message, even while extending an apparent olive branch of sorts immediate neighbors: "I sincerely and purely invite all Islamic countries and governments to friendship and cooperation."
Meanwhile some latest from Rubio...
JUST IN: Marco Rubio on Iran & The Strait of Hormuz:
"They’re going to be open one way or the other. So they need to be open, what’s happening there is unlawful, it’s illegal, it’s unsustainable for the world, it’s unacceptable. I don’t know of any country in the world that… pic.twitter.com/HgmbRhd27S
Marking the Hajj, the annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, his message included as follows:
Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a message on May 26 calling for greater unity across the Muslim world against the United States and Israel, saying that the chants "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" will become the rallying slogans of Muslims and "the oppressed of the world."
Deal Status & $12 Billion Confidence-Building MeasureAccording to reported leaks detailing the active Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) layout, Tehran's compliance hinges on a strict, phased cash release. A source familiar with the text confirmed that Teran is demanding "12BN released now and 12BN after MOU 30 days runs out to open Hormuz." If Washington refuses to front the initial tranche, the mining operations and blockade in the Strait will remain active. The initial funds release has been described by Iranian officials as a confidence-building measure to move things along toward a final agreement.
The Islamic Republic is further seeking to remind the world that a deal is being pushed forward, but it is not imminent:
An Iranian official says that while "there is no toll" on the Strait of Hormuz, the regime is working to regulate the waterway and that ships wishing to cross will likely be required to make some form of payment.
At a press briefing in Tehran attended by the ABC, the regime issued its first direct response to statements from the United States over the weekend, suggesting a deal to end the war was close and would include opening the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran did say a framework to end the war with the US had been reached, but warned an agreement was not imminent, and its nuclear program was not part of the negotiations.
I don't get how everyone is completely blind to this. US CENTCOM literally admitted it themselves.
"Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines."
Do you lay sea mines when you're planning to wide-open the strait? Watch what they do, not… https://t.co/PotjAg9bjZ
In Lebanon, the National News Agency reported at least 12 civilians were killed during a devastating overnight Israeli strike on the town of Mashghara. Concurrently, Israel’s military has issued a sweeping, forced displacement directive for Nabatieh - a city of 80,000 residents - ordering them to clear out north of the Zahrani River.
On Monday Netanyahu made clear that he had ordered a dramatic expanse of the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Evacuation orders are once again being issued for southern suburbs of Beirut, portending a return to all-out expanded war in the country, also as Hezbollah drones are being sent on northern Israel.
Status of Talks Through the Weekendvia Newsquawk...
- Over the weekend, US President Trump posted that an agreement has largely been negotiated, subject to finalisation between the US, Iran and various Middle Eastern countries, while the final aspects and details of the deal were being discussed, and will be announced shortly.
- He followed up by stating that negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, while he informed representatives not to rush into a deal and that time is on their side.
- Reuters reported that the proposed framework is broken into three stages: 1) formally ending the war, 2) reopening the Strait of Hormuz and 3) opening an extendable 30-day window for broader negotiations on nuclear issues and sanctions relief.
- Axios further reported, citing a US official, that an agreement would involve a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz would be opened, Iran would be able to freely sell oil, and negotiations would be held on curbing Iran's nuclear programme.
- However, a US senior official told Axios that the White House doesn’t expect an agreement to end the war with Iran on Sunday and believes it could take several days for the deal’s approval by Iran’s leadership.
- Elsewhere, Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi travelled to Doha for talks with Qatar's PM.
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Putin Authorizes Debt Relief To Lure New Ukraine War Recruits
On Monday President Vladimir Putin signed a law that effectively wipes clean up to 10 million rubles (approximately $140,000) in unpaid debt for new military recruits and their spouses, at a moment Russia needs more manpower to keep up its grinding 'special military operation' in Ukraine.
The debt exemption applies to any Russian citizen who signs a minimum one-year contract with the military to serve in Ukraine after May 1, 2026. The economic amnesty explicitly extends to an enlisted member's spouse as well - making it more attractive to struggling families.
via War on the RocksThe bill smoothly cleared Russia's parliament earlier this month prior to going to Putin's desk for final authorization. It represents the newest addition to a series of economic incentives designed to keep boots on the ground without triggering a domestic political crisis.
While an official death toll has not been issued or publicly maintained by the Kremlin, estimates commonly suggest deaths in the hundreds of thousands, or else a conservative estimate of high tens of thousands - after well over four-years of the tragic war.
Similar figures are often offered on the Ukrainian side, which even more obviously suffers from a severe manpower crisis, leading to forcible recruitment often through officers nabbing eligible men off the streets.
This fresh Kremlin debt forgiveness policy represents a new, softer and more incentive-based approach to military recruitment inside Russia. Prior 'partial' mobilizations have been deeply unpopular.
Within the opening years of the war, there were reports that hundreds of thousands of draft-age Russian men fled across international borders in order to escape these mobilization waves.
The pro-NATO Atlantic Council has meanwhile highlighted that Russia's military also fills manpower through controversial foreign recruitment methods:
The Kremlin plans to recruit at least 18,500 foreigners to fight in the Russian army in 2026, Ukrainian military intelligence officials claimed in late April. This figure represents a sharp rise in the annual recruitment of foreign nationals as Moscow seeks to continue the invasion of Ukraine amid heavy battlefield losses and domestic mobilization concerns.
Russia’s efforts to enlist foreigners in the country’s military are not new. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began more than four years ago, at least 27,000 foreign nationals from more than 130 countries have signed up for service in the Russian army, according to a new report prepared jointly by Truth Hounds, the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), and regional partners.
The vast majority of these recruits have been drawn from economically deprived regions of the Global South.
In some instances, this happens through deceptive means, such as foreign nationals responding to a job posting in Russia, only to find themselves thrown into Russian boot camp once they sign papers for what they think is another, legitimate occupation or job training.
The conflict and front lines continue to be largely stalemated, with peace talks seemingly no where on the horizon, but Moscow's strategy seems to be based on consistently enduring and making slow gains in this 'war of attrition'.
Tyler Durden Wed, 05/27/2026 - 02:45